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Kitchener-Waterloo
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale
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Update/Mise à jour: 8:39 PM 6/25/2004 
Prediction Changed La prévision a changé 1:34 PM 26/03/2004 |
Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription
Candidates/candidats:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
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Christian Héritage Chrétien: Frank Ellis | ||||||
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N.D.P./N.P.D.: Edwin Laryea | ||||||
| Independent: Ciprian Mihalcea | |||||||
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Green Party/Parti Vert: Pauline Richards | ||||||
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Conservatives/Conservateurs: Steve Strauss | ||||||
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Liberal Party/Parti libéral: Andrew Telegdi | ||||||
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Incumbents/Les députés: | |||||||
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Kitchener-Waterloo (100.0%) Hon. Andrew Telegdi | ||||||
2000 Result/Résultats:
| Redistributed | ||
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25,280 | 50.33% |
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11,462 | 22.82% |
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8,246 | 16.42% |
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4,039 | 8.04% |
| 1,204 | 2.40% | |
Kitchener-Waterloo (233/264 polls, 84197/91371 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 25280 | |
| 11462 | |
| 4039 | |
| 8246 | |
| 1204 | ||
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| Authorized by the Official Agent for Steve Strauss |
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24/06/04 | Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca | |
| Kitchener-Waterloo has a Red Tory tradition set by Elizabeth Witmer, add to this the Conservative tradition of supporting small business and technologies like that which is going on around the campus and then the irregular fact that Warren Kinsella the Chretienite bankrolls both opposition candidates to knock off Liberal Andrew Telegdi. Tory Steve Strauss is there to pick up the pieces until the Conservatives get corrupt and kicked out themselves. I also think Telegdi is fighting different election against the Alliance-Conservatives and its leader Stephen MacKay so it looks like Strauss is pretty safe. | |||
| 23/06/04 | Eric L. Email: civiltech@fencingmail.com | ||
| As a resident of Kitchener Waterloo, this is my humble opinion of the situation: It is a close race between the Liberals and Conservatives. It would not surprise me to see a new Conservative MP here. In fact, we should probably count on it, with the anger, and discomfort a lot of the public are voicing. However, a continued Liberal support and Telegdi's return is quite plausable as well. Never discount the incumbant! The NDP here has quite a speaker, and a very knowledgeable, and charasmatic candidate. While it would be a surprise to see him elected to office, there is no doubt he will take a good portion of the voting public. This may pull from Telegdi's left, and really put Strauss over the top. Our NDP candidate has a lot of comfort in front of people, and his honesty just makes him to good not to look at! (And no, I am not an NDP supporter!) With the NDP's new support here in KW, and the grumbling about an apathetic MP in Telegdi, it is most probable that Strauss will be the new MP. However, never count your chickens before they're hatched. I've seen Liberals in worse situations pull off a victory in there respective ridings! | |||
| 15/06/04 | A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com | ||
| "Unlikeability" does not necessarily equal "unelectability", and the so-called natural Toryism of K-W is in large part a Witmer illusion; in fact, as an "urban" seat, it's more akin to the moderation of Kitchener Centre than the ruralizing conservatism of Kitchener-Conestoga (though it also contains Kdub's most affluent suburbs, the ultimate source of Witmer's electoral strength). Within these notional boundaries, the NDP would actually have *won* provincially in 1990--but a victory for them now would be ridiculous. However, if the Liberals really plummeted now, mind that when Witmer was first elected in 1990, way back in a poor 3rd place with less than a quarter of the vote was...Andrew Telegdi... | |||
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15/06/04 | M. Grainger Email: [hidden] | |
| As eclectic as Andrew Telegdi can be at times, I just don't see this riding going Conservative. Though Elizabeth Witmer kept her seat at the provincial level, it was more because of her work in the community than a general Conservative sentiment. Steve Strauss is a newcomer to politics with no experience; Telegdi has been around since 1993, and his position as a Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister has not gone unnoticed. Telegdi, though many of his recent actions (including the outburst at the church leaders meeting) have hurt him, will not be turfed for a newcomer. He has consistently shown that he will put his constituents ahead of his party. I doubt that Strauss would do the same. Layrea will not take votes away from Telegdi. His first shot at politics was as to run for a spot on Waterloo City Council last year. (He lost.) He may have a lot of signs up, but that will translate into very little support. | |||
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14/06/04 | John Scott Email: [hidden] | |
| In talking with a friend who's working for the Liberals, they told me they have taken Telegedi off the streets, apparently he was not being well received at the door at all. | |||
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13/06/04 | Initial Email: [hidden] | |
