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Etobicoke Centre

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:14 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
8:56 PM 18/03/2004

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Green Party/Parti Vert:
Margo Pearson
Lida Preyma
John Richmond
France Tremblay
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Borys Wrzesnewskyj

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Etobicoke Centre (94.3%)
Etobicoke North (5.7%)
Roy Cullen

2000 Result/Résultats:
27,647 57.09%
10,772 22.24%
7,511 15.51%
2,292 4.73%
206 0.43%

Etobicoke Centre
(217/217 polls, 74480/74480 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Etobicoke North
(11/171 polls, 4537/64791 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 J.
Email: [hidden]
Unless the tides against the liberals strengthen significantly in the next week, there is no way they can lose this seat. Borys is a great candidate and now holds endorsements from both Miller(who is an overwhelmingly popular mayor) as well as the endorsement of the two former riding association presidents of the alliance and the progressive conservatives. Furthermore, Lida Preyma has recently LOST the endorsement of her own riding association president under accusations of a corrupt campaign. Borys has also gotten extensive media coverage with City TV, CTV, CFRB and most recently the drop of the Conservative President's endorsement on the CBC national news. So, like I said, based on extensive current Liberal support, and the many Conservatives that will now be reconsidering their support of Preyma, the liberals should easily take Etobicoke-Centre.
Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
This is the riding that had the unite the right orgy with many Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative candidates to pick from and the best they can do is nominate a teen queen Lida Preyma who cares only for her homeland and no other issue to the point of gaffedom. Allan Rock sucked the big one but surely if Cam Jackson can keep along in Burlington provincially, these guys could have run the best Speaker of the Legislature in Ontario history in Chris Stockwell, if they would have only used the brains. Poor Borys Wrzesnewskyj and the Grits will come in a close second and how will Borys be able to go home, beat by a girl in Etobicoke Centre, tsk, tsk.
22/06/04 C Warda
Email: [hidden]
This is not an opinion, just a query. The former Association Presidents for the PC & CA have written a letter endorsing the Liberal Candidate. I quote: "Certain indcidents at the local riding level have caused us to question our vote for the local Conservative candidate and made us consider whether it is better to support a party or better to support the best local candidate." What do these incidents refer to?
I am trying to make contact with members of the local Conservative association. I have spoken to someone who is backing L. Preyma, to better understand what transpired during the nomination process. I have been informed that both former riding association president's were backing the other candidate and did not choose to support L. Preyma upon her win. I would also like to hear from someone on the other side of the equation.
What happened during the past year to change Stephen Thiele's decision to support L. Preyma and encourage John Hastings to run for the Conservatives?
21/06/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
In Rock's very best year he won by 9,000. That dipped to 6,000 plus in the last running of the reptiles. Anyone who thinks that Boris is not going to lose 3,500 to Premya in this naturally Blue riding with the trend against him hasn't thought this out well enough. While it may be close, ponder this:
1) Boris is not Rock.
2) The national trend is important here.
3) Rock's numbers only look impressive until you see how close the CA-PC split has been.
4) Any suggestion that Premya is unpalatable locally is wishful thinking on the Liberals part.
18/06/04 416 Insider
Email: [hidden]
If there are a few Toronto ridings that will go Tory on the 28th, this is one of them. It is generally considered Tory-liked in Toronto because of the success of conservative City Councillors like Gloria Lindsay Luby and Doug Holyday.

The Liberal candidate, Wrzesnewskyj, orginally tried to sneak in Parkdale High-Park by sacking incumbent Sam Bulte (a Chretien loyalist). When Rock resigned, Wrzesnewskyj was asked to put down his arms and take Rock's seat. The nomination was bitter as Wrzesnewskyj took on Jaime Maloney (a long-time Etobicoke Liberal) and had to defend himself as a "parachute" candidate.
But the Tory nomination bitterness is much more public. Former PC Party President Stephen Thiele was ousted by Preyma loyalists and those who wanted to punish him for trying to take on popular City Councillor Gloria Lindsay Luby in the last municipal election (Luby creamed him by over 6500 votes). Thiele took on Preyma by endorsing another candidate. After Preyma won, Thiele ripped up his membership card and joined the Liberals.
