Projet D'Élection Prévision
www.electionprediction.com
Don Valley East
Don Valley-Est
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale
|
Update/Mise à jour: 8:25 PM 6/26/2004 
Prediction Changed La prévision a changé 8:25 PM 6/26/2004 |
Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription
Candidates/candidats:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
 |
Communist: Christopher Black | ||||||
 |
Conservatives/Conservateurs: David Johnson | ||||||
 |
Christian Héritage Chrétien: Ryan Kidd | ||||||
 |
Green Party/Parti Vert: Dan King | ||||||
 |
N.D.P./N.P.D.: Valerie Mah | ||||||
|
Liberal Party/Parti libéral: Yasmin Ratansi | ||||||
|
|||||||
Incumbents/Les députés: | |||||||
|
Don Valley East (100.0%) Hon. David Collenette | ||||||
2000 Result/Résultats:
| Redistributed | ||
 |
24,188 | 66.26% |
 |
5,407 | 14.81% |
 |
4,454 | 12.20% |
 |
2,107 | 5.77% |
| 347 | 0.95% | |
Don Valley East (181/194 polls, 67864/71221 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 24188 | |
| 4454 | |
| 2107 | |
| 5407 | |
| 347 | ||
 |
| Sponsoring this space? See sponsorship details |
|
21/06/04 | don mills guy Email: | |
| I think the Liberals will eak this one out - Mr. Johnson is not well known in the north end, and DVE includes lot of apartments, townhouses and duplexes - prime Liberal areas. Last election was 24,000 to 10,000 if you combine CA and PC votes. | |||
|
21/06/04 | Full Name Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca | |
| Like most Liberal ridings in the 416 and 905 with arrogant cabinet ministers in them, this one is going to the either the NDP or the Conservatives and with former Mayor, Ontario PC MPP, Health and Education Minister David "Won't Scrap Rent Control" Johnson who was supposed to cool things down between the schools and the Ontario Tory government and really played the bandage for the most part expect Grit Yasmin Ratansi to be wrapped around his big Red neo-conservative finger. People dislike David Caplin, not sure if it is because of Elinore or just because he is cocky, maybe its just his slimy smile but they feel he is incompetent and lazy, which makes me wonder why did they ever re-elect him and his hated government provincially then. Though people may think the Tories will take health care federally where the Tories took education provincially and make David their Chairman of Management Board as he was during the Ontario Public Service Strike with a federal one to match, the key is the 416-905 traditional values immigrant vote so look for the Christian Heritage candidate to go for the ethnic vote on the Same-Sex Marriage issue, where he went in this area last time, and take some votage from the Johnson in Don Valley East. | |||
|
21/06/04 | DL Email: [hidden] | |
| Not so fast Mr. Gibson. This is not Dave Johnson's seat: at least not yet. It is a vacant seat held by the Liberals, and it looks it may remain in red hands. Serious questions have risen concerning the Conservative agenda, and to be quite honest, people (Even moderate conservatives like myself) don't like Harris Tories coming back for scraps. Liberal Hold, for better or worse. | |||
|
17/06/04 | J Email: [hidden] | |
| I would be very surprised if the Dave Johnson name holds much sway with voters. Remember his glorious defeat as Education Minister in 1999? If anything his name hurt him. Particularly since it was associated with the whole education debacle. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if this is all people remember him for. I wouldn't say his chances are that good. | |||
|
17/06/04 | Mike Email: [hidden] | |
| Both the Globe and the Star have claimed that Johnson will be a very likely candidate for Finance Minister, and I think voters here would love to have that kind of representation, especially because Rantisi is relatively a nobody (and after years of Collennette, they are used to strong representation). It seems that Harper's middle-class tax cuts and $2000 child reductions are really hitting home in this riding, especially because this is your typical, middle class, hard working riding. Harper came here last week, and did very well, and there was a large response in the community. And, if it is any indication, the Lick's poll here shows the Conservatives with 42% and the Liberals with only 25%! Personally, I odn't even think it will be a squeaker. Conservatives: 48 Liberals: 39 NDP: 9 Others: 4 | |||
