Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Toronto Centre-Rosedale

Last Update:
4:49 PM 07/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
14 October 2002



Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
Liberal Party:
George Smitherman
Progressive Conservative:
John Adams
New Democratic Party:
Gene Lara
Green Party:
Gabriel Draven
Freedom Party:
Silvio Ursomarzo

Incumbent:
George Smitherman

Federal MP:
Hon. Bill Graham

Authorized by the CFO for the Toronto Centre Rosedale Provincial NDP Association

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction
Plurality4116

GEORGE SMITHERMAN
17756 38.9%

DURHANE WONG-RIEGER
13640 29.88%

JOHN SEWELL
8822 19.33%

HELEN BRESLAUER
4019 8.8%

JOSEPH COHEN
392 0.86%

PAUL MCKEEVER
344 0.75%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality18 054
Bill Graham
26 203 55.3%
Randall Pearce
8 149 17.2%
David Berlin
5 300 11.2%
Richard Walker
5 058 10.7%

Demographic Profile:
Population
2001122882
1996114416
1991105581

(1996 census)

Age
0-1918310
20-3950455
40-5929060
60+16590

Avg Household Income

$78275
Labour Participation68.20%
Unemployment9.90%

Canadian Citizen

81.32%
Canadian Born54.93%
Ontario Born41.67%
Immigrant41.65%
Visible Minority37.25%
Aboriginal0.90%

First Language
English68750
French3195
Chinese7955
Pilipino3205
Tamil3025

Residence
House13.81%
Apartment85.83%
Owned21.75%
Rented78.25%
Avg Dwelling Value$332435

Education
University50870
College/Trade School19545
Secondary22745

Authorized by the CFO for the Toronto Centre Rosedale Provincial Freedom Party Association



