Parry Sound-Muskoka

Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Parry Sound-Muskoka

Last Update:
3:23 PM 01/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
20 October 2002

Political Profile:

Candidates:
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Liberal Party:
Dan Waters

Progressive Conservative:
Norm Miller

New Democratic Party:
Jo Anne Boulding

Green Party:

Incumbent:

Norm Miller

Federal MP:

Hon. Andy Mitchell

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 11997

*ERNIE EVES

22967 57.97%

ISABEL DOXEY

10970 27.69%

DAN WATERS

5343 13.49%

IRIS TAMSSOT

339 0.86%

2001 By-Election:
Plurality 3924

Norm Miller

12903 49.30%

Evelyn Brown

8979 34.31%

Richard Thomas

3229 12.34%

Joanne Bury

888 3.39%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 8 342

Andy Mitchell

17 911 47.5%

George Stripe

9 569 25.4%

Keith Montgomery

7 055 18.7%

Joanne Bury

1 665 4.4%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 85377

1996 82853

1991 79179

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 20660

20-39 20275

40-59 21940

60+ 19980

Avg Household Income
$45424

Labour Participation 59.40%

Unemployment 11.90%

Canadian Citizen
98.36%

Canadian Born 91.46%

Ontario Born 85.03%

Immigrant 8.45%

Visible Minority 0.66%

Aboriginal 2.73%

First Language

English 76105

French 1185

Residence

House 86.44%

Apartment 11.99%

Owned 78.16%

Rented 21.84%

Avg Dwelling Value $140571

Education

University 9600

College/Trade School 19770

Secondary 29525

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	30/09/03	Tory in Dixie Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
Eve's backyard should stay Tory. Dan will find out that he can not repeat 1990 even if he is wearing a red coat instead of orange. He kind of reminds me of a guy name Jim Files, who ran for the Grits in 1990 in Simcoe East. Files couldn't get elected as a Tory, so he ran as a Grit, and couldn't get elected either.
	28/09/03	TT Email:
It is worth noting that the Liberal leader's tour is going from Barrie to Orillia directly to North Bay, i.e. driving directly through this riding and it's largest town - Huntsville. That suggests that the Liberal campaign has decided that its NDP-turned-Liberal candidate cannot win here, especially with two other excellent candidates spliting the vote. Norm Miller is well-liked and has a record of working hard. He will win here regardless of the rest of the province, however with a reduced plurality if Premier Eves cannot pull this one out.
	26/09/03	Bob from Etwell Email:
The riding should stay Conservative. If the Liberal's can come out of the Parry Sound District with a 1,000 vote majority over Norm Miller - it should make it very interesting for the night. The town of Parry Sound and area at times can vote Liberal. In Muskoka the town of Huntsville could determine the outcome. The former townsips of Stisted and Stephenson could swing Liberal as they where at one time N.D.P. Some other former townships of Morrison, Muskoka as with the town of Gravenhurst if they go Liberal by a margin of 500 or more could give the Liberal cnadidate the ridng.As of now; New Democrat 07%-09%: Green 08%-10%: Liberal 37%-41% Conservative 39%-42% As of now the riding is leaning Conservative with the gap closing. Do not forget that there are now a lot of new voters [retired people] living here now.
	21/09/03	Gerry Kennedy Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
You know that the old parts of this riding has sent two failure premiers to Queen's Park- Frank Miller and Ernie Eves but they just can't help themselves but vote Tory even if it is a province-wide disaster.
	18/09/03	JP Email:
According to Norm Miller from a All candidates meeting last night, the schools and hospitals have never been in better shape. this got a big round of loud laughs from the crowd, when will he and his cohorts wake up and smell the coffee, how can they keep churning out this false info, do they really have blinders on their eyes and their minds?
	03/09/03	Tory in Dixie Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
Even in a 1987 scenario, the riding is safe for the Tories. This is Eve's home turf. Liberal Midland went to Simcoe North, and Parry Sound gave Mr. Eves one of the healthiest margins ever during the 1987 debacle. The riding that elected Frank Miller for years in the Muskoka part would unlikely desert the Tories now. Mr. Waters will not be elected (again), whether he runs as a Liberal or a Dipper.
