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Brant
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:01 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
1:30 PM 21/03/2004



Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

Candidates/candidats:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
N.D.P./N.P.D.:
Lynn Bowering
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Helen-Anne Embry
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Barra Gots
Conservatives/Conservateurs:
Greg Martin
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Lloyd St. Amand
Independent:
John Turmel

Population 2001
populations
118,580
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs
83508

Incumbents/Les députés:
Brant (91.1%)
Hon. Jane Stewart
Haldimand-Norfolk-Brant (8.9%)
Hon. Bob Speller

2000 Result/Résultats:
Redistributed
25,753 55.49%
12,259 26.41%
4,097 8.83%
3,343 7.20%
OTHERS
959 2.07%

Brant
(211/211 polls, 76057/76057 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results
23714
10755
3092
3535
OTHER
918

Haldimand-Norfolk-Brant
(29/214 polls, 7451/72165 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results
2039
1504
251
562
OTHER
41



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22/06/04 Deserve Better
Email: [hidden]
This riding will go Conservative. Paul Martin is owed no loyalty after letting Jane Stewart go from Cabinet and too many here voted for her and not the Party. Lynn Bowering is an excellent candidate but cannot overcome the Conservative momentum. Lloyd St. Amand's team has no momentum - his campaign office is always empty, or the staff is just rude, he has almost no volunteer phoners and has used a call service out of Toronto which has just annoyed voters (we're still pretty rural and people don't want to listen to someone who can hardly speak english). His campaign manager didn't have the where withall to pick a decent sign and go with maybe "team Paul" and then goes and tells everyone that its because he doesn't give the electorate the benefit of the doubt of knowing the difference between Martin the Conservative candidate and Martin the Liberal leader!! His alignment with Levac is not helping as even loyal Liberals see Levac's association with Paul Martin as a local betrayal. It isn't just Jane Stewart that is missing here!
22/06/04 Brant Liberal
Email: [hidden]
This is a Liberal hold. Ipsos says Liberals are 10 points up in the regional poll and so does internal Liberal poll tracking.
As of Tuesday morning no sign of Jack Layton in the riding - this means their national campaign has written this riding off and the left of centre stays with the Liberals.
Anecodately, 78 year old neighbour who swore she would not vote Liberal at the beginning of the campaign stopped me in WalMart on Sunday and advised she voted Liberal at the advance poll - wants to stop Harper.
Fianlly, smooth local campaign with no major stumbles.
Its gonna stay red guys!
21/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
This is still Nixon land. A close race with the NDP coming up, but do they have enough of that support from the 80s left? I see a Liberal NDP fight here, based on history and current polling. Liberal hold.
20/06/04 Arzie Chant
Email: achant@uwo.ca
For someone who grew up in Brantford, the previous poster doesn't know much. Once again, we have tories making the common error that rural=conservative. It does not, particularly here. As a proud resident of Brant County, I can say that both St. George and Paris support Liberal and NDP candidates. The newest addition, the old Burford Township (including the Town of Burford) is not Conservative. While there are some who vote tory, Burfordians remember well which party closed it's lone highschool and 3 elementary schools at the provincial level: Conservatives. With that in mind, we seek to continue to be represented by Liberals or perhaps swing to the NDP. This riding has been Red for the past many years and before Jane had it, it was NDP. Provincially, Sokoloski was destroyed twice by Levac. People in Brant simply do not care for Conservatives. To believe otherwise is to be willfully blind.
In addition, another Conservative poster claimed that Greg Martin was the only candidate with a public profile. Apparently he neglected to read anything written on this site, or anything in the local media. First of all, while Greg Martin has been a City councillor, he has never once served the County. Furthermore, in the city, he represented only one of five wards. This is hardly a substantial number of voters. In addition, Lloyd St.Amand and Lynn Bowering do in fact have public profiles.
Overall, this riding will remain on the left. While there is potential for it to go NDP, I think it is headed Liberal again after the years of service from the much beloved Jane Stewart. The only race the tories have a chance of winning is the race for second place.
16/06/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
