Kitchener-Waterloo

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Kitchener-Waterloo

Last Update:
4:47 PM 07/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
4:02 PM 01/10/2003

Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)

Liberal Party:
Sean Strickland

Progressive Conservative:
Elizabeth Witmer

New Democratic Party:
Dan Lajoie

Green Party:

Incumbent:

Elizabeth Witmer

Federal MP:

Andrew Telegdi

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 9796

*ELIZABETH WITMER

27830 54.36%

SEAN STRICKLAND

18034 35.22%

TED MARTIN

3122 6.1%

LOU REITZEL

919 1.79%

JUDY GREENWOOD-SPEERS

836 1.63%

MATTHEW ALBRECHT

202 0.39%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 14 730

Andrew Telegdi

27 132 50.3%

Joshua Doig

12 402 23%

Brian Bourke

8 621 16%

Richard Walsh-Bowers

4 394 8.2%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 126142

1996 114390

1991 102643

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 31055

20-39 40390

40-59 26875

60+ 16075

Avg Household Income
$64447

Labour Participation 70.50%

Unemployment 7.50%

Canadian Citizen
92.56%

Canadian Born 76.61%

Ontario Born 67.51%

Immigrant 22.60%

Visible Minority 11.61%

Aboriginal 0.69%

First Language

English 88405

French 1525

German 4830

Polish 2320

Residence

House 65.89%

Apartment 33.60%

Owned 59.45%

Rented 40.55%

Avg Dwelling Value $164939

Education

University 29510

College/Trade School 23015

Secondary 30795

Authorized by the CFO for the Kitchener Waterloo Provincial Liberal Association


	01/10/03	Student Email:
There is a significant problem with the poll released by the Record. Its statistics rely upon a sample size of only 150 respondents which has a margin or error well over 9%. The Record poll is very negligible and I do not believe it truly reflects the likely outcome of the election. Witmer will take this. Strickland was arrogant and childish at last night's all candidates debate. Any undecided voters will swing towards Witmer.
	30/09/03	Tory in Dixie Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
Ms. Witmer, who declared that the Harris approach is 'dead', should be able to hang on to the seat. The previous poster who noted that a 20 % lead in the polls translates to maybe half that on election day is absolutely correct, and it would take a good 15 point margin for the Liberals to take the riding.
	30/09/03	lrs Email:
I cannot believe Record poll-20% lead- I think Liberals will win based on prov polls- but by 5%- I assume witmer's supports will get out and vore knowing candidate in trouble- my view of all candidates meeting tonight- seems witmer supporters out in full- she was probably best candidate there-Strickland on defensive-but I assume most voters minds made up and Record headlines today- Tories missing all candidate meetings during campaign- assume Kitchener part of riding will go heavily Liberal and Waterloo nearly split- if she loses- will she be a candidate federally next year- and if Alliance and PC get together-might be an interesting race?
	29/09/03	Innocent bystander Email:
You know that a 20% lead amounts to 9.5% in an election. If she loses 10% it will more than likely even things out.
	29/09/03	Kimmo Rautapuro Email: kimmo@gto.net
I have done an informal sign survey...counted some of the signs in the north end of Waterloo. It would appear that RE/Max is far ahead of anyone else. The next nearest signage by volume would be the Liberal ones, followed by Progressive ones. I have seen a few token Democratic ones. There does not seem to be much enthusiasm for sign posting this time.
	29/09/03	Suzanne Email:
This riding will go with Elizabeth. It may not vote Conservative, but it will vote Elizabeth Witmer. Elizabeth has done too much for this community and while people may not necessarily back the leader of the PC's... she will still pull through. Also, people will remember Sean Strickland and his crappy record of running the food bank. He caused a lot of scandal by basically taking food from the Cambridge food bank to prop of the Kitchener food bank to make him look good in the community that was electing him for city council. As far as I am concerned... Waterloo is Witmerloo and that is how it will stay.
	29/09/03	Queer Nation Email:
My prediction is that despite some of the pent up frustration with the Tories, the Liberals have peaked. Former Tory voters will not show up to vote because they think the Liberals are going to win anyway and they can't quite bring themselves to vote Liberal. Or former NDPers will go back to the NDP. This means that some Tories have a chance to hold out in ridings that the Tories normally win, like this one. However, it's going to be close and will be fought riding by riding - all politics being local.
