Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Nepean-Carleton

Last Update:
5:02 PM 07/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
23 October 2002



Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
Liberal Party:
Rod Vanier
Progressive Conservative:
John Baird
New Democratic Party:
Green Party:
Matt Takach

Incumbent:
John Baird

Federal MP:
David Pratt

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction
Plurality14737

*JOHN BAIRD
31546 62.31%

GORD HUNTER
16809 33.2%

CRAIG PARSONS
1647 3.25%

BILL FRAMPTON
386 0.76%

BRIAN E. JACKSON
239 0.47%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality2 260
David Pratt
24 570 41.2%
Michael Green
22 310 37.4%
Bill Knott
9 536 16%
Craig Parsons
2 223 3.7%

Demographic Profile:
Population
2001126638
1996111886
199199709

(1996 census)

Age
0-1933965
20-3934210
40-5931320
60+12405

Avg Household Income

$75981
Labour Participation75.30%
Unemployment5.90%

Canadian Citizen

96.99%
Canadian Born84.24%
Ontario Born65.14%
Immigrant15.49%
Visible Minority8.23%
Aboriginal0.69%

First Language
English91735
French5565

Residence
House94.31%
Apartment4.11%
Owned84.31%
Rented15.69%
Avg Dwelling Value$175750

Education
University30260
College/Trade School25330
Secondary26270



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01/10/03 Dale
Email:
Reading the submissions about how much people do not like John Baird, and my own neighbours and connections throughtout the riding bear the same sentiment, I still have difficulty in figuring out why he is able to command the following he has. This leads me to think that he will lose many votes as he doe snot have Mike Harris to emulate or to hear during the campaign. I hear the words arrogant, exasperating, and even "mealy-mouthed" from some who recount what they've witnessed of him in public. That said, I do hear that he is respected for not being afraid to meet with his enemies in SOcial Services, and others whom have been hurt by his government's policies over the last eight years. If Rod Vanier had been more visible in the riding both before and especially during the election, I would say the Liberals may have a chance to take it. At the debates, he has shown himself to know both the riding and the party platforms decently well. Some of the lack of major visibility may be because the Liberals did not expect the PC disintegration as much as has happened the last two weeks, or the visibility may be there. Based on the visibility, I still predict that John Baird will retain the seat.
30/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
This area is small c and this trend should continue. Baird won by a very impressive margin 5 years ago and no matter how well McGuinty does, this will be one riding on his doorstep that will be Tory blue.
27/09/03 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
With the Liberal province-wide lead soemwehre between 10-17% (judged by three post-debate polls published on 27.09.03) I think that Baird will survive by a margin of 8-10% or so, or roughly 3,500 votes. The PC base (reflected also in the strong support for the Alliance federally) and Baird's incumbancy should make it a win. I did want to comment on not relying too much on regional sub-sections of province-wide polls, something that many of the commenters are doing to excess. If a province-wide poll has a margin of error of say 4% 19 times out of 20, regional totals are multiplied from that, so an Eastern Ontario subsample could well have a 12-15% margin of error, and be nearly meaningless, or at elast to be taken with a grain of salt. [said by one who foolishly relied on a western ontario sub-sample in 1977 to predict a Liberal collapse that sure didn't take place in that region!]
26/09/03 SR
Email:
I wouldn't be surprized if the PCs take this riding as Baird seems to have strong support. However, the all-candidates meeting last night was very interesting, and came as a bit of a surprize to me. If the audience was at all representative of the riding's voters, average sentiment may have swung away from Baird. (Or, maybe more left-leaning people tend to attend these meetings?) He was challenged on many fronts, and came across as defensive and smooth-talking (i.e. he avoided answering most of the questions addressed to him.) Also, people who worked for the Ministry of Community and Social Services say that he didn't make any friends there by treating people very poorly.
25/09/03 D Gourley
Email: gourleyd@rogers.com
I think Mr. Baird will hang on to his seat. He won very convincingly last election against a well known local politician. He is now more mature and is this time up against a liberal with less name recognition. I believe the liberal tide will not be able to take this seat but it will be close, (unless the tide turns in the next week). If a stronger liberal candidate was running, the seat would be up for grabs. In the riding there are no strong local issues to get people riled up against the tories.
25/09/03 P.M.
Email:
I think this riding could be pretty close. In 1999, the Tories beat the Libs by 6% province-wide, and John Baird beat his Liberal opponent by 29%. In other words, Baird did 23% better than his party. Recent polls show that the current Liberal lead is roughly 17% province-wide and 24% in Eastern Ontario. If Baird once again does 23% better than his party, then the election could be close, although I'd give a slight edge to Baird over Liberal Rod Vanier. As a resident of Nepean-Carleton, I've noticed two main sentiments in this election: 1) Baird is well-regarded personally by his constituents. 2) There is a general appetite for change after 8 years of the Tories. It's hard to predict which of these sentiments will win out.