| 14/06/04 | BG Email: [hidden] | ||
| Don Valley East (DVE) is still too close to call because, among other things, we have two excellent candidates in Johnson and Ratansi. Having met -and being impressed by- both of them, I feel our riding will be well served by either candidate. As for the NDP, although I have seen more NDP signs than in recent elections, they are only in a battle to get their deposit back; it's always a two way race in DVE. | |||
| 13/06/04 | Ray Email: [hidden] | ||
| Just recieved my 4th Ratansi pamphlet of the campaign. She is really getting the flyers out. She seems to have a fair bit of lawn sign support as well around the Northern part of the riding. Johnson has a bigger name recognition which may pull him over the top against Ratansi. Harper stopped by last week here, as well as in DVW. I think DVW has a greater chance of going Conservative than DVE does, but if voter outrage is high enough, DVE will be one of the few 416 ridings to go blue on election night. Overall, still a not an overwhelming sense of victory from either the liberals or the conservatives. | |||
| 07/06/04 | 416 Insider Email: [hidden] | ||
| David Johnson's strength is clearly in the Southern half of this riding. In the north end, people at the door ask, "David who?". It should also be pointed out that he did not represent any of this area when he was Mayor of East York. On the other hand, NO ONE in the riding knows who Yasmin Ratansi is. Johnson is a good campaigner and proven winner. However, this is not 1995 and he still has a very tough fight against the Liberals. The Conservative brand has not been fully accepted in urban Toronto. This is too close to call. | |||
|
03/06/04 | Ken Gibson Email: [hidden] | |
| I can't believe people think Johnson could lose this seat. As a resident of the riding I can tell you that he's out in a big way. I've had a few brochures from him and his signs are everywhere. I haven't seen one large Liberal sign anywhere - just those tiny bag signs. If Torontonians read the papers they will read that Johnson could be in line for Finance Minister in a Harper Government. I'm sure the voters would love to have a powerful and influential Minister represent them. | |||
|
02/06/04 | MSH Email: [hidden] | |
| David Collenette won this handily; his successor will have a tougher time. If there is a major swing in T.O. towards the Tories this seat could fall to them. On the other hand, if DVE voters remember that Johnson was a member of a government that laid waste to Ontario's infrastructure and imposed amalgamation on an unwilling city there is no way they will vote for him. But many voters' memories are short, and some of them seem ever ready believe that there is such a thing as a free lunch, that you can cut taxes without cutting services. So: DVE should stay Liberal, but I wouldn't bet the family homestead on it. | |||
|
29/05/04 | Jt Email: [hidden] | |
| With the Liberals sinking in the polls I count this as one of two CPC pickups in Toronto. If the Liberals picked a stra candidate they would win this. However, they are running a lightweight against Dave Johnson who has the potential to be key number of a CPC caucus. | |||
| 29/05/04 | R.J. Email: rjk@ca.inter.net | ||
| I drive throught the riding en route to work. To date I have already noticed a predominance of Liberal signs in the eastern half and Conservative signs in the western half of the riding. Both Ratansi and Johnson have in the political game for a while. Rantansi has been in the hunt for a successful nomination bid the last while, while Johnson has been looking for a resurrection post-Mike Harris. So, DVE is too close to call for now. This race will depend on their respective riding associations and campaign volunteer's capacities to market their candidate. | |||
|
23/05/04 | Ashish Kabir Email: [hidden] | |
| Yasmin Ratansi's team has a tough fight and they know it. This riding would be as comfortable pushing a Conservative mandate as Monia Mazigh is likely to win in Monte Solberg's Medicine Hat. However, Dave Johnson is smart also - a provincial star with high name recognition in the riding, a clean reputation personally and pretty much the Tory's best chance in this province. The former PC campaign machinery is itching for a fight and they'll pull all the stops - however, when the dust settles, people comprising the majority of this riding, if they can be dragged to the polls, will not be checking the Dave Johnson box. I wonder if we'll see transportation minister Ratansi anytime soon.... | |||
