Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Windsor-St. Clair

Last Update:
3:30 PM 01/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
3:36 AM 20/09/2003



Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
Liberal Party:
Dwight Duncan
Progressive Conservative:
Matt Bufton
New Democratic Party:
Madeline Crnec
Green Party:
Chris Holt

Incumbent:
Dwight Duncan

Federal MP:
Joe Comartin

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction
Plurality4212

*DWIGHT DUNCAN
17383 45.09%

*WAYNE LESSARD
13171 34.16%

MIKE ROHRER
7241 18.78%

DARREN BROWN
339 0.88%

RALPH KIRCHNER
263 0.68%

JANET SHORTEN
159 0.41%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality401
Joe Comartin
17 001 40.8%
Rick Limoges
16 600 39.9%
Phillip Pettinato
5 639 13.5%
%

Demographic Profile:
Population
2001109046
1996106108
1991103124

(1996 census)

Age
0-1929010
20-3932870
40-5926695
60+17560

Avg Household Income

$62146
Labour Participation64.90%
Unemployment8.30%

Canadian Citizen

94.71%
Canadian Born78.19%
Ontario Born72.17%
Immigrant21.42%
Visible Minority9.10%
Aboriginal0.80%

First Language
English78225
French5115
Italian3395
Arabic2245

Residence
House74.80%
Apartment24.77%
Owned67.97%
Rented32.03%
Avg Dwelling Value$136056

