Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Don Valley West
Don Valley-Ouest

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:07 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:25 AM 6/3/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Serge Abbat
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
John Godfrey
David Thomas
David Turnbull

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Don Valley West (100.0%)
Hon. John Godfrey

2000 Result/Résultats:
24,911 55.44%
10,432 23.22%
7,051 15.69%
1,985 4.42%
553 1.23%

Don Valley West
(192/195 polls, 75189/75189 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Authorized by the Official Agent for John Godfrey
24/06/04 don mills guy
No doubt that Godfrey will take this again for the Liberals. While there are large areas of single family homes (and in particular areas like Lawrence Park) that are Conservative, the riding includes Overlea, Flemingdon Park and other areas that are overwhelmingly Liberal. Turnbull is not particularly well liked despite the name recognition from his days in provincial government. Godfrey is often on tV representing the Liberals, and has the Mayors endorsement - only one of 4 people to get that!
24/06/04 Doug
Email: [hidden]
Mayor Miller was out on the hustings this morning at Yonge & Eglinton in support of John Godfrey. In addition to Miller greeting people at the subway there was a team of workers handing out a pamphlet with Miller's endorsement. Given the mayor's popularity this is could be a boost for Godfrey. On the other hand, bringing out big guns like the mayor contradicts some earlier posters who suggested that Don Valley West was safe (as indicated by the pulling of Grit resources to other ridings). Not sure how to interpret this one, but probably pulls in favour of Godfrey over Turnbull.
22/06/04 Full Name
Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
In Don Valley West, David Turnbull and John Godfrey are basically the same candidate, just a different party or is it, just showing how tweedle-dee and tweedle-dum these two are with tweedle-dumber tagging not so far behind as the BQ inside Quebec and the NDP outside La Belle Province. Turnbull has always been the first Conservative candidate with his advertising aka propaganda out there in his riding and am surprised that, despite buying the most election signs of any of them out there in the province, he didn't buy the sponsorship link above this prediciton here where Godfrey smartily beat him to the punch. The election itself, again it is really a who-the-heck-cares type one here but with much vote-the-bums-out talk, the same talk we heard in 2003 about the Tory candidate's government, the skinny is fiscally conservative, socially liberal Leaside was home to a Young Liberal policy director Stephen Harper in the late 70s so expect David to replace John as they trade Blue and Red Book covers for their inner policy pages before going to Ottawa.
22/06/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
Here we are again. Another Turnbull attempt, yet another imminent failure. A week before the last provincial election, I predicted Turnbull's bid was crumbling faster than a game of Jenga. This time, the decline has been more gradual- like a bilingual Air Canada plane slowly hovering lower and lower near the landing strip at Pearson. Supposedly, Turnbull turned in a stinker performance at the all candidates meeting ih Leaside. The buzz is the audience turned on him. I suspect voters will do the same-AGAIN.
Godfrey will squeak by and maintain his well earned seat.
21/06/04 Tony
Email: alh@gmx.ch
Traditional Non NDP riding, a national NDP leader focusing on urban issues, well known, popular incumbent is struggling -- tough to see how this riding is in any way competitive for the Liberals, even before their recent troubles. Turnbull get few votes in rosedale area. but most populated areas are anti liberal sentiment after the recent ontario Budget, A good riding to watch.
20/06/04 Roger
Email: [hidden]
OK, I'll admit it: Turnbull had about a week at the beginning of the campaign where his camp experienced some lukewarm "momentum" but thankfully that has fizzled quicker than an open can of diet coke.
Much has been made of his penchant for "dirty tricks". Fortunately, for the common good of the riding, his team he can't pick apart the opponent's sexual orientation this time, as Mr. Godfrey is straight.
16/06/04 Robin R
Email: [hidden]
Liberal hold (48 Lib, 41 Cons, 7 NDP, 4 other) --
1) Godfrey is personally popular, well recognized in the riding, and plays well to the "fiscally conservative, socially liberal" Leaside crowd, which decides these elections.