	03/07/03	B.N. Email:
I have some historical data to share with Bill J. The riding of Parry Sound Muskoka was represented by Ernie Eves of the PC Party for almost 20 years. Therefore, the electoral results look something like this: 1985- MPP PSM: Ernie Eves, PC. Government: PC, Miller 1987- MPP PSM: Ernie Eves, PC. Government: Liberal, Peterson 1990- MPP PSM: Ernie Eves, PC. Government: NDP, Rae 1995- MPP PSM: Ernie Eves, PC. Government: PC, Harris. Perhaps Bill J could explain to us how this trend is evidence of his claim that Parry Sound Muskoka votes with the government. Quite on the contrary, the riding has shown remarkable candidate loyalty, regardless of government change.
	28/05/03	Bill J. Email:
Let's face it - this riding votes with Government. In the week before the vote, the riding feels the wave sweeping the province and votes in someone who will sit on the Government side. And yes, it seems that Norm is a nice guy (yet quiet and unseen in the back benches of the Legislature), but I think that Parry Sound - Muskoka will go with the Liberals this time given their huge popularity. Not to mention that Ernie keeps pulling down the Tories every day. (fake Magna budget, contempt of the legislature, brown-outs, double cohort, a 2.5 billion deficit, flat platform, etc.) Dan Waters has the experience and grit that it will take to help implement the Liberal platform. This vision will govern the province after the next election. Sorry true blues, but no matter what your spin doctors say, soon Parry Sound - Muskoka will be painted red like most of the rest of the province.
	07/05/03	Craig Email:
This may be Northern Ontario, but the presence of Norm Miller saves the Tories here and keeps it safely in their hands. The Liberals have countered with a former New Democrat and that won't get the job done here - if they had a stronger candidate, they would probably overcome the deficit due to a fast fall in Tory support province-wide, but Norm should keep the seat with a vote split on the left. This should be the only seat north of Barrie that stays in Tory hands. Predicted results: PC 45%, LIB 30%, NDP 17%, Green 4%.
	24/02/03	Panther Email:
I feel kind of bad for the NDP-turned Liberal candidate in this riding after the pummeling he'll be getting from the Stormin' Norman's big blue machine. Let's look at the facts, Miller is the son of a respected, revered, former Premier. This was the former riding of the current Premier. In the by-election here, Norm Miller was golden. He soundly defeated a tough (some might say downright mean) Liberal candidate. Miller has used the last couple of years to build up his name in the riding and it has worked. People love this guy. Miller will win this riding hands down.
	22/02/03	R.J. Email:
I canvassed a number of polls in the southern half of Huntsville of this riding in the last by-election. With a former premier's son running in the former riding of the current sitting premier, most people in the riding have seen little else than Tory. There are pockets of opposition though: a large number of retirees with heath care/homecare issues, general discontent with the lack economic development (i.e. job creation), the expansion of highway 11, the (non-)recognition of northern-residency status issue, etc. This will not be a cakewalk for Mr. Miller Jr. Prediction: Tory hold with a reduced plurality.
	28/11/02	Rich Email:
I agree with your assessment that this is a safe seat for the Tories. Norm Miller will run again as he was chosen as their candidate in a nomination meeting held in September. He has been well received in the community as a whole and the Liberal candidate, Dan Watters, will have a difficult time explaining why he jumped ship from the NDP.
	28/11/02	A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
If it isn't the residual Eves factor that'll keep this Tory, it's the residual Chris Hodgson factor. But the Grit candidate is an interesting one: former NDP MPP Dan Waters, the first of the Bob Rae switch-hitters to actually make a run for the Legislature. And he's got a legitimate chance--but at this point, it's going too far to turn that chance into a prediction...
	19/10/02	Email:
Probably the northernmost seat that will certainly stay in Tory hands (with Nipissing up in the air). This riding is Ernie Eves' home riding, and Norm Miller is a very credible candidate, so if either of them run, this riding is Tory for sure. It seems likely one of them will.

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