Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

London North Centre

Last Update:
4:47 PM 07/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
3:30 PM 01/10/2003



Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
Liberal Party:
Deb Matthews
Progressive Conservative:
Dianne Cunningham
New Democratic Party:
Rebecca Coulter
Green Party:
Dan Bergeron

Incumbent:
Dianne Cunningham

Federal MP:
Joe Fontana

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction
Plurality1709

*DIANNE CUNNINGHAM
18320 40.21%

*MARION BOYD
16611 36.46%

ROGER CARANCI
9518 20.89%

ANDREW J. JEZIERSKI
466 1.02%

JEFF CULBERT
366 0.8%

ROBERT METZ
156 0.34%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality13 733
Joe Fontana
22 795 51.5%
Nancy Branscombe
9 062 20.5%
Lorie Johnson
7 305 16.5%
Colleen Redmond
3 936 8.9%

Demographic Profile:
Population
2001107672
1996104291
1991102470

(1996 census)

Age
0-1924075
20-3936455
40-5924380
60+19385

Avg Household Income

$60261
Labour Participation64.80%
Unemployment10.70%

Canadian Citizen

94.33%
Canadian Born78.74%
Ontario Born69.41%
Immigrant20.60%
Visible Minority9.31%
Aboriginal1.62%

First Language
English83925
French1315
Polish2160

Residence
House53.27%
Apartment46.30%
Owned48.24%
Rented51.76%
Avg Dwelling Value$164016

