Scarborough East

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Scarborough East

Last Update:
9:31 PM 30/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
1:54 PM 29/09/2003

Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)

Liberal Party:
Mary-Anne Chambers

Progressive Conservative:
Steve Gilchrist

New Democratic Party:
Gary Dale

Green Party:

Incumbent:

Steve Gilchrist

Federal MP:

John McKay

Authorized by the CFO for the Scarborough East Provincial NDP Association

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 3602

*STEVE GILCHRIST

20686 49.5%

PETER VANDERYAGT

17084 40.88%

TERRY MALEY

2853 6.83%

CATHERINE FOX

457 1.09%

SAM APELBAUM

368 0.88%

HEATH THOMAS

205 0.49%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 16 460

John McKay

24 019 59.8%

Paul Calandra

7 559 18.8%

W. Paul McCrossan

6 284 15.7%

Denise Lake

1 884 4.7%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 115799

1996 108644

1991 103134

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 30830

20-39 32950

40-59 29115

60+ 15740

Avg Household Income
$59640

Labour Participation 66.40%

Unemployment 10.70%

Canadian Citizen
87.32%

Canadian Born 56.90%

Ontario Born 50.30%

Immigrant 41.98%

Visible Minority 40.47%

Aboriginal 0.62%

First Language

English 73530

French 885

Chinese 3735

Tamil 3625

Italian 2095

Pilipino 2075

Residence

House 61.47%

Apartment 38.52%

Owned 62.98%

Rented 37.02%

Avg Dwelling Value $208843

Education

University 22010

College/Trade School 24150

Secondary 32345

Authorized by the CFO for the Scarborough East Provincial PC Association


	30/09/03	Email:
Scarborough East is going Liberal. No question, surprised you took so long. Prediction Lib 24,000 - 28,000 NDP 8000-10000 PC 7000-9000. Libs could go higher and the others lower. Even blue areas are shifting red. NDP is pockets not Riding wide.
	30/09/03	Hans Email:
I agree this riding ain't going NDP. But I still worry that the strong NDP support will split the liberal vote. As much as I want to see Mary Anne or Gary get elected, even more so do I not want Gilchrist back. (Even though he does have some more liberal ideas with respect to the environment, I don't think anyone with a history of tax evasion has any place in gov't.) If I didn't worry so much about a vote split, I'd probably be voting Green. BTW, for what it's worth, on my street the signs are now: 8 Liberal, 1 NDP, and 1 PC. Oh yeah, yesterday we got a flyer in our mailbox from Sam Apelbaum. That's probably the only piece of election literature I'm keeping! ;-)
	30/09/03	CSM Email:
A lot of time has been spent arguing over who has the most signs. As we all know, the signs are not a strong indication of voter intentions. All parties occasionally place signs on any available space without the knowledge/understanding of the owner or tenant. Signs do indicate popularity, but, more importantly, they indicate how much energy, time and money a campaign has - key factors in success.
	29/09/03	M.E. Email:
As a resident of Scarborough East I think Steve's personal popularity speaks for itself and Steve will yet again be victorious. He has clearly won all public debates and is head and shoulders above the rest. Although the province may drown in a red tide this will be one of the few ridings left tory blue.
	29/09/03	TK Email:
Anyone one in this riding who actually throws a vote to the Liberals needs to have a realty check, Steve Gilchrist is a Heavyweight compared with this Liberal puppet....no chance!!! This riding is Blue!!
	28/09/03	Gerry Kennedy Email:
SCARBOROUGH EAST IS NOT GOING NDP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I live next door to this riding and it will NOT go NDP. Ian Urquhart in the Star today said Mary-Anne Chambers will be in the cabinet in three weeks. The Tories will try to save Gilchrist but unlike Young or Kells he is not personally popular enough to withstand the Liberal wave. Would someone back me up on the NDP thing?
	28/09/03	lrs Email:
With Tories going to opposition- Gilchrist would be a good opposition critic- good in media etc but with massive Lib swing- probably good NDP campaign may mean only 15-20%- I would think that Gilchrist would attract Tory core vote- but Lib victory by 10% ?
	28/09/03	The Big Ape Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Where is Reality Check when you need that guy? NDP pick up? C'mon! Lets be serious! Sign counts are no way to judge the mood of an electorate (I'm guilty of using it too, I'll admit). The NDP are known to be very vocal and their in-your-face approach to campaigning includes the peppering of neighbourhoods with signs. Now the numerical facts are the NDP are doing as well (or as poorly, depending on your point of view) as they did in 99. The current projections are that they'll get 9 seats (likely the same 9 they won in '99). More numerical facts, the NDp won a little under 7% of the vote here last time. Now the Tory vote is collapsing all across Ontario but they are going to the Liberals (now at 48% and projected to get over 70 seats) as will this riding. It seems to me that there is alot of NDP optimism out there, but really the cold hard numbers aren't backing that optimism.