Education
University19095
College/Trade School23160
Secondary34295



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01/10/03 PJ
Email:
In all honesty, Windsor-St. Clair can go to either Liberal or NDP at the beginning of a campaign. Whoever works the hardest will win and that is why Comartin won the federal election. It was not the CAW, as Limoges and his supporters had said. The fact is, Limoges chose to ignore his main group of support in Tecumseh. He didn't even bother to meet those constituents. So, in protest, Tecumseh didn't bother showing up to the polls. Duncan on the other hand has done a lot of campaigning and I think his hard work on this campaign will pay off. Windsor-St. Clair votes on actions...not party.
30/09/03
Email:
I must argue with you on the support of the CAW and local 444, if you would have happened to drive by the union hall in the past few days you would notice that only one NDP sign remains there and that is for Pat Hayes, the signs for Crnec and Blackburn have been removed. I wonder why? maybe it is because the CAW is not behind them as you claim.
28/09/03 rgm
Email:
This is for reality check.The CAW in Windsor does NOT support or ever will support Liberals.The windsor district labor council has endorsed all NDP candidates and as of today Caw local 444 will putworkers into Crnec and Blackburns campaigns.So reality come back to reality ,Dwight is clueless when it comes to autoworkers and the CAW we have never supported him and NEVER will!And by the way the CAW has over 9 workers working full time on Pat Hayes campaign.
25/09/03 The Big Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
I must reply to the posting by RL. The Liberals are way too strong and have an incumbant seeking re-election. Had there been no incumbant (such was the case in the Federal by-election in Windsor West...however my feelings after listening to people on the ground is that Brain Masse will have an uphill battle next spring...but thats another election), then maybe this might have been an NDP steal, but now there is no chance at all. NDP will have a respectable showing, but no wins in Windsor.
22/09/03 RL
Email: rleone@uoguelph.ca
And they said Comartin could never win. I think this is one of the ridings the NDP can sneek from the Liberals. The federal byelection win has bestowed some confidence to the party in Windsor. This one will be one to watch.
19/09/03 AL M
Email:
I think its about time this riding turns red on this site, the NDP and surely the PC's have no hope in hell in winning this riding nor any other around it. Duncan has outsigned the NDP by 25 to 1. Windsor Star collumnist endoresed Duncan today and the people on the road love Duncan. The name recognition is very high and out there. Duncan will sweep this riding 10,000 +
16/09/03 The Big Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
I went to play hockey in the Forest Glade area of this riding last night and did a little sign counting. The sign count results: 1 PC lawn sign, 4 NDP lawn signs, 34 Liberal lawn signs. True this is not a very accurate way to take the public's pulse prior to an election and it was only in one neighbourhood, however much of Windsor-St Clair is made of neighbourhoods like Forest Glade (Read: middle class with most homes being directly influenced by the automotive industry). These people seem likely to keep the Liberal MPP. The conservatives have no hope here and the NDP campaign has gone flat. Liberal keep for sure.
10/09/03 Reality Check
Email:
Here's Craig in serious need of a reality check once again. Craig just doesn't understand the CAW. The auto workers in Windsor know Dwight Duncan because he's spent a lot of time with them. They don't know Crnec and she can't relate to life on the shop floor with the CAW the way Duncan has. The Liberals level of support is 3.5 to 1 over the NDP which means they won't be losing a riding like this one to the NDP. Crnec was a bad choice for the NDP but it wouldn't have made any difference. Duncan was not going to be beaten this time.
10/09/03 Joe Horneck
Email: joehorneck@hotmail.com
This is brutal. Duncan is going to win easily. Ken Lewenza of CAW local 444 has been quoted on the radio and in the newspapers that CAW does not plan to help the NDP candidates in Windsor and is instead focused on Pat Hayes out in the county. Gord Henderson local Windsor Star political columnist wrote an article saying that if you find anyone foolish enough to bet against any of the four Liberal candidates in the area take the bet. What more could the unions look for in policy then what the liberals are already offering on the auto and border files?? The autoworkers aren't stupid and recognize a good deal when they see it and that is why they are not going to fight for any of the local candidates none of which are blue collar. This is a lock for the Liberals as are the other three Essex/Chatham races and this area end of story.
09/09/03 M.S.
Email:
Okay, this is getting ridiculous - it's time to start calling some of these seats, starting with this one. How could any objective ovbserver possibly think the NDP has a chance in this riding? Howard Hampton's campaign is falling apart. Today he was in London doing an event at 2:30pm. His public schedule is empty after that. It just says 'overnight - Windsor'. Maybe they're walking from London to Windsor, how else can you explain why they didn't want to hold a rousing rally in this supposedly NDP friendly city? And what's their big Windsor event? Is it at a plant gate? No. Is it a gigantic rally in a union hall? No. In this city with two sitting federal NDP members, the best they can do is a small room at the Holiday Inn. And then Hampton is running out of town as quickly as possible. When Howie can't spend more than half an hour in Windsor, and can't get enough supporters to have a real rally, you know they're in trouble. This is proof positive that Windsor St. Clair is going Liberal in this election. The NDP have given up on Windsor, and their campaign is falling apart.
08/09/03 Daisy
Email: daisy2306@hotmail.com
This one is perplexing. I'm not sure why this hasn't already been called for the Liberals. I think there is general consensus that Duncan is secure and there is no chance for a potential pickup for the NDP in Windsor-St. Clair. The main reason is essentially that Duncan won by over 4000 votes last time, and province-wide the Liberals are likely to get a higher percentage of the vote than last time and the NDP and PC are likely to get a lower percentage of the vote, which makes this a done deal. But even if that doesn't happen it is already over. Please consider the following:
-Duncan beat an NDP incumbent in 1999, and in 1995
-This is the first time Duncan has ran in the exact riding that he has represented for 4 years, and his name recognition must be significantly higher than in 95 or 99
-Duncan is hugely respected within the riding for dealing with the Union Gas retroactive billing issue last year and helping to bring the satelite medical school to Windsor
-The NDP candidate has little name recognition and little profile
-The NDP candidate comes from the social activist side of the party not the labour side, which may work well in downtown Toronto but is a huge problem in Windsor
-A lot of the union leadership in Windsor are going to stay neutral
-The PC candidate has no name recognition or profile at all, and the Liberals are bound to steal votes from the right.
-A certain percentage of people will vote Liberal because the Liberals have a chance to form the government and Duncan will be in cabinet, while the NDP have no chance to form the government, and if the PCs win, Bufton has no chance at cabinet
Conclusion: This really should be called Liberal now.
08/09/03 Mambo King
Email: Everybody Mambo!
I don't know who this Caig is but he has no idea what he's talking about most of the time. The CAW not supporting Crnec is a victory for Duncan, anyone can see that. With the Liberals running at the mid 40's in the polls, and the NDP at 12,how can anyone think that the NDP could defeat Duncan? This riding should be marked for the Liberals by the end of this week.
04/09/03 Craig
Email:
While the CAW has not endorsed any campaign (just saying they are anti-Tory), I think that several things will still lead this riding into the NDP column. The presence of two federal NDP MP's increases the confidence of Madeline Crnec (who will likely throw all their Windsor resources here since Pupatello is too strong), and gives a critical resource to work with, despite the fact she is not the most well-known candidate. There will be no strategic voting here - the Tories will be a distant third and probably won't even get their deposit back. Duncan has the incumbency factor and the fact that the Liberals are poised to form government on his side, but Crnec comes out of the health care field and it is also an important issue for blue-collar workers. Current prediction: Crnec 48%, Duncan 43%, Bufton 7%, Holt 1%, others 1%.
24/07/03 Call Me Shades
Email:
I noticed that Thunder Bay Atikokan was changed from a toss up to Liberal. I hope this is a sign of things to come and more seats will be assigned to each of the parties very soon. I would put Windsor-St.Clair at the top of the list of ridings to be put in that catagory. Dwight Duncan has too many advantages over Crnec. Dwight has continued to raise his profile in the last eight years he's served at Queen's Park. Duncan is also seen as a sure thing to join a McGuinty cabinet if the Liberals pull off a win. Most importantly, Dwight has always worked very closely with the CAW in Windsor and has fought a number of battles on their behalf. That's why we didn't see a CAW member running against Duncan in this campaign. Crnec is just not the kind of candidate who can whip up anywhere near enough support in Windsor to come anywhere near Duncan. This riding is a lock for the Liberals.
18/07/03 Hi Tech
Email:
Dwight Duncan has been a key member of the Liberal team that roasted Chris Stockwell in the legislature this spring. Not only did Duncan help expose Stockwell but he also reminded the voters in his riding that he's a fighter. They like that down in Windsor and will give Duncan another victory.
10/07/03 Mayor McCheese
Email:
The Tories are never a factor in Windsor and the NDP didn't find themselves a candidate with blue collar, labour credentials. Dwight Duncan is going to be re-elected. There is no doubt.
28/06/03 Bender
Email:
I don't know where Scoop Jackson gets his information, but he's right about one thing. The CAW are not supporting Crnec in Windsor. Without the CAW on her side, Crnec cannot win this riding. I say Duncan is in for his biggest win ever.
20/06/03 Andrew Cox
Email: Andrewcox101@hotmail.com
Just as an important public service announcement, Vector is the polling agency of record for the NDP. Considering the timing of the release mere days after COMPAS showed the NDP at 11% and the "just low enough to not be newsworthy but high enough to reassure our core that we aren't tanking" finding of 19% for the NDP, it raised a little suspicion from me. It would be kind of like Navigator (PC campaign co-chair Jamie Watt's company) putting out a survey saying Ernie got a big jump in the polls off his platform. So I wouldn't look to Vector for comfort, brothers and sisters.
20/06/03 JS
Email: New Email: jarrow_crusade1936@hotmail.com
NDP gain. It's a federal NDP seat and was close in the 1999 election. The demographics also help the NDP here, as does their improving poll numbers. (By the way, I've had enough of "scoop jackson" claiming to have "seen" secret polling data etc. Any idiot can do that with any riding. I could predict an NDP win in Etobicoke Central, claiming to have "seen" a secret poll).
02/06/03 Scoop Jackson
Email:
My NDP contacts told me this week that a couple of unions in Windsor put up some money to do a poll on Windsor-St.Clair to see if Crnec had any chance of beating Duncan. The numbers came back showing Crnec trailing Duncan by over 20 points. This confirms why the CAW has decided to stay neutral in this riding rather than traditionally supporting the NDP candidate. Duncan is safe.
28/05/03 Jay Bird
Email:
The Compas poll had a tiny sample and a similar poll with a similar sample size earlier in the week by Vector had the NDP at 19%. Suffice it to say, it's not the be all and end all. Not to mention the fact that the Liberals have entered the last three elections leading in the polls and still lost, lost, lost. The backlash against the federal Liberals, two strong NDP MPs, a strong NDP organization on the ground and the utter weakness of Dalton McGuinty could cost Dwight Duncan his job.
23/05/03 Crystal Ball
Email:
More very strange posts on the Windsor-St.Clair site. Looking at the National Post today and reading that the Liberals stand at 51 per cent and the NDP are dead last at 11 per cent, it's hard to imagine any way a Liberal incumbent like Dwight Duncan would lose to Madeline Crnec. It just doesn't make sense to predict a NDP win. I would think Duncan will keep his job.
13/05/03 Reality Check
Email:
Craig really needs a reality check in Windsor-St.Clair. The Liberals win the election and drop from getting 45 per cent of the vote to only getting 35 per cent? Doesn't make any sense. Duncan defeated an incumbent in Windsor last time by over 4000 votes. This time he faces a no name candidate. People in Windsor voted for Duncan twice when the Tories won the general election. Now when it looks like a possible Liberal win, the people of Windsor aren't going to get rid of Duncan when he could finally be a member of the governing party.The reality here Craig, is a big win for Duncan.
12/05/03 Grizz
Email:
From what I've been hearing (I live in Windsor West), this riding looks like one that the NDP could take. Mr. Comartin, the NDP MP for the riding is a hard worker and I'm certain he'll be doing his best to get the NDP candidate elected. Not to mention that this riding is where the automotive plants are, the CAW can be a force to be recond with.
04/05/03 Craig
Email:
Current polls have the NDP at 16%, and unlike in Windsor West, the Liberals have a would-be backbencher (most likely) if they form government. Combined with strong work from the federal MP's and the unions, they should come through with a surprising victory, leaving Dwight Duncan as one of only a small handful of Liberal incumbents losing their seats. No real Tory vote here means the Liberals have not a lot of room to grow from attrition. Predicted results: NDP 41%, LIB 35%, PC 7%, Green 6%.
14/04/03 THE GAMBLER
Email:
The Gambler is putting his money on Dr. Madelin Crnec to win Windsor-St.Clair. This is another one of my exclusive upset specials. Dr. Madeline will edge out LIB Duncan thanks to the union help she has in her corner. This will be a clost one but the NDP ned it more. Take Crnec to win by a nose.
14/04/03 Hugh
Email:
I believe that the NDP will win this narrowly. I think the PC will gain votes, but mainly from Libs, so I can see a slight win for the NDP. I wouldn't be entirely surprised if the Libs did win the seat, however.
09/04/03 Scotty
Email:
April 5 EKOS poll results. Liberals 53% Tories 34% NDP 11%. The NDP are finished. That means Dwight Duncan will be re-elected with a bigger win than last time.
08/04/03
Email:
The Comartin machine barely won in the general election. Duncan could easily take out Comartin if he decided to run federally. Watch Duncan score a huge win against an unknown New Democrat and no nominated Tory. You'll have to save your popcorn and suspense for another riding.
06/03/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