23/09/03 Andrew Cox
Email:
Liberal Gain. Reason: The latest Ipsos-Reid poll is out, and it is pretty shocking. While smaller (and less efficient) companies are reporting a closer race in Eastern Ontario than elsewhere, Ipsos shows a commanding 24% lead for the Grits east of Peterborough. Liberal 54%, PC 30%, NDP 8%. Based on this, the Liberals would hold everything they have, take the obvious seats like Ottawa West-Nepean and start looking possible in places like John Baird's riding. Closer to home, this means that Nighbor is much more secure than previously thought. The other very interesting finding was that the Liberals lead in Ontario among rural voters by a wide margin (48% to 34% PC). Expect that to translate into weak returns for Yakabuski in the rural ends of the riding.
21/09/03 Wayne
Email:
Baird will be able to escape the Tory collapse and keep his seat. He won by such a massive margain last time out, it seems a loss is just not in the cards. He has been a so-so minister, but at least he works hard.
21/09/03 Panther
Email:
Baird will be re-elected once again with the same large plurality of votes than in '99. He's a popular and well-liked MPP in the riding who has represented his constituents well at Queen's Park. He has also managed some tough cabinet ministries admirably. The Liberal candidate is a virtual unknown in the riding. The Liberal simply will not be able to find the votes necessary to beat Barid. Tory win here, or Panther will retire!
17/09/03 Dale
Email:
While John Baird has not done well in his portfolios as a cabinet minister, and his public comments have sometimes embarassed his government, it must be said that he has learned to campaign well. Having lived in his riding since 96, and having helped campaign against him in 99, I've seen that he has broad support across the riding, even where he does not deserve it. He is very visible in the riding, and his face-to-face demeanor usually seems to keep even people who dislike him from being able to express it well. Finally, he's impressed even popular outgoing city councillor Alex Munter (Ottawa Citizen, Sept 15 I think) as nearly unstoppable, even if the Tories lose big this time.
15/09/03 MJ
Email:
Realistically this riding is going to stay PC. 62% from last election is a high percentage of votes for the Liberals to overcome. Baird is a two-time incumbent, very visible, works hard and has had a high profile with his cabinet post. The Liberal candidate is a virtual unknown. None of the other candidates even have a chance. All you have to do is look at the average household income of $76,000 to see that this will stay conservative.
08/07/03 SMW
Email:
Wow... Liberal HQ must be carpet bombing this website, no one who knows Ottawa would make these kinds of predictions. First, this is a traditional Tory riding. The late Hans Daigler won it in a sweep in '87 and held it in 90 when the Tories weren't picking up seats, that's it. Second, Baird will win the rural areas by at least 75%. All he would have to do is hold his own in the city to win. The thing is, he is VERY popular in the city as well. Anyone from the area knows this. He works his riding hard every weekend. Third, he is running against a no-name Liberal candidate. He destroyed a popular councillor last time, imagine what he will do against a nobody. And finally, McGuinty's stupid comments about forced bilingualism will hurt in this riding, as it will in the rest of west end Ottawa. I can only imagine how upset Mr. Vanier and Mr. Watson were when he opended his yap on that.
27/06/03 Chris
Email:
Alot has changed in this riding since 1999. The high-tech boom is over as so is the Alliance craze. People have been brought back down to earth. Barrahaven has grown tremendousily since the last election, creating a more urban, thus more leftist riding. With Baird being behind the Hydro screw-up, that should be more than enough to say this riding is too close to call. Along with Ottawa being Liberal country, lead by Premier in waiting, along with threatened Heart Surgery closings and public school budget cuts and the length of this government, I think the Liberals can take it. All that is in their way is that strong rural tory blue. We just hope that the 10-20% of Greens and New Democrats decide to back the Liberals just so we can get those Tories out. Prediction: Liberals 51%, PC 43%, NDP 3%, Green 3%
27/05/03 Craig
Email:
It is a huge uphill climb, but 'Rusty' Baird has rusted both the Hydro and Social Services departments, leaving the Liberals wide open to take over. The Hydro mess, personal comments, destruction of social services, presence of Dalton nearby and the lack of an NDP base will mean the Liberals should win in this suburban riding. Predicted results: LIB 50%, PC 37%, NDP 7%, Green 4%.
23/05/03 PM
Email:
While in some cases a sitting minister can consider himself relatively safe, that is ONLY when the sitting government is doing good. The last month has heard nothing but "contempt" coming from opposing parties and others! The local press around the budget a month ago was just as harsh. Eves is even being called a liar by numerous finacial firms that claim Eves HAS NOT BALANCED THE BUDGET and that they are in fact in deficit spending!!! Add in extending the Christmas Break by over a month (cause politicians need more holidays), taking rights away from teachers (while you may say teachers complain too much, no one likes it when fellow blue collar workers are stripped of their bargaining power), and then Eves' head games about the calling of this election.... this government has screwed up ROYALY! Alas, if you look at the PC candidate, Baird, he was at the helm of the energy portfolio when our hydro bills when through the roof (of course he did a 360 degree turn when the PC numbers started sliding because of it). Then... as if matters were not worse enough... he joked about SARS (one of the sickest, most disrespectful jokes I have ever heard). Baird is smug and arrogant and I beg you people to change the prediction on this site cause Baird has ABSOLUTELY nothing going for him this time around... sorry, but its true! The liberals on the other hand are ahead in the polls, Dalton is looking like a leader (finally) and the NDP i think are still reeling from their previous government and will likely need another election or two to get back to the poll numbers they used to have. This is NOT PC, NOT NDP... its gotta be LIBERAL!!!
12/05/03 Grizz
Email:
The PC incumbant comes accross to many as a jerk (including to yours trully). This coupled with dwindling PC fortunes means that the Liberals will take it (it will be a squeaker...one to watch on election night).
10/04/03 Thomas Mulligan
Email: ottcentre@aol.com
This one is a toss up between Baird and the Liberal Candidate Rod Vanier (by the way you should add his nam to the nominated candidates), The faux pas ridden Baird tenure in both Social Services and Energy combined with a preception the he does not like LITTLE PEOPLE particularly single parents and teacherS have hundreds lined agianst him. If the liberals can get these people out to work this could be the end of the Tories in Nepean Carleton.The demographics have changes alot since the last election and the party that organizes best in the new areas will win.This one has now become to close to call. Some of my family has been here so long they have a street named after them and have always voted tory but even they are reevaluating their choice.
03/04/03 ARL
Email:
"Rusty" Baird's slickness and superficiality could hurt him in an election that'll see Tory fortunes sink province wide. Baird does well when the Tories do well but the lacks the personal connection needed to survive the lean times and with Baird sticking his foot in his mouth on a regular basis in the Energy portfolio (and making jokes about the SARS crisis) he comes across as someone who just doesn't care. Look for a far tighter race than anyone, particularly Mr. Baird, expects.
02/04/03 Robert M.
Email: mcgarry1@sympatico.ca
I live in London but I wanted to say this riding will not go Tory in the next election. I wanted to allude to the comment made on April 2 by John Baird about the S.A.R.S.outbreak and how he went up to reporters and coughed and then the media said he gave them S.A.R.S. and he coughed again and said "I enjoyed my trip to Asia" like talk about being a freakin' retard. So even though the NDP may seem like a long shot I think they might take this riding, the only reason they might not is because people seem to be so damn afraid they will be like Bob Rae's Gov't.
26/03/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
The odds appear extremely good for the Tories here--rural/exurban parts that were staunchly PC even through the 1987/90 nadir; Nepean's rapidly-growing suburban externals which benefited from the high-tech boom; a 60%+ PC vote in '99; an Alliance near-conquest in '00; John Baird's own Mario Dumontesque countenance as a fine upstanding young future for Ontario politics. Still, the high-tech boom excesses are yesteryear, and Baird is marked by the Hydro debacle and whatever else--so his electoral drop-off could be bigger than the norm. (And this *does* border on McGuinty country.) But as a rule, 60% PC mandates are difficult to overturn. It just means that the "good" odds are less than even.
11/03/03 Petrol Pete
Email: Petrolpete@hotmail.com
If there was any doubt that Baird would take this riding in a walk, it vanished with Baird's solid and high profile performance as Energy Minister. It is the classic story of local young punk making good on the provincial stage that will give Baird a good shot at actually increasing his margin. Baird took a flyer on backing Jim Flaherty in the leadership race and was exiled to the Whip's office as a result causing him to be invisible to all but the hard core tv fans who watch late night Parliamentary coverage. Baird bided his time and played team ball, was rewarded by Eves, and has run with the ball as a first string Minister. Baird's next opponent should get danger pay from Liberal HQ - a scorcher!
07/11/02 GasCanAl
Email:
Despite popular opinion the Tories decision to take over the school board in Ottawa is probably pretty popular here. Three of the four trustees who formed the minority on the old board represented wards in Nepean-Carleton...so firing Jim Libbey was likely popular here. Canning David Levine and company at the Ottawa Hospital is likely a winner here too!
22/10/02 Craig
Email:
In 1999, John Baird won this riding in a landslide. However, since then, the Tories have been harsh on Ottawa, especially in health and education. The fact that Dalton McGuinty's riding is close means the Liberals will be trying hard for this riding...they want a sweep or near-sweep of Ottawa and Eastern Ontario. If Baird goes for re-election, he and the Tories should win here, but not by nearly as much as in 1999. If he does not, there is a chance the Liberals could pull an upset.


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