Projet D'Élection Prévision
www.electionprediction.com
Kitchener Centre
Kitchener-Centre
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale
|
Update/Mise à jour: 7:02 PM 6/25/2004 
Prediction Changed La prévision a changé 8:06 PM 23/03/2004 |
Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription
Candidates/candidats:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
| Independent: Mark Corbiere | |||||||
 |
Conservatives/Conservateurs: Thomas Ichim | ||||||
|
Liberal Party/Parti libéral: Karen Redman | ||||||
 |
Green Party/Parti Vert: Karol Vesely | ||||||
 |
N.D.P./N.P.D.: Richard Walsh-Bowers | ||||||
|
|||||||
Incumbents/Les députés: | |||||||
|
Kitchener Centre (90.6%) Karen Redman | ||||||
|
Kitchener-Waterloo (9.4%) Hon. Andrew Telegdi | ||||||
2000 Result/Résultats:
| Redistributed | ||
 |
22,202 | 52.78% |
 |
10,879 | 25.86% |
 |
5,787 | 13.76% |
 |
2,928 | 6.96% |
| 266 | 0.63% | |
Kitchener Centre (180/210 polls, 69144/80360 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 20542 | |
| 10083 | |
| 2601 | |
| 5466 | |
| 136 | ||
Kitchener-Waterloo (31/264 polls, 7174/91371 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 1660 | |
| 796 | |
| 327 | |
| 321 | |
| 130 | ||
 |
| Sponsoring this space? See sponsorship details |
|
24/06/04 | Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca | |
| In Kitchener Centre, Tory Thomas Ichim, a very weak Tory indeed, will beat out Karen Redman the Chretien Liberal because eveybody remembers his brother Julian as the void who threw chocolate milk on Stockwell Day and making sure Stock's Ontario debut was a splash and that Day indeed got milk. The kid is burning up and the sooner the election is over, the better for this gaffe-a-minute Tory who only matches Patrick Brown for inane commentary. The NDP candidate has the same socially liberal aka urban progressive views and will split that left vote, leaving this Thomas character to his own devices unless anyone's left in the far-right-wing Tory Youth club at Conestoga to save their campaigns by making Ichim be more extreme. | |||
|
22/06/04 | seanh Email: [hidden] | |
| To date Richard Walsh-Bowers has given a very strong performance and the NDP fortunes in the KW area continues to improve. Karen Redman is up to par however she is now burdened by an unpopular Liberal Party. Thomas Ichim is not even supported by his own party let alone the general public. The Green candidate is new to the politics and new to the Greens - having been a member for only two months. It will be a contest between the NDP and the Liberals with the NDP scoring an upset. | |||
|
20/06/04 | Full Name Email: james@bowjamesbow.net | |
| Thomas Ichim had a poor performance at the all candidates meeting, with a gaffe comment on women's rights making it into the local paper with some prominence. Between this and a campaign that has been starved for funds, the Conservatives now have little chance in this riding. The race is between incumbent Redman and NDPer Walsh-Bowers. Walsh-Bowers is a perennial NDP candidate. He seems to have an upsurge of support this time around, but will it be enough to catch Redman? My hunch is no, but I'm open to being proved wrong. | |||
|
15/06/04 | David C Email: [hidden] | |
| Liberal hold. Not enough right wing voters here but the New Democrats vote could make things close. An urban core riding might garner some "Jack" votes. Incumbency may be enough ....My prediction: Lib 39 CPC 29 NDP 24 Greens 5 | |||
| 09/06/04 | A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com | ||
| A class-of-97er, Karen Redman is one of the true Ontario Liberal sleepers, and given the inner-core demos I can see why she's deemed safe; on the other hand, there's the federal PC record with John Reimer, and even a goner PC MPP like Wayne Wettlaufer lost in 2003 by a smaller margin than anybody had any right to expect. It's interesting that while union towns like Brantford and Cambridge have had the stronger erstwhile NDP histories, the yuppier Layton mood's more congenial to cultural-classy Kitchener Centre or Guelph or the London ridings (barring a Green upsurge, that is). Walsh-Bowers outpolled NDP expectations in K-W next door in 2000; and mind the fact that provincially, Ted Martin earned back his KC deposit in 2003. If the NDP's eyeing a record number of seats and treating Southern Ontario as key, surely this is one of the top 5 or so prospects btw/Windsor and Hamilton--or else they're softening things up for a Conservative pickup where one least wants it... | |||
|
02/06/04 | DTC Email: [hidden] | |
| Karen Redman is a solid MP, quietly going about her business and doing very well. She ought to win handily here, which should bode well for the Liberals in this bell-weather riding...despite the polls. Walsh-Bowers is a strong candidate, with some positive name recognition, but I doubt that he or his party will gain much on the well liked Redman. Ichim is young and intelligent, but he has a family issue that might not help him much: remember Stockwell Day covered with chocolate milk? The person who threw the chocolate milk was Julian Ichim, Thomas Ichim's younger brother. | |||
|
01/06/04 | John Scott Email: [hidden] | |
| Although I am a conservative in the riding next door. I believe this seat will stay Liberal. Redman has worked hard and attends local events all the time not just when an election is looming. She has a been a strong advocate for the area. It's too bad she's not been put in cabinet because it may have saved some of the other local Liberal candidates from losing their seats. The Liberals are in steep decline but Redman will hold her seat because of the work she's done for the community. | |||
