Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Leeds-Grenville

Last Update:
3:20 PM 01/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
25 October 2002



Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
Liberal Party:
Steve Mazurek
Progressive Conservative:
Bob Runciman
New Democratic Party:
Chris Fairon
Green Party:
Jerry Heath

Incumbent:
Bob Runciman

Federal MP:
Joe Jordan

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction
Plurality6083

*BOB RUNCIMAN
23390 53.1%

DON CAMERON
17307 39.29%

JIM MURRAY
2097 4.76%

KEN BLACKBURN
1008 2.29%

BRITT ROBERTS
244 0.55%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality55
Joe Jordan
18 594 39.5%
Gord Brown
18 539 39.4%
John M. Johnston
7 940 16.9%
Martin Hanratty
990 2.1%

Demographic Profile:
Population
200196606
199696284
199190235

(1996 census)

Age
0-1925075
20-3926175
40-5925265
60+19780

Avg Household Income

$52031
Labour Participation64.60%
Unemployment8.40%

Canadian Citizen

98.16%
Canadian Born91.15%
Ontario Born79.26%
Immigrant8.72%
Visible Minority1.32%
Aboriginal0.67%

First Language
English88070
French2450

Residence
House82.02%
Apartment16.72%
Owned74.76%
Rented25.24%
Avg Dwelling Value$129424