The last of the red-hot Liberal-NDP horseraces? Perhaps it's a concept otherwise rendered extinct by the strategic desire to "stop the Tories". But here, in the heartland of the federal NDP's Ontario comeback, it makes sense--and a primary reason is that despite any "Ernie's hometown" pipedreams, it's the absolute no-hope bottom of the Tory barrel, where PC hit a ghastly 3-4%ish range in 1987 and 1990 and Harris-era recovery only took PC to the high teens. Furthermore, the long and pulverizing NDP tenure of Dave Cooke has still left its local imprint--in fact, if Cooke decided upon a provincial comeback, he'd more likely have the seat handed to him Sorbara-style than suffer an Ed Philip-like humiliating footnote. The chemistry is such where PCs are almost as likely to vote NDP (or reflexively PC, for that matter) in order to stop the Grits as to vote Grit in order to stop the NDP. There's still a lingering sense that Dwight Duncan peaked in his 1996 leadership race, and Sandra Pupatello's high profile does little to dispel that perception (nor do the courtroom-garb antics of his ex-wife). Still, he *is* Liberal--and that sure helped in 1999. But that was *before* Windsor's Comartin-Masse one-two punch. It's a real turning of tables--for maybe the first time ever, Windsor's federal NDP tail is wagging the provincial NDP dog--but the local New Democrats *are* dying to extrapolate that federal success back into the provincial field, and since Sandra P. looks unbeatable, this (and maybe the next-door sleeper, Essex under Pat Hayes) is their best chance...
03/04/03 Rob D.
Email:
The NDP have nominated Dr. Madeline Crnec, a local chiropractor and environmental activist. She is not unknown - a google search reports her leading a local campaign against cosmetic pesticide use by the city council, for example. Her profile seems similar to that of successful federal NDP MP and lawyer Joe Comartin (i.e. professional education, environmentalist background). I think she will enjoy strong support from the Party and from the unions in the area and will take this seat for the provincial NDP.
03/04/03 Rob D.
Email:
The NDP have nominated Dr. Madeline Crnec, a local chiropractor and environmental activist. She is not unknown - a google search reports her leading a local campaign against cosmetic pesticide use by the city council, for example. Her profile seems similar to that of successful federal NDP MP and lawyer Joe Comartin (i.e. professional education, environmentalist background). I think she will enjoy strong support from the Party and from the unions in the area and will take this seat for the provincial NDP.
01/04/03 Stelco Steve
Email:
My brothers and sisters in the CAW will make sure the NDP win in Windsor.
18/03/03 Joe Horneck
Email:
Efforts by the tories to recruit a high profile city councilor have failed and so with it goes any hope of a split in this riding. High profile union leaders like Buzz Hargrove have endorsed the Duncan campaign because of the strength of the Liberal Auto Policy. The NDP still do not have a candidate and the names being throughout as possible candidates are inexperienced people with no community profile or even union connections. Duncan will sweep all aside I think he'll double his margin to 8,000+.
18/03/03 El Predicto
Email:
Windsor Federal NDP MP's Joe Comartin and Brian Masse have nothing to do this spring other than make sure their party takes Windsor-St.Clair from the Liberals. No question the NDP have made a comeback in Windsor and that should be enough to defeat Dwight Duncan. I still stand by my prediction that if the NDP pick up one new seat in Ontario it will be in Windsor-St.Clair.
16/03/03 AL
Email: andylehrer@sympatico.ca
The Comartin machine will set its sights on winning this riding provincially and has an excellent chance of winning.
04/03/03 Bill H
Email:
Rumour has it that the NDP have been turned down by several high profile potential candidates and are being forced to re-nominate Wayne Lessard. Duncan increased his plurality over Lessard by more than 3900 votes between '95 and '99. Expect a similar increase, again, this time.
04/03/03 Nathan Hauch
Email:
I totally think that the Ontario NDP will pick up Windsor St. Clair. Don't forget, the Liberals voted with the Tories for Hydro Privitization -- something that will not go over well with voters (and judging by the NDP's platform, they're not going to let the Liberals get away with this). Also, Lessard did come in second place, so it's entirely possible for the voters of Windsor-St. Clair to switch to the NDP. Lastly, there are some major other issues that the Liberals have faltered on, which will not go over well with voters, namely their refusal to raise the minimum wage immeadiately (they want to do this over four years) and their refusal to implement a rent freeze for tenants.
26/02/03 El Predicto
Email:
I'm flattered that L. Garniss is tracking my predictions. I have to stand by what I've said about Windsor-St.Clair. The last election in this city was the federal by-election which the NDP won. At the time the by-election was called the Federal Liberals were running at around 52 per cent in the national polls and the NDP were at about 12 per cent. Yet the NDP were able to win another seat in Windsor. Getting back to what I said before. Did winning that by-election pump up NDP hopes in Windsor? Sure it did. Is the CAW going to work for the NDP in this election? Yes they are. Even a hard line Grit like L. Garniss has to admit that the NDP could win this riding. That's why I'm predicting a NDP win.