Authorized by the CFO for the Toronto Centre Rosedale Provincial Liberal Association
01/10/03 Charles Hayden
Email:
I'm going to predict a very slim NDP victory here. Gene Lara is running a very strong campaign focusing on the large number of tenants in the riding. Smitherman has the most signs, but there's only about half as there were a few weeks ago. A lot of them are on public property right in front of houses. In yuppie Cabbagetown, Lara and Smitherman are running even in signage. Many people in St. Jamestown, Regent Park and Moss Park are inspired to vote by the Lara campaign. Renters (approx. 75%) throughout the riding are responding positively in the riding to the NDP's call for real rent control. The riding's large gay and lesbian population is turned off by Smitherman because of his "hiding" of his sexuality when campaigning to Sri Lankan Muslims in the riding, who have been told by community leaders not to vote NDP because of their support for gay marriage, as well as McGuinty's "request" that the issue of gay marriage be delayed until after the provincial election. Smitherman seems to be dominant only in yuppie Yorkville, and running even with John Adams in upper-crust Rosedale. Smitherman has done virtually nothing for this riding except try to get attention for himself. Smitherman's performance at the all-candidates meeting was lackluster, but his campaign planted "cheering sections" at all the debates. Smitherman got in mainly because of strategic voting last time around, and his 38% was not particularly impressive. My prediction: Lara 42%, Smitherman 41%, Adams 12%, Draven 4%, others 1%
01/10/03 JJWL
Email:
Smitherman has a great track record, high profile, top notch operation, and commanding lead in the sign war in virtually every neighbourhood. Lara is a charming lady, but not a very effective candidate. Adams comes across as a good guy, but his party is a write-off. I expect that Smitherman will earn between 45% and 50% of the vote on election day.
29/09/03 Craig
Email:
I've settled on Smitherman holding on here, but only at the expense of the Tories. They are in freefall mode, opening up enough votes to allow the Liberals to win narrowly over the NDP who should pick up most of the Sewell votes and a few others here and there. Current prediction: Smitherman 44%, Lara 39%, Adams 13%, others 4%.
20/09/03 Gerry Kennedy
Email:
George in a landslide! I don't know what the NDP is thinking but they've clearly got problems as most of Gene's signs are on public property! Smitherman will be at the cabinet table in 4 weeks.
17/09/03 Addie-Lefty
Email:
I don't think that anyone should say that George "owns" this riding. It dosen't look like many people like him, seeing that he is smug and arrogant and well not the best MPP!!!!!i have been walking around the riding and i see very few George signs... i walk around old cabbagetown, regeat park and the village and see Gene & Geroge have about the smae amount, maybe more for Gene. But I hear that people here just don't like him. and that might be enough to unseat him. If John Adams can take more votes this time from like rosedale and yorkville, while poulling yuppie tory votes out of St. Lawrence. Whil Gene sweep the traditional NDP areas of Regeat & Moss PArk, cabbagetown and st. jamestown... and lets not forget that the NDP is always competative in church/wellesley usually comes in second and often first (no matter who the candidate is cause the NDP is the strongest on Gay and equity issues). George might just lose out to Gene if the Grits do poorly in TO. I can see whoever win wont win by more than a couple hundred votes... but i am betting Gene!!!!
11/09/03 Bryan
Email:
Smitherman will absolutely romp in this riding. Unfortunately, he displays a brash and arrogant personality, which could cost him some votes, but not nearly enough for him to lose his stronghold. This is his turf. He is not well liked in Rosedale, but the gay neighborhoods will come out for him in droves.
09/09/03 Charles Hayden
Email:
This is an NDP/Liberal tossup. Gene Lara is running a very strong campaign, and NDP support seems to be going up in urban Toronto. Smitherman of course has the incumbency advantage and a Liberal lead in the polls. I think Conservative support is dwindling in the riding, and I don't think a Red Tory like Adams will make much of a difference.
A lot of people are mentioning the condos and saying that means PC support will go up. I disagree. Most affluent urbanites are somewhat progressive, especially on social issues, though a good deal are classist hypocrites. The Tories have neglected the City, and even affluent urbanites feel that way. It's people in areas like Oakville, Woodbridge and York Mills who don't care, as they spend their lives in the suburbs and rarely spend time in the City. They're the big Tory backers. So most of the condo zones will be going to Smitherman, not Adams. Adams really only has Rosedale, and even there Smitherman will make a strong showing.