2) Turnbull lost by 15 points to a virtual unknown in the provincial election. While he might pick up a handful of points in the south Banbury area and the Donway area, it won't be enough to overcome the difference.
3) Flemingdon & Thorncliffe are as strongly Liberal as they've ever been. The NDP will get their usual 5% support in the riding, but not much more. And more than a few people will switch to the Liberals to keep the Conservatives out.
4) Signs don't matter much. Yes, Turnbull is out-signing Godfrey 2: or even 3:1, but this is insignificant because (a) most people don't have any signs up at all, and it's impossible to know how they're going to vote, (b) homeowners (who are more right-leaning) are more likely to display signs than are apartment-dwelling tenants (who are more centrist or left-leaning), and (c) it's no big surprise that the Bridle Path, Upper Highland, Banbury areas are Turnbull supporters.
16/06/04 To Legal Citizen
Email: [hidden]
To legal citizen: Your prediction that Thomas will win is completely wrong and downright malinformed. Perhaps in the Thornclife Area of the riding he is doing okay, but this riding covers a large amount of space and a lot of people. I mean it is one of the largest, if not the largest, riding in Toronto. Conequently, the riding encompasses poorer areas, and the most richest in the country. Hate to break it to you, but Millwood was never considered part of the latter category, if you want to go to REALLY affluent and Tory areas, head to the very North where you will find York Mills Gardens, Owen and the Bridle Path. Here, Turnbull is dominating. Generally this area massively outpolls the southern areas as well. Becuase voters know that the NDP will have absolutely no presence in the riding up in the north, left wing voters will vote Liberal just to avoid splitting the left. All in all, if you still believe Thomas can take it away from both the experienced Turnbull and the popular Godfrey, do the math. The NDP got only 5% of the vote here last time, and that was also with a South-Asian Candidate. It's Godfrey vs. Turnbull and it is one hell of a race.
16/06/04 MH
Email: [hidden]
For what it's worth, Liberal insiders believe this one to be safely theirs. A colleague who is active in the Liberal campaign in Danforth tells me that workers are being pulled into that riding from ridings judged to be safe. She singled out Don Valley West as one seat in Metro that's well out of danger of going anything but Liberal.
15/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
Liberal hold - just. Notice that the onld PC had better support than the Alliance. Some of this may fall off to the Liberal. Some Harper-fear here. Godfrey is known just well enough, and Turnbull is known as well, but associated with Harris-Eves. NDP will pick up a handful. predict 44 Libs, CPC 40, NDP 9
13/06/04 Legal Citizen
You guys simply forgett the the NDP. Candidate here Mr David Thomas.He is a Asian and a Sri Lankan Orgin.In the Area of Flemigton park, there 35000 votes to be grab in that90% from South asian Immigrant,and those 35000 votes about 9000 SriLankan Tamil Votes.I am 100% sure all the tamil votes+South Asian votes + NDP votes. Makes this riding a 3 way race.I dont think anyone from these areas and thorncliffe park drive high rise building area anyone will vote for Anyone but Consevertive Mr Turnbull.
He lost the Provincal election badly to a new comer from Liberal.but Turnbull has few signs,in the high class Area near Milwood.
12/06/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
People don't like Turnbull. They like the Conservatives A LOT, but they dislike the candidate. I went polling in an area where the Conservatives will have to sweep to win this riding, and too many people demonstrated their dislike for the man. If it was strictly which party is more popular in the riding, it would be a Conservative landslide, but when Turnbull's name comes into the equation, it is very hard to predict. I am still going to give this one right now to the Conservatives, because with over 35% in Ontario they should pick one up somewhere in Toronto. But it is still TOO CLOSE TO CALL.
12/06/04 Jimmy
Email: [hidden]
I live in this riding and it is just too close to call. There are an even number of Grit and Tory signs (as well as a small sprinkling of NDP signs, mostly on public property since most NDP supporters in the riding are tenants). If I had to make a call at this point I would have to give the riding to the Tory, David Turnbull. While I personally would not vote for an ex-Harrisite one has to remember the make up of this riding: York Mills - traditionally Conservative; Briddlepath Area - rich and right wing, Leaside - enlightened but affluent (likely to split 50-50 Grit and Tory); Thorncliffe Park - immigrants and tenants who will likely stay home on election day with the few who do vote spliting NDP/Grit; Flemmingdon Park - low income tenants who are unlikely to vote and those who do will split between the Grits and NDP.
