Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:28 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:55 PM 14/03/2004

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Rick Dalton
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
R. John Efford
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Don Ferguson
Michael Kehoe

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Bonavista-Trinity-Conception (57.6%)
Hon. R. John Efford
St. John's East (20.5%)
Norman Doyle
St. John's West (21.9%)
Loyola Hearn

2000 Result/Résultats:
17,614 45.93%
14,412 37.58%
5,454 14.22%
805 2.10%
66 0.17%

(140/290 polls, 36357/66679 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

St. John's East
(38/224 polls, 12964/76804 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

St. John's West
(59/226 polls, 13794/75008 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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Email: [hidden]
I think this one is a win for John Efford and the Liberals. However, it is not as "guaranteed" as most people think. Efford's performance during the campaign has not earned him any new votes. He made the statement that a federal election campaign is not the time to negotiate a deal for the province on offshore oil and gas revenues. Exactly when is the time? On what basis should he be elected? Mr. Efford has displayed arrogance in thinking he should be elected in good faith and then be allowed to address issues for his constituents.
Given a recent visit to the riding by Conservative leader Stephen Harper in the last week of the campaign, there might be a boost in Conservative support. Also, watch out for Conservative support from areas of this new riding that were once part of the Conservative strongholds of St.John's East and West.
12/06/04 E. MacKenzie
Email: emackenzie@austin.mec.edu
It would've been interesting had Crosbie run, but without his candidacy Efford is a shoo-in.
02/06/04 Voice of the Common Man
Email: [hidden]
Even as Crosbie was musing about running, a local poll put Efford well ahead:
Respondents were then asked for whom they would vote on election day.
25 per cent chose Crosbie.
34 per cent chose Efford.
4 per cent chose the as-yet-unnamed NDP candidate.
38 per cent were still undecided.
That works out to over 50 percent of decided voters. Now that Crosbie is out, it is Efford by a mile.
02/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Crosbie ain't running, we're switching this back to a solid win by Efford. Looks like the lack of a candidate for the tory's will ensure a solid liberal victory.
28/05/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queens.ca

