Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Mississauga West

Last Update:
3:10 PM 01/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
9:31 PM 30/09/2003



Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
Liberal Party:
Bob Delaney
Progressive Conservative:
Nina Tangri
New Democratic Party:
Arif Raza
Green Party:

Incumbent:
John Snobelen

Federal MP:
Steve Mahoney

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction
Plurality9024

*JOHN SNOBELEN
26816 57.31%

BOB DELANEY
17792 38.03%

MAXINE CARON
1795 3.84%

FRED FREDEEN
387 0.83%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality20 678
Steve Mahoney
31 260 63.2%
Philip Leong
10 582 21.4%
Gul Nawaz
5 275 10.7%
Cynthia Kazadi
1 532 3.1%

Demographic Profile:
Population
2001150764
1996128029
199199281

(1996 census)

Age
0-1925595
20-3932020
40-5926795
60+15840

Avg Household Income

$71862
Labour Participation70.10%
Unemployment7.30%

Canadian Citizen

90.43%
Canadian Born67.57%
Ontario Born55.70%
Immigrant31.74%
Visible Minority14.95%
Aboriginal0.46%

First Language
English70430
French1620
Polish4510
Portuguese2985
Italian2950

Residence
House64.45%
Apartment35.26%
Owned63.78%
Rented36.22%
Avg Dwelling Value$231253

