Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

St. Paul's

Last Update:
9:37 PM 30/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
17 October 2002



Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
Liberal Party:
Michael Bryant
Progressive Conservative:
Charis Kelso
New Democratic Party:
Julian Heller
Green Party:
Peter Elgie

Incumbent:
Michael Bryant

Federal MP:
Carolyn Bennett

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction
Plurality4782

MICHAEL BRYANT
23755 50.57%

*ISABEL BASSETT
18973 40.39%

LARRY SOLWAY
3350 7.13%

DON ROEBUCK
326 0.69%

PHILIP FERNANDEZ
194 0.41%

LINDA MARTIN
188 0.4%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality15 259
Carolyn Bennett
25 358 54%
Barry Cline
10 099 21.5%
Theo Caldwell
5 457 11.6%
Guy Hunter
4 451 9.5%

Demographic Profile:
Population
2001108696
1996103725
1991100537

(1996 census)

Age
0-1917085
20-3939440
40-5926850
60+20360

Avg Household Income

$100950
Labour Participation71.10%
Unemployment6.80%

Canadian Citizen

87.44%
Canadian Born63.95%
Ontario Born51.72%
Immigrant34.56%
Visible Minority18.08%
Aboriginal0.30%

First Language
English71990
French1790
Chinese2440
Pilipino2390
Spanish2280
Italian2195

Residence
House30.86%
Apartment68.90%
Owned32.20%
Rented67.80%
Avg Dwelling Value$395460