10/06/04 MTC
Email: [hidden]
Incredible as it may seem, this could be one of the first 416 ridings to fall to the Conservatives the night of June 28th. I live in Beaches East York, but signs the Liberal's Toronto Fortress is starting to crack are now everywhere you look. We'll see what happens after the Debate. Meanwhile, the Blue Seige continues...
10/06/04 416 Insider
Email: joel_nathan2004@hotmail.com
This is another one to watch on election night. The Tories have a real shot here and would be an even better position if Godfrey was a lame duck MP. The problem for the Tories is that Godfrey is a good MP and may be able to survive. There are very mixed reviews about Turnbull, but it is clear to anyone who takes a walk in the riding that his campaign is growing. Talking to some folks on the inside of the campaign tell me that anger against the provincial Liberals is very high over the budget. This is where Turnbull's past association with the provincial Tories may help him.
Too close to call, but I am leaning towards Turnbull.
07/06/04 DL
Mr. Godfrey is an affable sort and definately deserves a return to Ottawa. Turnbull was just tossed out of here soundly. For him to think he can slide in after putting in a few dubious terms on behalf of Mike Harris and Co. is beyond me. He was beaten easily last time. His supporters will argue that he is winning the sign war. He had tons of signs last time and was turfed.
05/06/04 MK
Email: [hidden]
Don Valley West is a very interesting riding. Historically, a small-c conservative riding that has since come to include the area of Flemington Park, a traditional Liberal bastion of support. Count on strong support for the Conservatives in traditionally small-c pockets of the riding. This was a classic case of vote splitting in the last election. Putting together the PC and Alliance vote in 2000 wouldn't have taken the riding (together 39%), but I'd say that the new Conservatives will be able to count on obtaining virtually all of this support on June 28. I believe that after factoring in the Liberal slide and the Conservative climb, it is quite feasible that Mr. Turnbull will be able to inch over Mr. Godfrey in the riding.
Lawn signs: 4:1 or higher for Mr. Turnbull. Much different than in 2000, when there were many more Liberal signs. Perhaps this signals low morale amongst Liberal supporters which could relay into low voter turnout on election night compared to an energized Conservative base.
Last point: People in Don Valley West are used to placing an X next to Mr. Turnbull in that ballot box provincially. He is a household name that people won't find hard to choose.
This should be the first riding in the 416 to go blue.
04/06/04 Eric T
Email: [hidden]
Lots of Liberal signs up now, and Godfrey has solid name recognition, and certainly a much tougher opponent than anyone Trumbull ever beat as an MPP. DT has also never had a great reputation or been fantastically inspiring and was one of the less impressive members of Harris' caucus. With the Liberals stabilizing and the Conservatives showing their wild Reform colors on social issues, and all 3 major dailies splashing major coverage on Harper's uncomfortable twisting on abortion especially, I think Godfrey should take it.
03/06/04 AGR
Email: [hidden]
David Turnbull is probably the only person with as bad an Auditors report on a ministry (2) as Galiano. Godfrey has been getting alot of good press lately on the New Deal for Cities and is well liked in the riding. Barring a total collapse by the Liberals this riding will go to John Godfrey. Godfrey beat the combined Alliance and Tory vote by 7,500 and owns the most densley populated areas of the riding. The Mayors endorsement is a good boost as well. All totaled, Toronto still remembers the Provincial Tories very well so a rather poorly performing minister from that group will not inspire the red tories in this riding much.
01/06/04 The Lobbyist
Email: [hidden]
As of right now, I anticipate this riding being among the very last 416 jurisdictions to render a decision on election night. As such, despite the fact that it's new and scary to consider Toronto ridings featuring popular Liberal candidates as potential toss-ups, this district should be moved to the "too close to call" category.