It's interesting that David Miller has publicly endorsed Borys, while John Tory is campaiging for Lida. Tory beat Miller in this riding, looks like that may happen again.
17/06/04 Jeff
Email: [hidden]
just got back from the all candidate debate. Lida was very competent, knew her party's stance on big issues, wasn't afraid of the tough questions. Boris got many facts wrong.. he called it G7 instead of G8. he also falsely said that the USA had signed Kyoto.. Lida justified the Conservative budget plan while Borys did nothing to talk about the Liberals. The NDP guy was good too, but obviously he has no chance of winning the seat.
12/06/04 Old Political Hack
Email: [hidden]
Lida Preyma has destroyed the local conservative association and has no chance of winning this seat. She has no support, even among party people. She lacks the resources, any sort of political talent, and any kind of knowledge of the issues that face our community and our country. I'm not a fan of the Liberals (particularly post-adscam) but they can't NOT win this seat.
02/06/04 W Lambert
Email: [hidden]
Lida Preyma has a well organized campaign office and is off to a good early start. She is clearly way ahead in terms of lawn signs at this point. I travelled through a half dozen polls on sunday pounding signs and there was very little evidence of any of the other candidates at that time. Preyma is an unusual conservative candidate because she is a relatively young woman, but she is quite intelligent and engaging. She will do very well at the door to door campaigning. Her strong social conscience and well developed sense of ethics will appeal to many who would otherwise be unlikely to vote for a Conservative. At this early stage I'd have to say Lida wins this one by a good margin, pulling away.
02/06/04 Tory
Email: [hidden]
Lida Preyma through hard work won the nomination fair and square. A few sore losers from the executive decided to pick up their ball and leave. Their past efforts reflects their winning abilities. They now have a chance to get behind a winner and they still don't get it. This riding executive is indeed the biggest embarrassment in the country. After this election an audit should be conducted of their actions and they should be dragged into court.
19/05/04 Grant
Email: grantramcgill@yahoo.ca
A couple of points. First, to Mr. Richmond. I meant no disrespect when I mentioned your standing in the Etobicoke-Lakeshore NDP riding association, nor to your colleague, Margaret Anne McHugh, who ran provincially last year.
And I wasn't intending to smear you by implying you were a member of the NDP Socialist Caucus. I actually recall reading the same letter you referred to some time ago about the NPI. I was making that reference regarding Bonte Minnema, the provincial NDP candidate in EC in 1999 who, if memory serves me correctly, proudly claimed membership in that caucus.
I was merely trying to get across the point that a scenario that's often been repeated on this site, that of a resurgent NDP taking votes away from the Liberals and allowing the Tories to come up the middle, I don't think will occur here. Maybe in places like Cambridge or London-Fanshawe (places where the NDP has actually won seats or placed very well either federally or provincially) but not EC. I certainly didn't want to question your capabilities or determination, but you do have quite the task to make the soil fertile for red roses around here. Nonetheless, good luck in the campaign.
Dean, I concur that Michael Wilson certainly isn't a lightweight, and will bring badly needed gravitas to the Tory campaign, but nor do I think David Miller is plutonium in these parts, NDP tag or no.
If I remember correctly, Miller was picking up about 30-35% of the vote versus John Tory's 50-55% in Doug Holyday's part of EC (my apologies if the stats are off) and Barbara Hall did a little better in this area during the 1st Megacity election. I think that so long as Miller can still bask in the anti-Lastman factor and since he hasn't buggered up significantly since November, his name carries a bit of respect/affinity people like Borys can draw on. Yeah, John Tory giving him the nod would be a bigger quarry, but Miller ain't no schmuck.
But it belabours the earlier point I was making about doing all the little things to win that first seat. For example, I recently say Borys on Ukrainian television opening his campaign HQ, getting all important face time. Among the people shown was a representative of the Somali religious community blessing the opening of his office. Similar representatives were shown in his campaign literature, indicating that trying to court support in that community in the northern part of the riding.