Education
University11865
College/Trade School25880
Secondary32070



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30/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
A bedrock Tory seat, that was part of the rump of 17 in 1987 and the rump of 20 in 1990. Runciman runs strong with the riding's small c roots, and would continue to be a fine MPP in the legislature, whether power or in opposition.
01/10/03
Email:
The tide is very likely to change here tomorrow. Dalton's last campaign stop is here.
27/09/03 Craig
Email:
The general trend is Liberal now (especially in Eastern Ontario), but Runciman should survive to stand on the opposition benches now. The social issues (i.e. gun policies) will probably be enough here in this right-wing riding that very nearly went Canadian Alliance in 2000, even though the Liberals will make gains. Current prediction: Runciman 48%, Mazurek 42%, Heath 4%, Fairon 4%, others 2%.
17/09/03 A Tory in Leeds
Email:
This riding is very socially conservative, and the Tories will win easily if the election is about social issues. The Liberals do well on economic issues. I've been doing ride alongs with the candidate, and I've been working phones and canvass teams. In this riding the main issues seem to be gun control, immigration and gay marriage. A PC win, but probably far closer than many seem to think, and probably for the last time. A stronger Liberal candidate would have been able to take the riding but the Libs blew their nomination on an empty suit.
15/09/03 Peter Seville
Email:
It seems curious to me that Bob Runciman would suggest that his experience in politics should be enough to secure our votes in this election.
On the night of our last federal election, after campaigning tirelessly for Stockwell Day, Mr. Runciman publicly chastised the voters of Gananoque, saying that they should be "red-faced" and "ashamed" for not voting the way he thought they should. Mr. Runciman stands by this insult, but now needs their votes. It seems that he never heard about biting the hand that feeds. We should be shaking in our boots.
It was only a few months ago that the Ontario auditor-general reported on some problems found in Runcimanís ministry. Bobís reaction, of course, was to publicly question the motives of the auditor. No experienced cabinet minister, except Bob, would ever attack an auditor for doing his job. After some very harsh words from the auditor and others, Bob thankfully stuffed a sock in it. We should be embarrassed.
One of the funnier gaffes of Bob was when he announced that the OPP had chased an al-Qaeda "sleeper" cell out of Ontario. He had no idea where they went, but at least they werenít in Ontario. Security officials on both sides of the border could only shake their heads in disbelief. Columnists and cartoonists had a ball. Ernie Eves wisely appointed a commissioner of public safety to handle any future emergencies. We should have been worried, but were amused more than anything.
Most recently, Bob waded well over his head into the troubled waters of race relations in Toronto. He managed to insult every black leader with his thoughtless remarks. The Honourable Lincoln Alexander, Canadaís first black Member of Parliament and former Ontario lieutenant governor, said that Runciman "took the cowardís way out" by hurling insults, and not naming names. (Mike Harris was a good teacher.) There were many fine and intelligent people who were deeply offended, and they told us so. Back home, of course, Bobís supporters thought the insults were right on. Bob has yet to tell us what the slur accomplished other than backslaps and high-fives from his friends. I honestly donít believe that most people in Leeds-Grenville want to be viewed as redneck bigots, but itís too late now. Hopefully, before the next tourist season, Bobís slur will have been forgotten. We should be ashamed and disgusted.
11/09/03 J.C.
Email:
Someone once told me that the Conservative candidate could murder someone and still be elected in Leeds-Grenville. That's how blue and unfortunately redneck my riding is. Steve Mazurek has worked damn hard to win and he seems like a genuinely decent and caring person who would be a definite asset to the Liberal ranks at Queen's Park. Sadly, the rich, old seniors, dumb, one-issue hunters, and Bible-thumping homophobes of the riding will ensure a Tory win---even though their candidate will be sitting in opposition. And nearing senior citizen status, I doubt Runciman will want to sit around in an opposition party that could be on that side of the house for an awfully long time. I smell a 2005 by-election!
07/09/03 P. Blancher
Email:
As a former Candidate (Ind. 1995 - Leeds Grenville) I have kept tabs on the local scene since that time. Runciman has been around for over 20 years as the local MPP. After the 2000 federal election, Runicman slapped the faces of some residents in the western areas of the riding (primarily Gananoque) when a majority of the people in that area did not vote for the local resident who ran as the Canadian Alliance candidate (Gord Brown). Runciman was quoted in all local press in the riding that people in Gananoque should be ashamed they did not support their hometown boy.IN the last month or so, there have been some more problems though. Residents of the municipality of Edwardsburg-Cardinal (amalgamated under the threat of the Province coming in and mandating it), located on the eastern extremity of the riding, were trying to push through a vote to de-amalgamate the municipality. Runciman told the residents he did not support that measure.
Then there is the large mental hospital in Brockville. Millions of dollars have been spent converting and building a new Corrections facility for Mental patients. But now, the remainder of the facility run by the Royal Ottawa Hospital may be closed, under cutbacks to the ROH's budget. Originally this was planned for and the staffs laid off from BPH would be hired by this new facilty. However it has now come to light that Corrections workers get first choice of the jobs in the new facility, with whatever is left over going to new-hires.
Brockville has seen a lot of plant closures in the last four years, the biggest being SCI (formerly BrockTelecom), a contractor for NorTel. Big plans were announced for a new themepark-racetrack-slot machine facility in Brockville (1000 Islands Fantasia) backed by Toronto developer Anton Stephens and some other investors. This was to create 2-3000 permanate full and part time jobs. However after the group made their application, the province put a moritorium on new licences for Horse tracks and slot machines for 1 year, just after the 1000 Islands Fantasia application was approved by the Federal Government and went to the Province.
While the Liberal candiate has been working the riding for the last year, and doing quite well (with the backing of the Federal MP Joe Jordan) I feel that in the end, even with areas of the riding feeling neglected by Runciman, the core of his vote has always been Brockville, and therfore will win the riding. It will be a very close election so the Liberal Candiate might just win. He has been getting a lot of mileage out of the possible BPH closing.
07/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: ericbucholz@hotmail.com
This is once again staunch Tory territory that saw Runciman keep the seat during 87 and 90. This should not change now, given the deep and strong conservative roots of the riding.
08/08/03 Craig
Email:
Thinks were going along smoothly in the PC camp, until Bob Runciman called blacks 'the main cause of crime' (maybe not exactly that but something similar). Even though this riding has one of the lowest minority population in Ontario, and this very nearly went Alliance in the last federal election, the electorate will definitely not take the issue lightly. Dalton McGuinty is not far away, and he will try to spread some resources here (although he will already have most of Eastern Ontario in the bag), so stay tuned. Current prediction: Runciman 47%, Mazurek 44%, Fairon 5%, Heath 3% (but the lead is definitely not secure based on potential backlash).
12/05/03 Grizz
Email:
A popular PC incumbant and a right wing voting tradition. It would take one heck of a Liberal tidalwave to wrench this one from the PC's grasp.
28/04/03 IanB
Email:
I think Bob Runciman will win the next election. He's hung on through tougher Tory times (the '87 disaster and the '90 disappointment) and there's no indication that he won't this time. MP Joe Jordan (whose father and predecessor Jim was defeated by Runciman in the '87 election) pretty much owes his seat in the Commons due to vote splits among the Alliance and the Tories and Leeds-Grenville shows definite small-c conservative leanings both federally and provincially. Runciman will win, although he might find himself in a similar situation to 1987 -- as a member for the third party.
05/03/03 mR. aNDERSON
Email:
When the Tories were washed out everywhere and reduced to third party status Runciman still won. He will prevail.
15/03/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
For such an "unassailable" PC icon, Runciman turned in a surprisingly weak electoral performance in 1999; was it Tory traditionalists' rumbling discomfort with the party's rightward slant? (True, Runciman's a right-winger; but presumably this was hitherto tolerated, rather than endorsed per se.) It may take a Runciman retirement to kick this into gear, but Leeds-Grenville has the potential makings of another Northumberland; that is, a one-time bastion of Tory-blue staunchness that, thanks to retirees, yuppies, etc, is moving toward more of a swing-y centre. But as long as Runciman sticks in there, to call it anything but Tory now would be jumping the gun--and remember: Runcy supported Eves...
16/01/03 A. Hudson
Email:
Hold the horses on this one. While MPP Runciman has been a gentleman, a consummate parliamentarian, and the elected representative for this riding for some time, I read the Leeds-Grenville papers. The Liberal candidate, Steven Mazurek, was nominated some time ago, has been out on the door steps, a successful private business man, and a surprisingly well-connected resident on many fronts (business, education, health, recreation). In conversation with many, very diverse people of this riding (I worked in the area over a number of years, and have new family in the area) it's clear that he's making some headway. Hard work, and a general Liberal tide might lead to the major upset of the province. If MPP Runciman chooses not to run again, this would be the race I'd watch on election night.
18/01/03 Kingston Whig Standard
Email:
ďI wouldnít say [Iím] confident, Iím optimistic. I donít think it is going to be an easy election.Ē Bob Runciman, announcing he will run for re-election
23/10/02 Burke
Email:
This will be an easy win for the Tories, especially if Bob Runciman seeks re-election. The federal liberals barely held this riding in 2000 and the Tories won with a plurality here in 1999. This is strong Tory country and is unlikely to change...


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