Education
University22900
College/Trade School22900
Secondary28250



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30/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
Mr. Snoblen is not running this time, but that should not stop the riding from remaining true blue. Apart from Mississauga South, Mississauga West has the most bedrock Tory support. The Liberals will need more than an eight point swing to gain this seat.
30/09/03 Gerrard G.
Email:
I agree totally with Rob, in the last election Delaney had a 3to1 ration in signs. but if you look closely nina has just as much signs as delaney. It seems like every liberal took a sign, but not as much took a nina but she still has tons out! For example look on Mississauga rd. part of mississauga west. At first you see a 3to1 ration of delaney signs then later down near streetsville all u see are nina tangri signs! I think many liberal supporters are turning to nina. She has shown up at many debates i have gone too and she even showed up at one by the peel fund for better education(a pro-liberal organization) that was only used to smash nina, but she did well. Her campaign office is moving quickly, as is Delaneys. On my trip to the Go station this morning i personally met Nina where she was speaking to voters and handing out panflets. I've seen over 3 different nina flyers and they are all pretty good. The reason for a shift of Liberal votes is the fact that she speaks well, and with enthusiam. Delaney is like dalton Mguinty when it comes with speaking. That isnít a compliment for those wondering.
29/09/03 Full Name
Email: flrx39@msn.com
Even though the current prediction for this riding is too close to call between PC and Liberal, I think that Bob Delaney will win outright. Nina Tangri is most likely a token candidate, plus she is replacing John Snobelen, and Arif Raza, while being the most vocal on how Tory tax cuts have affected education, belongs to the wrong party. Unfortunately this election will be about the parties rather than the people, and many will vote against the best person in favour of the best party.
26/09/03 Rob C.
Email:
how can people even come close to think this riding is going liberal. about 90percent of a large area with a large amount of money(Credit Mills) is going Tangri. Not only does she live in that area but she convinced them. Anyways Bob Delaney is doing well, no doubt, i think this riding is close but no win for liberals. I vote usually Liberal but much of mississauga west including me have either recieved numerous flyers from Nina, and my house has been doorknocked twice and have already recieved 3 flyers from Nina. Bob delaney has also been working hard. Numerous times have I visited Bob Delaney's office and they all think this election is wrapped up for them. It isnt but it will be hard, especially since a candidate in the nomination for the ontario pc who went against Nina has helped Delaney(talk about loyalty ey?) anyways to wrap this up people in this riding should not focus too much on signs they see, especially since when delaney ran against John in the last election he probably had a 3to1 ratio with signs, but got flattened. Whatever Delaney might be telling people, this riding is in a nice shade of tory blue
25/09/03 Gerry Kennedy
Email:
I cannot understand at all why you are predicting this for Tangri. The voters here are mad because Snobelen did such an awful job of representing them. On top of that, Tangri is not a very high profile candidate. ABout half of the 905 ridings (at least) should be moving Liberal and this is one of the most likely.
25/09/03 The Big Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
I am surprised that Mississauga West is listed as a Tory win. From what I can tell this would be a too close to call riding. I've noticed that several ridings have been switched from a PC win to undecided in recent days, maybe this should be included on that list. The Liberals are storming ahead, there is no incumbant to be re-elected and the all powerful mayor or Mississauga has practically endorsed the liberals. I'm not ready to give this one to the grits but I feel by no means should it be considered a certain PC win.
25/09/03 Still, Kitten
Email:
Take a close look at Delaney. He's now working through his third(atleast)Campaign Manager, the latest coming on board during the election, along with a new CFO and new Sign Chair. It's easy to see Delaney's ship is leaking like a sieve. Why are supporters jumping ship, when the polls indicate a liberal government might be on the horizon next week? Former director for the Mississauga West provincial liberals, Cecil Young, sums it up quite well in a column published in the Mississauga News (Sept 24) "They are not all the same. It is a tough choice; I may choose my party's choice, despite my misgivings about the candidate, or I may make my decision as the pen is about to strike the ballot paper. For the first time, I understand the undecided voter; I am now one." (http://www.mississauga.com/mi/opinion/column/story/1368680p-1612774c.html) After going with the tory-flow in the last two elections and getting saddled with a 'cowboy', voters in Missisauga West will understand the loud warnings and either stay home or stay blue.
24/09/03 Derek L.
Email:
I think this will go Liberal for three reasons. First and fcoremost the Liberals are clearly winning BIG across the province and in suburban swing ridings like this, the swing will be particularly strong. Second, the whole Snobelen the cowboy thing leaves a bad taste in peoples mouth/ Thirdly, apparently the Tory repalcement for Snobelen is low profile and weak. Liberal by about 10%.
24/09/03 Full Name
Email:
The departure of Snobelen makes this into a horse race. McGuinty's rising fortunes give the Liberals a small edge, here.
22/09/03 R.H.
Email:
The only real hurricane to hit this riding on September 19 was Hurricane Hazel with her scathing remarks regarding the Tory platform. As Mayor of Mississauga, she earned front-page headlines and top story billing on television newscasts by stating that people are tired of tax cuts and want investments to be made in public services. She stopped just short of telling her constituents to vote Liberal, but the message was none too subtle. Her endorsement of the Liberal priorities in this election are bound to have an impact in a vulnerable Tory riding like this one. This riding is bound to be a horserace.
22/09/03 Old Bruce Boy
Email: dsimms@arvotek.net
Definite Liberal gain here. Delaney name is more familar than the new PC candidate. Sonbolen and the PC's Common Sense Revoloution appeal has finally worn off.
29/08/03 Craig
Email:
In about 2 weeks, a by-election will need to be called here. I think there will be considerable anger over the delayed election call, and despite not being the strongest candidate, Delaney will win the by-election (if held) and maintain the seat into the general election. The NDP could show surprising strength (like in the federal by-election in Perth-Middlesex where they got almost 20%) in the by-election as well if there is one, since they will be trying to build momentum themselves (although they will be a fringe party if a general election is called first since no NDP resources would be sent here at all). The Tories will definitely lose a by-election, so they should be thinking about calling the election and fast! Current prediction: (by-election if necessary) Delaney 47%, Tangri 30%, Raza 17%, others 6% - followed by another large Delaney win (general election if held first) Delaney 48%, Tangri 42%, Raza 4%, others 4%.