Godfrey is popular, no doubt about it. He WILL poll ahead of the party in this riding. But if we were to GENEROUSLY split the difference between his 2000 support and Ipsos current projections, we're talking a current level of support hovering at somewhere around 45%. This brings him well within range of David Turnbull's guns. Guns, which I hasten to add, will be drastically augmented by the sustained efforts of CPC HQ in this marginal 416 riding.
Given that there seems to be no bottom to the Liberal numbers in Ontario, it seems premature to reserve a chair in Godfrey's name in Ottawa.
Call it a race determined by less than 2 percentage points. Unless party leadership does something to turn the tide, or someone can demonstrate to my satisfaction that Godfrey's ground attack is REALLY that much more potent than Turnbull's, I think David wins the split decision.
29/05/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
The feeling here is Mr.Godfrey is too popular to lose this seat. Mr.Turnball will come within striking distance but this eat will remain Liberal.
29/05/04 Stevo
A drive along York Mills Road between Bayview and Yonge reveals a sign ratio of about 4:1 in favour of the Conservatives. However, this area of the riding almost always polls well for the Tories both provincially and federally, a pattern that should be augmented this time around. Still, Conservative support in the affluent York Mills area won't be enough to offset rock-solid Liberal support as you go further west and south in the riding. The site administrator's prediction is apt - Godfrey will win quite handsomely over David Turnbull.
27/05/04 MSH
Email: [hidden]
Should be an easy victory for Godfrey. Turnbull has name recognition, but observers at Queen's Park knew him as a very unimpressive member of the Harris government, and he got very appropriately beaten in the recent provincial election. The NDP will show some strength in the southeast corner of the constituency, though not enough to finish higher than third.
23/05/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
This is my riding and let me tell you Turnbull is coming out full swing. I called them to help out and they rejected me- they had TOO MANY volunteers! The campaign said that they ahve never been more organised and it showed: the campaign practically coloured the upper part of the riding completely blue with signs. Godfrey must be slow out of the gates, since I have only seen 1-2 signs by him.
17/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
Email: [hidden]
The Conservative support in this riding is not high enough to overcome this popular incumbent in Godfrey. However a well known former MPP in Turnbull should boost Conservative support very close to that of the Liberals. I'm not predicting a Conservative win, but this will be close. This is one of the most conservative ridings in Toronto, but that's like saying Calgary Centre is the most liberal riding in Calgary!
13/05/04 Price
Email: [hidden]
I have never understood David Turnbull's appeal to some benighted people - he's a terrible man who was known to refer to MPPs serving in the Rae government as "grease-monkeys." By contrast John Godfrey seems like a pretty decent guy. Maybe it's as much hope as analysis on my part, but I have to think that short of a Tory landslide (not going to happen) Turnbull, who was retired by the people provincially, will remain a political pensioner. If the election depletes Paul Martin's cabinet-worthy ranks without throwing him out of office, as it very well might, then I think Godfrey is an odds on favorite to make cabinet after the election.
10/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
In what passes for the most winnable Tory riding in Toronto, David Turnbull's a kind of "token star candidate"; y'know, solid provincial party standard-bearer swept out by the McGuinty wave, etc--it's all so logical as a "next step" for him, and for the United Right desperately in search for 416 "electability". And what Turnbull earned in defeat, about 40% (roughly the same as the United Right these past 3 federal elections), should be looked at as par. One trouble: John Godfrey's popularity excels that of his party. Another trouble, esp. if the CPC remains mired in the "New Alliance" ooze: this is one of those affluent Yonge corridor seats where in 2000, in spite of being declared electorally DOA, the token, hapless PC candidate still managed a solid second over a supposedly much better-organized Alliancer. Luckily, Turnbull has more of the PC than the Alliance about him...but will that help? (Oh, and any NDP support there is will be almost entirely token Layton coattails, so I wouldn't paint it much worry.)
13/04/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
David Turnbull will win even though Godfrey is a pretty good member. Tories have a history here and they'll also have the national trend. Don't assume that the addition of Thorncliffe and Flemingdon Parks will make much difference -- the turnout there is lousy.