	27/09/03	TM Email:
Scarborough East is going NDP. The Toronto star says that there are more Dale signs than anyone else. Dale can't put them up fast enough. In fact, Gilchrist has attacked Dale, saying that there was no blackout in Scarborough. NDP surprise pick up.
	24/09/03	Hans Email:
Current sign count on my street: 7 Liberal, 1 NDP, 1 PC. Elsewhere in the normally conservative Guildwood Village it's the same story - way fewer blue signs than normal, more red and orange signs. Is this riding really too close to call?
	24/09/03	Gerry Kennedy Email:
JWP. JWP. Read the other submissions. THe undecided poster probably has it the best. Dale might get his deposit back. The key to your statement was "in most parts of the riding". The South of the Guild and the riding's far east are going to vote en masse for Gilchrist. This means the riding as a whole is split. I have it from one of my Tory friends (who I believe has access to their polls) that Gilchrist is behind but catchable (as are Kells and Young). We shall see! And on Thursday night, the Grits shall be laughing. Chambers=45%/Gilchrist=34%/Dale=17%/Others=3%
	23/09/03	Email:
I have no clue how this seat isn't at least listed as up for grabs. Gilchrist isn't going to be able to withstand the demand for change.
	23/09/03	Hans Email:
I previously reported that my street had 1 PC sign and 1 NDP sign. I should now report that my street, normally awash in only blue signs, now has 1 PC sign, 1 NDP sign, and 6 Liberal signs. Since this is a neighborhood normally with a lot of conservative supporters, I can only assume this means bad news for Gilchrist.
	23/09/03	Ping Pong Email:
I'm a little surprised that this riding is still being called a Tory victory. Mary Anne Chambers is an excellent candidate and she should be able to win with the polls so strongly in favour of the Liberals. However, Gilchrist will not be easily defeated. Personal sidenote: If there is one MPP I want to see lose, it is Gilchrist. He is the epitomy of a smug Tory. I find his approach to politics insulting. Listening to him on Global makes me physically sick (not that he is much better than Smitherman or Kormos!)
	22/09/03	L Email:
Given the general collapse of the Tory vote this riding should be moved to "too close to call". What prevents me from saying it should be put in the Liberal column is the NDP campaign which is deceptively strong. Gary Dale has been able to attract a lot of volunteers due to his prominence in the Muslim community (Dale is married to a Muslim woman and is himself a convert) but as Ali Mallah found out in neighbouring Scarborough Centre in the 2000 federal campaign, having a lot of volunteers, money and the firm backing of one community is not enough to win or even get your deposit back (Mallah got about 7% of the vote despite outsigning his opponents). Similarly Sid Ryan had a massive campaign and, looking at signage one would have thought Ryan was going to win hands down in 1999 but he came in third. Dale has gotten a lot of signs up, between 1000 and 1500, and his volunteers will likely have canvassed the entire riding by election day but that doesn't change the fact that this is bascially a very conservative riding. But signs don't mean much except that you have an effective sign blitz crew. Quite often people take a sign because they're being polite or because they like you even if they don't like you enough to vote for you and the vast majority of voters don't have any signs. It's quite likely that NDP support will rise in Scarborough East both because memories of Rae Days have faded and because Dale has run an effective campaign, but that means Dale might more than double his vote and get his deposit back. He will still come in third. The question is will the NDP vote rise enough in Scarborough East to deny the Liberals victory. The Tory vote is collapsing but it will be stronger in Scarborough East than elsewhere in Toronto. If it wasn't for the unusually strong NDP campaign here I'd say the Liberals have it in the bag but in a tight race the NDP may take enough votes from the Liberals to re-elect Gilchrist.
	22/09/03	JWP Email: phillips2240@rogers.com
Well Gerry be shocked, you need to do your homework, and I mean really do your homework, there is something happening here, which I will even admit has taken me by surprise, if asked back in March where the NDP would be I would have said a distant third - thats changed since then. After hearing from a strong source that there had been a Liberal Poll commissioned for Scarborough East and getting a heads up on what the poll found - In most parts of the riding Gary and Mary Ann where running neck and neck with Steve in a distant third - so the big question will become, who will bring the vote out Mary Ann or Gary - SO LETS WAIT AND SEE!!!!
	22/09/03	Karnak Email:
Chambers is going to take this in what will be the squeaker riding in Toronto. She has run an excellent campaign and appears to have a good number of volunteers and signs in the riding. With the Liberals riding high in the polls it is unlikely that Gilchrist will hold this seat unless McGuinty does poorly in the leadership debate.
	22/09/03	David Email:
Too close to call: based on the sign wars it is about even; if anything Gary Dale of the NDP has the most signs. (His signs even withstood "Isabel".) Mary Anne Chambers, the Liberal, had the best reception at the all-candidates and does not seem to have orchestrated it. The Libs and Tories are in a dead heat, and surprise, surprise, the NDP are running a heck of a campaign. And folks, remember they took it in 1990. The straw poll in the park is a dead even three way split. Many voters are desperate to get rid of Steve Gilchrist, but others are so Tory they don't care who the MPP is. Strangely, though, this is thought to be the top NDP campaign in all Scarborough (perhaps along with South West). So much for strategic voting in this riding that is 416, but only just, and is the highest income riding in Scarborough, with lots of former Beaches and Davenport people moving into the new lakefront neighborhoods. Auto insurance could become an issue here, too; lots of car dependency.
	21/09/03	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
The Gary Dale campaign is indeed turning out to be one of the astonishing sleeper stories of the election. By no sane assessment would this have been a top NDP target in 2003--they only won Scarborough East in a tight 3-way in the 1990 Rae landslide--yet by tossing out the timid post-Rae NDP non-target campaign rulebook and running as a maverick, Dale seems to have hit a populist solar plexus that has out-Gilchristed Gilchrist. And what should have been the least likely NDP pickup of the south-of-401 Scarberia ridings has inside-outed into the most likely NDP pickup...relatively speaking, of course...or maybe not so relatively...
	21/09/03	Wayned Email:
This riding is going liberal, PERIOD. Chambers is a really strong candidate who has worked very hard on community issues. Gilchrist, on the other hand is going to be a victim of the massive tory collapse. JWP, the ONLY reason Gilchrist's campaign manager suggested the NDP was doing well, is that they are desperate for a vote split, and nervous because Mary-Anne is doing extremely well. The conservatives now realize that their number is up. The ONLY people talking about the NDP are old diehards who are praying they will hold the balance of power in a minority government. The ghost of Bob Rae still lingers in Ontarian's homes and the NDP is going ABSOLUTELY NOWHERE in the polls.
	21/09/03	Gerry Kennedy Email:
To JWP, I live in Scarborough Southwest (McCowan & Kingston area) and have to go through Scarborough East often. I will concede the NDP is doing phenominally for such a riding that they fluked in '90 and normally are not a factor in at all. That said, I will be nothing short of shocked if they get 20%, let alone win the riding. The Eves campaign is in disarray and the voters of Scarborough East, who tend to be educated and relatively well-off, realize that a vote for the NDP will only result in sending back the stinky Gilchrist for another term, this time as a useless opposition MPP who will try to make (ugh) Flaherty opposition leader. I have it from a very reliable source that the Tories have given up on Scarborough Southwest and Etobicoke Centre and are preparing for third place finishes in Scarborough Centre and Etobicoke North. They will try to salvage the other four but won't be able to win them all. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt in WIllowda! le and Etobicoke-Lakeshore, their two stronger ridings. But I am starting to doubt even those. The Liberals are poised to romp. Mary-Anne is a community activist and her ties in the black community are invaluable here. It is the people who think like the NDP posters here that might prevent her from going to Queen's Park but the Liberals are running such a strong provincial campaign that Mary-Anne will defeat Gilchrist. Chambers=45%/Gilchrist=37%/Dale=16%/Others=3%
	19/09/03	JWP Email: phillips2240@rogers.com
Gerry I don't know where you live, but you say the NDP are no where to be seen, WOW I think you may need to get a car or take the bus and go around the riding, Gilchrist's campaign manager was quoted in saying that he was shocked that we had as many signs, he has never seen that many for before - Derek you said that most people just take signs for the NDP and the liberals, but they don't vote for them, you better do some research thats not the case this time.
	19/09/03	JWP Email: phillips2240@rogers.com
Gerry I don't know where you live, but you say the NDP are no where to be seen, WOW I think you may need to get a car or take the bus and go around the riding, Gilchrist's campaign manager was quoted in saying that he was shocked that we had as many signs, he has never seen that many for before - Derek you said that most people just take signs for the NDP and the liberals, but they don't vote for them, you better do some research thats not the case this time.