24/06/03 Kitten
Email:
With friends like Wardak, who needs enemies? A solid,campaign strategy of lumps in the kitty litter? Liberals will have to yank the goalie to win. Predicts: Arif picks up the disaffected. Nina wins. Delaney ranches in Okanogan.
24/06/03 Political Hack
Email:
Bob Delaney really is as bad as everyone says he is. That's why it looks to me like the Tories are asleep at the switch. If the Tories were on the ball, they'd call this by-election, beat Delaney easily and try to build some momentum for a fall general election. This by-election is a gift and the Tories are blowing it. Nina Tangri isn't much of a candidate but she'll beat Delaney any time.
06/06/03 ME
Email:
Delaney is white therefore he should be elected? Are you sure he is running for the Liberal, not the Christian Heritage party?
04/06/03 Wardak
Email:
Come visit a door or two. That's all it would take for any doubters to see that the Tories have definitely lost Mississauga West. Bob Delaney has been nominated since December 2001 and has been knocking on doors since. Combine this with the best campaign team he has assembled and most Liberals have assembled in the history of the Ontario Liberal Party and this spells "victory" with an incredible majority in this riding.
The proof:
1. The riding is over 3/4 white. Bob Delaney is a white male, Nina Tangri is a Sikh female. Snobelen was liked in the riding, partially because he was white and the people of the riding seem to prefer this.
2. Since the Tory candidate has been nominated, she has been virtually non-existent. She has only hit a small portion of the riding (maybe 1/20th) and has only been the candidate for a month and a bit.
3. Delaney has already got a pamphlet out to every house in the riding, has over 1,000 sign locations, and is getting 90% support within the riding right now. This is a clear sign that he is going to win.
4. Bob Delaney is an experienced campaigner; he knows how to do it and do it well. One major factor in his favour is that he actually lives in the riding . . . what an interesting thing, a candidate who actually lives in the riding they are running, maybe the Tories might want to think about this before they run a candidate like Nina (from Brampton).
Quite simply, call the by-election, I'll put any money on this one and I will win! Besides, Delaney is a hockey goaltender, with Gary Carr leaving, the parliamentary hockey league is going to need a replacement. I would love to see Nina Tongri in a mask holding a trapper, blocker and goalie stick!
02/05/03 Scoop Jackson
Email:
The Tories won't be calling a general election this spring. Instead watch for a snap by-election in Mississauga West before the summer. I hear that the Tories think they can hold on to Mississauga West in a by-election and that would give them some momentum going in a fall campaign. The Tory candidate, Nina Tangri is average at best but she does have experience. She was the federal Tory candidate in 2000. The Tories biggest advantage here is that the Liberal candidate, Bob Delaney is as bad a candidate as you could find. If the Tories do win this snap by-election, it could give them a badly needed boost. Keep your eyes on Mississauga West.
10/04/03 Bryan Cowell
Email:
The PCs have nominated Nina Tangri, making their chances of victory very good. She ran unsuccessfully in Mississauga Centre federally, which probably helped her more than it hurt, as it will taught her campaign people valuable lessons on preparation and election readiness. Bob Delaney has been nominated for a long time but still isn't visible enough in the riding to have much of an impact. The Tories may be hurt by the way Snobelen left, but I think it is unlikely that that will have much of a difference on this race. Tories keep MissWest.
26/03/03 AM
Email:
I have seen Delaney in action. The man is a fool. He's so arrogant even the teachers unions abandoned him in 1999 in spite of them salivating at the thought of knocking off the former Minister of Education. I would give the Libs a chance in this riding, but for Delaney.
18/03/03 SM
Email:
Now that Snobelen has said he won't be running, the Tories may have a shot at keeping the riding. But the sting from having an arrogant MPP like Snobelen, who cared more about Oklahoma cattle ranches than he did his constituents, will probably linger for a while, and it's undoubtedly associated with the PC brand. This riding also voted over 60% for the Liberals federally. And where would you consider the natural spot to park your vote if you're a poor-bashing, tax-cut-hogging, tory voter who isn't happy with the MPP's performance? I can tell you it's not the NDP. Lucky for them.
02/01/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
I wouldn't make a big deal about Bob Delaney's "losing history"; remember that Snobelen went from 1990's mediocre third place finish to 1995's victory in the former Mississauga North. Still, it might appear that the Okie Simpleton's absenteeism and resignation is destined to be a defining issue within the upcoming election--has it, or has it not invented a 905-belt Tory crisis?. But under Snobelen's watch--as a surprisingly solid 1999 mandate, and peppy 1997/2000 Reform/Alliance contests, have proven--an unlikely laid-back screw-you right-populist machine has taken seed within the rapid-growth Erin Mills-Meadowvale-Streetsville belt. (Which has its local Liberal corollary in iconoclastic current MP/former MPP Steve Mahoney: a strong reason why Reform/Alliance still doesn't have a chance in blazes.) Watch this space, and I'm not talking about the one between Snobelen's ears...
16/12/02 Marto
Email:
The Tories in for a race here - with the departure of Snobelen. There is no doubt, however, that the Liberals made a big mistake nominating a Candidate that has a losing history. The Libs may have just handed this one to the Tories - no matter who they nominate.
23/10/02 Craig
Email:
I have to agree. The Liberals will steal this one no matter who runs. If John Snobelen runs for the Tories, it will be a cakewalk. There is considerable anger in the riding for the former Education Minister, and the voters will show it! Liberals to win here, by about 5-10% if Snobelen does not run and 25% or more if he does run.
22/10/02 Lori Wynn
Email:
With all the negative media around John Snobelen living in Oklahoma and picking up his cheque as an MPP, this riding looks good for the Liberals. Voters in Mississauga West are so agry at Snobelen, they'll take it out on whoever runs for the PC's next spring. Bob Delaney has name recognition from the last election and will take this riding for the Liberals.
20/10/02 B.C.
Email:
Like most other seats in 905, Mississauga West will return a Conservative. Last time the Liberals were beaten soundly by the Tories organisation and bankrole. This time the Liberals are still in debt from last election and donations aren't exactly flooding in. The Liberals are also running the same failed candidate from last time. Add to that the fact that the Tories will be more committed to win with a new candidate, as John Snobelen pretty much has one foot already out the door. The Tories are better organized, much better financed and should win this seat fairly easily. If however the Liberals managed to pull of an upset here, it is highly likely the Tory government will fall.


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