Cabbagetown has a lot of left-leaning professionals who will give a lot of votes to Lara.
07/09/03 A
Email:
Toronto Centre Rosedale and predecessor riding St. George-St. David have always been provincial ridings which the NDP is on the cusp of winning. Carolanne Wright ver nearly upset Ian Scott in 1990 and even in 1995 when New Democrats were in free fall NDPer Brent Hawkes scored an incredible 30% of the vote meaning a shift of 500 votes could have elected him. Last election the NDP vote collapsed here due to the candidacy of progressive icon John Sewell as an independent. This election it looks like the NDP has a strong campaign behind Gene Lara. She's still a longshot but if the McGuinty campaign collapses provincewide a surprise NDP upset is possible here.
05/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: ericbucholz@hotmail.com
I would only say Liberal because I don't see this as a must win for the Tories to keep their majority. It would not be shocking for Smitherman to be reelected, but this is by no means certain, either. Both Tories and NDP have very strong bases of support here, and with strong candidates. If we look at the voting patterns, match ups such as Ian Scott and Carolyn Wright, then the close match in 95 and the split vote in 99, I don't see this as any different. An inner city NDP resurgence keeps the Grits from breathing easy, and might help the Tories. On the other hand, with some posters talking about the added yuppification of the riding, a stronger Tory vote might help the NDP.
04/09/03 Craig
Email:
This appears to have gone from a safe Liberal seat to what could be a real classic. The biggest variables left are where the John Sewell vote in 1999 will go, and how much the Tories might lose. The condos on the waterfront will be the only thing that will save the Tories from potentially losing their deposit. This riding has many poor areas, however, and those will likely lean to the NDP (including ex-Sewell votes). I think Rosedale will be a mixture of Liberal and Tory votes, but that is only about 10% of the electorate. In the end, it could be a great race between Smitherman and Lara, since Smitherman doesn't seem to be that popular in his own riding. Current prediction: Lara 35%, Smitherman 35%, Adams 22%, others 8%.
04/09/03 downtown
Email:
What I've heard is that there is a lot of resentment toward George. The people in this riding don't like him but they also don't like the alternative. Gene is a higher profile candidate this time for the NDP and we might see some disaffected Liberals move that way. I would be surprised to see George better his numbers from '99 and I'm betting that they will fall maybe as low as 30%. John's only hope is that this scenario comes true so he can win the riding with relatively little support. The demographics have been slowly changing here over the years as more expensive condos are thrown up along Bay St., in Yorkville, and on the Waterfront (however the real effect of the building will be noticed in the election following this one once the dozen or so condos under construction are complete). People who were once inclined to live in the suburbs are now living right downtown which can only help the tories. As long as the Liberals maintain their lead in the polls province-wide, this riding will likely stay with Smitherman.
17/07/03 Mark
Email:
The Go Gene Go campaign is in overdrive, with the latest oracle poll providing ample evidence (26% t.o support) of NDP popularty in TO, and that would be saying that Gene is creeping up on Smitherman. I heard (from a non-partisan source) that there was strong support for Gene at last weekend's Regent Park bbq compared to George-with mayor candidates trying to align themselves with her. I also caught wind of Gene and Howard's news conference addressing issues of significance to the riding-including a strong pro-safe streets and parks message.
06/07/03 D. McIntyre
Email:
Gene Lara is a well known advocate for tenant rights and has fought hard against discrimination in the area. Tenants make up the majority of the voters in the riding and are very unhappy with Smitherman. That plus not having Sewell screwing up the election and siphoning off the progressive vote will mean a tight win but a win nonetheless for the NDP's Gene Lara.
25/06/03 WD
Email:
Oh, wake UP people. A strong impetus for government change, a popular and outspoken (and out of the closet) local MPP. A 10% lead on the PC candidate last election when Dalton was an albatross around every candidate's neck. This is such a LIberal riding, i can't believe any of you wasted your time writing about it. My sources tell me the NDP have already thrown in the towel here.
01/06/03 MF
Email:
This is one of the NDP's best chances for a pickup in Toronto. Gene Lara is a very strong candidate and stands a good chance here. However, she's still a bit of an underdog. To those who say the Liberals are up in the polls, so how can the incumbent Smitherman lose?: Easy. I don't know for sure, but it seems that most of the increased support for the Liberals is coming from suburban middle class voters who supported Harris in '95 and '99. This is arguably the most diverse riding in terms of both ethnicity and SES. You have the upper class folk in Rosedale, the yuppies of Yorkville and Cabbagetown, the gay community in Church and Wellesley, and the city's poorest communities, Moss Park and Regent Park. There's a lot of enthusiasm for Lara, a tenant organizer and community activist, in Moss and Regent. It's important to note that this riding is made up of more than three-quarters renters, and Smitherman has not been supportive of rent control. Despite the fact that Smitherman is gay, the NDP has a far superior stance on gay rights and Lara can definitely use that to her advantage among the riding's substantial population of gays and lesbians. So where will the votes go? Of course we don't know the exact numbers. In upper-crust Rosedale, the only area where the majority aren't renters, it's a toss-up between Smitherman and Red Tory John Adams. Yorkville will probably go for Smitherman, although perhaps Layton's coat-tails will bring out some left-yuppies to the NDP. Church and Wellesley could be also potentially be an NDP stronghold, though Smitherman will also fare well there. Cabbagetown is kind of like the Annex, with a lot of its mostly professional population active in progressive causes. And Regent/Moss/St. Jamestown will probably cast most of its votes for Lara, now that "strategic voting" is no longer an issue.
30/05/03 Beanie Baby
Email:
Too close to call. I would have said earlier that no one would be able to take out Smitherman. But if anyone can do it, it is John Adams. Arguably the best of the new candidates the Tories have, John is smart, articulate and well known in the riding. Smitherman's act is wearing thin. He never gets all the facts together before he trundles off and opens his mouth. All he knows how to do is criticize. He is the kind of guy best suited to the Opposition, not government. If the Tories manage to make some headway this summer, my money is on Adams. If the Tories don't make a major move up the polls, it could go either way.
28/05/03 Jer
Email: jeremy_dutton@hotmail.com
I think this will be a very interesting riding to watch come election day, depending on the province wide poll results for each Party. John Adams is an ideal Tory Candidate with both excellent enviromental and business credentials, a rare combination. If the PC's can narrow the gap in the polls province-wide, then he might have a chance here, especially if the NDP runs a strong campaign. If however the Liberals hold their high poll numbers, like M.S said, I can't see why TCR would elect George as an oppostition MPP and not do so when his party was going to form the government. For the time being, I predict a Smitherman win,
26/05/03 Jalil
Email:
i'm not that connected with the politics scene in the area, but i know a great number of people in moss and regent who are into gene and what she has been saying. especally some church groups they feel that gene can listen to them and they see her all the time. idon't know what they -the ndp did in 99 or before bob rae, but i hear talk starting to heat up especially in my community and know geroge is speaking for people that dont live here.
26/05/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Going back to Craig's prediction and other comments, I still can't see Smitherman defeated, nosirree; but I can't see the Tories collapsing below deposit level, either. Even at their low ebb of 1990, they were still 23% in the former St George-St David. Federally, Tory + Reform/Alliance has = over a quarter of the vote over the last three elections. Rosedale + condo-mania sees to it that PC maintains a strong base here, Smitherman or no Smitherman. And John Adams, it mustn't be forgotten, earned a very strong, even "progressive" rep as a Red Tory municipal councillor--and constituents still remember. It doesn't mean he'll win; but in the race for second, at least, he's the clear favourite...
21/05/03 Grizz
Email:
To all the NDP brothers and sisters, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, children of all political persuasions, stop dreaming delusions of grandeur in Central Toronto. This is going to be a liberal keep. Look how badly the NDP fared in 99 (and don't give me that 4 way race non-sense). With people itching for a change in government and Liberals looking poised to do that, this will be a Liberal keeper.
08/05/03 PRF
Email:
Lots of conjecture and spin-doctoring. So here are some facts: 1990-Liberals went into the campaign with a huge lead in the polls; they lost. 1995-Liberals went into the campaign with a huge lead in the polls; they lost. 1999-Liberals went into the campaign with a narrow lead in the polls; they lost. 2003-Liberals have a huge lead in the polls...