	17/09/03	DL Email:
Hans, In Scarborough lawn signs are all over the place for a reason. Many residents don't care! I have campaigned before in Scarborough, and a lot of the time, people will let you put up a Liberal or NDP sign right next to a PC sign ON THE SAME LAWN. Gilchrist was involved in a scandal which could come back to haunt him when votes are cast. Again, this is a race which depends on the leadership debate, but it looks gloomy and blue for now.
	16/09/03	Gerry Kennedy Email:
Why are you predicting Gilchrist? Here's why there's going to be an upset. A) Gilchrist only won by 3,000 votes last time when an nobody ran for the Liberals and the NDP were putting up a strong campaign. This is not a safe Tory seat. B) Mary-Anne has worked very hard. She's ran several times municipally. While she's never won this makes here name recognition MUCH higher than Peter Vanderyagt's. C) The Tories are in free-fall in Toronto. I have it from very reliable sources who did not want me to quote them by name that Scarborough Centre, Scarborough Southwest, Etobicoke Centre and Etobicoke North are lost and they will only win the other four if the provincial campaign turns around immediately. D) Considering that there are pathetically few minorities in the legislature and that this is a heavily black community, Mary-Anne's race is going to, righty or wrongly, work in her advantage. E) THE NDP IS NON-EXISTENT! I'm Not Sure what JWP is thinking but these deluded Dippers theoretically have a chance in only 12 ridings- the nine they hold plus Windsor-St. Clair, London North Centre and Oshawa. They should put all their resources there and not waste time with ridiculously wishful thinking in the other 91 ridings! Geez!
	16/09/03	Hans Email
Just a couple of points: 1) I asked for a Dale (NDP) lawn sign (by e-mail) one day after the election was called. The next day, I got a reply that requests for signs were backlogged - after installing around 800 lawn signs, they were short by several hundred, and had to quickly order more signs. There are a clearly lot of orange signs on the streets this election. 2) Normally, my street is awash with blue signs. This time, there are just as many orange signs as blue. (Not that there are more orange signs than normal. But the usual PC supporters are NOT getting signs.)
	11/09/03	Derek Email:
That's wishful thinking RB. This is the ONLY safe tory seat in Toronto. This race is not as close as one might think. The Liberals made a big mistake here, running a bank vice-president in Scarborough. They should have taken Gilchrist's popular status more seriously. Everyone knows Gilchrist is a dispicable individual, but for some strange reason, he is popular out in Scarborough, where the lack of political knowledge runs rampant. People in this riding are detached from reality, and have no clue what is going on in the province. Gilchrist in a walk.
	03/09/03	RB Email:
CityPulse did a report on Scarborough East tonight and declared it "too close to call".
	24/07/03	JWP Email: phillips2240@rogers.com
Interesting that Steve Gilchrist, attacks Gary Dale, normally you wouldn't attack a third place candidate the way Steve did with Gary, unless Steve and his cronies have realized that Gary Dale is in first place, very interesting!!!
	03/06/03	Rouge Stooge Email:
The Tory legacy (Walkerton, Hydro deregulation, etc.) will be Gilchrist's downfall. People either love or hate gilchrist. The well off in the community see him as a champion of the status quo. The sizeable visible minority community (i.e. a segment of the population that doesn't traditionally vote)may be be energized to come out and vote in large numbers for Liberal viz-min candidate Marianne Chambers. Unlike Gilchrist who rode Daddy's coat tails to success (i.e. Gordon Gilchrist was a longtime MP for the area - who by the way had to resign from parliament following his conviction for tax evasion and was the owner of the Candian Tire Store that Steve used to manage)Chambers has racked up an impressive resume including a V.P. for a well known financial institution. Hope you've been saving your Canadian Tire money steve, becuase you'll be needing it to fund your retirement when you lose
	03/06/03	he Predictanator Email:
Fortunately for Gilchrist, most electors in this riding have very short memories (i.e. His tax evasion scheme, referring developers to his lawyer so that he could shake them down for financial donations, etc.). Edited Last election Gilchrist ram against a relative unknown (Vanderyagt) but only managed to beat him by 8 per cent. Chambers is a Liberal star candidate and as such wil be receiving lost of aid from the party. Gilchrist pitbull image is wearing thin and voters are looking for a credible alternative...Chambers provides that and should win in a squeaker Note/Correction: A sentence from the above statement, which references to the certain "radical elements of the gay community" and the sentiment that most in the community are indifferent to Mr. Gilchrist�s sexual orientation, has been removed after Election Prediction Project received objection from Frank P. Monteleone of Cassels Brock, counsel to the PC party, stating that the statement is �totally without foundation since Mr. Gilchrist is not gay�. While the project team is uncertain as to whether the PC party (or its counsel) keep record of its candidates� sexual orientation, and certainly has no interest to verify, we would like to state, without reservation, that ACCORIDING TO THE PC PARTY�s LAWYER, MR. GILCHRIST IS NOT GAY.
	16/04/03	Francis Light Email:
Mary Anne who? That is all I can say if the Liberals think that they are going to defeat Gilchrist by appointing someone with no political experience than they are in for a long election. Gilchrist has name recognition, love him or not most people in the area will agree that if you need something done he is the person to turn to. His campaign office is open and volunteers working. This election will come down to a battle on the ground. I wonder how teachers in the area feel now that the Liberals refused to let the former candidate (a teacher)run. At least he had a team, an agenda and a real reason for running, I wonder what Chambers has to offer the community. I supported the previous Liberal candidate because I agreed with his education propossals. I do not think Chambers could do more for the community than gilchrist has, the University in the community is expanding like never before, the hospital although emergency rooms remain busy has services never before offered. They sent out information about the new services they offer and I could not believe the service expansion. The waterfront is coming together in our area, as I look out my window I see construction underway to give me access. Look I dont like everything about Gilchrist but I do like to know that he is on my side. A lot of people call him a pitbull I must admit I like having a pitbull fighting for my community. This is my two cents. I will admit I am very dissappointed that this is not a rematch between Gilchrist and Vanderyagt because than we would have had a real choice somehow electing someone I have never met or seen seems foolish.
	10/04/03	On da Monay Email: ondamonay_8676686_2003@yahoo.com
It's time for Steve Gilcrest to open a new Canadian Tire. Looks like Mary Anne Chambers will represent the Liberals in Scarborough East, and if she does, the long-time community champion, graduate of UTSC and self-made success story will rock the vote to ultimately join Berardinetti and Duguid as new Liberal MPPs in Scarborough. After this, Scarborough will be a Lady in Red, while the Tories will be left singing the Blues.
	21/03/03	El Predicto Email:
Here's anther riding where the Liberals have burned up the phone lines trying to find a candidate to take on Steve Gilchrist. Time has run out on the Liberals. They just can't find a good candidate willing to run against Gilchrist. This riding should be moved into the Tory column.
	17/03/03	THE GAMBLER Email:
The Gambler is putting his money on Steve Gilchrist to win Scarborough East. In order to have a race you need two horses. The PC's have Gilchrist who has a winning track record. The LIB's on the other hand can't even find someone to get in the starting gate. Not a good sign of LIB chances here. Gilchrist is going to win this one by default.
	16/03/03	AL Email:
Steve Gilchrist's fall from grace and his grating personality will likely result in the electorate sending him back to the Canadian Tire.
	05/03/03	David S Email:
Not sure who Andrew Cox is, but he predicts Liberal gains in almost every riding. I sense a partisan pattern! He is not familiar with Scarborough East, as is apparent from his posting. To wit: 1) Steve Gilchrist's tax stuff is very old news - 20 years old, as a matter of fact. His constituents know this. They also know that the judge in the case was discredited on appeal in a related case. On this issue, case closed. 2) The local Liberal association is not going to nominate a local councillor to run here. They don't want to eliminate all of their numbers from City Hall, they don't want the one who has been a member of all three parties in less than half my meagre lifetime, and they don't want the one from the other corner of Scarborough. They do, for some inexplicable reason, want the same guy they ran last time. (He was uninspiring as my teacher 25 years ago, and had not improved by 1999.) There is a very large, high-turnout community in the east end of the riding that is home to many teachers and principals. This, combined with the much vaunted strategic voting, should have resulted in a colossal defeat for Gilchrist. However, teachers are taxpayers, they like their income tax breaks just as much as the next guy, and they voted quietly, but in massive numbers, for Gilchrist. (The Liberal barely won his own poll, in that high-teacher community, by 20 votes.) If the Liberals couldn't elect a retired teacher/principal last time around, there's no way they're ever going to be able to do it. 3)Given the high costs of both gas and electricity (even when it's capped), people are more energy-conscious and interested in alternative fuels such as hydrogen. (Gilchrist has been a genuine proponent of research on hydrogen fuels for 20 years - his interest is long-standing, not a political ploy.) 4) It takes a lot to unelect a Tory in Scarborough East. Nothing has happened, at the local or provincial level, to cause a revolt. Steve Gilchrist is going to hold this riding, without a doubt. Editor's Note: Province Wide comments edited out.