25/02/03 L. Garniss
Email:
El Predicto has commented on 23 "swing" ridings and predicts the Tories in 16, the NDP in 3 and the Liberals in 4. The NDP winning this riding is wishful thinking by desperate Tories. Mark this one for Duncan.
25/02/03 Bill H.
Email:
Dwight Duncan is a popular, well respected M.P.P. in his riding and within the Liberal Party. There's no lack of volunteers for either Duncan or Pupatello. The NDP flooded this riding in '99 with volunteers from all over the southwest and couldn't take it with an incumbent candidate. Duncan's been out campaigning with lots of volunteers. Neither the Tories or NDP have a candidate. I wonder who realy does have the volunteer problem? Duncan will win this easily.
25/02/03 GHill
Email:
Duncan has been an effective MPP, both locally and on the Provincial Scene. No serious observer of Windsor politics would suggest that he will have any trouble retaining his seat
21/02/03 El Predicto
Email:
If the NDP pick up one riding this time it will be Windsor-St.Clair. New Democrats from all over Southwest Ontario will flood into Windsor, much like they did during the federal by-election which they won easily. Having two federal NDP members in Windsor has revived the party in this boarder city. Traditional CAW support is back in the NDP camp and they still carry a lot of weight here. Liberal Dwight Duncan will also have the same shortage of workers he had in 1999 as Windsor Liberals tend to migrate to the much more popular Sandra Pupatello in Windsor West. Mark this one down for the NDP
16/02/03 M.S.
Email:
First to JF - you sound like you're a Tory or NDP staffer trying to pretend to be a really dumb Liberal staffer. You can't possibly be close to Dwight Duncan, otherwise you would know HE was the Liberal House Leader who negotiated the NDP official party status in 1999. To ATGS I would ask you to point to one single piece of this so-called good NDP research in the last two years. The last session of the legislature saw too big scandals - expenses and the pro sports tax credit, both found by the Liberals. And of course you'll come back with the hydro issue, but the fact is that issue is dead and over. Bringing us back to this riding, despite the bizarre debates on this website, it will safely be Liberal following the election. Dwight Duncan is one of the best campaigners the Liberals have, and he's been fighting the NDP all his life - and winning. There's absolutely no reason to believe this time will be different.
10/02/03 Andrew Cox
Email:
One other thing. That 22% poll result looks pretty much flat-out wrong. The latest numbers have the NDP at just 9%. That's on a Feedback research survey of 1000 people, which is a little more robust that the Environics tally of just 400 people (all call-backs from an earlier survey) the 22% came from. You can see the 9% survey at www.ocufa.on.ca. There is also some interesting analysis of research on the double-cohort and attitudes towards the PC government's handling of post-secondary education. Very demoralizing if you are a Tory.
04/02/03 J.F.
Email: deanmil1@hotmail.com
Correction ATGS, the only reason the NDP have official status with 9 members (when it's supposed to be 12)is because the LIBERALS allowed it during the Peterson days. Maybe you should check your facts. As well, what excellent research skill sare you referring to? The fact that they ask the same Hydro and Health questions every single day? wow, impressive.
Editor's note: This submission was again generated from a Queen's Park workstation, and being Queen's Park staff J.F. really should do his research and know that David Peterson has nothing to do with the official status the NDP currently enjoys. This status was negotiated after the 1999 election, which McGuinty initially refused but later agreed in exchange of extra questions from the NDP's share during question period.
03/02/03 ATGS
Email: andrewsadler@lweb.net
If all Windsor Liberals are as intelligent as J.F., the NDP should win this riding hands down. Yes, the NDP has official status -- and is well renowned for the quality of their current members and superb research staff. Even their opponents have been known to wonder how NDP research manages to outshine the much better funded Liberal caucus staff on a regular basis.
30/01/03 J.F.
Email:
Duncan is a strong voice for his constituents. Windsorites know the NDP doesn't even have official party status in the Legislature and by that alone, realize that voting for a NDP candidate would not help advance their issues in the least bit. Not to say Duncan should win by that alone. He is always being proactive in the Legislature and in the community. There should be no question about his safety to win this seat.
Editor's note: This submission was generated from a Queen's Park workstation.
21/01/03 Stephanie
Email: stephaniegarneau@hotmail.com