No one can say for certain what will happen, but I will say this about Toronto Centre-Rosedale: If the Liberal vote diminishes during the campaign (as it did dramatically in 1990 and 1995 and slightly in 1999), this riding is up for grabs.
Smitherman won in 1999 with one of the smallest shares of the vote of any winning MPP in the entire province. The local NDP vote fell apart to such an extent that you can't blame that on a four-way race. 1999 was pretty much a three-way campaign between Sewell, the PCs and the Libs, and Smitherman only got 38% -- less than the Libs got province-wide. This despite the fact the Tories were so reviled in downtown Toronto (remember Al Leach???).
If the Liberal vote shrinks again this time (like it did in 1990, 1995 and 1999), Smitherman will have a tough race on his hands -- especially because of the local candidate dynamics. Until I see a poll a week prior to E-day showing the Liberals at 45%-plus, to pick a definitive winner in this riding (where three-way races are the norm, regardless of who forms gov't) is foolhardy.
07/05/03
Email:
NDP membership numbers are well over the thousand mark (for the person inquiring about actual numbers). That in itself won't win the election for Lara, but look at the 1999 results- one of the Liberals' most "prominant" members could only garner 38%? With the tories looking more and more like Liberals, plus the new SARS relief packages C/O Ernie Eves, I wouldn't expect that Tory vote to syphen off quite so quickly. If anything, expect some of the more business oriented Liberals to go back to the tories. In the mean time, the NDP has fielded an excellent candidate with tremendous influence in the community. Plus with both Provincial AND Federal leaders taking this election very seriously, and working very hard on the campaigns, I'm predicting Lara will squeak by Smitherman. This should be an interesting race to watch, and possibly an early test of the Layton-factor if he decides to play a key role in this race in particular.
05/05/03 DK
Email:
I live in TCR and from talking people in the riding/community I get a feeling that: 1) voters in the riding see Smiterman as a showman with few substantial qualities beyond that and 2) tenants in particular are pretty upset that Smiterman has been against the NDPís rent freeze propositions. Of the NDPís central campaign catches fire this will be a riding to watch.
04/05/03 ME
Email:
Of course the NDP membership went up. There was a leadership race for chrisake! The Liberal membership is going up by a few hundreds each weeks these days, too. Though it should be interesting to see what the gays (the the lefties Liberals in general) on Smitherman's campaign think now that their candidate support the least gay-friendly leadership candidate...
02/05/03
Email:
I do agree with the last post, but only in priciple. I think that the Grits are the gov't in waiting but i really think that the prediction about the results will be much closer, especially for the NDP. They have an amazing candidate and the number of members in this riding has more that double and tripled. I can't be sure of the actual numbers but from what i was told the number grew from about 300(estimation on my part) to around 900-1000(may be more, again don't have exact #'s casue this isn't my riding) i really think that with the candidate the NDP has they can really give George and the grits a good race. Grits 40-50%, NDP 30-35% Tories 15-20%. but nothing is for sure!!!! i'm hoping for a NDP sweep of TO ridings including Davenport, PHP, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Scarborough SW and ofcourse TCR.
01/05/03 Craig
Email:
Liberals to hold and strengthen their support here. The surprising 30% for the Tories in 1999 is bound to evaporate in thin air, with most of that going to the Liberals. NDP + Sewell in 1999 = 28%, still would have only finished third. Some of that vote might go to the Liberals as well, which adds up to a romp. Predicted results: LIB 57%, NDP 23%, PC 13%, Green 4%.
18/04/03 Jefferson
Email: jefferson_d2003@yahoo.com
Hey, MK! Big words do not a good posting make. Sometimes it takes a little creativity to get your point across - and Smitherman has delivered. You may want to chortle at his antics, but I think that he was responsible for pressuring Eves into paying back his severance after his re-election. You may think that he doesn't have acuity, but someone has already pointed out that he made the government withdraw a contraversial piece of legislation from an omnibus bill. How often does that happen? Now Smitherman is in the news again fighting against the government's wasteful Throne Speech consultation brochures. Smitherman has the tenacity and the passion to get it done. He isn't just in the news, he's changning the news. Maybe instead of wasting your time reading the dictionary, you should spend some of your free time reviewing a political roadmap.