	14/02/03	El Predicto Email:
It looks like Peter Vanderyagt is going to be the Liberal candidate again this time. Vanderyagt couldn't beat Gilchrist last time and will come up short again. Vanderyagt will have a hard time finding people to work on his campaign as Scarborough Liberals will all rush to Scarborough Centre to help the high profile, Brad Duguid win that seat. The campaign will get even tougher for the Liberals with the NDP support in the east end of Toronto seeming to be on the rise. Gilchrist is an experience campaigner and will hang on to the seat. Mark this one for the Tories.
	21/01/03	Andrew Cox Email:
Liberal gain. Reasons: 1) In the last two elections, Steve Gilchrist ran as a Tory pitbull "zero tolerance for welfare fraud" tough guy. I quote the November 19, 1995 Toronto Sun, with a story that surfaced after the last election. "Outsted Municipal Affairs Minister Steve Gilchrist was described as a greedy man whose testimony wasn't "worthy of belief" in a 1984 conviction for tax evasion. Judge Milton Cadsby, who presided over the 20-day trial, did not believe Gilchrist. 'He was a very unreliable witness,' show archived transcripts of Cadsby's ruling. 'He not only concealed income by failing to keep records, but he diverted corporate income to his personal bank account. He was clearly enriching himself at the expense of the corporation. His explanations of his conduct are unconvincing, implausible and, in my view, not worthy of belief. The accused in this case did have a motive to evade taxation, and that motive was one common to many: greed.'" Ouch! A few day! s after that story ran, Mike Harris booted Gilchrist from cabinet for good. Tell me that won't be turning off a chunk of PC vote. 2) The Grits ran a god-awful local campaign here last time. They should put up more of a fight this time around. A couple city councilors are nosing around the nomination, according to the Star. 3) Gilchrist has tried to become the Green Arrow of the PC caucus, pushing alternate fuels and such. But after Walkerton, "Tory enviornmentalist" just sounds like an oxymoron. It might help mute the environmental stuff, but I can't see him gaining Green vote. 4) The NDP vote is minimal here, so its a two-way Grit-Tory fight. 5) Let me just point you back up to point 1. Ouch. 6) During the Tory leadership, only 174 people voted in Scarborough East (It was at or below 200 in all three PC-held Scarboroughs, way below the provincial average.) To make matters worse, Gilchrist backed Flaherty, but couldn't win over the membership, who mostly backed Eves. That's ! a sure sign of a weak organization. 7) Gilchrist's combative style and bravado, combined with his vulnerability, will make him a very likely target of anti-Tory forces. All those extra bodies will help ID vote and get it out on election day 8)Oh, yeah, did you see point one? Ouch.
	06/01/03	BR Email:
Gilchrist is a hardworking member. When I was experiencing problems I went to see him he and his staff helped me out by helping me get back on my feet. It is amazing to me how different people are after you have an opportunity to meet them. I will vote for Stev because he helped me and because he has helped preserve the environment. You need only drive through our community to see the results, stores are full there are few empty places. I remember when the Liberals and NDP were in power I could never get ahead now I feel confident about my future for the first time in ages. I will vote for Steve because the others scare me and I know Steve will work hard. Editor's note: This submission was generated from a Queen's Park workstation.
	18/10/02	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
In 1999 Scarborough East was commonly identified as one of the handful of 416-zone likely Tory holds; but the anti-Harris backlash, combined with strategic voting and Steve Gilchrist's abrasive right-wing image, turned this into a marginal, anyway. Then Gilchrist slipped into cabinet--only to be quickly booted out over ethics issues. Since then, Gilchrist has earned his humbled backbench rep as something of a "green Tory", appropriately for a mouth-of-the-Rouge seatholder. Which means, he's still safer than anti-Tories would wish. But only relatively speaking.

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