dwight duncan is liberal house leader and is guaranteed a pretigious cabinet position when the mcguinty liberals form government. the voters of windsor-st.clair know this and wouldn't throw away the oppportunity to have such an influential man represent them. if dwight were a joe-nobody-do-nothing in the liberal caucus, then it would be easier to see how voters might switch over to an ndp rep., but as it stands, he is not and hence, the voters will not.
19/01/03 M.S.
Email:
Of the two Windsor ridings, all parties will likely have to put more effort into this riding. That said, Duncan will triumph again. Everyone always says this riding is too close to call, and Dwight always walks away with it easily. Besides, the two biggest NDP names in Windsor are now sitting as federal MPPs, so the well is running dry of credible candidates.
05/01/03 Joe H
Email: joehorneck@hotmail.com
Peter Kelly said "Support for PC party will crumble in areas like this, thanks to the skyrocketing hydro rates" how exactly does that help the NDP as he predicts. Can you honestly say that you think disaffected Tories would vote NDP, I think not they'll go Liberal for sure. The NDP only wins when there is a reason to protest Liberal governments they dislike. Liberals by 4,200 last time I say 6,000+ this time Windsor has had its protest.
05/12/02 SM
Email:
The NDP are doing better in Ontario provincially than federally (22% vs. 13%). This area has been a traditional constituency of the NDP, and it looks like things are looking up for the NDP in general. The tories have done so poorly in past elections, all the NDP candidate has to do is make people aware of that, and few would-be New Democrats will be voting Liberal in the name of "strategic voting". No matter how you cut those percentages, the tories don't stand a chance, and the public's not so stupid as to not recognize that. Combine this with a revival of the local NDP and NDP/social activist in the area, and you've got yourself a narrow NDP win.
19/11/02 JFB
Email: bretonjf@hotmail.com
I think it will be a NDP win in Windsor after Comartin and Masse success. The Labour is strong and the federal NDP race will probably be an important advertising.
13/11/02 Shaw
Email:
Duncan will hold on to this seat with ease. Windsor voters aren't about to split the vote with an NDer and let a Tory come up te middle. Duncan is safe.
09/11/02 ATGS
Email:
The NDP in Windsor seems to be getting its act back together -- see Joe Comartin in 2000 and Brian Masse in 2002. Yes they are federal seats, but the same riding people are involved provincially. Windsor New Dems know how to win again. In Windsor, the NDP guns will be out for this seat -- Duncan is vulnerable, and a strong NDP Candidate, combined with a strong central campaign, will take Windsor St. Clair.
06/07/02 Peter Kelly
Email: big-gunner@shaw.ca
This riding should swing to the NDP. Support for PC party will crumble in areas like this, thanks to the skyrocketing hydro rates, and it was the NDP who was sounding the warning bells from the beginning.
06/11/02 Nat
Email:
Dwight Duncan in 1995 defeated NDP incumbent Wayne Lessard. In 1999, Dwight Duncan deated Wayne Lessard once again but this time with a very large margin of victory. The NDP would have to find a superstar candidate to even have a chance. Over the past 8 years, Duncan has become a key part of Windsor's political landscape. Duncan is a fighter and a great representative for Windsor and he will win re-election.
06/11/02 JHorneck
Email:
I'd call this a Duncan victory in the making. Dwight has fought this battle a number of times and has been very successful. No one runs a stronger campaign then him and most local Liberals will tell you he is the one to learn from. Unless their is a high profile NDP candidate I don't think this will be very close. The NDP has played all of their aces.
04/11/02 Geneva
Email:
Dwight Duncan will hold this seat for the Liberals. Federally, Windsor will stay ND for a long time, but provincially I would be suprised if they could take this riding. Prediction-Duncan will win.
26/10/02 Craig
Email:
The NDP is getting its union ties back together, and the Windsor area is built around unions. The Liberals are not showing strength with unions, so I will predict the NDP to win this seat, as they create a new stronghold in the extreme southwest. The Tory vote will also only help the NDP.
26/10/02 jcw
Email: jc_wainwright@hotmail.com
I tend to believe that voters will vote stratigically in the riding. Though the ND's are strong in Windsor I don't think that the Provincial NDP will have what it takes to knock out this MPP. A strong ND Candidate would make this an interesting race though. But I think that Windsor-St.Clair will stay Liberal.
18/10/02 John Ashton
Email:
Duncan won descisively in 1999, but may not have an easy ride this time. It will largely depend on who runs for the New Democrats. They've proved that they're real contenders in federal Windsor poltics again with Comartin's 2000 win and Masse's win in 2002 (in Windsor West). Normally the NDP has an easier time winning provincially than federally in Windsor. They built on support with the Labour community and also have new support in Windsor's large immigrant communities. If they come up with a good candidate, this may be one of the few ridings the Liberals are vunerable in at the start of the election.


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