Education
University27940
College/Trade School22290
Secondary28370



Authorized by the CFO for the London North Centre Provincial NDP Association
01/10/03 DK
Email:
I predict a Dianne Cunningham upset, not because I want to see it, but rather because I think there is a lot of confusion among the ranks of strategic voters. I think that although the anti-Tory sentiment is strong in London North-Centre, it's not clear whether the Liberals or the NDP has a better chance of beating Cunningham. It will be interesting to see what happens in this riding on election night - I wouldn't be surprised to see the Tory incumbent come up through the middle and retain her riding.
01/10/03 Garth Brasseur
Email: garth_7ca@yahoo.com
Another seat where past history should mean an NDP win. The party is up 35-50% in the polls over last election. This increase in vote has traditionally been focused in ridings where the party has a chance to win. However, there is the complicating factor of a Tory candidate who might be viewed as having a chance to win. This might mitigate against that somewhat as strategic voting might be a consideration of some left-leaning voters. The overall provincial picture being presented by the media/parties right now convinces me that the NDP should win this seat.
01/10/03 The Sauce
Email:
There are still a few ridings where the Liberals and the NDP will split the vote and let the Tories win it. This is one of them. Coulter has run a very strong campaign but she can't win this riding. Mathews has not run as strong a campaign as people thought she might and didn't establish herself as the only real alternative to Cunningham. You'll see that Coulter and Mathews will take each other out and Cunningham will win with only 38% of the of the vote.
01/10/03 Darcy
Email: darcyhiggins@canada.com
NDP is doing much stronger than last election. PCs fallen like a brick and Libs have to far to catch up. Howie's minority gov. message may resonate. Time to call this one NDP (will be close).
01/10/03 The Big Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
This is where I think the NDP will make a gain in this election. It is for sure a close 3 way race, and had the NDP not run a strong candidate my bet would have been on a Liberal win. That not being the case, I'm going to say the NDP are going to slide up the middle and it'll be the one gain they make on the ridings they already have.
29/09/03 Mike Sloan
Email: mikesloan1@hotmail.com
By now (Sept 29), Cunningham knows she's done. Matthews will win in the north section of the riding (Adelaide and Fanshawe Pk. Rd,) but it would appear Coulter is going to win the old north, old south and downtown sections of the riding. However, it's going to be close. I suspect Howard Hampton may come through here again.
29/09/03 AlanSmithee
Email:
I'd like to point out something about the Free Press survey was conducted. 100 people were surveyed in the LNC riding to come up with the results on the front page of the paper, or less than 1 person per polling area. About 30% were recorded as undecided, meaning that the size of the sample is down to about 70 people. 50% of 70 is 35, meaning that the Free Press called the LNC riding for Deb Matthews based upon the responses of 35 people! I'd like to know where those 35 people live - if they're all in Old North or downtown then it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if the poll showed a huge lead for Deb. Conversely, if the Free Press has asked only people in Masonville then it would have shown a huge lead for Dianne. The sample size is simply too small for the poll to mean anything. The Liberals will win London West and Elgin-Middlesex-London, while LNC and London-Fanshawe will be close. But LNC is not a bellwether riding; it has voted consistently PC since 1988, and I believe it will do so again in 2003.
28/09/03 Andrew Cox
Email:
Liberal gain. A London are survey by the Free Press show the Grits taking all four London seats by wide margins. (Lib 54%, PC 29%, NDP 17%). The pollster specifically said London North Centre should go Liberal. These numbers are supported by the latest Ipsos-Reid regional breakdown that shows Lib 49%, PC 33%, NDP 13% in Southwest. Deb Matthews is going to Queen's Park.
27/09/03 R.H.
Email: Ryan Hoy
Dalton McGuinty has made several stops in London during the campaign and it looks like it was certainly worthwhile. On September 27, The London Free Press released the results of a poll it sponsored of the four London ridings that shows a Liberal sweep is about to hit the region. The poll conducted by Acumen Research Group following the leaders' debate shows the Liberals with 53% support in London, the Tories with just 28%, and the NDP with 16%. When asked if London is about to turn Liberal red, Acumen president and pollster, Rod Skinkle, said, "It's a slam dunk." In this riding, Cunningham is far behind Matthews and barely ahead of Coulter, according to the article.
27/09/03 Mark Renaud
Email: mark0562@attcanada.ca
The NDP has a great candidate who has been working this riding for over a year. The anti-PC vote may split 50-50 and will push Dr. Coulter into the winning column. You also have to factor in the student vote, (this riding contains UWO), which breaks more for the NDP. This riding is one of a few targetted by the NDP and has all the NDP heavy hitters in there from across the country. Polls always over-represent actual support and this coupled with the NDP focus means an NDP win.
27/09/03 Gerry Kennedy
Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
If the poll published in the London Free Press today is accurate (and I see know reason to believe it is not), Deb Matthews is headed to Queen's Park. In light of the province-wide downward trend against the Tories, it is very unlikely that Dianne Cunningham will even secure a third of the vote meaning a vote split is impossible. Deb Matthews has a better chance to win that Rebecca Coulter so Deb Matthews will be the new Petersen at the legislature considering Tim is probably going to be one of few 905 LIberal candidates who won't win.
27/09/03 TM
Email:
Studio 2 Lists London North Centre as a riding the Tories are going to loose. Rebecca Coulter has been THE reason that Diane's campaign has no gas. The London Free Press, a conservative minded paper has announced that Cunningham will win. Coulter has won all of the debates and has the momentum of the NDP. This PC/NDP swing riding will swing back to the NDP.
27/09/03 JW Bennett
Email: jbennett@execulink.com
New Poll in the London Free Press today that has polled individual ridings in the city states that Dianne Cunningham is at least 20 points behind Deb Matthews and struggling to stay ahead of the NDP's Rebecca Coulter. I'm changing my forecast on this seat from a Conservative Hold to a Liberal Gain.
27/09/03 Craig
Email:
Dianne Cunningham is fading, Deb Matthews is holding her own and Coulter is as strong as Marion Boyd. This means that Coulter should come out on top of this close race and most likely take the critic role that Cunningham had. I think that the NDP vote in 1999 will be virtually unchanged, but some Tory votes will become Liberal votes, meaning the NDP total will be enough to win. Current prediction: Coulter 36%, Matthews 31%, Cunningham 29%, Bergeron 2%, others 2%.
26/09/03 David
