Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:51 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
6:45 PM 14/03/2004

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Jean-Paul Bédard
Rebecca Blaikie
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Douglas Jack
Bloc Québécois:
Thierry Larrivée
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Paul Martin
Nicole Roy-Arcelin
Parti Marijuana Party:
Marc-Boris St-Maurice

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
LaSalle-Émard (100.0%)
Rt. Hon Paul Martin

2000 Result/Résultats:
31,692 65.68%
11,708 24.26%
1,784 3.70%
1,103 2.29%
1,966 4.07%

(196/196 polls, 75788/75788 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Andre Jones
In fact, the previous posting is wrong - the Bloc is strong in many places in the East End of Montreal - Duceppe in Laurier, e.g. This, however, is obviously not one of those places.
24/06/04 Stéphane Gaudet
Email: [hidden]
Malgré le ressac anti-libéraux au Québec, il est impossible que Paul Martin ne soit pas réélu ici. On ne vote pas contre un Premier ministre potentiel.
19/05/04 Stevo
Montrealers always vote Liberal. Exclusively, consistently, always. No other party can ever hope to make inroads in this city. Whereas the Conservatives and NDP have a shot at quite a few GTA ridings, all of Montreal clearly likes Red, regardless of what the party's policies are or who is leading it. Perhaps a side contest on election day will be who wins his riding by a greater share of the vote - Stephen Harper in Calgary-Southwest, or Paul Martin here in LaSalle-Emard.
15/05/04 JT
Email: jaytenca@yahoo.ca
The only thing interesting here is that Bill Blaike's daughter is running against the Prime Minister.
03/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
This riding would go Liberal even if it was an unpopular bank-bencher who was running. This riding is in the west-end of Montreal, so that means it will go Liberal definately. Add the fact that it is the Prime Minister who is running, makes this a definate Liberal win.
14/04/04 Alex
Email: [hidden]
Need it be said? PM's do not lose their seats. Campbell may well be the only one in history to have that happen to her, and that required a full-fledged smashing of the party into little pieces to pull that off. Martin has this locked up.
17/03/04 NDP Newbie
Email: [hidden]
Martin could be as unpopular as Kim Campbell was nationally and still easily take this riding.
17/03/04 Neal
Email: nealford@sympatico.ca
LaSalle Emard is a riding that will go Liberal because of Martin, however, during the Mulroney years it was Tory.
The Bloc hasn't got a prayer there, but will probably finish second because the Tories and Dips will allocate their resources in areas where there is a chance, however remote.
16/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Mr.Martin will win his seat, but it will be closer then everyone else thinks. The Conservatives and NDP will purposfully run weak candidates, each will probably run a "token" minority candidate. The Bloc, however, will put a strong candidate against martin to suck up all anti-martin votes. I would not be surprised to see Martin finish only 10 or 15 points ahead of the Bloc candidate, but would be surprised if the Bloc were to pull off an upset.
16/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Even if it wasn't Paul Martin's riding this is one of many Montreal ridings that would give the Liberals a large win (sponsership scandal or not).
27/02/04 Patrick Webber
Paul Martin's seat. End of story.

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