As one who spent his youth living in Brantford, I retain a lot of interest in the election race here. I note that post-debate, Martin, with only 10 or so campaign days left, is hitting Brantford and Kitchener...I think the final days of the campaign shows where the Party leaders think they can gain (Layton/Harper) or are trying to hold (Martin). In the case of Brantford, federally it has been either NDP or Liberal, but with a consistent and stubborn Conservative vote that has prevailed several times at the provincial level. I think with the NDP draining working class Liberal votes away in Brantford, and with the augmentation of the rural section of the riding, I think the Conservatives may nip this riding out...Suggestion is Conservatives 36%, Liberals, 33% NDP 30% and Greens 3%
14/06/04 Chris
Email: [hidden]
Conservatives will squeak out a win here - they are currently 3 to 4 points ahead in the Ontario polls - the incumbent factor is gone - Greg Martin is the only candidate with a public profile, having been elected and re-elected to Brantford City Council. Lynn Bowering is a strong NDP candidate, along with her dynamic leader, Jack Layton, they will split the left vote in this riding. Furthermore, Greg Martin is family with the Nixon's - he is Jane Stewart's second cousin - the family dynasty will live on - except this time it will change to the Conservatives!!
14/06/04 Brant Liberal
Email: [hidden]
Oh Dave Mann come on! You and everyone else in the riding knows that "Rogers and some others" have not done a poll putting the NDP in first place locally.
Really, making stuff up is not going to win you this riding or any other riding.
This riding is a contest between Liberals and Conservatives. Strategic voting will result in a Liberal win or a Tory steal. The NDP could be spoilers based on current national and provincial polling but I think this will remain a Liberal riding.
13/06/04 RTV Webmaster
Email: rtvwebmaster@rogers.com
Regarding the poll mentioned by Dave Mann, it currently sits at 73% Lib and 27% NDP.
The poll had to be reset due to tampering.
http://www.rogerstelevision.com/option.asp?lid=14&rid=7
09/06/04 Dave Mann, Brant NDP
Email: davemann@cogeco.ca
This riding must be too close to call and will remain so until the end.
P.O.A.'s commented, "Dave Mann's comments about St. Amand being a poor public speaker - screaming at the top of your lungs and pounding the podium does not make for effective public speaking."
Who pounds the table and screams? Last night I attended the first all candidates debate and it confirmed what I submitted earlier. St. Amand can be my philosophy professor but as a politician his speaking style is uninspiring. Bowering was far more convincing and Greg Martin left a powerful impression.
I just heard that a poll done by Rogers and others had this result: NDP 34%, P.C. 33%, Libs 33%. -- let's see if the rumour is true.
03/06/04 Brant Voter 04
Email: [hidden]
Brant is definetly Liberal. There is no doubt Lloyd will take this seat as no one in this area likes Martin excpet his riding, He is arrogant and not like by Brantfordian let alone Brant County. He works in Toronto as well. This adds up to a St. Amand win with 75%
26/05/04 P.A.O.
Email: [hidden]
The submissions of Greg and Dave Mann simply do not stand up to reason nor are they supported by the facts. Firstly, Dave Levac continues to represent this riding in an exemplary manner. Ask the mayor and City Council if Mr. Levac invested little time in his constituency when he arranged a meeting for them with the Provincial Government concerning Brownfields. Mr. Levac was praised by City Council and Ms. Ceschi-Smith. Mr. Levac has been the the hardest working MPP this riding has seen in a generation.
As for Dave Mann's comments about St. Amand being a poor public speaker - screaming at the top of your lungs and pounding the podium does not make for effective public speaking. Mr. St. Amand is a very good public speaker. His measured approach and intelligent delivery is a welcome relief from the blathering and negativity of others. I look forward to the debate when the voters of Brant can see Mr. St. Amand and Ms. Bowering side-by-side and then they can decide for themselves who is the effective public speaker.
During his speech, Mr. St. Amand did not proclaim himself to be a Chrietien Liberal. He did however say that he was proud of some of the decisions Mr. Crietien made, namely, the decision not to support the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Who in Canada regrets that decision now?
As for the comment that Ms. Ceschi-Smith will support the NDP because her husband does - when was it decided that a women can not make a political decision on her own? Ms. Ceschi-Smith is an intelligent and politically sophisticated women who publically proclaimed that she is a proud Liberal.
Lastly, the comments concerning Chris Friel are completely ludicrous. Mr. Friel backing Ms. Bowering are a pip dream. If anything, Mr. Friel's supporters would be more inclined to vote Conservative. Mr. Friel has not made a public statement one way or another but don't be suprised if he backs Mr. St. Amand.
26/05/04 Brian Van Tilborg
Email: madmax@bfree.on.ca
Wow!!! The Brant riding is completely up for grabs. Jane Stewart would have been a lock regardless of liberal circumstances. The NDP look like they will be strong contenders, and can take this riding based upon the strength of their candidate. It will still be a 3 way race. The Liberals have held this riding for 10 years, but before that it was NDP under Derek Blackburn for something like 20 years. The conservatives may get a boost from redistribution, but again much of the rural territory holds a Nixon/Stewart legacy.