Email: penyberth@hotmail.com
Here is my analysis: Cunningham runs a few points below the Tories, generally: she actually needs to hold ALL her votes to win here, and the Tories are down province wide by 10-15 per cent. Sure, there's no Marion Boyd, but by all accounts the NDP candidate is as credible. All that can save Cunningham is if NDP voters actully switch to the Liberals. If it didn't happen last time it won't happen this time, with the Tories almost sure to lose. Last time, McGuinty made a late stop in this riding to pull away NDP votes and deliver it to Cunningham. He should not do that again. If the Tories simply lose 10 per cent, the Liberals gain 10 per cent, and the NDP simply holds its vote, as the recent polls would indicate, both province-wide and in the South West generally, it's MPP Coulter.
25/09/03 SJM
Email:
The leadership debate is over, Dalton McGuinty wins that by default. Expect the Liberals to be sweeping the province. I expect the vote to go to Mathews now. In 1999 a no-name Liberal candidate got 9518 votes. And two heavy weights slugged it out. Expect the Liberals to gain some votes from Cunningham and plenty of the '99 Boyd votes. I would be surprised if Cunningham keeps the seat.
24/09/03
Email:
This should be a very interesting three way race and could be very interesting on election night. The provincial wide swing from the Tories to the Liberals should undo Cunningham: this should pull her at least down to the low 30s, and unless the NDP and Liberals perfectly split the other votes, this should be enough to unseat her. Whether it goes NDP or Liberal is a bit tougher guess. I am going to guess Liberal on the assumption that the NDP vote last time had a lot to do with Boyd. So I will guess Liberals 38%, PC 30%, NDP 30%.
23/09/03 Lawrence Meadows
Email: meadowsl@sympatico.ca
Diane Cunningham has been a stalwart mpp and I think she will retain her seat, although it will be close.
23/09/03 Wise Guy
Email:
Now the Globe and Mail, the London Free Press, the Toronto Star and the National Post have called this riding too close to call, and Rebecca Coulter a star candidate. Cunningham's support is slipping. Londoners feel she has let them down. Matthews lacks expertise and competence. Coulter is strong, visible, well-respected and dazzling Londoners by winning the sign battle, all-party debates and media show. There's an undeniable buzz in London about how impressive Coulter is. This one's going to be close, but I see the two girls from old north splitting their vote, and Coulter sneaking up the middle.
20/09/03 lrs
Email:
due to divided opposition in race and fact Tory won in 1999 with tories at just over 20%( i know seat is slightly different)- Tory Mpp would seem to run a ahead of party- if Tories lose here- Tories at 10-15 seats? Tory hold
19/09/03 Spice Girl
Email:
I have to write off the NDP chances in London North Centre because if they had any chance to win this riding, Marion Boyd is enough of a party loyalist that she would have run again to help her party out. Rebecca Coulter is nowhere near the same quality candidate as Boyd was and with the NDP stalled at 12 per cent in the polls again, there's no reason to think they should even get the same level of support NDP got in 1999. So this ends up being a competition between Deb Mathews and Diane Cunningham. Mathews has every reason to believe that she'll do much better than Roger Caranci did in 1999. That would be realistic. What isn't realistic is to believe that Mathews will pick up enough support from the NDP to get close to Cunningham. People in London don't always agree with Diane but they still respect her enough to give her another term. The Liberals will move from third place to second place but the Tories will still win it.
18/09/03 Dennis
Email:
This riding should rightfully go to the Liberals and Deb Matthews. She is head and shoulders above Diane Cunningham who is choosing to stay and fight but on a sinking ship. Some Union leaders believe NDP is strong in the area but they are thinking of Marion Boyd - strategic voting etc... Remember this riding is much larger than previously and Boyd, as strong as she was, only took a part of it. The majority of 'today's riding' riding went to Cunningham back when the rest of the Province was still backing Peterson, and then later when the NDP swept the area and Diane was almost the lone Tory standing. So, prediction strongly in favour of Deb who is reported in the media across the province as a contender who in power will definatly be a minister with portfolio.
18/09/03 AlanSmithee
Email:
Rebecca Coulter is a sparkplug and a great candidate. From what I saw from the recent all-candidates meeting, she'd make a good MPP. But! Marion Boyd won in London Centre in 1995 because of the NDP sweep, plus the NDP's biggest support in London is downtown and the East End. The old London Centre riding divided up the city to perfectly suit the NDP, but in 1999, half of the NDP's support had been redistributed to London-Fanshawe. The London North-Centre riding includes Masonville and the North End, which is one of the biggest Tory strongholds in the province; remember, they elected Dianne in 1990 against the Bob Rae sweep. With two strong left-wing candidates to split the vote and with the north part of LNC being one of the biggest Tory areas around, I'll pick Dianne Cunningham in a cakewalk.
17/09/03 Blue Baron
Email:
Many people have been dismissing the Matthews campaign. I don't see how people can logically do this? I have been reading that Matthews has been involved with campaigns for decades. I would think any one that was co-chair of two provincial campaigns would not only have the contacts but the resources to build a strong and competent campaign. The signs are out there, they are large and they are mostly on people's lawns. Not like the Tory's. They are also not falling down like the NDP's. On another note, I have seen Matthews out on the street with a sizable crew, the other canadidates have not been seen. The Liberals look like they have a solid base that will give them the momentum to pull out a squeeker of a win on election day.
13/09/03 GK
Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
Let's call London for Bentley, Ramal and Cunningham. 1) Coulter is no better of a candidate than Boyd. In fact, she's worse. 2) NDP have done nothing to boost profile that would suggest any gains. 3) Liberals are putting all resources into London West and London-Fanshawe. This is very smart. They will go 2/3 in London when spreading even risked an 0/3. 4) This is presumably Dianne's last campaign. It would be seen as mean-spirited for such an undeniably well respected politician to end a long political career in defeat.
16/09/03 The Big Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
This is the one London area riding that I can not predict at this time. Unlike the other areas where I feel the Liberals will win, the strength of the NDP candidate makes it too tough to call. I don't feel the NDP will win here but they could steal enough votes from the Liberals to allow a Tory win. Stay tunned to this one....it will be close...
14/09/03 Chris M
Email:
Despite the NDP claims, their candidate is an Ďalso raní in this riding. The NDP support from í99 was based on an incumbent battle combined with a limited Liberal campaign to defeat Dianne. This NDP support did not follow to the new NDP candidate in the current election. The most visible evidence of the lack of support is the NDP campaignís lack of funding, as shown by the use of only one support poll to hold up their signs in order to save money. These signs are already in a state of disrepair and it doesnít appear that they have the funds or the resources to keep them up. Simply put no money = no support. The real contest in this riding is as the local and national press have billed it a marquee match up, between Liberal and Tory heavyweight candidates. So far it appears that the Liberal Deb Matthews has the upper hand, she has been able to generate a lot of positive media coverage and has been able to find a lot of sign location on private property. While the Tory Dianne Cunningham has non-existent or negative media reports, and it appears she has been forced to use public property for most of her signs. At this point in the campaign, Iím giving the advantage to Deb Matthews and the Liberals in London North Centre.
10/09/03 El Predicto
Email:
You have to hand it to the NDP. Here they are in London North-Centre, without Marion Boyd who was the only reason they came second last time. Their party is running at the same bottom end level of support (12%) as they finished up with in 1999 and they're running an unknown candidate. Yet will all this going against them, there are still NDP supporters who dream they have any chance of knocking off Diane Cunningham. Let's get one thing straight right off the bat. Rebecca Coulter is going to finish third in this riding just like her party is going to finish third in Ontario. The Liberals can't win this riding either because David Peterson is still political poisen in London and Deb Mathews can't escape it. With the Tories neck in neck with the Liberals, Diane Cunningham will keep her riding without breaking a sweat.
07/09/03 JW Bennett
Email:
I agree with the sentiment expressed previously on this page that Dianne Cunningham is likely to hold on here. The Liberals stand better chances of winning in London West and London Fanshawe. As for the notion that Ms Coulter could prevail for the NDP, I submit that this is the seat that Marion Boyd, former NDP Education Minister and Attorney General Contested in 1999 against Ms Cunningham, and held the same advantages of incumbency (they were running against each other both as sitting members due to redistribution) and still came up short. I simply cannot envision anything but a Tory victory here.
05/09/03 Joe Vision
Email:
Half page article in the Toronto Star praising her, a campaign that is visible, lively, full of people of all ages -- watch another upset here folks. This one's going to Rebecca.
21/08/03 Kippers for Breakfast
Email:
The Liberals are going to take London West from the Tories in this election and they might have a chance to take London-Fanshawe. However, Diane Cunningham is sure to hold on to her riding for the Tories. The Liberals know where they can win and that's why they've been throwing everything they have into London West for Chris Bentley. Money, volunteers and Dalton McGuinty have been sent to help out there. There are only so many good campaign team members in London and they'ver gone to the other two ridings where chances are better for victory. Diane Cunnighham has the best Tory organizers in London working for her and it shows. When the numbers come in on electin night, Cunningham will win by at least 4500 votes.
12/08/03 Frozen Toast
Email:
Why do people keep saying that university students in London are going to vote against Diane Cunningham. Anyone who knows Western knows the students there are generally the most small "c" group in any school in Ontario. It's well knows that the Conservatives have always had the biggest club of the three parties at Western. It's usually at least 5 times the size of the Liberal and NDP student clubs put together. Besides that, London is in much better shape to deal with the overflow of first year students than other cities. The truth is that Diane Cunningham will get lots of student support to go with her overwelming support in the London community. This one is a no brainer. Cunningham cannot lose.
11/08/03 WD
Email:
John Ivison profiled this race in today's National Post. He's cautiously calling this one for Deb Matthews, whom he says is not only outworking Cunningham on the ground, but capitalizing on the whole "need for change" zeitgeist.
24/07/03 Call Me Shades
Email:
It's not surprising that RH is the first Liberal in 2003 to say that Deb Matthews is going to defeat Diane Cunningham. As for saying the Liberals have the momentumn right now, that isn't quite true. The gap between the Liberals and Tories is actually getting smaller as the summer goes by. I'm starting to think the Liberals peaked too soon, again. Diane Cunningham has proven for years that she is one of the most classy members of the Ontario legislature. Deb Matthews should be worried about trying to hold off Rebecca Coulter so she doesn't finish third. Deb Mathews biggest claim to fame is that she's related to David Peterson. That costs her votes in London where they will never forget how arrogant Peterson was when he was in office. So sit back and watch Cunningham blow away her competition and win with ease.
21/07/03 R.H.
Email:
Dianne Cunningham better hope the election isn't called as first-year university students land on crowded campuses where they are forced to try and squeeze themselves into tiny dormitory rooms. The Tories attempt to declare that all is well where the double cohort is concerned was yet another plank in their pre-election ploy to clear the decks for Premier Eves to drop the writ back in the spring. Well, it won't be long before students and their parents discover that the Tories have mismanaged yet another crisis that they themselves created. While there is no doubt that this race will be a close one, voters may remember that an arrogant Cunningham told the press back in the spring that she was in favour of a spring election because she wanted her summer off. She may end up with all four seasons of the year off unless the Tories' central campaign is able to chip into the Liberal momentum once the writ is dropped.
18/07/03 Lizard
Email:
I can guarantee you one thing. Rebecca Coulter is NOT going to win this riding for the NDP no matter how hard Trevor wishes she had a chance. Deb Mathews is going to have the honour of finishing second to one of the finest people sitting in the Ontario legislature today. Diane Cunningham is represented the people of London well and we don't need a newspaper to tell us that.
16/07/03 Trevor
Email:
Just to correct yet another Tory factual inaccuracy - the London Free Press did not rank cabinet ministers, Christina Blizzard, a notoriously right-wing Sun columnist did. And she gave Dianne an inflated grade thanks to a superficial analysis of the state of post-secondary education in Ontario, and because she believed that the double cohort problems were fixed. Bribing students to not take residence rooms - yeah, sure sounds fixed. Over 50% of students did not get into their first choice - yeah, sure sounds fixed. Second highest tuition fees and second lowest funding in Canada - enough said. The Tories should stop spending so much time in their basements on their computers going through all the ridings in the province and weakly suggesting that the Tory in question will win. Talk to some voters in London North Centre, guys. The tide is shifting, Dianne's meek attempts to buy votes aren't winning any and Rebecca's profile is really high. She's being seen and people are impressed. Rebecca is going to win this one.