A rising Conservative tide in Ontario would certainly put this in play again, but what shape will the HMCS EC-Tory be in when the tide rolls back in? I still have to go with my original pick (No offense John, but when I hear stories of NDP candidates being chased off lawns while canvassing in this neck of the woods...eeesh...;D)
17/05/04 John Richmond
Email: [hidden]
Just had to add my two bits here - given the veiled, nameless reference to me. I am the NDP candidate for Centre and sorry to say but I'm not a member of the NDP Socialist Caucus - perhaps it is being confused with NPI, which, along with people like Jack Layton, I did support. In fact, if you Google my name with the S.C. you will find a letter I wrote to NOW attacking the S.C. for its old school ideas. I am a member of the Lakehsore Executive (in fact, I'm the President!) but I live right on the border of Centre and Lakeshore and consider central Etobicoke to be my neighbourhood. I'm running a serious campaign (to the best of my ability given job and family. Who will win? I don't know but this won't be the usual one or two way race!
17/05/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Grant...Not a bad analysis generally, but keep in mind that Miller, running as mayor, lost etobicoke centre pretty badly...not the greatest person from whom to get an endorsement.
Lila, on the other hand, got Michael Wilson's support...a very well respected MP who held the seat from 1979-1993...and while he always won with solid majorities, I'll bet his personal popularity in the riding was quite a bit higher...
But so long as reliable polls have the Liberals leading in Ontario by 20%or more, they will win a large majority of the ridings...confining the Conservatives to a fringe of rural ridings of 10-15 seats or so...If the Conservatives close to say 10% behind...then they may break into Toronto and make Etobicoke Centre a real possibility.
13/05/04 Grant
Email: grantramcgill@yahoo.ca
OK, let me try this again.
We have two fresh new candidates in this incumbent free riding. Only two parties have really had a good shot at winning the riding since the 50s (when it included a big chunk of Etobicoke North), the Grits & Tories. So I'd like to break it up by those who vote for a party vs. those who look at the candidate (speculation, yes, but isn't that what we're here for?..;D)
The latest Ipsos-Reid poll puts the Grits at 46% and the Tories at 26% in Ontario. So it gives an idea which party actually has some coattails. It doesn't exactly mimic regular voting patterns in EC (with the Ontario PC candidate gaining nearly 40% of the vote in their electoral meltdown of 2003), but a 20 point lead for the Liberals will no doubt give Borys a boost.
Now, the candidates. Borys has done what any good unknown candidate should do...plaster his face in the media any way he can...ring up an endorsement from a Toronto mayor with an 82% approval rating (among others). It bodes very well.
The Tory candidate? She's under-experienced, and while people like Perrin Beatty and Lorne Nystrom can show you can become an MP and be under 30, it doesn't happen often. There are currently two in the HoC right now, and both represent recent strongholds for their particular party, Sebastian Gagnon (BQ) in Lac-Saint-Jean-Saguenay and James Moore (CPC) in Port Moody-Coquitlam [Lou Sekora abberation aside]. So will one of the ridings with the largest proportion of seniors in Ontario (maybe in Canada, I don't know) vote for a 29 year old? If they want a Conservative bad enough in EC, I believe they would. If they look at Lida v. Borys, well, would you want an MP more than 30 years your junior? I wouldn't give that good odds at all. Possible but not probable
And all this hullaballo about the EC Tory association...can a candidate succeed in a riding where, albeit she has a strong base, the association executive is in turmoil (or gives the appearnce therein). It would take an inordinately skilled candidate to overcome that.
Finally, I don't anticpate the NDP to make huge strides here. They peaked at nearly 11% in 1980 and have been going downhill ever since. They will bleed some support away, but I'd be shocked if EC voted for, yet another, parachute candidate from the Etobicoke Lakeshore NDP riding executive or a member of the NDP Socialist caucus...this factor shouldn't be relied on by the Tories.
If Harper can make the good citizens of Toronto believe he's dismantling his firewalls etc. and that Martin is a corrupt SOB (and it can spread to Martinites like Borys), there's a shot, but EC seems more like a wasted opportunity. Liberal hold.