| I think that this riding will be a very close one for the Liberals. The Conservatives may be ahead for the moment, however I think (perhaps obtimistically), that a large number of NDP and Green Party sympathizers will reluctantly support the Liberals out of fear of a Conservative government. Just think, A Conservative government means no infrastructure focus for cities, which means that the Waterloo-Cambridge light rail project won't have a chance, downtown Waterloo, if anything happens at all, will be an entirely corporate development, and the potential of increased vitality, involvement and self-determination for cities will be gone down the drain along with Paul Martin's plan to give cities a better deal. These consequences would be tough for NDP and Green sympathizers to swallow. | |||
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13/06/04 | dean Email: deansherratt@rogers.com | |
| I would be quite surprised if this riding wasn't Conservative by less than 10%...the Conservative candidate is quite good and the make-up of the riding...both its federal and provincial history, makes it a really good riding for the Conservatives to pick up, especially if pundits are suggesting more than half of Ontario's ridings will go Conservative. It also hasd a good number of social conservatives, so the Liberal attack ads will bomb here. | |||
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12/06/04 | Calculator Email: [hidden] | |
| Hey Dave, you must not too good with numbers. Pretty much every poll has the Liberals flirting with 30% in Ontario, and the Tories somewhere between 35-45%. That would leave the NDP with somewhere around 20% of the vote. How this translates into a NDP victory in Kitchener-Waterloo is beyond me, particularly given the candidate only pulled 17% in a municipal election! | |||
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12/06/04 | Nic Weber Email: [hidden] | |
| Early results show that Telegdi may be ousted but it is too close to call at this point. Strauss is a great candidate and the Conservatives will have him as well as a great campaign team to thank should he get elected. Laryea has no chance in the riding, with as few NDP voters as this poll. Laryea will be lucky to pick up 10-15%. This is definitely a two party poll and it could tip either way depending on how the campaign unfolds. | |||
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10/06/04 | Biased Blue Email: [hidden] | |
| I don't know which debate "D" was watching but it couldn't have been the same one I saw on Tuesday, unless a "fabulous job" consists of not answering any of the questions and repeatedly hate/fearmongering about the Conservative candidate, even in instances when the question had nothing to do with the Conservatives. But then, that would just be symptomatic of the entire Liberal campaign, sort of a "yeah, so maybe we're crooks - but we're better than these crazy people" pitch. Smart. | |||
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10/06/04 | You Must Be Joking Email: youmustbejoking@hotmail.com | |
| Hey "Dave" - fifty bucks says the Dipper comes in third. Profile schmofile. Edwin Laryea couldn't even get elected regionally, why would he have a chance in a federal election? Not to mention the NDP isn't anywhere near 30% in Ontario - try 20% give or take 2 or 3%. If Laryea takes 20% consider that a moral victory (thats about all the NDP ever gets anyway) This is a bellwether and it's going Tory blue, period. | |||
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09/06/04 | Dave Email: [hidden] | |
| Consider this: Liberals down 15% in Ontario approximately at 35% Conservatives at 30% in Ontario Edwin Laryea has a lot more signs in Waterloo than the other two candidates. Furthermore, Strauss has no profile. Laryea was a teacher for many years and has a strong record of community service. He also ran in the last municipal election in this area (he received 17% of the vote in Ward 4). While this is not strong NDP territory, there are two universities in the riding and a lot more diversity than people realize. This could be a very close race. | |||
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09/06/04 | Red All Over Email: [hidden] | |
| Good lord things just keep getting worse for Andrew Telegdi! First Kinsella funds his opponents. Now Liberal numbers in Ontario have tanked. I saw him on the local debate on TV last night and I don't think he answered a single question - just kept attacking the "Alliance-Conservatives" and some fellow names "Stephen McKay" for breaking a promise not to merge. He seemed to have stacked out the crowd fairly well, except that the questions they asked were so obviously biased they were hard to take seriously. Steve Strauss and the NDP candidate on the other hand, performed quite well. The final kick in the teeth for Telegdi: there's a couple of big ass Strauss signs on the properties right next to his campaign office, partially blocking the Liberal signage | |||
| 09/06/04 | DTC Email: todd.caslick@rci.rogers.com | ||
| I am amazed at the reasoning some of the Conservative predictors use to back up their thoughts. I used to believe that the number of lawn signs amounted to votes...but that was before I could vote myself. Although signage and advertising help, they don't mean the peson with the most signs wins. Many people will put a sign on their lawn and vote the other way on election day. The office activity may mean something, but not necessarily. Have you been to Mr. Telegdi's house? Is he doing a lot of work from there? The one thing mentioned that does make a difference is the door to door stuff. I think that meeting a candidate is the single most motivating factor when choosing a local MP. I don't mean people acting in their stead, I mean the real person going door to door. As for Kinsella, what did you expect? Telegdi organized the local Liberal's and they voted to have a review of Chretien's leadership of the party...the first vote of it's kind in the entire country. Kinsella was (and still is) Chretien's pit bull. You can thank Telegdi that Chretien isn't still running the country. I watched the All Candidates Debate yesterday and both Strauss and Telegdi did well. So did Laryea and Richards for that matter, but this is still a two way race. It seemed to me that there were more Liberals than Conservatives, but that's a tough call. I can say that the Conservatives were very vocal to the point of being rude. This riding is still too close to call in my opinion. | |||