03/07/03 The Speaker
Email:
Just an interesting piece of information. The London Free Press recently provided an assessment of all Ontario cabinet ministers. Dianne Cunningham was one of only two ministers to receive an "A" (the other being Tony Clement). Though I don't mean to suggest that this study somehow carries scientific significance, I believe it to be an accurate reflection of the generally accepted view of Dianne as one of the most competent ministers Eves has. She was elected in a by-election during the height of Peterson's popularity, survived the NDP sweep, and is therefore well known and well respected in London. It would take a serious contender to knock her out of this riding, and I don't see how either Matthews or Coulter qualify as such.
28/06/03 The Hulk
Email:
If the NDP are really lucky, they'll hold on to the nine seats they have in the Ontario legislature. Nothing more. Diane Cunningham has put in years of service to the people of London and this will not be forgotten when the election comes. The Liberals and NDP can waste time dreaming of a victory here but it will be Diane Cunningham who will hold the victory party.
21/06/03 Slim Shady
Email:
Diane Cunningham is going to take all the credit for finding enough spaces for the double co-hort. I know other people will say that there will be some crowding, but everyone gets a space and that's what really matters. London North Centre is still Cunningham country and she'll be re-elected by a wide plurality. Deb Mathews will be a weak second with Rebecca Coulter a bad third.
05/06/03 Bob's Your Uncle
Email:
Believing that university students will make a difference in any campaign is complete nonsense. Look at the last twenty years. People under 25 don't vote any more and the Tories have made it even harder for university students to cast a ballot. There will be no enumeration for Western students living off campus so they won't be on the voters list. That means they won't know where to vote. Even if they did know where to cast a ballot, they would have to have proof they live at their address to vote. It's just too much trouble. Besides that, believing the majority of students will vote for the NDP is misguided. Diane Cunningham will be re-elected and university students will not play a role.
02/06/03
Email:
As the election will be held when the students are here... lets put it like this: Are students likely to save a Tory in an ultra-marginal seat where they could easily have one of their own? Let me think...no.
31/05/03 thepraetor
Email: thepraetor@hotmail.com
As someone who was involved in the politics of London for the nine years I lived there (1986-1995), and am still in contact with a few people there, it sounds like all three parties are confident their candidates can win. There is little doubt that the close fight of 1999 was due to two high-profile candidates (Diane Cunningham vs. Marion Boyd). It seems to me that Cunningham, now that her opponents are both lesser known may have the "name" advantage and, unless the Tories are eviscerated provincewide, she will likely hang on. However, I have been told that both Liberal and NDP candidates are working the doors hard and this could make a difference. Ultimately, this is a riding that will likely go with the party that wins the province ... unless someone makes a serious mistake.
31/05/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
To all re Coulter and the NDP: remember that thanks to Marion Boyd and the fact of an endorsed NDP vs PC incumbent race, LNC's circumstances in 1999 were exceptional--if you factored Boyd out of the race, the Liberals at 36% and the NDP at 20% would have come closer to the seat's "natural" profile. (It's no accident that 1999's two most serious PC-NDP incumbent donnybrooks--here and in Niagara Centre--saw the worst Liberal percentages.) And even if the NDP vote across Ontario reaches into or beyond high teens, it won't rise the same everywhere. Thus, LNC and maybe Hamilton West, where incumbents no longer factor in, are at the top of the list for NDP percentages falling against a province-wide grain. So a simple extrapolation from the 1999 tally won't work here--arguably, London-Fanshawe will go NDP before LNC. Not that NDP has no chance; memories of Marion Boyd will see to that. But be cautious--and remember that prior to 1990, the notion of London as an! "NDP stronghold" would have been absurd...
30/05/03 Beanie Baby
Email:
Diane will prevail. She withstood Marion Boyd, she'll do it again. The double cohort issue seems to be disappearing; if there actually are enough spots in post secondary education who wants one, it will be a huge feather in Diane's cap. She'll be back.
28/05/03 Rob D.
Email:
The Tories are now planning on a fall election and that will help candidates in university ridings, especially those with an academic background such as Coulter. She can push a strong "get out the vote" drive among supportive students who will be living in the riding for the school year.
26/05/03 Cowboy Bob
Email:
Anyone who lives in southwestern Ontario knows full well that the NDP peaked in 1990 and have dropped out of sight since. Diane Cunningham is one of the few Conservatives who still have personal popularity in the region. Deb Mathews has the David Peterson connection but that cuts both ways. Some like to remember the Peterson days while others don't. Either way it's not enough for Deb to beat Diane. I don't know why this Grizz from Quebec is commenting on an Ontario election?
23/05/03 Grizz
Email:
Reality Check has a very good point in that this area is becoming more conservative than in the past. However I caution that number crunchers are often caught explaining why their predictions did not match the election results (as I believe was the original purpose for this website). I could use the Quebec election (once again) as an example, where number crunchers (including this site) claimed a Liberal minority, however I'll point to Tony Blair's victory over John Major. The number crunchers at the time claimed a close race, but Blair won a landslide. Why? Every indication was that there was no reason for the population to want a change in government, yet the did. Reason was that Major and the Conservatives were there too long and the people felt the party was banal and wanted a change. Many feel the same way right now in Ontario, and we're not talking about just educators, citizens of Walkerton or card carrying NDPers, but people that could vote PC. Now this in mind, people are creatures of habit and will go back to old voting patters (as is begining to be seen across the country with federal by-elections), meaning older residents of the riding would vote NDP. Newer "right-leaning" residents would be more likely to vote Liberal, making it a 3 way race. So I checked my reality, as in politics reality changes very quickly, and I stand by my call for now. For the record, I have never been "away at school in Quebec". I am currently, "away at school in Ontario".