Even if John Crosbie decides to run in this riding, I still can't see John Efford having *too* great a difficulty retaining. A Crosbie candidacy would serve to draw Liberal strength away from other ridings, and possibly allow for Hearn, Doyle and Barnes to be returned -- but Crosbie himself won't be elected. Like his mentor, Walter Carter, he seems destined to end hi
28/05/04 Voice of the Common Man
Email: [hidden]
Liam O'Brien, can you read the numbers to the left of your posting? 50:50? Huh?
This will be a close Efford win if Crosbie runs. Public response to Crosbie's musings hasn't been overwhelming in Newfoundland. If Crosbie doesn't run, Efford will win it in a walk.
28/05/04 pundit
Email: [hidden]
If Crosbie runs (which I suspect he will - he's just waiting to get Memorial convocation out of the way)...this will be THE race to watch. (forget Layton & Mills in TO). Even if he doesn't win here, his participation alone will take down a few Liberals elsewhere.
28/05/04 RWA
John Crosbie's comeback was unexpected, but should throw this riding into the too close to call column. He may be starting too late to win, but he will put up a strong fight and is a major endorsement for Harper in Atlantic Canada. This will be fun to observe.
28/05/04 IGB
Email: [hidden]
John Crosbie, the old icon of Newfoundland/Labrador politics, is considering throwing his hat into the ring here. It's hard to imagine an icon like Crosbie would go down to defeat, but if anybody could do it, it would be the equally colourful John Efford, who is not known for restraining his tongue either. The new riding of Avalon is an interesting mix of Bonavista-Trinity-Conception (fairly strong Liberal territory) and both the old St. John's ridings (Conservative territory). Crosbie would also give some much-needed credibility to the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada, where old PCers have not come around completely to the new Conservatives. If Crosbie enters, look for a really interesting fight between Efford and Crosbie; it could go either way.
28/05/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Uh-Oh! It looks like John Crosbie may be running for the Conservatives here. This could spell trouble for Efford. Conservative leaning areas of other ridings were added on after redistribution. We did not think that would make much of a difference, but Crosbie's something of a legend. This could get messy! Wait and see what happens.
28/05/04 B. Stewart
Email: [hidden]
A few words for Liberal predictors here: "Pass the tequila, Sheila!" Former Mulroney Cabinet Minister and PC Party Leadership contender, John Crosbie is planning to run in this riding!
28/05/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
An interesting rumour is that John Crosbie is thinking of coming out of retirement to context the riding. If so, he would provide Efford a formidable foe, high profile and popularity. It would be a tough battle...Crosbie owned the federal riding of St. John's West, a decent chunk of which has gone into Avalon.
28/05/04 MF
Email: [hidden]
It looks like Former Federal Minister of Finance John Crosbie will be running here for the Conservatives. Things are getting interesting in Newfoundland...
28/05/04 Brad
Email: [hidden]
I just got word that John Crosbie is taking another shot at federal politics, and will be running against Efford in Avalon. Crosbie's a
28/05/04 MM
Email: [hidden]
CTV and the Toronto Star announced former Progressive Conservative MP and Minister, John Crosbie, would be the Conservative candidate in Avalon. Presently I don't know how that's going to play, but it could make this riding a race to watch.
28/05/04 Masterful at Memorial
CTV News is reporting that former Mulroney cabinet minister and Tory leadership candidate John Crosbie will be running in Avalon.
Efford is a dead minister walking, methinks.
28/05/04 MC
Email: [hidden]
I don't understand the comparisons to Provincial Elections, especially when its a first time election of one of our many 'saviours' (rolls eyes...). Efford should have had it, but has become too sure of himself lately with his "I don't need your votes" attitude. Combine that with John Crosbie stepping back in (or so it would appear) and voila, Tory (if they still call themselves that) victory.
28/05/04 Mike
Email: ladiada@hotmail.com
If Crosbie does indeed run- then this is for sure a riding the Conservatives will target, and quite possibly win. No need to go into Crosbie's appeal: it's known he's progressive guy with tons of reconginition and experience. Plus the Liberal won in a by-election without a star candidate so we'll see how Efford will do under new circumstances. I predict a close Conservative win, providing that the Cons's do reasonably well in Atlantic Canada (over 25%)
28/05/04 PFR
John Crosby is thinking of running in this riding. If that is the case then this should be a pickup for the Conservatives. Crosby will be to Avalon what Ed Broadbent is to Ottawa Centre.
28/05/04 S. Moore
Email: [hidden]
Wow! John Crosbie is set to run as the Tory in this riding. That should move this out of the Liberal-lock column.
28/05/04 Full Name
Email: [hidden]
Looks like John Crosbie is going to be running in this riding now. I would definitely put this in the "Too Close to Call" column... Good Luck on predicting this riding...
28/05/04 MOB
Email: [hidden]
Wait a second here - John Crosbie is rumored to be running in this seat for the Conservatives. If that is the case, this riding should at the very least be placed in the too close to call column.
28/05/04 SB
Add this one to the Tory column. Former Cabinet Minister John Crosbie is rumoured to be running here again. Crosbie is enormously popular on the island and surely would capture this one for the Tories. Bye bye, Efford.
28/05/04 D.F.
Email: [hidden]