	29/09/03	Maracus Wojoleski Email:
The Record story was full of crap. Even Barry Kay a respected Liberal professor at Laurier went on record decrying the results of the recent Record Poll as 'dubious'. Witmer has done far too much for Kitchener-Waterloo whether it be more doctors, a new cancer centre, new roads, new schools... the list goes on. Moreover, she has been in the community for years advocating for Waterloo Region. In the end, the citizens of KW will not be hoodwinked into believing the Liberal "anything you want you got it" philosophy. In my opinion, Witmer will keep her seat even if the Tory government goes down. I suspect she'll become leader and then Premier in 2007.
	29/09/03	IK Email:
My PC friend from K-W was called in to an emergency meeting this weekend and was told to help "go all out" this week because Witmer has "a lot of catching up to do" (I love inside sources - at least when they're willing to share bad information)! Witmer has lost it for herself with her close ties to the Eves government and she noticed it from the beginning. She's lost the support of teachers, university staff, students, parents who still have children in school... it amounts to a major loss of her regular support. Now the K-W Record has come out with a poll, which I must say did in fact surprise me cause I thought it would in fact be closer, but they came out with a poll giving the Liberals a clear lead in K-W. I think, as odd as it sounds even to me, that we put K-W in the Liberal column and predict that the Deputy Premier will lose her seat (I am happy as a Liberal, but honestly surprised nonetheless).
	28/09/03	Alex Email:
Witmer won by 20% last time, and from what I've seen of people's opinions, that will still be a +10% at least this time around. I'm thinking that that poll was the 20th time out of 20, those numbers simply don't correspond to any reality that I've seen, and I have certainly been looking.
	28/09/03	tb Email:
The KW Record is predicting that Witmer will lose on Oct 2 based upon a poll taken after the debate. All K-W is going Liberal - the Liberal lead in this area is even larger than the provincial polling indicates - Sean Strickland has about 53% support compared to 35% for Witmer.
	28/09/03	Chems Email:
This one should go Liberal. The results from the K-W Record poll released Saturday, Sept. 27: Kitchener-Waterloo: PC - 35% (Witmer) Lib - 53% NDP - 8% Oth - 4%
	28/09/03	Michael Ensley Email: mensley@yahoo.com
Local polls published in the local KW paper show Witmer losing in a landslide.. The Tory gig is up and most if not all cabinet ministers are going down. Time to start switching some predictions to avoid the Election Prediction list being far off on its predicted outcome. The same poll showed all 4 ridings in the area going Liberal.
	27/09/03	Waterloo Region Insider Email:
Too close to call. The K-W Record published a front-page spread in today's paper proclaiming the entire region Liberal red, by wide margins (except Cambridge, which they feel is too close to call). This has been the death-knell for some candidates in the past. Lots of people want to see Witmer and the Tories go, but all of the strategic voters out there feel it may now be safe to vote NDP after all, because she's going down. I think it's a lot closer than the papers say. Add to that a surprisingly strong NDP campaign (by the number of NDP signs compared to past years, Lajoie is picking up a lot of support in the one area riding that elected PC Witmer in the NDP tidal wave of 1990). This could add up to another Witmer victory. This will be an interesting one to watch on election night.
	27/09/03	R.H. Email:
The Kitchener-Waterloo Record reports in its September 27th edition that Elizabeth Witmer is likely to be defeated by Sean Strickland. It was surprising to see Witmer leaving the riding this week to help other Tory candidates when her own seat is up for grabs.
	27/09/03	AL 6-EMAIL_NO = selected Email: andylehrer@sympatico.ca
From the Guelph Mercury: "The (Metroline) poll points to decisive Liberal victories in the ridings of Kitchener-Waterloo and Kitchener Centre, and likely victories in Guelph-Wellington and Waterloo-Wellington, where there is a larger portion of undecided voters. "
	27/09/03	A Email:
The KW Record says Witmer is 20 points behind.