04/04/04 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
This isobviously a riding that the Conservatives will terget in teh election...one of perhaps 3 or so that they might win in Toronto if they can get some Ontario traction. The riding has changed in the days that Gillies/Bosley held the riding from 1972-1993. While the marginal Eglinton/Yonge apartments are gone, they have been replaced by the addition of Flemington Park to the liberal stronghold in Thorncliffe Park. In 1997 and 2000 as well as the 2003 provincial, these apartments provided the overwealming majorites needed to overcome the natural Conservative inclinations in the rest of the riding, which is alteratively upper-middle (Leaside/Don Mills) to incredibly upper class enclaves like Lawrence Park, the Bridle Path and York Mills. The Conservatives have a lock on the really wealthy enclaves, but need to carry all or most of the remaining residental, single family home areas to win...alternatively, the riding may fall on the basis of varying turnouts between areas voting Liberal and strongly Tory. The NDP will have little to no organization and may get a few votes in some of the apartments, but won't have an organization to reap more than a windfall.
26/03/04 Sen. McCheese
Email: [hidden]
Don Valley West voters have split their federal/provincial representation between the Libs and Tories for at least the past decade. Given the provincial liberal win (or, if you will, "Liberal Wynne") last fall, they'll choose to send a Tory to Ottawa.
Plus, Jack Layton has all sorts of bright and eager new Toronto kids jumping on his bandwagon. Enough of them will make the short trip up from Queen St. to work on his behalf in Flemingdon and Thorncliffe to cut away a substantial chunk of votes from the Libs. Turnbull will win with under 45% of the vote.
24/03/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
He didn't play an especially offensive role in the Harris/Eves governments, but I can't see David Turnbull having enough personal popularity to shift the colours of DV West. His loss in '03 was substantial, and will probably be equalled this time around.
24/03/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
This will definitely be a close race, however, Turnbull is likely in for a second defeat in the polls. People are much too afraid of splitting the vote, by voting NDP in this riding. This gives the Liberals a natural advantage.
20/03/04 first and last initial
Email: [hidden]
Turnbull is notorious here for his dirty tricks (in the last provincial election literature was dropped off, in neighborhoods with huge immigrant populations, suggesting people would be deported if they tried to vote without absolutely complete citizenship) and although he is popular in the affluent neighborhood of Leaside, everywhere else is die-hard liberal. Add on top John Godfrey's personal popularity this seat is the Liberal's to lose.
20/03/04 Rich
Email: [hidden]
Conservative win in a squeaker. David Turnbull has high name recognition and a good reputation in the riding. Coupled with the tarnished Liberal brand it adds up to an urban win for the Tories.
19/03/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
I truly beleive that Turnbull will be able to take this riding, then again, I thought Turnbull would take this riding Provincialy back in October. Nonetheless, this will be a very heated and close contest, and I think electionprediction jumped the ball by calling it Liberal so soon. Turnbull has a very recongisable name and can now go on the offensive rather than the defensive in this election. As well, he has the experience, and voters feel comfortable voting for him. This will especially go Conservative if the northern part of this riding, which is one of the richest and most Conservative sections in the country, out-vote the Flemmingston area. This will be a tight one, folks.
17/03/04 Hack
Email: [hidden]
The Conservatives have nominated former Ontario minister David Turnbull, who represented this riding provincially until last year. This was a solidly Tory riding under Mulroney and Turnbull should put up a spirited contest. Still, Godfrey is more popular than the Liberal party after Adscam, is routinely called Toronto's best MP by the Toronto Star, and is in charge of a file that people in the riding actually care about. Plus the Liberals have a lock on Thorncliffe and Flemingdon. Unless there is a huge Tory tide in Ontario, this should be a Liberal hold.
17/03/04 The Masked Tory
This is a conservative riding. David Turnbull should be able to squeak out this one, as long as the Libs keep dropping in the polls.

Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici
Return to/retournez à - Provincial Index/Actualité provinciale
Return to/retournez à - 2004 Federal Election Prediction/Prévision de élection générale 2004

© 1999-2004 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com - Email Webmaster