The evening news says John Crosbie may run against Efford. If so, take this one firmly out of the Liberal camp and put it down as to close to call.
Simply put, we have two of the greatest and most infamous Newfoundland politicians ever duking it out.
19/05/04 Liam O'Brien
Email: lpmobrie@dal.ca
Another close district. The transposition of votes shows it to work out almost 50 50. On any other election, even a 50-50 split going in would make John Efford a guanteed win. He's more popular than other Liberals because as a provincial politician he sounded more like the pro-decentralization Peckfords and Rideouts than he did like the pro-Ottawa Tobins... people liked that. it earned him respect in all corners. He was also the maverick - the rebel.. and few knew the fishery like John Efford. But some time in cabinet has nutoured him. Martin has embarassed him by making zero movement on ending a discriminatory (against non-renewable resource rich provinces) equalization clawback, and only token symbolic action on the fishery (see Gus Etchegary on what he sees as some political stunts). If Efford gets a strong Conservative name against him in this riding, he'll be in for a fight... especially since his new riding has the more Liberal (federally) side of Trinity bay chopped off and put with the south coast and REPLACED with one of the most conservative (small and capital c) parts of the province -- the cape shore! These folks have been voting for conservatives since the days of Peter Cashin. The tricks used in the Bonavista-Trinity-Conceptio by-elections concerning who gets a govt warf etc... are FAR less effective here... many people still remember Smallwood speeches where threats were uttered against those who didn't wnat to vote Liberal. They voted conservative anyway! And I think the people who now loose Loyola Hearn as an MP as a result of redistribution won't be too keen to let Efford stay in there... Provincial 2003 vote breakdown for this region is roughly 62% Conservative, 34% Liberal, and 4% NDP. I'd put this one down for TOO CLOSE! - another multi-coloured lightening bolt!
10/05/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Most of the anger against the Liberals has been forgotten. Not about the scandal, but the closing of the fisheries. Many were predicting a PC sweep of Newfoundland at the time, 7 of 7 seats. Now with the new CPC, however, the party has lost its traditional feel, it's also lost its eastern leader.
While this one will be close, I think Efford and the Liberals have what's needed to win here.
06/05/04 Voice of the Common Man
Email: [hidden]
"Efford's margin was actually less under the redistributed results than those of the other Liberal MPs in the province."
Efford didn't run in 2000, he was still in provincial politics running to lose to Grimes by 8 votes in the leadership. He won the seat in the by-election after Tobin re-re-re-resigned. His margin in the by-election was 20 points higher than what Tobin got two less than two years before... even as a massive anti-Tobin backlash cost the Liberals GGF next door, and five of six post-Tobin provincial by-elections, even in Liberal provincial "gimme" seats.
Efford's old chateau-fort in the Port-de-Grave area is in the heart of this new Avalon seat. Even with the addition of traditionally Tory-ish areas of the southern and SW avalon (many of which in the Argentia area voted Liberal in 2000), Efford will win this seat again.
01/05/04 Random Psephologist
Email: sabatine@hotmail.com
Efford's margin was actually less under the redistributed results than those of the other Liberal MPs in the province. Still, I agree that the promotion will help, along with the fact that the small CA vote means that right will get no benefit from the merger in this riding.
16/04/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
The anti-seal hunting campaigners (and the seals for that matter) might hate Efford with a vengence... but the people that can actually vote in Avalon will almost certainly send him back to Ottawa with another huge mandate...
21/03/04 JR
Email: [hidden]
This is a no-brainer. John Efford is the most or second-most popular politician in Newfoundland, and a formidable campaigner, especially in rural parts of the province. He has fared well as a federal minister in his short time in the position, and will have no trouble whatever in convincing people to return him to office in this riding, which includes his power base in Conception Bay North. The Tories would have to put up an extremely strong candidate to displace him, but I cannot think of one brave enough to take him on. This is Efford country.
18/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
The Avalon Pen. has a history of voting Conservative. Weather they do this time or not will depend on the candidate. As of now, I'd say the Liberals have the edge, but that can change, so I am saying this one is unpredictable.
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We earlier stated that Labrador was the safest Liberal seat in the province. We were in error, because this riding probably is. Mr. Efford is well liked and he's most likely going to keep it. The Conservatives are going to put up a good fight, remembering the '97 loss of the PCs by something like 220 votes. That won't be repeated this time.
15/03/04 Sean Meades
Email: [hidden]
That Liberal cabinet minister was elected in a district with completely different boundaries. The new riding looks a lot more like the old St. John's West, and the coupling of the sponsorship scandal with the new provincial Conservative government does not help Efford. His personal name recognition won't get him out of this one.
12/03/04 full
Liberal cabinet minister, was elected with 75% of the vote in 2000, should go Liberal.

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