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Labrador
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale
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Update/Mise à jour: 11:55 AM 6/18/2004 
Prediction Changed La prévision a changé 1:03 AM 17/03/2004 |
Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription
Candidates/candidats:
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| Independent: Ern Condon | |||||||
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N.D.P./N.P.D.: Shawn Crann | ||||||
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Green Party/Parti Vert: Lori-Ann Martino | ||||||
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Liberal Party/Parti libéral: Lawrence O'Brien | ||||||
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Conservatives/Conservateurs: Merrill Strachan | ||||||
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Incumbents/Les députés: | |||||||
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Labrador (100.0%) Lawrence O'Brien | ||||||
2000 Result/Résultats:
| Redistributed | ||
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7,046 | 68.99% |
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1,267 | 12.41% |
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1,240 | 12.14% |
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660 | 6.46% |
| 0 | 0.00% | |
Labrador (76/76 polls, 19431/19431 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 7046 | |
| 660 | |
| 1267 | |
| 1240 | |
| 0 | ||
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12/06/04 | E. MacKenzie Email: [hidden] | |
| I agree that Labrador is more of an Arctic riding than it is a Maritimes one, and personal following is crucial. Because of that, not even the biggest swing away from the Liberals will hurt O'Brien's chances; he'll win this riding for as long as he cares to run. | |||
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10/06/04 | TAN Email: [hidden] | |
| With less than twelve hours to go until the nomination deadline, no sign of either a Conservative or NDP candidate in Canada's second-smallest riding. Regardless of whether papers get filed tomorrow or not, this can only bode well for O'Brien. | |||
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10/06/04 | C. Hubley Email: [hidden] | |
| Native-son incumbent Liberal will take it. A lot of remote frontier-like ridings run more or less entirely on favours from powerful people, so, if you have a link into the governing caucus, you don't typically give it up just because you're angry. And, the NDP has apparently no one in this riding, so there is only the Green to draw off any anti-establishment vote. | |||
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19/05/04 | Email: [hidden] | |
| Labrador will probably go Liberal again. MP O'Brien is pretty popular in the riding. The North and Soth coasts are strongly Liberal, and there are enough Liberals votes elsewhere to make this an easier Liberal win. I would say, however, that this new riding of Labrador has not been seriously contested since 1996. If the Conservatives were able to find a strong and well-known candidate, this riding could become one to watch. Such a strong candidate with strong united organization hasn't come forward in a long time. Perhaps that is a statement about Mr. O'Brien's popularity in and of itself. I also hear he has some very smart and capable staff members helping him... | |||
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01/05/04 | psephologist Email: [hidden] | |
| This riding isn't as safe as the percentages indicate. There were only ten thousand votes cast here at the last election. That means a shift with a relatively small number of voters can have a big impact. Put another way, O'Brien's majority is about 6,000. This would be about a 12% margin in another riding but translates into a margin of over 50% here. This is essentially an Artic riding, and like the other such ridings, a popular incumbent can build up a large majority, in percentage turns. This riding will vote Liberal until its incumbent retires, after that it will be up for grabs. | |||
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29/04/04 | Voice of the Common Man Email: [hidden] | |
| In the 1996 byelection, most pundits (the incumbent MP included) agreed that if it had been held a week earlier, Reform would have taken Labrador. As it was, the margin was 40-30. In 1997, the Grit vote squeaked back into absolute majority, but barely, just over 50 percent. This was the "surprise! Liberals bomb in Atlantic Canada" election, remember, where even rotten boroughs like Burin, Cape Breton, and the Acadian regions turfed Liberal MPs, and where other Liberal seats in Newfoundland were threatened with extinction after sweeping all seven in 1993. In 2000, it pushed 70%. I think this may be the only seat in Atlantic Canada where the Liberal vote went up in both of the 1997 and 2000 general elections. "underservedly"? It would seem that someone has been doing something right. Liberal hold. | |||
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17/03/04 | Bear and Ape Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com | |
| This is the safest Liberal seat in Newfoundland and Labrador. For the time being, it's the only one that we are going to call for the Liberals in this provence. No big upsets here. | |||
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15/03/04 | Nick Boragina Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com | |
| Mr.O'Brien is the first MP born in Labrador to be elected from Labrador. Mr.O'Brien won the last election by a margin of over 50% Labrador is in eastern Canada, and nethier the Conservatives or NDP is doing well in polls here, nor are they expected to do well. | |||
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15/03/04 | S Meades Email: [hidden] | |
| Lawrence O'Brien seems to have the riding locked up (something like 70+ per cent in 2000?), however underservedly. | |||
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