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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:27 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
8:49 PM 6/26/2004

Constituency Profile
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David Raymond Amos
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Karin Bach
Pat Hanratty
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
John Herron
Rob Moore

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Beauséjour-Petitcodiac (24.5%)
Dominic LeBlanc
Fundy-Royal (63.9%)
John Herron
Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe (11.5%)
Hon. Claudette Bradshaw
Saint John (0.2%)
Elsie Wayne

2000 Result/Résultats:
12,380 37.62%
9,698 29.47%
8,444 25.66%
2,370 7.20%
19 0.06%

(41/187 polls, 12121/64211 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(108/195 polls, 31669/55106 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(19/210 polls, 5686/72199 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Saint John
(3/167 polls, 90/54467 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 A Tory
Email: [hidden]
Based on Candidate Receptions at 2 local debates, I'd say John(the red tory)Herron has about as much a chance of getting elected on the Liberal Ticket as Jack Layton has of becomming Prime Minister
13/06/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
I'll pick John Herron to win by a hair. Mostly, because Rob Moore presents the old Alliance wing of CPC that Maritimers haven't quite warmed up to yet. Also, it appears the sitting MP is more popular than the party he represents.
10/06/04 C. Hubley
Email: [hidden]
John Herron, based on Paul Martin and Joe Clark support. Compared to that, Peter MacKay and Stephen Harper support doesn't count for much in New Brunswick. Bernard Lord has been lukewarm in endorsing federally and only says he will be voting Conservative himself. That's not really an endorsement.
New Brunswick will be an important battleground in this election - maybe THE most important indicator of what will happen in Ontario. If NB goes strongly Conservative, i.e. I'm wrong here, then there may be a Conservative majority government. If not, not.
10/06/04 PW
Email: [hidden]
I was in the Kingston Peninsula and St. Martin's part of this riding last weekend. Herron and Moore appear tied in signs on the peninsula while Moore has the advantage in St. Martin's. Pat Hanratty, the NDP candidate, is a formidable foe, and secured 17.6% of the vote in Hampton in the 2003 NB election. With the Liberals sinking in the polls, my original prediction of a Herron victory is being scrapped in favour of too close to call.
10/06/04 the analyst
Email: [hidden]
Rob Moore has been excellent at the door and has done an excellent job villanizing John Herron. This was a very conservative seat and became more so with the Albert county polls it picked up from Beausejour-Petitcodiac. Herron was popular but his turn-coat label has stolen some of that from him and either way I don't think that he can overcome the blue voting tendencies of the riding.
Mr. Moore goes to Ottawa.
10/06/04 Mr. Mischief
Email: [hidden]
Now, let's see... "not sure"? The combined Alliance/P.C. vote in 2000 was more than double that of the Liberal candidate...and that was in a GOOD year for the Liberals. I can't remember when the tories last lost this seat, other than 1993. I think it's pretty obvious where this riding is headed.
01/06/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
What are the chances of Fundy going Liberal if the country moves to elect a minority Conservative government. The main thrust of the Liberal campaign here, vote for us because we have access to government and its purse strings, evaporates if it looks like the Liberals elsewhere are being toppled...
Email: [hidden]
The important point here is that the Liberal candidate is the former Progressive Conservative candidate, and the Conservative candidate is the former Canadian Alliance candidate. Essentially the 2000 election is being run without the Liberals. If you look at it that way, you can only conclude that John Herron will win easily.
28/05/04 Rigs
Email: [hidden]
When the PC Association in his riding went to vote for merger, Herron's position against it didn't sway 1 delegate in 10. At his nomination convention, he said he saw a "handfull" of former Tories. That's what he'll draw - a handfull. This riding is blue to the core, and only elected a Liberal once since WWI - in 93 with a Liberal landslide and a split right.
The Conservative candidate isn't great - he doesn't need to be.
For Herron to have even a hope of bucking the tide he'd need to be a great candidate - not even close.
12/05/04 Voice of the Common Man
Email: [hidden]
"I checked out the Bristol Group poll which suggests that the Liberals are dropping in support"