But with the electorate seeking change, I will predict an NDP victory.
25/05/04 Brant Liberal
Email:
Query "Price's" knowledge of the riding, the relative strengths of each candidate and impact of historic and national trends locally.
The previous poster has misspelled the Liberal Candidate's name, causing one to think that perhaps Price is not as knowledgeable about this riding as other ridings.
This riding should remain a Liberal lock.
24/05/04 Greg
Email: [hidden]
I believe the NDP has an excellent chance of taking this riding. Lynn Bowering is a strong candidate who has a tremendous amount of experience in the health care field, something the other candidates lack.
The Liberals, believe it or not, are having problems in this riding. Dave Levac, the Provincial MPP for Brant, was re-elected in 2003 for his work in constituency affairs. Now that he is the party whip, many people in the riding have been complaining he invests little time into constituency affairs anymore. And sometimes voters will blame the federal Liberals for what problems their provincial cousins have created, as what happened in the week before the writ was dropped (the NDP picked up support after the Ontario Liberals passed their budget.)
This anger certainly won’t go to Tories to this left-of-centre urban riding. The last time Brant elected a federal Tory was in the 1950s Diefenbaker sweep. Add the fact that the NDP has had a strong historic presence in this riding since the 1960s, and you have an NDP win.
24/05/04 Dave Mann, Brant NDP
Email: davemann@cogeco.ca
I think the previous posters' assumptions of Brant being solid Liberal territory is very reasonable. This is the Liberals riding to lose but they are doing everything in their power to throw it away. In this riding local politics matter more than most ridings. The previous posters may think this my contribution may be all a bunch of whoey, but perhaps they will find it entertaining (this is what Brant New Democrats are smoking):
1 St. Amand is a little dull. Its incredible how a lawyer of his experience can lack public speaking ability. The more often he addresses an audience the more voters will consider another candidate. And being a divorce lawyer is not a way to win friends. Even if he is a great lawyer you can be sure some of his former clients will blame him for their travails.
2 During his nomination speech St. Amand proudly proclaimed himself to be a Chrétien Liberal. Why would a clear thinking politician do that? Paul Martin will certainly not be campaigning in this riding. And if the voters want their elected rep to be in cabinet, then St. Amand is definitely not the man.
3 St. Amand defeated five candidates to secure the nomination. Supporters from two of those camps are unlikely to stay loyal to the Liberal cause:
3.1 Ceschi-Smith supporters are the more left-wing, community activist types that Paul Martin has been driving away from party. Her husband and daughter are still paid-up members of the Brant NDP and her husband ran for the NDP in 1993. There's a good chance the NDP candidate, Lynn Bowering, also a successful career woman can pick up that support.
3.2 Chris Friel: The former Mayor of Brantford doesn't take defeat well. Either losing the municipal election or the Liberal nomination. He also has a unique ability to transmit his vindictiveness to his supporters, so do not be suprised if Friel supporters back Bowering - out of spite.
4 The Conservative merger has left wounds that will take a generation to heal: When the local conservative executive announced the results of the merger vote they said it was 90% in favour. I do not have the exact number but I believe the results were more like 24 to 39. As a result there are plenty of Red Tories and David Orchard supporters who look at Lynn Bowering and see a very acceptable person. She doesn't fit the negative sterotype of an NDPer at all. She's a Rotarian!
5 Roberta Jamieson, Six Nations Band Council Chief, may be a card carrying Liberal but that could just be to help her career. She has nothing but positive things to say about Layton and Brant NDP candidate Lynn Bowering and the citizens of the Six Nations have a good reason not to vote Liberal. It is because the Election Comisson did not count people living on the reserve.
The population of Brant Riding is 20.39% above the provincial quotient. The new Federal Riding of Brant has 129,595 people. That is 20.39% over the provincial quotient, and makes it the biggest riding in Ontario. The next biggest is Mississauga - Cooksville at 122,192.
http://www12.statcan.ca/english/profil01/PlaceSearchForm1.cfm
Check Brant County, you will find it is shown as 118,485 people with a note "Excludes census data for incompletely enumerated Indian reserves or Indian settlements." One of those is Six Nations (Reserve No. 40), which is almost all within the geographic boundaries of Brant County. So there could be a surprise from "the Bush." Not that it goes NDP but the number of people who actually vote.
23/05/04 Price