12/05/04 Moderate Conservative
Vitcor A must be a supporter of the CON Canadidate. Let me correct his assertions. Etobicoke Centre was the riding where the PC's and the CA's were front and centre on co-operation for the entire country since Aug, 2001. (check the internet for proof).
There was never any idea that former Alliance Candidate was the expected winner. It was the exact opposite. The turmoil within the association is due to the claims of racism against board members, claims of forged signatures, collusion from the Interim Council in the nomination process, and manipulating the membership lists to favour one candidate over the other, and finally two Nomination Committee members that signed oaths of impartiallity and then clearly worked for the Lida campaign.
An in-experienced 29 year old overly ambitious canadidate is the problem in EC. A person that has continuously displayed personal ambition over the long term good of the association is not the type of person one needs in Ottawa. Ottawa already has enough of this type of politician... they are called Liberals.
04/05/04 Victor A.
Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
On paper, this is the riding that would the the most Tory friendly in the whole city of Toronto. All the other ones are a lost case, especially the riding just south from this one with the overhyped PC delegate. I think however that it's more interesting to comment on this one and controversy over Lida Preyma's comination. Lida is from the PC party side and there was some right winger from the Alliance side that was apparently favored to win the nomination, according to the estimates they had and hopefully he lost ( he was supprized to be beaten by a much younger candidate). This riding is a classic exemple of how the PC Party and the Alliance party can't work together. That is why some people claim that Lida is not being supported by the PC, this is in fact not the case, there is just simply a lot of sour grapes from the failed Alliance/Reform side candidate. Still, having said that Borys Wrz. has to be a favorte, he is more known within the Ukrainian community than Lida, let alone all of the riding, but I think LIda would certainly be a fresher choice :)
28/04/04 Darlene
Email: northetobicoke@hotmail.com
To all the "Board" members of the Etobicoke Riding Association. If you do not support the candidate, then resign from the board and let others sit on the board. Ms. Lida Preyma has an excellent support base and yes she is out door knocking every day. How can you say you are a "Conservative" when you don't support the excellent candidate that you have.
24/04/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Judging by the candidates' names, Etobicoke Centre has definitely evolved from its days as wall o'the WASP central, into something more like an affluent westward evolution of Slavophile Parkdale-High Park. And in this illustrious cabinet-minister breeding ground, there's a disarmingly hip 40ish "Gerard Kennedy" quality to triple-kimmel'd Future Bakery king Borys Whatzizface, while Preyma's youth also marks a step beyond the staid. Theoretically, EC ought to fall in line with a Toronto Liberal sweep--you know, NDP'll never get elected in this seat, and Harper's Firewall Conservatives haven't got a chance in the 416, etc. But in the wake of the sponsorship scandal, the latter point's no longer so clear. And on top of Allan Rock's retirement, also bear in mind that not-bad-considering 2003 provincial PC result, or the fact that Stephen Harper's alma mater, Richview Collegiate, is located here. (I went there, too. Trust me; if Harper bugs you, I understand.)
19/04/04 Concerned Conservative
Email: [hidden]
Etobicoke Centre Conservatives are in disarray. Riding President has resigned recently. Over half of the Board of Directors have indicated they do not support the nominee. As the story surrounding the issues in this association gets out to more members of the riding, support dwindles. Many of the best known conservative workers in this riding have signed on to candidates in other ridings. Some have already moved over to the Liberals in the riding to insure a liberal win. The conservative candidate is not even campaigning.
Meanwhile the Liberal Candidate has an office and is out campaigning everday. He has been in the Toronto Star 4 times already. He will win.
19/04/04 Grant
Email: grantramcgill@yahoo.ca
Of all the ridings in the city of Toronto, this one could have represented the best chance for a Tory gain. All they needed was a candidate with a little gravitas, and the seat could've been theirs. After all, even with a clunker like Rose Andrachuk and a PC meltdown in the last provincial election, they still managed nearly 40% of the vote. Save for David Young in Willowdale, that was the highest in the city.
