Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Thunder Bay-Superior North

Last Update:
5:46 PM 07/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
14 October 2002



Political Profile:

Candidates:
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Liberal Party:
Michael Gravelle
Progressive Conservative:
Brent Sylvester
New Democratic Party:
Bonnie Vivian Satten
Green Party:
Carl Rose

Incumbent:
Michael Gravelle

Federal MP:
Joe Comuzzi

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction
Plurality13385

*MICHAEL GRAVELLE
19249 60.9%

NATHALIE GALESLOOT
5864 18.55%

ED LINKEWICH
5683 17.98%

ROBERT WOITO
431 1.36%

CARL ROSE
382 1.21%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality8 963
Joe Comuzzi
15 241 48.1%
Doug Pantry
6 278 19.8%
John Rafferty
6 169 19.5%
Richard Neumann
2 753 8.7%

Demographic Profile:
Population
200175237
199679680
199181625

(1996 census)

Age
0-1921865
20-3924735
40-5919415
60+13660

Avg Household Income

$58791
Labour Participation64.50%
Unemployment11.90%

Canadian Citizen

97.87%
Canadian Born88.12%
Ontario Born74.42%
Immigrant11.75%
Visible Minority2.04%
Aboriginal8.79%

First Language
English61375
French4935
Finnish3100
Italian2345

Residence
House75.15%
Apartment22.74%
Owned67.67%
Rented32.33%
Avg Dwelling Value$119743

Education
University12500
College/Trade School18545
Secondary24115



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06/09/03 Craig
Email:
Michael Gravelle should easily be re-elected here. There is no real Tory vote here, and there still won't be since the economy is in real trouble in Northern Ontario. The NDP should finish second but won't even be close, Gravelle could be looking at a cabinet post if the Liberals win (which isn't looking as likely now). Current prediction: Gravelle 59%, Satten 27%, Sylvester 11%, others 3%.
12/05/03 J.S.
Email: unclejoesayshello@yahoo.co.uk
The Liberals have a 48% majority to play around with. The Tories are in freefall and the NDP stuck in a rut. Liberal Hold.
12/05/03 Grizz
Email:
With over 60% of the vote last time, the Liberals have a sure-fire keep here.
25/03/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Now the senior provincial Liberal running in the Lakehead, Mike Gravelle's got the mandate and support that guarantees another term at Queen's Park. That said, the NDP sort of token-targeted this in 1999, fueled by the proximity of Howard Hampton and the fact that TBSN encompasses most of Gilles Pouliot's former Lake Nipigon stronghold. Unfortunately, what was left of Lake Nipigon following redistribution was but a hinterland fringe totally swamped by Gravelle's Port Arthur fiefdom. At least TBSN managed to be one of 1999's two Ontario seats where an NDP non-incumbent landed in second place (the other being Algoma-Manitoulin next door)--but Gravelle nearly tripled-and-a-half that tally, anyway. Better they try for TB-Atikokan this time, where there's no pesky Liberal incumbent to battle off.
13/03/03 ME
Email:
To Petrol Pete: What about David Ramsay. He is the most senior member from the North and actually has ministerial experience. While I think Gravelle and Bartolucci are both pretty competent members, Ramsay is much more of a minister material. But then, if experience and competence are what make or break in the Liberal caucus, Dalton would not be leader, and people like Bradley or Conway or Phillips would be much more prominent than names like Duncan, Caplan, Puralator-tello...
12/03/03 Petrol Pete
Email: Petrolpete@hotmail.com
Gravelle should be concentrating on increasing his margin to position himself to be a potential Northern Affairs of Natural Resource Minister if the Grits take Queen's Park. Gravelle works all corners of the riding hard, travelling regularly from T-Bay to Marathon to Longlac and back, has a solid Liberal pedigree and has been an effective critic. With McLeod retiring and Hampton a winner in K-RR, Gravelle will be the power player in the Northwest and he knows it. Expect him to vie with Bartolucci for Grit top dog status in the north. The more solid performer will win his choice of MNDM or MNR and my bet is on Gravelle who better understands internal Lib politics.
28/02/03 Panther
Email:
Gravelle will hang on to this riding. He won with over 60% in 1999, while the NDP and Tories didn't even hit 20%. Neither of the those two party's appear to be putting up any credible candidates. Gravelle hasn't made any major mistakes recently and his popularity is still as high. A big Liberal win in this riding.
02/01/03 GK
Email:
I know nothing about Michael Gravelle and very little about Thunder Bay (I live in Toronto). However, this is the most likely seat for the Liberals in the whole province in light of the results of the last election.
14/10/02 Amanda K
Email:
Michael is the hardest-working politician in Northwestern Ontario, so he should be re-elected easily, and with a huge margin. Last time he got over sixty percent of the vote, and this time he should do even better - the Tories are going to concentrate on Thunder Bay - Atikokan, since they think that with Lyn McLeod retiring, it is winnable, and many NDP supporters can't help but vote for Michael, since he is ideologically fairly left-wing, and undeniably honest, hard-working, and skilled. It's nice to be able to make a prediction for someone who not only will win, but deserves to: if we had more politicians like Michael, people would be a lot less cynical about politics in general.


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