01/04/03 MK
Email: kites3@yahoo.com
although mr. smitherman seems to get his face in media, it is far from the spotlight and always appears to be gratuitous and far from serious. while politics can (and should) be a fun pursuit, the fact remains that mr.smitherman represents a prominent and important riding in the province and has shown little political acuity and diplomacy in this post. Mr.smitherman may be holding some of the cards as an incumbent, but gene's tenacity and commitment to *crucial* issues will serve her well as they hit the campaign trail. the fact that gene is clearly warmer, more articulate and a person that is *reflective* of the majority of the TCR voters can only enhance her cause.
30/03/03 ARL
Email:
Rumour has it that John Adams is running with an eye to raising his profile in the area so that he can run municipally in Ward 28 this fall against Pam McConnell. In any case, he poses no real threat to Smitherman and with no John Sewell running this time as an independent the NDP has a good chance at coming in second.
21/03/03 Paul
Email:
John Adams has got some trouble. Late last year, George Smitherman defeated the entire Tory ranks over a pension issue, forcing the Minister of Finance to withdraw a contraversial piece of legislation from a budget bill. If George Smitherman can beat the whole of the Tory caucus, I don't fancy John Adams chances. John is in over his head on this one.
16/03/03 AL
Email:
Slitherman has pseudo-NDP councillor Pam McConnell in his pocket (they share supporters lists and endorse each other) which should cement him in Cabbagetown and the St. Lawrence neighbourhoods. He's also got the gay village sewn up. John Adams is unknown south of Bloor street and in any case, his former city council seat next door so his muncipal experience won't help him here.
15/03/03 lrs
Email:
Unless the Tories come up substantially in 416 area- the PCs will be lucky if PC candidate not finish third- to someone outside of TO,Lib MPP always in news-seems appointed attack-dog attending other parties' announcements- if NDP candidate threatens LIB in this seat- won't some former tory voters in north part of riding hold their noses and vote Liberal(remember the Liberals are not promising personal income tax increases and the well off tory voters do not need private school credit anyway)
15/03/03 Derek L.
Email:
I think are wasting time going on and on about the personal qualities of the local candidates. Don't people realize that with very rare exceptions, 95% of people pay no attention whatsoever to the local candidates in their ridings and instead just vote the party line? Here is how I see it. The Liberals won this seat in 1990 while getting crushed across the province. The win it federally by huge margins. Smitherman won by a decent margin in 1999 while his party was losing across the province. It is clear that Liberal support is going to be higher this time and the Tory vote will be lower. I look forward to seeing an ex-Toronto City Councillor who opposed amalgamation and used to attack Tory urban policies now try to be a Tory apologist. The NDP candidate may have some profile in a small segment of the riding but she is no John Sewell or Brent Hawkes for that matter. I'll bet that 99% of voters have never heard of her. I see Smitherman winning rather easily unless the NDP gets into the high 20s province-wide (unlikely) and a rising tide raises all ships.
09/03/03 Stevie C
Email:
Smitherman should have this riding locked up. Whether it is local issues or provincial issues, Smitherman has emerged from his first years in provincial politics with alot of respect for his hard work and his passion for the people in the communities that make up downtown. It takes a special commitment to represent such a diverse riding, and Smitherman has proven he has the moxy to do so effectively.
28/02/03 PRF
Email:
"on a personal level they absolutely hate his gut" There's the rub. George, through his actions and words, has demonstrated a contempt for various people in the riding. His penchant for cheap theatrics has left a bad taste in some quarters. He also appears to be devoting a great deal of time and energy to Barbara Hall's mayoral campaign. Is George taking his local provincial campaign for granted? If he is, he could be in for a surprise. Don't get me wrong -- to knock off George, especially with the Liberals riding high in the polls, would be a major surprise. However, the Liberal support -- just like George's local support -- is about a mile wide and an inch deep. John Adams and Gene Lara are both very capable of peeling it away. My prediction: Keep a close eye on this one.
27/02/03 ME
Email:
PMK's assessment on Smitherman is most absurd (though not surprising. Another submission made under that name in Scarbrough-Southwest was caught being "Yet another "Queen's Park Citizen" singing praise for a MPP" by the editor, and we all know how Queen's Park staff are in touch with the local ridings...). George sticks his nose into every damn thing there is in the riding. As someone who lives in the riding, I know many people get tired of him being a media hawk sometimes, and even more dislike him as they think he is too much of a politician. However, even his strongest critics acknowledge that George is one of the most effective MPP. Most social activists accept that fact and are planning to vote for him, even though on a personal level they absolutely hate his gut.
27/02/03 PMK
Email:
Former Toronto Councillor John Adams is an ideal PC candidate for this riding. Look for a much stronger campaign that will surprise the Liberals. MPP George Smitherman, has has made a big splash at Queen's Park, unfortunately, he is so invisible in his own riding that most voters wouldn't know him if they ran him over in their cars.
25/02/03 MF
Email:
This riding is Smitherman's to lose. He fits the riding fairly well, and holding over the left-yuppies in Cabbagetown, Yorkville and Summerhill, the large gay community, upper-crust Red Tory Rosedale, and the poor and working class communities of color on the old city's near east side (St. James Town, Moss Park, Regent Park).
The Tories cannot win here. It was doable in the 1980s (ie. David Crombie), but with Red Toryism as a dying breed they have no chance (There's a similar trend in the US as well with the death of "Rockefeller Republicans": Manhattan has no Republicans in the state legislature or in Congress, even the Upper East Side, the old bastion of Rockefeller Republicanism, is now considered safe for Democrats). They have tapped their 30% of the vote, almost certainly mostly from Rosedale and Moore Park, the most affluent and "suburban" areas of the riding. I think about a fifth of the riding's population lives in those areas. Assuming they cast about a quarter of the votes (affluent people vote at higher rates), and about 55% of the Rosedale/Moore Park vote is PC, then there's 14%, basically half the PC vote. In the rest, only a fifth goes PC and it's hard to see the numbers increasing enough to elect a Tory. Many of the affluent people in this riding are in fact fairly left-leaning, far more so than in the suburbs.
The NDP stands a good chance here if Lara runs a strong campaign. He has roots in the large Filipino community, and has been very active with tenants east of downtown. If he can appeal to the large Black and Asian communities in the east, and Jack Layton's coat-tails help him in the left-yuppie areas, and the NDP picks up a significant number of votes in the gay community due to the NDP's superior stance to the Liberals on gay rights, the NDP can win it. It's an uphill battle, but certainly not impossible (as the NDP is approaching 20% in the polls).
Editor's note: Ms. Lara is a female candidate.
24/02/03 Not Non Partisan
Email:
John Adams is a terrific candidate for the Tories and will make huge inroads in Rosedale and among the thousands of new condos in the south. People shouldn't make the assumption that this is the same riding as in 95 or 99. No Sewell will help NDP and in turn help Adams.
16/02/03 M.S.
Email:
It's a bit funny reading the comments from the NDP and Tory hopefuls in this riding saying George will have to fight on all sides. I remember in 1999 how the NDP thought they had a great candidate, the Tories thought they were incredibly sly in getting Durhane to run for them, and then there was the Sewell factor. At the end of the day, George won relatively easily. Now he has four years of incumbency on his side, excellent name recognition, a healthy war chest, a remarkably well organized team and it doesn't hurt that NOW Magazine named him on of the top MPPs in Toronto. Last time, Smitherman won with a party that lost. It's hard to see him losing when his party and Leader are doing even better than before.
04/02/03 PRF
Email:
Gene Lara won the NDP nomination last month at a very energetic and boisterous meeting. Lara will undoubtedly be helped by Jack Layton's recent victory at the Federal NDP leadership convention. Layton was at the nomination meeting and is quite a popular figure in places like Cabbagetown and St. Lawrence. Combine that with Lara's vast contacts and community connections in St. James Town, Regent Park and Moss Park, and you've got the makings of a strong, impressive NDP campaign. John Adams' emergence as the Tory challenger makes it even more interesting. Adams should do very well north of Bloor -- definitely better than the Tory candidate in '99. Which means the incumbent Smitherman may be threatened from both sides of the spectrum. A repeat of the fierce three-way races in '90 and '95 is definitely a possibility here. Keep a close eye on the province-wide polls -- the party with the most momentum come the election may very well take this one in a nail-biter. With the usual assortment of fringe candidates in this riding, don't be surprised if the eventual winner garners less than 35 percent of the vote on election day.