23/05/03 Crystal Ball
Email:
Looking at the poll in the National Post today showing the NDP dead last at 11 per cent, it looks like Rebecca Coulter is not going to give Diane Cunningham any competition. I would think Deb Mathews now looks like she'll be the one in second place. I have to say that at no time did I ever think either Coulter or Mathews really was a threat to Cunningham.
21/05/03 Reality Check
Email:
Grizz should pay attention to what the number chruncher had to say. Both Grizz and Craig need a reality check. While Grizz was away at school in Quebec, London is becoming much more of a conservative town. The people moving into the city work either in the insurance business or high tech. Not a left wing crowd. Marion Boyd realized that London was moving to the right. That's why even though the party leaned on her to run again, Boyd knew she couldn't win and stayed out. To believe that an unknown like Coulter could do better than former cabinet minister Boyd is simply dreaming in technicolour. As mentioned before, by a number of people, the NDP and Liberals will split the vote and Cunningham wins again. Case closed.
17/05/03
Email:
NDP gain. The Tories are imploding, and although the Grit vote will go up here by about 10%, the NDP are 4% higher than in 1999 and should gain this seat. If its a terrible night for the Tories, Cunningham might come third.
15/05/03 Grizz
Email:
I would like to state that I agree with Craig that NDp support is solid and the Liberals will gain at the PC's expense. This will allow the NDP to slip up the middle and win this one. I also have to comment on ARL's statement about student's voting NDP. Assuming it's a September election (recent reports are that Ontarians could be going to the polls in June), students don't generally turn out in large numbers, so any NDP win will not be from UWO students parading to the polls wearing orange sweaters. Secondly, students not from the riding vote in their home riding, so those that actually do vote will have their votes spread accross the provence. FYI, students need not go home to their riding to vote, they can vote via mail-in ballot (I happen to be a Montrealer doing my grad studies at U of Windsor, I voted in the Quebec election by mail-in ballot).
10/05/03 Craig
Email:
Just for clarification: I think most of the old NDP support should hold up (with a few pickup votes here and there) - and the Liberals will be picking up most of their new votes from the Tories (not the NDP) so that is where the 40% comes in.
06/05/03 Number Cruncher
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Looking at Craig's prediction, it just doesn't add up. The NDP only got 40 per cent of the vote in 8 ridings last time as a third place party. The NDP are back in that same position this time. It seems very unlikely that if Marion Boyd could only get 36 per cent of the vote in 1999 that a lesser knows candidate like Rebecca Coulter could top that. There is a much better chance that the Liberal vote could increase from the 20 per cent they got last time. That would cut into the opposition vote and would reduce the NDP level of support. The numbers indicate a vote split helping Cunningham win.
05/05/03 D.T.
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I think AHL better go knock on some doors - very few people are voting Tory in London North Centre and a lot of people really respect Rebecca Coulter and her work.
03/05/03 Craig
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The claims that the NDP are fading - the Tories are falling much faster than the NDP (and the latest Environics poll has them at 16% province-wide) and that will play a role here. The Liberals and Tories are going to be splitting votes on the right here, leaving the NDP to come up the middle. Predicted results: NDP 40%, PC 30%, LIB 27%, Green 2%.
20/04/03 A.H.
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This riding will NEVER go NDP. Sound like we have a lot of local NDPers posting on this board to make themselves feel better. I might suggest that it would be time better spent knocking on doors. Sure Marion Boyd finished 2nd last time because of her name - but if anybody thinks Rebecca Coulter has a chance at winning this seat they are dreaming in technicolor. I am not a PC supporter, but believe Dianne will win this seat again. Deb Matthews may stand a shot if there is a Liberal majority, but Dianne will be tough to beat. The fact the NDP have chosen an unknown will only help Deb's chances.
18/04/03 ARL
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A fall election means school will be in session and the last thing Diane Cunningham wants is students facing massive student loan debts voting on her future. Sure, many students will vote in their home ridings but thousands will vote at school (particularly those who can't afford to go home to vote) and that will hurt Cunningham - big time.
17/04/03 John
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Well I think 'the gambler' means LOANS and now 'lowns' - and a lot of students in Ontario have outrageous loans thanks to Cunningham. Wake up guys - the Tories are going to lose and Cunningham is going with them. 83% of people in Ontario think tuition fees are too high. Average student debt is $25 000. And the Tories are only balancing the budget by selling off public assets. Rebecca Coulter is very well-known and respected, especially on education issues. This is a riding in which the NDP is going to be the one to beat the Tories. The people of the riding want to go NDP.
16/04/03 Ken
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This riding is far from decided. I think the NDP could really win it. Post-secondary education - Cunningham's portfolio - is a disgrace! We have the lowest funding per capita in Canada, despite being the richest province! I've heard from a lot of people who think that universities are a mess right now, and that it's Cunningham's fault. I've also spoken with a substantial number of people who are really impressed with Rebecca Coulter. This is going to be a close race.
14/04/03 Scotty
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April 5 EKOS poll. Liberals 53, Tories 34, NDP 11. The NDP are finished and that means Rebecca Coulter is finished too. That means Dianne Cuningham will keep this riding.
14/04/03 THE GAMBLER
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The Gambler is putting his money on Dianne Cunningham to win London North Centre. PC Cunningham wins the tale of the tape here and will win the fight. Cunningham has been in the ring with some tough LIB's and NDP fighters and has always come out on top. This time Cunningham faces a couple of light weights and will win easily without breaking a sweat. Hit up a friend for a lown if you have to but put some money on Cunningham to win.
10/04/03