Relative to the *previous Bristol poll*... which was pre-Adscam explosion.
Relative to the *2000 election results*, the Bristol/Omni poll shows the Liberals UP in every province, and the CPC DOWN relative to the PC/CA poll everywhere except PEI. Adscam notwithstanding.
The Liberal result was most markedly higher than the 2000 poll in NB. The CPC was most markedly lower in NB and NS.
11/05/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
I checked out the Bristol Group poll which suggests that the Liberals are dropping in support, though still substantially ahead...in addition, it shows a huge undecided margin that makes me uneasy. My take on Atlantic votings patterns is that they are relatively stable with few undecided voters.
10/05/04 Voice of the Common Man
Email: [hidden]
1) The site editors seem to strip the links, but I thought i included it as authority in my original posting. The figure I cite is the NB-specific sample from a poll done by Omnifacts (check the Bristol Group website). The global sample among the four provinces was n=1808, which would be a massive sample for a national poll, let alone in the four smallest provinces.
2) Yes, sample sizes tend to be small in the sub-national samples of national polls. That's why trends, not snapshots, are what counts.
3) Clear trend: since the so-called "merger" between the CA and PCs, the "united" "right-wing" party has polled an average of 11 points BEHIND the COMBINED totals that both parties got in 2000 in the Atlantic provinces, the region where the former Tories got most of their seats. Even after the ad scandal blew open. And since the beginning of March, that gap has been widening again.
08/05/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Voice of the Common Man would be even happier with yesterday's Ipsos Reid poll, suggesting the Atlantic is now 54% Liberal and 19% Conservative...However, and I speak from having been badly burned from experience, Atlantic subsamples are tiny and any sub-sample result that has a margin of 20% 19 times out of 20 must be looked at with great care (nay suspicion). Ordinarily, the Atlantic provinces have a stability in voting that results in less shifts than in other parts of Canada. I really don't believe for a moment that the Conservatives will get 19% or anything near it. But I will be very interested in hearing "on the ground" reports from analysts once the campaign (mercifully) begins soon!...unless, voice of the common man, there is a NB-wide poll that you are citing.
06/05/04 Voice of the Common Man
Email: [hidden]
The Liberals are outpolling the CPC by almost 2:1 among decided NB voters according to a poll released yesterday. Even if not one former PC/Herron voter followed him across the floor, this riding would go Liberal with that kind of a trend.
05/05/04 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Hi Corey...You must take into consideration that in national polls, the Maritimes sub-sample is really small...in the last Ipsos poll, only 65 in the entire region indicated their intentions...that provides for a really large margin of error...
What are my thoughts on the region and on Fundy? In 2000, the Liberals made significant gains from 1997...I expect them to hold all or most of them, but not expand beyond that. For Fundy, that means the Conservatives would ordinarily hold the seat, but for the Herron defection. Herron running as an independent would get, say 2,500 votes...those might be reasonably added to the ordinary Liberal vote...but given the PC margin of 4,000 votes and a further 7,000 votes taken by the Alliance, I think this riding is still one favoured to be taken by the united Conservatives.
04/05/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
I knew when I had that nagging feeling that I should have paid attention. Herron is nowhere to be seen, in fact, he seems to have dissapeared into thin air. About the only time I see him is in the backround whenever Joe Clark stands up in the house. He has not take up a public stand, nor has he been seen enough to make an impact. This riding has a history of voting right-wing, parts of this riding elected CoR candidates in 1991. Scott Brison may be able to win this riding for the Liberals, not John Herron can not. CPC win.
01/05/04 Corey O.
Email: olomon@hotmail.com
With all polls showing the Liberals way up in Atlantic Canada (gaining between 7-9 points in the last two weeks or so alone) and combined with Herron's personal vote, he should take this seat for the Liberals.
26/04/04 RP.
Email: [hidden]
John Herron will win. It is interesting that Joe Clark, after recently declaring neutrality and encouraging voters to go with the best candidate in their riding, is endorsing and campaigning with Herron (as well as giving a nod to Ed Broadbent in Ottawa).