07/02/03 tomas
Email: tobardu@hotmail.com
from what i see the new candidate for the ndp is wel known around st jamestown and the area. not sure about her background but heard she was a politician in the phillipines and can pull alot of people together like jack l. did in the leadership race- i'd be more comfortable voting for her probably even more of a veteran than george.
30/01/03 In Discreet
Email:
John Adams is a terrific candidate and has lots of electoral experience in this riding. He has all the local credentials and with a stronger NDP the scenario looks much more like 1995 than 1999
02/01/03 PRF
Email: paulandtim@sprint.ca
The NDP is holding its nomination meeting on Friday, January 10. With more than 1,200 members eligible to vote, the meeting should be very well attended. The two candidates are Joel Dick, a young lawyer who has been active with the local riding association for a number of years, and Gene Lara, a very well known member of the riding's large Filipino community who has done a great deal of work with St. James Town tenants. Without the Sewell factor and the NDP's increased popularity in the polls, this riding may be a close three-way race, as it was in 1990 and 1995 (when it was known as St. George-St. David).
11/12/02 Craig S.
Email:
George Smitherman is enormously well-liked, and has so far managed to straddle the line between the Rosedale bourgeoisie and the Cabbagetown socialist bloc -- he's probably more vulnerable on the left flank than on the right, but that won't be enough to unseat him.
26/11/02 ATGS
Email:andrewsadler@lweb.net
Take the interesting circumstances of 1999 out of the picture, and this turns into a riding the NDP should be able to win. The NDP is also polling significantly higher than in 1999. Then at 12% and now at 18% (latest Environics), there are half again as many NDP votes out there and many of those will be in a riding like Toronto Centre-Rosedale.
16/11/02 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
This would normally have the makings of a 3-way; but having endured 1999's bizarre Sewell-ridden race, "Wayland" Smitherman's hit-the-ground-running knack for publicity and community service (best MPP in the NOW Poll--and he's Liberal!) more likely ensures him a margin worthy of his Federal counterpart Bill Graham--regardless of sexual preference. Though on paper, both PC and NDP still has what it takes to be a contender. The 1999 NDP result was gutted only because its ground troops shifted to Sewell, and with a gay-conciliator candidate like Kyle Rae they'd have a chance--but erstwhile NDP voters are even more likely to be "Smitherman socialists" now than in '99. And considering that this was supposedly toxic Al Leach territory, PC in '99 scored a scary 2nd place (and "moral victory" over John Sewell) with a "star" candidate of uncertain calibre, basically sweeping Rosedale and the condo zones. And there are more condos now than in '99--and Rosedale, remember, has been the home of Oilcan's Ice Queen Isabel. But faced with the indefatigable Smitherman, they're all better off waiting 'til the seat becomes open...
27/10/02 A.D.
Email:
I don't think that this will be a cake walk for George, if the NDP can run (again i will say it again) a credible and popular candidate, like either of the councillors for the area then George will have to watch out in the south Regent park area, and the island. He might even have to watch out for Champagne socialist in Cabbaggetown and Yorkville areas. George is the "gay" MPP and has only ever spoken out when it comes to gay issues. Even with Dalton and the fed Grits not supporting most gay issues like marriage. He's an odd man out in the Liberal party. If the NDP can run a gay candidate then George will have a hard fight cause the NDP has always been stronger on Gay issues than the Grits. They were the only gov't to even try, without being pused, at bringing in marriage and equity laws. Too close right know, wait till the NDP nomination than we will have a better idea.
11/10/02 DH
Email:
Liberal George Smitherman is the man to beat. The NDP finished fourth here last time. No threat. The Tory vote in Toronto is collapsing. They fell from 30% to under 10% in the Beaches-East York by-election last year. No threat to retake any seat in downtown Toronto. Independent John Sewell couldn't make himself relevant under the best possible conditions with Mike Harris making the riding a seething hotbed of resentment. No threat. Smitherman has a high media profile in a riding where beating up Tories is popular. He also has deep connections in the gay community, Regent Park, St. James Town and even Rosedale. Smitherman reelected in an openly gay waltz.


Information Submission

Return to Toronto Regional Index
Ontario Provincial Election Prediction
© 1999-2002 Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com - Email Webmaster