So what happens? A 25 year old candidate gets the nod. I'm not saying she's the village idiot or anything like that, but given her CV, this is the Conservative candidate you'd likely see in Trinity-Spadina more than in a winnable seat like EC. She's even a member of an organisation called "Equal Voice". What does Equal Voice do? Here's a blurb from their website:
"We want women to get their fair share of nominations in winnable ridings and we’re seeking to level the political playing field by lowering the financial requirements that now work to exclude women and others who don't have Bay Street's backing.
We'll speak out when capable women who do get elected are left ignored on the back benches or unduly hazed by the male club."
Bay Street backing? All male club? She could almost be at home in the NDP.
However, she does have two things in her favour despite this. EC is a two horse race. The Left (NDP/Green/Marxist-Lennist etc.) got a little over 10% in the last provincial election and 5% in 2000. Jack Layton or no, don't expect any proletarian revolutions here.
The second is the Liberal erosion of support. Since the riding either goes Red or Blue, there's a great chance that she'll pick up the voters who are angry at the Liberals. As well, with the Liberals having a rookie as their candidate, it isn't always the greatest thing to have when your party is going for a fourth mandate.
Right now, I'd call this a Liberal leaner, but still a toss-up.
13/04/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
Is Borys as strong as Rock? Hardly. Lida is a Magna candidate, well funded smart and focussed. The combined PC-Alliance vote last time was 38% and surely will be more this time due to the Tory trend. Lida will be one of a very few CPC women members.
30/03/04 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
The riding of Etobicoke Centre was held by Mike Wilson from his first election in 1979, then 1980, 1984 and 1988...four good victories and two virtual landslides...Mike Wilson was a very respected MP, but the riding had a very strong Tory base as well. The riding is upper/upper-middle class and likes to have candidates who are cabinet prospects. if the Tories won three seats in Toronto, this would be one of them...Suggesting a Tory win at this stage is actually a stretch on my ordinarily disciplined approach to predictions...but I'll reserve the right to reconsider the campaign in my old home riding as it progresses.
28/03/04 AWL
Etobicoke Centre voters traditionally go with the Party that is leading in the polls. They are establishment voters rather than protest voters and feel comfort in having an MP in government and in Cabinet. The NDP has always been a non-factor in this riding so the Liberal’s need not worry about potential left-leaning Liberal’s voting New Democrat. The Conservatives could have made this an exciting race if they had nominated well-known candidate. Instead they nominated Lida Preyma, a young and virtually unknown candidate with little or no presence in the riding. If the polls are in favour for the Liberals they will win this seat easily.
28/03/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
If any Toronto riding goes Tory Blue this is the one. Allan Rock has moved on and the Liberal candidate is not well known. I would say that the Liberals don't seem to be putting much energy in winning this riding.
24/03/04 Gerry
Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
Conservatives have no chance anywhere in Toronto and, apart from Willowdale, this is the least likely riding in the city to vote NDP. Next!
24/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Take a look at the history of this riding and you will find that from the 1970's to the 1993 election, this riding was solidly blue. History is on side. It's been stated that being an "allstar" candidate, like Alan Rock was, can gain you 5% of the vote. Assuming a 5% swing from Liberal to a United Conservative party, only 10 points would have seperated the two parties. The fact that there is no Liberal Inbumbent here, coupled with the momentum felt by the Conservatives will all come togethor on election night to hand the win here to the Conservative Party of Canada.
Editor's Note: "from the 1970's to the 1993 election, this riding was solidly blue" is actually incorrect. It would be more correct to say Etobicoke Centre is a bellweather riding that always voted for a cabinet minister. Cases to point: Alastair Gillespie (70s) under Trudeau, Michael Wilson (80s) under Mulroney, Allan Rock (90s) under Chrétien. Coinsidentally, all three served as Minister of Industry during part of their ministerial career.
17/03/04 The Masked Tory
One of the most conservative ridings in the country. Municipally, and provincially (Cansfield still holds a valid Ontario PC membership, is a Liberal by opportunity), and until Allan Rock happened along, federally.
Strong Candidate for the CPC means another for the Blue column!

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