	27/09/03	TM Email:
Liberal Win. Liz Witmer and the Tories are toast. Her campaign is off the tracks and the Kitchener Waterloo Record is saying Strickland will win.
	27/09/03	H.G. Email:
Here's my prediction, based upon travelling through this riding, seeing the signs, and visiting my relatives who live there: A tight squeaker - but in the end a Tory defeat. Witmer will go down like the former Ed. Minister David Johnson during the last election. She has close ties to the community - but her involvement with this very unpopular government with its tuition hikes and scapegoating of the lowly teachers, is too close to deny. Those who have supported her in the past - at both the school board and Queen's Park - have been hurt too much by this government and no amount of pandering will get them back, not even here, in what should be one of the safest Tory seats. Strickland by a nose.
	27/09/03	Chems Email:
With the K-W Record poll showing Witmer is going down big time, it's time to put this in the Liberal column.
	26/09/03	Political Nerd Email: wayneroberts@hotmail.com
Any notion that this riding will go Liberal is simply silly. Elizabeth Witmer is extremely strong in the Kitchener Waterloo community. Barry Kay predicted that this ridign would go NDP in 1990 and Witmer won. He is now predicting it is too close to call. Unfortunately he is ultra Liberal and only wishes this ridign would lean Liberal. Sean Strickland is not an effective debater and Witmer will crush him at the all candidates debate. Election night might be the begining of a large Liberal victory but this riding will be nothing but vicTORY.
	25/09/03	beaker Email:
Word is that Strickland has big sign advantage. Witmer's campaign is not visible and the students at Laurier and Waterloo are beginning to mobilize to unseat her. May not be ready to call this a Witmer loss but could be moving towards a riding to watch on election day.
	24/09/03	James Bow Email:
Stronger than normal support for the Green Party can't be good for the Liberals, here. Pauline Richards is making some connections with voters, here, and that can only help Witmer. The NDP is putting up a surprisingly strong fight, here, too.
	23/09/03	A. Nelson Email:
Elizabeth Witmer should be re-elected by the residents of Kitchener-Waterloo. She is the sole reason why the community now has two new emergency rooms, a new cancer centre (people used to have to travel to London), new long-term care centres, a new cardiac centre, and significant expansions to both St. Mary's and Grand River Hospitals. She has been a Minister since the Tories were first elected, but her priority has remained with the residents of this community.
	21/09/03	BR Email:
Witmer may have a great personality, compassionate ideas and even strong local church connections - but KW constituents are still smart enough to know who she works for. Her role as Education Minister will have only been a hinderance, as local undergraduates from both Wilfred Laurier University and the University of Waterloo are mobilized by their student unions to show up on voting day. These students will not easily forget the endless round of tuition hikes and quality cuts; campus populations are large enough to tip the balance in this university-town election. Regardless of just how far left the community feels like shifting, seeing the Liberals defeat Witmer will be almost symbolic, in a way.
	09/09/03	Tory in Dixie Email: ericbucholz@hotmail.com
Three reasons why Ms. Whitmer should keep the riding. 1) She is a strong MPP, having made a good run for the leadership and established credible red Tory credentials. 2) There is no NDP vote that will collapse, pushing the Liberal over. 3) The riding itself is fairly bedrock, having see Ms. Whitmer elected in 1990.
	04/09/03	M.S. Email:
One of the few safe Tory seats in the province this time. They could end up like their federal cousins in 93 with 2 seats and this would be one of the 2. Witmer is probably the strongest performing cabinet minister in the government, and will win easily. She should have been elected leader of the party.
	04/09/03	Craig Email:
This will be a key pickup for the Liberals, it will probably be one riding heavily pressured by the teacher unions. Insulated? Not at all, she has the education woes pinned on herself, and Sean Strickland will really point that out to the electorate. With the sudden centrist, then extreme-right turn of the government under Eves, everyone will think that all Tories are hard right. The teacher unions are extremely vocal and will do a lot to get the Minister of Education removed. Current prediction: Strickland 47%, Witmer 39%, Lajoie 13%, others 1%.