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This should be a tight race between the Liberals and PCs. I don't think it will be, unfortunately. With the NDP picking an unknown, they lose any advantage Marion Boyd brought them. The Liberal, Deb Matthews, is also little known, though she is David Peterson's sister-in-law. (This could lose her as many votes as it gets her.) With name recognition to Dianne Cunningham, along with it being a riding filled with people who like her (why I have no idea), she'll win unless there is a Liberal sweep provincially (which seems unlikely). By the way, students don't vote (at about 20% by last count), so who they support is nearly irrelevant.
04/04/03 brent
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Anyone who would make a comment about the president of LNC NDP Paris Meilleur being too young would have to be a tory. Who else would have such a narrow-minded opinion? The fact that she is president shows what a progressive, open-minded electorate the LNC NDP has.
18/03/03 RWA
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The positioning of UWO in the riding will probably have little impact. Students will be gone when the election is held, and generally don't vote in large numbers anyway. This will make the large Tory organization on campus as well as the student council's virtually official endorsement of the NDP a small factor. The NDP may well focus more attention on London-Fanshawe, with no incumbant in the picture this time around. This would be of great help to the Liberals if they were starting from second position. However, they were third last time with students gone home, and the lack of Marion Boyd in the NDP campaign helps the front-runner most.
16/03/03 SJM
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In the game of party politics, people rarely vote for the person on the ballot, it is either the party of the leader. This is by no means a safe seat for the Tories, this one will be decided on the campaign trail. Once the writ is dropped we'll have a better idea about London North Centre. I have a feeling this will be a PC/Liberal Race. Merely because of the perception game. If the Liberals are the perceived alternative then that's where the votes will go. (And last time around the NDP was the perceived alternative and votes still went to the Liberals lamb!) I have no idea what the polling data on this riding is saying, but Eves is obviously scared 'cause he's holding off on an election. (What's this a potential June election? When the Federal leadership has already been called for June 1?) This riding will go the way of the province...whoever sweeps will pick up LNC too. And the likelyhood of an NDP sweep isn't high...but then again when Peterson dropped the rits in 1990 the pundits said they were going to gain seats...I'd venture to say right now it looks like a Liberal pick up...but that is still pending the campaign, where anything can happen.
14/03/03 El Predicto
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Marion Boyd decided not to run again for the NDP in this riding because she knew there was no way she'd win. So if Marion couldn't win this seat, what chance does Rebecca Coulter have? The answer is none. What the NDP will do is help split the vote with the Liberals and let Diane Cunningham hold this seat for the Tories. Time to move this one to the Tory column.
10/03/03 ATGS
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Obviously, M.S. hasn't met the president of the LNC NDP -- because if s/he had, s/he would know that Paris Meilleur is an incredibly intelligent and energetic young woman, who well deserves the position. She not only has a great deal of experience in the activist community in London, but has also been elected to the Provincial Executive of the Ontario NDP.
05/03/03 Mike
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I'm a student at Western and I believe that Dianne will continue representing the residents of London North Centre in the same proud way she has for years. Dianne has consistently been active campaigning for riding issues, and one need not look any further than UWO's campus here in her riding to see her success as a Minister - 7 new buildings this year, and the University is ready to accomodate the "increased cohort". Dianne, coupled with the experienced leadership of Ernie Eves, will certainly hold on to her seat.
03/03/03 Sean
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Rebecca Coulter is a strong candidate who reflects the values of Marion Boyd, and Julie a Glaser is also a strong personality. As a member of this riding I can attest to the state of the race, It is very energetic and will probably be a close vote.
02/03/03 P.P.
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The NDP is the party to watch in this riding! One of the candidates, Dr. Rebecca Coulter, is the former associate dean at the Faculty of Education at the University of Western Ontario. She's a dynamite candidate! If anyone can take on Cunningham, on behalf of every college and university student in Ontario who has amassed apalling debt or been locked out because of the double cohort or tuition fees that have hit the roof, it's Dr. Coulter! As for the Liberal's Deb Matthews, the only reason anyone knows her is because of her family.
16/02/03 M.S.
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This one is still too close to call, but I really think the tide is turning here for the Liberals. First let's look at the NDP - contrary to a previous posting, the nomination race is anything but energetic. They've got three no-names running. And in this, the supposed NDP stronghold in London, the riding association president is all of 18 years old. While I think it's great teens are involved in politics, don't you think if there was such a wealth of NDP talent in this riding, they could have found someone who has at least graduated from high school? Now on to the Tories - Cunningham's handling of the double cohort has been abysmal and parents with kids who are scared about their future are going to remember that. Also, her recent comments that she wants an early election so she can have her summer off are great fodder for a energetic Liberal or NDP campaign - Cunningham has become the definition of a career politician, and when voters want change, they throw out career politicians.
14/02/03 El Predicto
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Diane Cunningham is still too popular in London to lose this seat. The Tories have been putting some serious dollars into London hospitals this winter and that will make sure Cunningham returns to Queen's Park. Even with Mario Boyd running for the NDP, they will get enough support to split the vote and Cunningham comes up the middle. Liberal candidate Deb Mathews is known as David Peterson's sister-in-law and that hurts her chances. The people of London are still angry with Peterson after all these years. Mark this one down for the Tories.
09/02/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Starting with Cunningham's 1988 byelection win but especially following the 1990 Peterson-pummelling, provincial electoral politics in staid London took a turn for the strange; for a while it was looking more like Winnipeg, with the Grits relegated to marginal monkey-in-the-middledom while Marion Boyd built what looked like a formidable NDP machine. Thus, in 2 out of 3 London seats in 1999, NDP was the endorsed anti-PC alternative, and Boyd gave a gallant but doomed fight against Dianne Cunningham. Even if Boyd's not running again, sustained momentum guarantees that this remains (esp. in light of a strong Liberal) a three-way possibility. As for Cunningham, she peaked too early (i.e. in her leadership run against Mike Harris in 1990), and has always stood in the shadow of fellow cabinet femmes Witmer and Ecker, so it wouldn't be all that surprising if electors retired her this time around--but only if the trend is firmly against the PCs...