Education
University48770
College/Trade School17385
Secondary18475



Authorized by the CFO for the St. Paul's Provincial Liberal Association
29/09/03 Russell Hill
Email:
I'm not going to predict an NDP victory here, but it's likely they will come in second. This was one of the few ridings where strategic voting actually worked in '99, which resulted in Larry Solway's disappointing showing. This time is totally different. Far from being a "weak candidate," Julian Heller seems to running a very strong campaign. It seems that Bryant's support in the ethnically diverse (blacks, Filipinos, Latinos, Portuguese) working-class areas (Hillcrest, Humewood) of the riding has dried up since '99 - as in terms of signage, orange and red are more or less even - not the case last time around. Heller also seems to be running strong in largely Jewish affluent middle class areas like Casa Loma and Wychwood Park (the former is about 3:2 for Bryant, EVERY sign in Wychwood Park is for Heller). Cedarvale, another middle class, largely Jewish area which lies west of Forest Hill is overwhelmed by Bryant signs, with Kelso and Heller running even. Only in Forest Hill, particularly the more WASPy, super-rich establishment area does Kelso have a large number of signs. East of Spadina, Kelso wins the sign war; in the areas west of Spadina and north of Eglinton, Bryant signs probably outnumber Kelso 3:1. All I have to look at now is the yuppie Davisville and Chaplin Estates areas, my guess is that these areas will be overwhelmingly for Bryant. Kelso has by far the most signs (per capita) on public property. Kind of ironic for the party that most cherishes property rights. My (updated) prediction: Bryant 48%, Heller 34%, Kelso 16%, Elgie 2%
28/09/03 MPA
Email:
Well, I'm not insane - I live in St. Paul's and cross it on my way to work. Liberals are clearly winning the sign war in Forest Hill/Deer Park (big surprise there), elsewhere the NDP appears to be tight with the liberals. St. Paul's contains a lot of renters (~70%) and the NDP appears to be targetting those buildings. The presence of Forest Hill within riding boundaries distinctly skews the average household income number, so relying on this for a left-right break is probably misleading. Personally, I've received both NDP collateral in my mailslot early in the campaign and a canvasser at my door last week, while I haven't received anything from the Liberals, PC's, or Greens. That said, Michael Bryant does put out a lot by way of regular mailings and updates, so perhaps he doesn't have to try so hard to establish name recognition. The Globe and Mail also put Michael Bryant on their list of likely Liberal cabinet appointees (as Attorney General no less). This will probably give him a boost. With respect to the other parties running candidates, I haven't even seen a PC sign, while I've seen two Green signs (well, I've seen three - but one of them is actually over the riding boundary in Toronto Centre-Rosedale. D'oh!). Stick a fork in them, they're done. My opinion, Liberal/NDP toss-up, and it gets more of a toss-up the more PC support flags and liberals look like they're cruising to a victory. The strategic voters will shift back to the NDP, and an overwhelming victory on the part of the liberals will depress voter turnout. On the other hand, if the Liberals are less than 10% up on election day, making it more of a contest, then it's signed, sealed, and delivered for Michael Bryant.
27/09/03 Hillcrester
Email:
With all due respect, what is WD talking about? I've been through this riding from Ossington to Bayview, and there are about five Green signs on private property in all of St. Paul's. These "hundreds" WD has seen must have been in Peter Elgie's garage. But seriously: the reason the Green Party sometimes gets multiple percentage points in ridings like Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey or Vaughan-King-Aurora is that the NDP is so marginal out there that for the few who don't want to vote PC or Liberal, the Greens are only slightly less viable an alternative than the New Democrats. St. Paul's, of course, isn't like that. In 1999 this was THE Toronto riding for strategic voting (along with Don Valley East, of course), and as result the Larry Solway showing was dismal even in Silipo country. Basset pulled an impressive (for a downtown Tory) 40%, winning some polls in the east and north, but the strategic vote behind Bryant was greater. This time around, the PCs aren't really trying, and it's obvious. And as the Tory vote collapses, with it goes the strategic vote. For Michael Bryant, the net effect of these two shifts may be neutral or marginally negative. For Julian Heller, it means an easily recovered deposit and a shot at second place (in a bizarre twist, some Tories, conceding that their own party has given up, are voting Heller for the sake of an anti-Liberal vote). As for the Greens, they look like they're running a campaign of sorts in York Centre. Not in St. Paul's.
25/09/03 WD
Email:
What's not mentioned here so far is the Elgie effect. I count signs in over the 100s. He's also a rising star (he's been on the news for at least half the election) and brings a lot of credibility to the Greens by virtue of his lineage (son of a former Tory Cabinet Minister). He's going to blow by the NDP and possibly by Charis as well. Look for his numbers to be surprisingly strong. This is the only riding where the Greens have a shot at coming second, though there are several (especially in eastern Ontario) where they will be a strong third.
23/09/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Considering the affluence of this riding (and Isabel Bassett's past here), I'm shocked at the dearth of Kelso signage, even in places like Forest Hill--we could be looking at a *huge* Michael Bryant mandate here. And as for the NDP, signage can be deceptive, as experience of various Toronto candidates in '99 (including, here, Larry Solway) proves...
23/09/03 P.S.
Email:
The NDP? Are you serious? There's a very small pocket of the riding where they might - might - pull even. In the rest of it, they'll be a distant third.
18/09/03 MPA
Email:
I'd say it's a toss-up between NDP and Liberal. The Liberal incumbent has kept up a steady stream of mailings and suchlike, but the NDP appears to be winning the sign war across the riding. I suspect that the overall polls will determine this one. NDP-ers are willing to switch their vote right to prevent a tory from being elected, but if the liberals are doing really well provincially they'll switch their vote back. I don't think there's an equivalent backflow from Tory to Liberal, so this could be easily be a three-way race.
17/09/03 DL
Email:
