Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Mississauga South

Last Update:
4:43 PM 07/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
30 October 2002



Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
Liberal Party:
Tim Peterson
Progressive Conservative:
Margaret Marland
New Democratic Party:
Ken Cole
Green Party:
Pamela Murray

Incumbent:
Margaret Marland

Federal MP:
Paul Szabo

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction
Plurality11615

*MARGARET MARLAND
23890 61.27%

IEVA MARTIN
12275 31.48%

KEN COLE
2293 5.88%

TIM SULLIVAN
535 1.37%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality10 537
Paul Szabo
20 676 51.8%
Brad Butt
10 139 25.4%
David Brown
6 903 17.3%
Ken Cole
1 636 4.1%

Demographic Profile:
Population
2001101647
1996100260
199199333

(1996 census)

Age
0-1942235
20-3944420
40-5932560
60+8810

Avg Household Income

$70862
Labour Participation76.80%
Unemployment6.90%

Canadian Citizen

89.81%
Canadian Born64.82%
Ontario Born53.85%
Immigrant34.62%
Visible Minority27.17%
Aboriginal0.29%

First Language
English90990
French2210
Chinese5440
Portuguese3065
Italian2840
Polish2730

Residence
House81.87%
Apartment17.90%
Owned76.20%
Rented23.80%
Avg Dwelling Value$208594

Education
University31320
College/Trade School28380
Secondary31590



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01/10/03 JM
Email:
Margaret Marland was at the Clarkson GO train station on Tuesday morning greeting commuters on their way to work. Judging from the garbage cans inside the station and on the platform, 19 out of 20 people who took her literature dumped it without reading it (we Canadians are too polite not to take a pamphlet from a nice little old lady). Curiously this is the only time I've seen anyone from the tory camp during this campaign and I live in Lorne Park, allegedly a tory stronghold. Margaret has a few big signs around on the same lawns that have had Tory signs in the past. There is no momentum. Margaret may have been the MPP in Mississauga South since Confederation but few residents of the riding could identify her in a police lineup. Her contribution has not been memorable. Peterson, on the other hand is running a classic campaign--two or three pieces of literature, door-knocking, and lots of signs. I gather he is the designated candidate for those strategic voters (i.e. teachers) who simply want to dump the tory government. I would like to have heard more from the NDP but I suspect they've given up. This is a two way race but I think Peterson has got it in the bag.
01/10/03 Richard G.
Email: richard4019@hotmail.com
Mississauga South I believe this time will go Liberal. In 1987 Marg Marland won by about 300 votes but the riding population has changed since then. The riding has even gone Liberal Federally. There is a lot of right wing anger in the riding. and that Margaretís usefulness is at an end especially if sheís going to be in opposition. She didnít have any high profile jobs during terms she was elected so what can she do in opposition?
30/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
Ms. Marland has withstood alot of challenges and this time will be no different. The riding is very conservative and stuck with the Tories through 1987 and 1990. People will clue into two things - one, IF the Liberals are thought to be ahead, they will want to elect quality Tory MPPs to the legislature to provide effective opposition, and two, Eves' warnings of tax increases under McGuinty will take hold here. All this is wind in Ms. Marland's sails, who already has a solid following in this constituency.
29/09/03 Gerry Kennedy
Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
I've decided to change this prediction as bizarre as it might sound. There is a 30% shift in 905 and that's enough to make this riding a statistical dead heat. Margaret Marland will not be getting lots of Tory resources. They will be better invested elsewhere nor has she done anything great in this term to suggest she will do better than the average Tory in 905. In addition, Tim Peterson is an excellent Liberal candidate and, should he win, I suspect he might be Peel's representative in cabinet making him the third Peterson brother to be called "The Honourable".
29/09/03 A. C. Branston
Email:
This riding has not elected a provincial Liberal since the 1930s and I don't think that will change. However, I have noticed in areas such as Lorne Park, the heart of PC support in this riding, an abundance of Tim Peterson signs. Also, longtime Liberals are finding a warmer response when knocking on doors or cold calling. Yet, Mississauga South Liberals will need to move 7000 votes from Margaret Marland's column into Tim Peterson's column, which is not an easy task. The desire to be rid of the Tories is not equal to the sentiments felt nationally in 1993. This riding remained Tory even in 1987 at the height of David Petersonís popularity. The large concentration of high earners makes this area a natural Tory seat and Margaret Marland since 1985 has effectively made this her riding. This combination of a popular longtime Tory MPP and a tradition for electing provincial Conservatives makes electing a Liberal in Mississauga South a Herculean task. For that reason, Iím giving this one to the Tories albeit with a reduced plurality of votes.
26/09/03 john
Email: inkwire@hotmail.com
Miss South has never elected anyone BUT Tories, and a year ago I would have bet that it never would, but: 1) the crudeness in the Eves campaign has offended a lot of life-long Tories, who'll probably stay home on election day as a "protest", 2) Marg Marland has done so little for the riding that she can count on support only from the bluest of the blue areas of Mississauga South (such as Lorne Park and south to the lake), 3)PC party insiders think Marg doesn't bring anything to the Party, and would have prefered if someone else had run in her place, so they're not giving her much support, 4) finally, Marland has never had to fight a close election, and by the time she realizes her seat is at risk it will be too late for her to learn how.
25/09/03 Gerry Kennedy
Email:
I will add my voice to the Tory wave but it is going to be closer than people are saying. True, Margaret Marland is a political institution a la Elsie Wayne in Saint John but TIm Petersen is mounting a strong campaign. 905 is really turning red. Regardless, I really can't see the Tories getting shut out in Mississagua and this is their best chance of a keeper.
24/09/03 Cosmonaut
Email:
Not that this is that relevant, but the Liberal candidate is the third and last of the Peterson brothers to enter politics (David, of course, being the former Premier and Jim being a federal cabinet minister). Although I think the Peterson family might be spending more time in focusing on getting David's sister-in-law Deb Matthews elected in London. No wonder David has no clue what is happening on the dozen or so companies he is a director on.
10/09/03 Craig
Email:
The safest Tory seat in Mississauga, and Marland is not going anywhere. The only real issue could be the environment from Lakeview Generating Station, but the Tories have pledged to convert it by 2005. Some may doubt it though and protest, but this seat has been Tory forever, and will likely stay blue in one of the largest Tory victories. Current prediction: Marland 56%, Peterson 33%, Cole 7%, Murray 3%, others 1%.
06/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: ericbucholz@hotmail.com
This is bedrock, bedrock 905 for the Tories. Marland is a veteran MPP, having won numerous elections here, and having survived 1987 and 1990.
14/05/03 Grizz
Email:
Marland is practically an institution in this riding, winning over 60% of the vote last time. No need for a crystal ball to figure out who'll win this one.
10/04/03 Panther
Email:
Margaret Marland is officially running for re-election. Does anyone else smell a landslide victory in the making? Marland is too popular and as one too many elections to lose time time. Tory win here for sure.
18/03/03 J H
Email:
Several people in the community have been approached about running in place of Margaret Marland who seems to want to call it a day. This might not open the riding up to opposition but it makes the Tory campaign work a little harder in a riding that should have been an easier win. If the Tories run a bad campaign it might have a shot at going red.
27/10/02 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Whether or not Margaret Marland runs again, this remains the safest Tory seat in Mississauga. Any sitting PC who won *at all* in 1987, an absolute majority in 1990, over 2/3 of the vote in 1995 and over 60% in 1999 has to be counted as eternal. (True, accounting for boundary changes would alter some of those figures a bit--but it's the machine in place that matters.)


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