30/01/03 JJ
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I hear the NDP nomination race is growing very hot, a strong field, very energetically contested. Out of such things are the new giant-killers made...
25/01/03 M.S.
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Right now this one is too close. Without Boyd, the NDP vote won't be nearly as strong here. The Liberals nominated early and Matthew's has been busy and is a credible opponent. It will really depend on how big the "change" sweep across the province. Cunningham is a career politician, and there's not much room for her to grow in the government. Add to that double cohort parents looking for someone to blame for their kids not getting in, who better to blame than your local MPP who happens to be the Minister responsible?! Also, Cunningham's latest comment that she wants an early election in order to have her summer free only adds to the impression that she takes the voters of this riding for granted. That's a recipe for a Liberal win if they work hard and run a good central and local campaign. Having said that, if the Tories are going to hold on to one London seat, this will be it.
10/01/03 Andrew Cox
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Too Close to Call. 1) Marion Boyd is out of the running for the NDP. Its ironic that the New Democrat charge with finding quality candidates for the party was unable to convince herself to run. 2) The big question then is "where does the Boyd vote go?" Some will stay with the NDP, obviously. But unless the party runs a demi-God, they aren't going to have someone with the personal magnetism and stature of Boyd. Some will go to the Liberals and some, but not much, to the Conservatives. 3) It looks like it will basically be a three way race, if the NDP nominate a strong local figure with profile and stature, or a two-way Liberal-PC fight, if the NDP nominate poorly. 4) Cunningham is a long-serving London MPP with a strong record and a high-profile position as Minister of Colleges and Universities in the riding of UWO. She will run a hard-fought, by the book campaign. 5) The Liberals were much smarter here than in 1999, when they nominated Roger Caranci just before the election call. Deb Matthews was out of the gate early, and is still the only nominated candidate. Judging from the number of spirited Matthews supporters on this page alone, I imagine their campaign is humming along. 6) I found the "corporate clone" description of Deb Matthews quite humourous, because the first quote I found from her in a websearch was "Matthews said she sees the increased wage gap between the rich and the poor as the biggest social issue of the moment." Not exactly torn from the opinion pages of the Wall Street Journal, its from an interview with the Western Gazette. 7) The split between the Grits and NDP, further complicated by Boyd's decision, is Cunningham's best asset.
10/01/03 RWA
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A split NDP/Liberal vote will give this to Diane. She has enough core support and the NDP, even without Boyd, is strong enough to allow Cunningham up the middle.
19/12/02 ES
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Big news in this riding. Marion Boyd has announced that she won't be running. So dismiss the predictions that say that the NDP will win if Marion runs. She's not so they won't. This opens up the riding completely to the liberals - lots of Liberals voted strategically last time to defeat the Tories. This time, they'll vote Liberal.
28/11/02 Craig
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This riding will go NDP. This seat will be targeted heavily in the campaigns, and the Liberals have not shown they are a strong alternative to the Tories on many issues. The minister has also done a terrible job both at her cabinet post and locally.
23/11/02 ES
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This will be a very interesting race. Cunningham is tired, and a Tory. It's time for her to either retire or be retired by the people. Deb Matthews is the Liberal candidate and she knows how to organize and, although she has never run before, she has strong support and is already out knocking on doors. The NDP have not nominated and have no plans to do so. Marion Boyd is playing coy about whether or not she'll run. If she does, it's a three-way race. If she doesn't, it will be a fight between the Libs and the PCs. The big question in this riding is this - where will the strategic anti-Tory vote go? Last time, it went to the NDP but it still wasn't enough to win. This time, the Liberals are out strong and early, and, I think, will become the choice of the anti-Tories. In that case, the Libs will take it.
21/11/02
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Deb Matthews is a truely worthwhile candidate, and hardly the "corporate clone" described above. Her work with organizations such as Big Sisters and the Memorial Boys & Girls Club in the riding speaks for itself about her community involvement, while her current work at UWO proves she has the brains for the job. Regardless of who decides to run against her for the other parties, she has a solid chance of emerging victorious.
18/11/02 bam
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If Marion Boyd runs again she will take this riding in the next provincial election. The tories have proven their incompetence in the hydro privatization fiasco, something the ndp predicted. The liberal candidate, deb mathews is another corporate clone. time for diane to step down. i don't think she will take on boyd again. she will retire
09/11/02 ATGSd
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Tough to say if Diane is going to be threatened, but if the New Democrats elect a candidate as strong as Marion Boyd and continue rising in the polls, they should be able to close that 1700 vote gap with a good campaign.
27/10/02 A.D.
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Dianne has done a horrible job and deserves the boot!!!! she has gutted our universities tuition is know almost unafordable. Thanks Dianne!!!! this will be a close riding if the NDP can run a well known and liked candidate. I woul love to see Dianne vs. Marion once again, Marion defeated Peterson in 90 in an unpresidented upset and won again in 95 when the NDP only sent 17MPP's to QP. Redistribution hurt the NDP but i think that Hydro and Education will play well here and the NDP could upset again. Another in the NDP corner as they roll their way to Gov't
21/10/02 N S
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I go to WEstern the students love Dianne. If she has support amongst the Students she will win this riding. She spends lots of time here and along with her cabinet responsibilities is a solid representative for London..as long as their is a strong NDP Dianne should be able to take it!


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