16/04/04 Clinton P. Desveaux
Email: vf750f@hotmail.com
Hands down slam dunk for Conservatives, look at the results from 1993, 1997, and 2000 and add to the fact that the grits have a turn coat running and Liberal support is sliding. Oh need I mention that the vote split is gone now as well, chalk it up for the Conservatives.
01/04/04 RWA
Stephen Harper received 56% of the leadership vote in this riding. Either this means he has the support of local Tories or that many of them have bailed with Herron to the Liberals. I'll leave it to those who know the riding better to decide which it is.
31/03/04 Vince
The fact the 2000 alliance candidate, Rob Moore, was nominated may be a bad thing for the tories (trying not to look like an alliance take-over etc). If he's a really good candidate it doesn't matter, if not though, it will be used by Herron and the Liberals against the new conservative party.
26/03/04 Cod Father
Email: [hidden]
You guys are all forgetting one thing...This is CoR Country! Rural, Agrarian, Bible Belt. The remenants of the former Confederation of Regions Party will solidly back the Conservatives here this time. People are really pissed at Herron for jumping ship.
26/03/04 J.P. Kirby
Email: v5mx2@unb.ca
The riding of Fundy-Royal was created in 1917. The only time they didn't elect a Tory in that time was in the 1993 Liberal sweep, and even then the right-wing vote was split between the PCs, Reform and a well-known COR candidate. Combine that with Herron switching to the Liberals at *precisely* the wrong time (weeks before the sponsorship scandal), and I think it's pretty safe to say this one's going blue again.
24/03/04 Jer
Email: jer@jerscape.ca
My Friend from Rothesay assures me that John Herron retains much personal popularity in the riding. Additionally,redistribution has added alot of Liberal territory to the riding. If John can pull enough Red-Tories with him he might win. If the Conservatives find a well know local Candidate however, John will be in trouble. Too close to say for now.
19/03/04 The Hack
Email: threeoheightseats@hotmail.com
Look at the CA vote in 2000. I always used this riding as the perfect example of Atlantic Canadians warming to the "evil" CA. That's the ace in the hole for the CPC here. They already had a decent core vote. A good CPC candidate wins this riding.
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
This is a tricky one. Mr. Herron is the incumbant and he will keep some votes even though he's switched to the Liberals. However, this is a riding with right-wing sentiments and that bodes well for the Conservatives. With all the scandals and infighting with the Liberals, we're giving the Conservatives the nod on this one for now.
17/03/04 RWA
Email: radams2@uwo.ca
This is a tough call. It depends on how much of the 2000 Tory vote was for John Herron instead of his party. The combined conservative vote doubled the Liberals, so a lot of Herron's support will have to switch to win this seat.
17/03/04 Neal
Email: nealford@sympatico.ca
John Herron blew it by not going along with the merger. His riding association approved it, but like joe Clark he could not follow through.
If the Conservatives can pick a strong candidate, stick a fork in Mr. Herron, who through away a promising career. Unlike Joe Clark who is a fossil who had nothing to lose.
17/03/04 Patrick Webber
Email: [hidden]
I now think the Liberals will win this seat, whether John Herron or Frank McKenna is the candidate. The PC votes for Herron in 2000 were likely Red Tory votes (Herron being perhaps the most left-wing PC MP) and they will go Liberal long before they go to the new Conservative Party. I believe the Conservatives are running Rob Moore, the Alliance candidate in 2000. He'll post a good showing but fail to win.
16/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
I get a nagging feeling I may be wrong, but the feeling that I'm right is strong enough to make me chose the Liberals for this riding. Herron will bring over all the red tories, where as most of them would have probably stayed home. The alliance needed 5 more points to beat the Liberals, and even assuming some Liberal support bleeds off to the tories, Herron only needs to bring half his votes with him. Unless Belinda Stronach wins the Conservative Leadership, I think Herron will retain his seat.
27/02/04 Patrick Webber
Can John Herron retain his seat as a Liberal? Before the sponsorship scandal, I would have said definitely. After, who knows? The question is where those Red Tory votes will go, and whether the riding voted in 2000 for Herron or for the PCs. If I had to, I would place my bets on Herron winning this seat, yet I'm not certain as of now.

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