Michael Bryant will dominate in this riding. He is a tireless worker, and is extremely popular among the vast majority of residents. Charis Kelso is young too, but a poor candidate. Her intrinsic ties to the awful (and dated) common sense revolution will not help her. The only way the tories had a chance of winning seats like this in Toronto is if they ran on the pale pink platform Eves adopted at the beginning of his appointment. Now that desperation has sunk in, and they have adopted the Flaherty platform, there is essentially no way they can win here. This riding made a statement last time when they sent Isabelle Basset packing.
15/09/03 bellwether
Email: uaro@yahoo.com
On the face of it, Bryant should win in a walk. Last time out he defeated the well connected Tory doyenne, Isabel (hurricane) Bassett by 5000 votes. This time the Tories have offered Common Sense Revolution insider Charis Kelso as cannon fodder. The NDP always trails badly, though Julian Heller is winning the sign wars in the riding's southwest. Most peculiar is Bryant's relationship with local NDP Councillor "Boss" Mihevc. Bryant's website contains links to Mihevc's website and a happy photo-op picture at a library rescue. One assumes that Mr Mihevc is supporting Mr Heller, so why is Byant cozying up to the competition? Pointed questions about the provincial relationship to a Mihevc scheme have been answered with "we do not have a position on that matter". Could this gaffe have the legs to derail Mr Bryant's coronation?
09/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: ericbucholz@hotmail.com
It would be difficult to see how Tory plans for a third majority hinge on taking this seat. Granted, this riding was held by Ms. Bassett, who is now a first lady of sorts for Ontario. It is also true that St. Pauls fell in some of the old riding represented by years in Queen's Park by the Grossmans, and was more recently held by former Tory MP and cabinet minister Barbara McDougall. So, given the history of the riding, I would not be surprised to see a strong Tory showing. But even if we anticipate that the Tories garner momentum in the campaign, this would be competitive at best, and no sure Tory lock. So for the purposes of predicting the winner province wide, I will but this in the Liberal column, allaying charges of overly optimistic predictions.
09/09/03 Russell Hill
Email:
Liberal landslide. I've been looking around the riding and so far, Kelsos presence in terms of lawn signs is non-existent. Heller seems to be faring well. (I'm assuming, btw, that Greens are more likely have signs than New Democrats, who are more likely to have signs than Tories, who are more likely to have signs than Liberals). So far I've looked around ethnically mixed and mixed working-class/professional-class Hillcrest and largely Jewish professional-class Casa Loma (home to many doctors, lawyers and academics: the latter may explain the seemingly strong Heller support there). Bryant seems to be running strong. He's focused on both the working-class tenants and has great appeal among the yuppies too. The conservatives around here tend to be Red Tories and Kelso is an author of the right-wing Common Sense Revolution. The affluent people in this riding tend to be yuppies and/or Jewish and both groups tend to be Liberal-leaning. My prediction: LIB 62%, PC 20%, NDP 15%, Green 2%, Others 1%
06/09/03 Craig
Email:
Isabel Bassett is gone, meaning Michael Bryant will win this one in a landslide. He is a very popular member and the Tories and NDP have weak candidates, similar to Parkdale-High Park. Bryant could close his eyes now, wake up on October 3rd and see the news showing he is re-elected. Current prediction: Bryant 68%, Heller 14%, Kelso 13%, Elgie 3%, others 2%.
02/09/03 Dogbert
Email:
As a tenant living in St. Paul's, I can tell you, Bryant's had adverts all over the riding for the past 3+ years, and regular mailings. In fact, he's consistently had a large ad in the subway at St. Clair West over the same time. His campaign office site was set up and ready to go, oh, sometime back in March or maybe even earlier. He's well-understood to be front-line cabinet material. He's been on Citypulse, Studio 2, Michael Coren's show (recently, with Gilchrist and Kormos - quite entertaining), and who knows what other TV political talk show programs. In short, his profile is always out there, his organization is a well-oiled killer machine, he is articulate and he has top credentials. Speaking of - he creamed Bassett in a cakewalk last time. Check the '99 results, it wasn't even close. The Tories know this and are running a politico as a sacrificial lamb. Anyone who puts up a blue 'PC' logo as their bet/comment for this riding is either a Tory 'plant' or is clueless. A Liberal landslide 'hold', Bryant with 60+ percent of the vote.
27/06/03 AL
Email:
Kelso may be young-ish but as one of the co-author's of the Common Sense Revolution she's hardly new but one of the arrogant privlleged wonks who've never had to work a day in their lives but think they know enough to dump on the poor. Voters will have the chance to "thank her" for the Harris years by giving her a good electoral drubbing at the polls.
25/06/03 Thomas
Email:
Think the PC have an excellent chance to take St.Pauls. Charis Kelso is a breath of fresh air to enter the riding. She represents the new look of the PC party - young, energetic with fresh ideas. This is not your father oldsmobile anymore.
15/05/03 Grizz
Email:
Over 50% for the Grits last time, a popular Liberal incumbant and the Liberals soaring in the polls means that the Liberals will keep this one.
07/04/03 Fred
Email:
Bryant is a bit of a turkey - he's been running his leadership campaign for last 2 years instead of helping the party get ready for the election or working in his constituancy. Despite this lack of focus, he should be able to hold on to St. Paul's. If the grits lose the election, he will have a tough time finishing higher than 3-4th in the leadership race - despite his misguided efforts, his organisation pales in comparison to people like Kennedy and Sorbera.
Editor Note: Please keep in mind that this is "Provincial Election Prediction" not "Liberal Leadership Prediction". :)
15/03/03 lrs
Email:
Liberal MPP would probably be in cabinet- so why would movers and shakers in this riding turn this opportunity down and not continue to vote Liberal?- also prev submissions right that tenants will vote Liberal due to policy on rent controls - NDP vote a wasted vote here
26/02/03 MF
Email:
The Liberals pretty much now have a lock on this riding. Red Tories are a dying breed. This riding was a bastion of Red Toryism in the 80s, but the rightward shift of the provincial Tories and rise of the Reform/Allinace federally have pushed the party into the hands of the Liberals. Michael Bryant is a very savvy MP: his background as a lawyer helps him among the riding's many professionals (and Red Tories), and his campaign emphasis among the working-class tenants has cut into much NDP support. I think the NDP will do better this time around, but not enough to alter the outcome. The Tories' strength lies in Lower Forest Hill east of Spadina. The large concentration of Jews in Forest Hill west of Spadina and in Cedarvale, the young professionals in Deer Park and Yonge and Eglinton, and the working-class Portuguese, Italian, Black and Filipino voters in the western part all benefit the Liberals.
16/02/03 M.S.
Email:
If there was any question in anyone's mind the Tories had a chance in this riding, it was answered at the Tory nomination meeting last week when they chose a Queen's Park staffer as their candidate. The Tories have clearly given up any hope of taking this riding back, and that's probably a wise decision. Bryant has great name recognition, never stopped campaigning, and is clearly one of the brightest stars in the Liberal caucus. Granted, the Tories will still have a war chest left over from Bassett, but I'm sure Bryant isn't hurting for dollars either. This one will stay Liberal.
16/02/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Michael Bryant's a golden boy, to the point of appearing like a provincial Grit leader in waiting--watch him carefully. Though given the kind of Forest Hill-centric riding it is (and the fact that Queen Izzy ran here in '99), don't expect the Eves Tories to simply throw it away with a bum candidate. And the curious high-low demographic form St. Paul's takes means that there's a very strong yet hopelessly isolated NDP pulse in the WSW reaches, sort of like an unmoored slab of Davenport or Trinity-Spadina (and the municipal stronghold of NDPer Joe Mihevc). In fact--and chalk it up to "strategic voting"--the NDP did better here federally in 1997 and 2000 than provincially in 1999. But the PCs are really the only "electable" threat. and Bryant has one cardinal advantage over '99: he's now the incumbent, and no longer the incumbent-slayer. And more formidable than Queen Izzy ever was or will be, consort or no consort...
15/01/03 Simone
Email:
Michael Bryant has been an extremely active MPP. As a tenant I appreciate his useful mailings and the town halls that he holds regularly. He has been high profile in the Toronto media and is an effective speaker in the Legislature. I think that Michael has a very bright future as a politician.
08/11/02 Gabriel Bookchin
Email:
This is almost certainly going Liberal. Despite the conception that this is an "affluent" riding, is not exactly true: this is one of the most diverse ridings both economically and socially. It does have a very high proportion of university graduates, but it is also made up mostly of renters. Michael Bryant was able to win largely because of his attention to the working class areas of the riding. The riding has large Black and Jewish communities, which are both Liberal-leaning (for an analysis of Jewish voting behavior, see my write-up in the Thornhill prediction).
Even the affluent areas are pretty progressive (or think they are, unless of course that "affluence" is threatened. That's why "Red Tories" have often won here). For whatever reason, urban professionals are quite to the left of their suburban counterparts. St. Paul's has a lot of these sort of (pseudo)-left-leaning professionals. St. Paul's also has a lot of "intellectuals" (professors, writers, etc., who will vote Liberal and even NDP), not quite like The Annex (Toronto's Upper West Side?) but certainly greater than in Oakville, Thornhill or the York Mills/Bridle Path area. Ironically, WASP/Jewish Wychwood Park (a quasi-gated community, but without the security systems) which most people probably think is made up mainly of lawyers, stockbrokers and CEO's is actually heavily populated by U of T faculty, and gives high support to the NDP, perhaps the best example of the strong "limousine liberalism" of the riding. Personally I like Larry Solway but unfortunately he did pretty poorly in the riding.
If anyone knows Chicago very well, St. Paul's is kind of like the Congressional district that covers parts of Chicago's North Side as well as the older suburb (kind of like North Toronto) of Evanston (home of Northwestern University) and the heavily Jewish suburb of Skokie. There's a lot of professional WASPs and Jews in the relatively affluent urban neighborhoods ("lakefront liberals")of the North Side, who vote for Democrats. The working-class Black, Latino and Asians cast their vote for Democrats as well. Then there's the sort of lower-middle-class white ethnic Catholics (Irish, Italian, Polish)who cast their votes for the Democrats as well, although many of them are social conservatives who resent what comes across as the elitist cultural liberalism of the lakefront liberals. Go figure.
06/11/02 Andrew Cox
Email:
Bryant will be reelected. Reasons: 1) Bryant is too ambitious and industrious to get caught being lazy. He will have hit every door in the riding three times by e-day. 2) The NDP vote in the SW corner of the riding dried up in 1999 and shows no signs of returning. Without an A list candidate, the NDP will stay way under 10% here. With very limited prospects, an NDP A-list candidate is a pipe-dream. 3) The riding's Tory base is strong and firm, but has nowhere to grow. Once you get outside Forest Hill, the riding is mostly renters. They aren't going PC after the rent control debacle. Their vote tops off at 40%, even with their queen bee, Isabell Bassett, on the ballot. 4) Bryant is gaining a high media profile (I saw him on the National last night) and a strong reputation in the riding. He gives swing voters a reason to back him: he works hard for them. 5) Italian and black voters in the North-west part of the riding and yuppies homeowners east of Yonge provide a! strong base of Liberal support. Tough seat to take from the Liberals. Impossible with Bryant as the candidate.
04/11/02 IanB
Email:
Voters in St. Paul's would be foolish to defeat Bryant -- candidates of his quality are few and far between. He's young, energetic, hard-working, honest, and has credentials that cannot be argued with. Expect to see Bryant at Queen's Park after the election.
17/10/02 B.C.
Email:
Michael Bryant will likely hang onto St. Pauls for the Liberals. He is locally popular and his profile is growing both inside and outside of his riding. He has been an effective critic of the Attorney General and this affulent riding will likely return Mr. Bryant to the legislature.


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