	03/09/03	James Bow Email:
No matter how the province goes, this one's a hold for the Conservatives. Witmer has a strong personal following, and is heavily insulated, as others have pointed out, from the excesses of the Harris/Eves regime. The rest of Waterloo region may go Liberal red, but Witmer will keep Waterloo blue...which makes things interesting after the election. If the Eves government is reduced to opposition status, Eves won't stay long. Witmer will be well placed for a fight for the Conservative Party leadership (and she'd make a good leader), but she's well to the left of the party she represents.
	09/08/03	Poll Junkie Email:
Witmer will be one of the few Tories to hold on against the Liberal tidal wave. She has some insulation from the worst excesses of the Harris/Eves record. Others like Ecker may not be so lucky. Tory hold with a reduced majority.
	15/05/03	Grizz Email:
I keep saying that voters want a change and I keep making reference to many surprise ridings won by the Liberals in the recent Quebec election. This is one where the voters may surprise us and dump the PC for a Liberal. The Liberals didn't fare too badly in 99 (okay the showing wasn't fabulous either) and they have the advantage of education woes being pinned on the incumbant. As for the NDP, I don't know what D.J. is smoking but having gotten a little over 6% of the vote last time it will take an out right miricle for them to win.
	10/05/03	Craig Email:
The Big Red Machine will steal this one from under Witmer's feet, with the strong help of the teachers' unions. This will be a real shocker, like with then-Education Minister Dave Johnson in 1999, but it will happen. The NDP aren't going to be a real factor. Predicted results: LIB 46%, PC 40%, NDP 9%, Green 3%.
	05/03/03	J.D. Email:
The NDP does not have a sympathy candidate in Dan Lajoie. He's engaging, articulate, and he certainly knows the issues. Witmer the PCs have overstayed their welcome. She's done her damage as Health Minister and Education Minister. Unfortunately for Strickland, McGuinty and the Liberals have made it clear that they're unclear on most policy issues, and K-W voters know it. Lajoie and the NDP by a hair.
	24/03/03	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
An NDP "sympathy candidate" is not a realistic means of whupping Witmer (though it worked for York East's Gary Malkowski in 1990). And the Liberals have recycled their 1999 candidate. High-techy and eggheady, it's Witmer's Waterloo all the way--although one suspects that were it anyone else, the race'd be a lot closer (after all, it was Liberal for ages before Witmer was elected in 1990). Don't think the Waterloonies will pass up the opportunity to elect the future leader of a Tory rump party, should the necessity arrive...
	25/02/03	Sean H. Email: shaberlin48@hotmail.com
This time around a PC win will be a close call. The NDP have an excellent candidate in Dan Lajoie. Dan, a disabled candidate in a wheelchair since age 3, will bring a new perspective to rigors of campaigning. Witmer is vulnerable because of the education portfolio - double cohort and high schools closing in the area. The health portfolio is also open to the "Don't privatize medicare campaign". The MRI opening in KW is going to be run by a private company.
	30/01/03	JJ Email:
KW voters of all party stripes will learn to love the idea of electing the next Leader of the Third Party...
	13/01/03	James Bow Email: james__bow@sitehouse.net
This is perhaps one of the easiest ridings in the Ontario legislature to call. Kitchener-Waterloo has a history of electing popular local candidates who don't necessarily tow the party line. Andrew Telegdi is well liked for standing up to Chretien, and Elizabeth Witmer sits comfortably on the left side of her party. The NDP is not a factor here, and I don't know of many Liberal candidates (Sean Strickland would be the only serious candidate I could see) that could make it much of a campaign. A PC Win.
	21/10/02	Bryan Email: 0bgc@qlink.queensu.ca
I think it would take slightly more than an act of god for the Tories to lose this seat. Witmer is popular, she's the deputy premier and one of the safest Tories in the Province. Look for Tory reelection.
	14/10/02	North Email:
Liz Witmer's riding is one of the safest Tory seats in the province; even a Liberal landslide wouldn't knock her out of K-W.

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