Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision

www.electionprediction.com

Ahuntsic
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:42 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
8:53 PM 23/03/2004



Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

Candidates/candidats:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Eleni Bakopanos
N.D.P./N.P.D.:
Annick Bergeron
Parti Marijuana Party:
F.X. De Longchamp
Marxist-Leninist:
Marsha Fine
Conservatives/Conservateurs:
Jean Fortier
Bloc Québécois:
Maria Mourani
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Lynette Tremblay

Population 2001
populations
99,848
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs
76508

Incumbents/Les députés:
Ahuntsic (100.0%)
Hon. Eleni Bakopanos

2000 Result/Résultats:
Redistributed
26,556 53.72%
15,936 32.24%
2,861 5.79%
1,699 3.44%
OTHERS
2,378 4.81%

Ahuntsic
(210/226 polls, 76508/81114 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results
26556
15936
1699
939
2861
OTHER
1439



Sponsoring this space? See sponsorship details
24/06/04 Stéphane Gaudet
Email: [hidden]
Je sais qu'on parle maintenant de possibles victoires bloquistes dans des comtés libéraux qui étaient vus comme imprenables il y a peu de temps (Vaudreuil, Brome-Missisquoi, Outremont...). Mais il ne faudrait quand même pas exagérer ! Regardez la carte de la circonscription Ahuntsic: elle couvre non seulement le quartier d'Ahuntsic proprement dit (à majorité francophone, avec beaucoup d'italophones), mais aussi le quartier de Bordeaux, très peu francophone. Les non-francophones seront peut-être moins fidèles que d'habitude aux libéraux cette année, cependant, il ne faut pas croire les sondages qui accordent des appuis de l'ordre de 15-20% au Bloc chez les non-francophones. Ce ne sontlà que des INTENTIONS de vote, qui ne se matérialisent jamais en votes dans l'urne le jour du scrutin. De plus, pour arracher le comté, le Bloc aurait besoin de transferts de voix de l'ordre de 10%-11%, ce que je ne prévois pas dans cette circonscription. Si le Bloc gagnait ici, il finirait avec près de 60 sièges. Quelqu'un y croit ??? Non, victoire pour Eleni Bakopanos, pas facile, mais victoire tout de même.
24/06/04 Glen McPhail
Email: [hidden]
This riding is probably going Bloc. When the electoral districts were redrawn, about 1000 Italian (read "Liberal") voters were carved out of Ahuntsic. Aside from that, many voters from Eleni's strongest power base are away on holidays. Not to mention the wave of support for the bloc as a result of the municipal demergers and the St-Jean Baptiste. Too bad Eleni.
20/06/04 Philippe
Email: pcdubeau@sympatico.ca
Je crois bien que, si Jean Fortier fait un bon score, le Bloc a des chances de passer entre les conservateurs et les libéraux... par moins de 500 voix!
15/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
Martin sauvera seulement l'extrème west Island de Montréal, le reste sera au camp du Bloc.
13/05/04 Stéphane Gaudet
Email: [hidden]
Victoire facile d'Eleni Bakopanos dans cette circonscription vu sa composition ethnolinguistique.
12/05/04 Glen McPhail
Email: GlenMcP@yahoo.ca
This race will probably go Liberal but should be listed as too close to call. Both the Bloc and the NDP are planning on running solid campaigns in this riding, and the Conservatives announced their candidate today, Jean Fortier - former head of the Montreal Executive committee.
With the Libs shedding votes to those three parties, (and the Greens even?), the spread between the Libs and the Bloc (26,000 vs 16,000) in the last election is sure to narrow dramatically.
Enough for Eleni to lose her seat? Maybe not. Enough for her to lose some sleep? You can bet on it.
26/04/04 sam
Email: samuel_541@hotmail.com
Un compté pour le PLC. Pauvre maria candidate PQ defait
et la elle vas l'être encore. Pourtant elle ferait une
popir députée! Mais bon Eleni est trop forte et as de
excellente chance de remporter
19/04/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Some good points by the previous poster, but we're certain that Ahuntsic is not going to be exciting at all. Just to squabble over some of his points:
-Ahuntsic did not exist prior to 97 (it was a new riding created from parts of neighbouring ridings)
-The Bloc won in PART of this riding in 93 (recall it did not exist in 93)
-Conservatives look too much like the Canadian Alliance to have much of an effect in Quebec this election
Certain Liberal keep.
11/04/04 Jonathan C.
Email: [hidden]
Indeed, the sitting MP has little chance to lose her seat; just a couple of things to take into account which could make the race slightly more interesting than it has been in a loooong while. First, a bit of history.
- The riding has been Bakopanos' since 1997. Between 1993-97, it was held by Michel Daviault (BQ), who did not run in 97, instead he chaired the BQ campaign and did stategy work for them.
- from 1988-93, it was held by Nicole Roy-Arcelin (PC), who defeated former cabinet minister Raymond Garneau (Lib.) who had held it from 1980-84.
- before 1980, it was held by Jeanne Sauve (Lib.), governor-general from 1984-1990.
I've lived in Ahuntsic all my life, only moving to Toronto in 2001.
Now, what could make this election interesting is the following:
- Bakopanos was named in the HRDC scandal as funding programs which didn't create the promised jobs in the riding.
- Roy-Arcelin has returned to be the riding president of the Conservative Party. No candidate has been nominated so far.
- Provincially, BQ support is higher than ever.
Still, the Liberals could win unless there's a meltdown/tide towards another party. BQ is perhaps most likely to benefit.
27/03/04 Victor Ad
Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
Je pense qu'Ahuntsic va rester libéral sans problème. Cette circonscription a beaucoup de gens d'origine italienne, sud-européene et arabe et beacup de francophones de souche sont aussi des libéraux. Quel que soit le candidat du bloc ça va être très difficile d'aller au-dessus de 35 % dans la circonscrition.
20/03/04 syllap
Email: sylapointe@hotmail.com
Eleni Bakopanos country, easy return for her to Ottawa....
20/03/04 Jerry
Email: jayraybo@hotmail.com
Ahuntsic est et demeurera libéral ! A moins d'un énorme trmblement de terre...mais là...


Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici
Return to/retournez à - Provincial Index/Actualité provinciale
Return to/retournez à - 2004 Federal Election Prediction/Prévision de élection générale 2004

© 1999-2004 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com - Email Webmaster