| 18/05/04 | J Poole Email: [hidden] | ||
| It's important to remember that Dave Johnson lost the 99 election here mainly because he was the provicial education Minister during a particulairly difficult and trying time, cleaning up a mess left by the previous Minister. Prior to that he was Chair of Management Board during the Ont. Public Service strike. The fact that he was the man entrusted with such responsibilities shows his capabilities. If elected, Dave Johnson would not only be a good MP, but would be a great example to other Tories of how to break through in Toronto and urban Ontario. If the campaign is going well in other important areas, then Harper should try to push hard in this riding. That said, leadership visits ect won't do very much here or anywhere in Toronto. | |||
|
16/05/04 | B. Stewart Email: [hidden] | |
| Dave Johnson may be a good candidate but the Liberals aren't going to lose any 416 area seats to the Conservatives. With vote-split seats being questionable for a Tory win this time I just can't see DVE not going Liberal. | |||
|
13/05/04 | K.W. Email: [hidden] | |
| Dave Johnson provincial election pamphlet promised "not to scrap rent controls", ... yet the Ontario PC's under Harris did just that ! And considering David Caplan the ONT MPP trounced you so bad last time because of that, ... you conservatives have about as much chance as the NDP have here. | |||
|
12/05/04 | Nick Boragina Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com | |
| When a large party wants to win a close race bad enough, they usually can pull it off, granted the other guys are not dumping their money in here. it's much more of a win for the tories to get 1 toronto seat, then a loss for the grits to have 1 tory in toronto. The conservatives should be able to take this one based on the distribution of resoruces. | |||
|
06/05/04 | Predictionborough Email: | |
| This is one of those races where the strength of the local campaign will put the party over. Besides the experience and community ties that Dave Johnson has in the riding--and having come out of the CSR years with the reputation as one of Harris' most competent ministers--the DVE Conservative organisation seems to have hit the ground running. Even if the CPC is only polling 25% overall in Metro, Johnson could still poll 45%. Throw in a resurgent NDP and the loss of Collenette, and the Grits' chances look even more bleak. Don Valley East is definitely going blue -- one of only two Toronto seats that will be that way come the end of this election. | |||
| 06/05/04 | Ken White Email: [hidden] | ||
| Yes call this a close race - an excellent race actually. Dave Johnson is the perfect fit and is undoubtedly the highest profile running in Southern Ontario. The National Post has built this race as the second riding to watch to the Mills and Layton match. Dave is well known, experienced and has great integrity. He is just what Ottawa needs. He has a record of coming through and certainly many will agree that we need someone going to bat for us in Toronto! | |||
|
04/05/04 | Name Witheld Email: [hidden] | |
| Yasmin Ratansi ran for the federal Liberals in Don Valley East in 1988 against Allan Redway, and lost by about 2000 votes. She's also held positions in the Ontario Liberal Party. She is not a political newcomer. The riding itself is majority non-white, majority non-Anglophone, and majority immigrant. Collenette won 2/3s of the vote in 2000, and Liberal David Caplan won 51% in 1999 (against 43% for Tory Dave Johnston) and 57% last fall (against 32% for Tory Paul Sutherland). As long as Harper's Conservatives are stumbling around 25% in Ontario as a whole, even the best local Conservative candidate has no chance in Toronto. Only if the Liberals blow the National campaign does Sutherland have a chance locally. It's possible, but unlikely. | |||
| 02/05/04 | A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com | ||