|
25/05/04 | S Belmont Email: ableb@kitchener.com | |
| From what I have heard the Conservatives aren't backing Ichim with any cash, so that puts them out of the race. As for the 'nut-job' worst professor comment, WalshBowers won a best teacher award. It will be tough to win, but if a swing happens toward the NDP, WalshBowers will scrape in. | |||
|
19/05/04 | Full Name Email: [hidden] | |
| I am not intending to vote Liberal in this election, but I still expect Kitchener Centre to go Liberal. Karen Redman isn't what you would call a high-profile candidate, but she has good and longstanding connections in the community and, of the competitors, only the NDP candidate is somebody I've actually heard of. It has been said before that one could run a dead dog for parliament here in Kitchener, and it would win if it had "Liberal" written on its collar. I don't see that changing with this election. | |||
|
28/04/04 | PFR Email: [hidden] | |
| I am not sure the liberals should be so comfortable about calling this a safe seat. If anything this is a swing riding and a good indext on how the rest of the province or country votes for that matter. Provincially it voted for the neo-conservative Wayne Wettlauffer Tory in 1995 and 1999 just as the Progressive Conservatives won back to back majories. That all changed last year as the Liberals were sweept into power taking this riding. Federally when they have also had tendency to vote represent the mood of the country. In 1979, they elected Tory MP John Reimer. He would lose by a hair in 1980 as the Liberals returned to power. He would however be victorious in 1984 and 1988 and the Progressive Conservatives won back to back majorities. Since 1993 however it has been Liberal. I could go on but I think I made my point. With a united right and a Liberal party that will be bruised and battered from the sponsorship scandal this is anything but a safe seat for the Liberals. | |||
|
19/04/04 | Bear and Ape Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com | |
| The only safe Liberal seat in the Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge area. Karen Redman won handidly in 2000 and will do so again. She is well liked in this urban riding (unlike Kitchener-Conestoga which is largely rural and will be more conservative) and is not viewed as a nut-case (as is the Liberal incumbant in Kitchener-Waterloo). Safe Liberal keep. | |||
|
15/04/04 | Paul Email: paulstickney@hotmail.com | |
| A very strong Liberal MP for the riding of Kitchener Centre. Although Redman supported the 'leader' and did not jump on the Martin bandwagon during the Liberal Leadership race her seat is quite safe. The NDP are running a nut-job named Richard Walsh Bowers...quite possibly one of the worst Professor's at WLU. He is overly dramtic and people don't buy his act. The Conservatives do not have a strong candidate. It was unfortunte that Wayne Wettlaufer did not decide to run federally as he might have given Redman a run for her money. At any rate Redman deserves re-election and she will be apart of the Liberal minority government and after that if she chooses... | |||
|
07/04/04 | Sarge Email: cwakes2000@yahoo.ca | |
| The NDP win here? That is wishful thinking. In fact, it is so beyond the realm of reality that it is a source of mirth. Karen beat the NDP here by 20,000 votes in 2000. Give me a break. She is a hard working, well liked MP. In fact, I have worked in politics for 8 years and have never heard a bad thing said about her. Never. She will win again and I say thank goodness, we need her in Ottawa. Although the Tories will increase their vote here, Karen will win by 4000 votes. | |||
|
28/03/04 | J Horn Email: [hidden] | |
| This is an easy Liberal win. The Liberals would have to be gutted in Ontario for this riding to fall. Karen Redman is well liked in the community and should win by a comfortable margin of a couple thousand with the rest of the KW area. | |||
|
25/03/04 | V.D. Email: bench_breaker@hotmail.com | |
| I can't see someone can call this for the NDP, looking at the 2000 results. Granted the NDP will finish stronger this time, but win? Maybe someone (below) can explain how | |||
|
20/03/04 | David Email: [hidden] | |
| The NDP made a lot of gains here provincially, and under Jack Layton they will continue to gain popularity. Karen Redman is a good Liberal MP, but the Liberals are in serious trouble. For the NDP, Richard Walsh-Bowers is a community activist and a fantastic public speaker with great passion and strong values. If he wins this seat it will look something like: NDP 40ish% Conservatives 30ish% Liberals 30ish% | |||
|
20/03/04 | mini phreek Email: [hidden] | |
| Prof. Richard Walsh-Bowers ran for the NDP in the riding of waterloo-wellington in the provintial election last october and polled extremly well in the kitchaner area ( comming in second to the liberal in some polls). with the extreemly conservative base of wellington county no lounger in the picture this riding will be a race between Liberal Karen Redman and New Democrat Richard Walsh-Bowers. the NDP has a real chance here. | |||
Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici
Return to/retournez à - Provincial Index/Actualité provinciale
Return to/retournez à - 2004 Federal Election Prediction/Prévision de élection générale 2004
© 1999-2004 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com - Email Webmaster