Email: [hidden]
With Jane Stewart gone, this seat is not a Liberal shoo-in. The big questions are: will the Conservatives be the obvious focus for the anti-government votes or will the NDP return to historic levels of support in Brantford and make this a three-way race? Either way, Lloyd St. Armand is not the strongest candidate that the Liberals could have fielded and if the federal Liberal campaign begins to run into trouble, riding like Brant and marginal candidates like St. Armand will feel the ground shifting under them very quickly. Don't know the outcome yet, but it is way too early to mark this one as Liberal.
12/05/04 Jeremy
Email: [hidden]
The previous poster makes a good point about the candidates not being well known, especially to those in the County. I am a member of the LPC and have also never heard of the Lib candidate - if you ask me Cesci-Smith or Friel would have made a better fight. Having said that, I think Amand is the most polished of the candidates and will take this riding, with the NDP turning a few heads - coming in a close third to the Conservatives.
11/05/04 Arzie Chant
Email: achant@uwo.ca
Under redistribution, this is now my riding. I'm sort of disappointed that Jane Stewart is not running again, because then there would be no contest here and she was a good MP. In addition, I am not really impressed yet with the new Liberal candidate.
In terms of anyone predicting a Conservative threat, I'd ask them to please share what they are huffing because the CPC doesn't have a prayer here. Yes, Greg Martin is a recognizable name... to some. A common and insulting mistake of a few posters was the suggestion that Brant consists of only Brantford City. It is fact both the County of Brant and City of Brantford, which are seperate, soverign municipalities. Greg Martin is a councillor in Brantford, largely unknown to many wards and a virtual stranger in Brant County. Those making predictions as if they know the area like the back of their hand would do well to learn the basic geographical facts about it first.
As for the NDP, they have a chance, but not a big one. Prior to Jane Stewart, Brant was NDP. It is not the Liberal stronghold some envision it to be. With current Liberal problems and the obvious shift to right wing policies under Martin, voters in Brant may be left craving something a little more left.
Personally, knowing the personalities back home, I suspect a lot of this will come down to who is running. Greg Martin will probably garner some votes simply on who he is, not on the laurels of the CPC (which is good b/c they have no laurels). The Liberal candidate is not that well-known. Having been born and raised in the area, I never heard of the man. I was also unimpressed with his speeches at the Brant nomination meeting. My impression was that I was not alone in that. The NDP candidate is unknown to me, but given her opponents I think she'll have the easiest job winning people over. Nonetheless, it has been a long time since the NDP have held Brant. I think in the end, it will be the people who are in the habit of voting Liberal that deliver this riding back to the Grits.
06/05/04 P.A.O.
Email: [hidden]
Brant will remain a Liberal riding. The campaign in Brantford will focus on local issues. While the Conservatives do have a viable candidate, it will not be enough to come close to the Liberals who swept this riding by 20,000 votes last time around.
02/05/04 Brant Liberal
Email: [hidden]
This riding will stay Liberal. No credible threat from NDP. Tories have the wrong candidate (too Reform/Alliance).
That said, this will not be the 20,000 vote pluarlity of Jane Stewart.
01/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
On a raw historical basis, this looks like an all-too-tempting NDP target; it was, until 1993, the idiosyncratic stronghold of Derek Blackburn. But that machine collapsed after Blackburn was patronage-appointed out of his misery; and while faint vestiges of NDP strength remain in the central and south parts of town, the industrial base that sustained it (Massey-Ferguson et al) has gone into eclipse. Today, Brantford is half beleaguered rust-belt casualty, half cheap branch-plant exurb of Hamilton or K-W, and has insufficient creative-classness for the new-model Layton Democrats--they'd have to run on populist steam here. On the other hand, it's never quite succeeded like Cambridge at building a truly robust right-populist blue-collar ReformaTory machine, either. Maybe that's why Brant's voters were so stunningly forgiving of the already controversy-plagued Jane Stewart in 2000; like Brantford was Ontario's Shawinigan, or something. Right now, as an open seat, it simply looks confused, and confusing, although the superficial chips favour the Liberals by elimination...
20/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
The Liberals seem to have a wide enough margin from last time to take this riding again. There may be a Conservative upset though, but for now, I'm predicting the Libs
19/03/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca

This is pretty safe Liberal country, even if the Nixon-Stewart dynasty isn't represented on the ballot.


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