| Lest it be forgotten, Yasmin Ratansi has a "record" here: back in the non-Collenette interregnum, she ran an almost-tight race in 1988 against another ex-East York mayor, Alan Redway. (Which was impressive, given that candidates of non-Euro-American stock were more of a rarity then--and of course, the demographics have subsequently favoured Ratansi over Redway.) Generally speaking, DV East is not as much of an uppercrust Tory "natural" as DV West--in pre-1993 terms, it was more of a "swing" riding. Still, the local Tories are trying what they tried provincially with Paul Sutherland last year: putting up a splendid campaign and splendid organization on behalf of a lost cause, but cross one's fingers. But it'll only go Tory if DV West leads the way, Dave Johnson or no Dave Johnson--but a David & David Don Valley twofer is still within radar. Or it *would* be, were this not the 416. | |||
|
01/05/04 | Ryan White Email: [hidden] | |
| Don Valley East has the best Tory candidate in Toronto. I live in the riding and follow politics when I can but aren't involved in any campaign. I have voted for Collenette but have no bones about Dave Johnson and his candidacy with the Conservative party. He's got integrity, he's down to earth and often came in to clean up after Mike Harris. The Liberals are scrambling here now and Dave has the support of municipal politicos Councillor Denzil Minnan-Wong and former Councillor Paul Sutherland. Dave is quite a pickup for the Tories and my prediction is that Dave wins by 2000 and picks up the only seat in Toronto. Bottom line. Case closed. Tell me - how many politicians do you know that have served for 25 years? Few in Toronto to say the least! | |||
|
28/04/04 | Not Non-Partisan Email: [hidden] | |
| I get a kick of of EPP editors who refuse to give Johnson the benefit of the doubt and call this too close to call. If they think that Beaches-East York is close, I cant understand how they don't see this one. Not only do I see it as close, I give Johnson a much better chance than any of the candidates in B-EY! | |||
| 15/04/04 | Dean Email: deansherratt@rogers.com | ||
| David Johnston is an excellent candidate for the Conservatives. In 1999, he was tarred for the Conservative education policies, but was otherise a fine member and cabinet minister. he has a long way to carry the riding for the Party, but is the best long-distance runner of the lot. | |||
|
13/04/04 | Not Non-Partisan Email: [hidden] | |
| Dave Johnson will win this riding easily over Lib newcomer Yasmin Ratansi who got a tepid endorsement from her local association at its nomination and the Greeks and Armenians who didn't support her will stay home. Johnson will not be the easy target that he was in the 1999 provincial campaign when teachers organized in force against him and in support of the already formidable local Caplan machine, which isn't enough too drag along Ratansi. Look for Johnson on Tory front bench. | |||
|
13/04/04 | Mike Email: [hidden] | |
| Let's face it: the Liberal candidate is not a "one-in-a-million" candidate nor is she known in the community. (i dont even think she has too much political experience)We now look to the Conservatives- who picked Dave Johnson, the one time Ontario Health and Education Minister, who is well liked in the riding. (he lost the provinical elections in '99, but he was then part of a sometimes loathed government) Johnson has the experience, the name, and trust to win Don Valley East, and don't even think his "baggage" will hurt him, people already forgot his dismal showing when he was education minister. Especially, now that the Liberals are the new enemy both Provinicially and Federally, Ontarians forgot how much they despeised the Conservatives. | |||
|
11/04/04 | Jonathan C. Email: [hidden] | |
| Former mayor and Ontario Minister of education Dave Johnson has just been nominated as the Conservative candidate. He is very popular and will take the seat if the federal campaign goes well for the Conservatives. There's money and good organizers going there to help out. | |||
|
17/03/04 | RWA Email: [hidden] | |
| Toronto Liberal stronghold that doesn't look like an inviting seat for either the COnservatives or NDP. | |||
Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici
Return to/retournez à - Provincial Index/Actualité provinciale
Return to/retournez à - 2004 Federal Election Prediction/Prévision de élection générale 2004
© 1999-2004 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com - Email Webmaster