Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
3:55 PM 6/3/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
1:49 AM 17/03/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

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Bloc Québécois:
Jean-Philippe Chartré
Maria Pia Chávez
Parti Marijuana Party:
Jay Dell
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Jessica Gal
Rachel Hoffman
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Marlene Jennings
William McCullock
Earl Wertheimer

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Lac-Saint-Louis (18.9%)
Clifford Lincoln
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Lachine (81.1%)
Marlene Jennings

2000 Result/Résultats:
29,846 63.83%
7,884 16.86%
3,109 6.65%
2,288 4.89%
3,633 7.77%

(40/204 polls, 14171/82252 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(169/221 polls, 60878/75421 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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02/06/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@hotmail.com
Apologies to Bear if I made NDG seem like an anglo shanty-town... it isn't and I certainly didn't intend to make it seem that way ("large" is all relative. Considering how well off most of Anglo Montreal is, even a small-ish working class population counts as "large")
But like I said, NDG-Lachine is so (electorally) dull... that even a *small* chance of the Dippers clawing above 15% is "interesting" (hey, this *is* Quebec after all...)
27/05/04 Neal
Email: nealford@sympatico.ca
Liberal stronghold. I can only think of one way to defeat the Liberals here, and that would be for Warren Allmand, the longtime ultra-left Liberal maverick who quit back in 1995 after the Liberal Budget that failed to eliminate the GST among other things, to throw his hat in the ring for the NDP, where he would have been more at home anyway.
BArring a miracle of that order, Ms. Jennings is headed back to Ottawa...the only question is, will she be a government or opposition backbencher?
25/05/04 Bear Without Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Victor and Al, although I do not disagree with your ultimate Liberal victory win, your other assessments are...well...lacking. First let me make this clear, NDG is my home. I lived there for 28 years of my life and most of my family still lives there. Both of you seem to make NDG sound like some anglo shanty-town that, if were not conditioned to vote Liberal because thats what anglo Quebecers do, they'd jump at voting NDP. Here's the reality, much of NDG, especially above the commuter rail tracks (oh yeah Victor...no public transportation links between NDG and Lachine? What do you call the commuter train, not to mention several bus lines?) is middle class professionals and families. People who feel they pay too much in taxes and where big NDP spending would mean less disposable income for them. Not something that would bode well. As for Victor's comments on Concordia's Loyola campus being int he riding, most of the properties around there are NOT student housing! but the aforementioned reasonably well to do families. Most students choose to live downtown and take the free Concordia shuttle bus to Loyola (if they have classes there). Not to mention that NDG was one of the most trendiest neighbourhoods to live in Montreal (up untill last year) and rents have sky rocketed and vacancy rates were almost nill. The working class area is the area below the commuter rail tracks, which is small by comparison to the people above the tracks. There's a reason why the NDP were FOURTH in the old NDG-Lachine riding and with redistribution it's even less NDP friendly. In the end, the Libs will win (a no-brainer) the BQ will come second (they came second last time in an unfriendly riding when it was not a good time to be a BQ member) and Conservatives will be third. NDP last, this is not East Vancouver!
24/05/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@hotmail.com
A long time Liberal stronghold in Montreal (it's voted Liberal since 1962, including the Mulroney sweeps in the '80's) the only interesting thing about this riding is how well the Dippers do... NDG has a large working class Anglo population (Lachine, of course, doesn't) and there's a chance that they might be able to claw back their deposit. Other than that, NDG-Lachine is dull, dull, dull...
16/05/04 Stéphane Gaudet
Email: [hidden]
Une circonscription plutôt anglophone, donc libérale sûre. Madame Jennings sera réélue avec une forte majorité.
02/05/04 Victor A.
Email: [hidden]
Notre-Dame de Grâce-Lachine riding is one that will certaily elect a Liberal to Ottawa. NDG is mostly anglophone and although parts of it are what can be called middle-class, some areas are really poor. This borough can and should be trageted by the NDP in the future simply because it's anglophone, it is the poorest of all *anglo* districts in Montreal, plus half of the Concordia University is located here, so the NDP can be quite credible here if they could come up with some organization. Lachine, is on the other hand a middle-class suburb, very different from NDG and sligtly more francophone than anglophone. Both neighborhoods are totally distict from one another, there is even no public transport link between them...I wonder what was Elections Canada thinking by creating such a riding... anyways Miss Jennings is going back to Ottawa.
16/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Bear's old stoming ground and one of those Montreal ridings that will elect a Liberal with a huge majority. English speaking so the Bloc doesn't have a prayer and doesn't buy much into either right or left wing politics (giving the Conservatives and the NDP not much hope either).

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