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09/06/04 | D Email: [hidden] | |
| Re liberal supporters commenting on this site, paul stickney, son of Elizabeth Witmer's best friend isn't a conservative worker? I'd be surprised.Not to mention a lot of other comments. But nevermind. Andrew Telegdi's fabulous job during the Rogers T.V. debate (no shouting from him, cool and calm, even when the conservative supporters tried to drown him out!) shows that he's still the man to beat, no matter what the Liberal fortunes may be in the rest of the country. | |||
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04/06/04 | Gritting my teeth Email: [hidden] | |
| In case you don't read his blog, Chretienite Liberal whiz Warren Kinsella has made cash donations to both the Steve Strauss and Edwin Laryea campaigns, on the grounds that Andrew Telegdi deserves to be defeated. I don't know about you, but when a prominent Liberal publicly bankrolls opposition candidates to help knock off Liberal MPs, that's usually not a good sign for Liberal strength. Of course, Kinsella is right: Telegdi deserves to lose, and he's going to. Slot this baby in the win column for the Tories. | |||
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04/06/04 | Integrity Email: [hidden] | |
| Ms. Mitchell should clearly state that she is an active organizer for Mr. Telegdi in this riding, as well as being a regional councillor and long time liberal supporter. As for Mr. Strauss, he is the only candidate to knock on my door thus far in the election. In fact, I have seen neither of the other two candidates. It would appear that Mr. Telegdi is choosing to hide from the public because he is fully aware that he is not popular. Finally, did anyone catch Warren Kinsellas web blog? He's donated to the Steve Strauss campaign because he wants Telegdi out. | |||
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03/06/04 | John Scott Email: johnscott9999@mail.com | |
| I too have noticed the Conservative office seems to be open much earlier and much later then the Liberal office down the street. In talking with friends and colleagues none have had a Liberal canvasser at their door and about a third have had a Conservative canvasser at their door. It seems like the Conservatives are better organized. I think on election night this riding won't be decided until late in the evening. | |||
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02/06/04 | David Email: [hidden] | |
| If signs are any indication, Strauss seems to have a lot of support. Whenever I drive by the Conservative campaign office late at night there's always stuff going on; can't say the same for the Liberal office only a block away. | |||
| 02/06/04 | DTC Email: [hidden] | ||
| Unlike the partisans who have been commenting, I would say that this riding is too close to call, not a sure Conservative pick-up...yet. Telegdi seems to have a love him or hate him personality, but he helped Paul Martin become PM. Because of that he will have the full weight of the Liberal Party and Mr. Martin behind him. Conversely Strauss is a political neophite in a traditionally small "c" conservative riding. He may be bolstered by the fact that a large number of students won't be voting because of the summer vote. University students tend to skew centre-left. Laryea will not be a factor as the NDP doesn't have enough strength to make a dent in this riding. | |||
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28/05/04 | Email: | |
| Have you seen what's going on in this area "As I have entered it"?! To suggest that the Liberals can keep their 2000 numbers is just silly given the array of polls and incidents the last few weeks has brought. The NDP will get AT LEAST 15% in K-W this time, and don't think that that the Conservatives can't attract Liberal supporters from 2000; if not, why do we even have changes in governments in this country? As for the "extreme" CPC, why is this party currently at 35% in Ontario according to the latest TORONTO STAR poll? Does Steve look extreme to you in the ad above? Has he ever taken an extreme position? This impression doesn't hold, especially if your definition of extreme is being socially conservative like a great many people in this area. Even Telegdi waffled on gay marriage because of this in the fall! Sorry, but this time KW is sending a pilot flying sky-high to Ottawa! | |||
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27/05/04 | Jack Stevens Email: [hidden] | |
| It is time to mark this riding as a conservative pick up. The conservative signs are littered across the riding and the liberal signs are next to non-existent. Andrew Telegdi is history in this riding and he knows it. The fact that he was pictured on the Kitchener Waterloo record putting up signs to which he claims are at RIM, and one only has to drive by RIM to see this isn't the case is a perfect sign of a bad campaign. This seat could play a part in the next conservative minority government. | |||
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26/05/04 | Jane Mitchell Email: [hidden] | |
| Those who concentrate on the colourful side of Andrew Telegdi ignore the depth of his local roots and his work on behalf of local industry, regular citizens, immigrants and local social issues such as crime prevention. | |||
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25/05/04 | Keystone Email: [hidden] | |
| The previous post was right about one thing: Telegdi has a higher profile in the community than other Waterloo region MPs. The problem is that it's a highly negative profile of a loose-cannon old grump who is less than politic in his handling of controversial issues. Toss in those horrid pinkish signs and his seemingly always-closed campaign office, and you have bad news for Liberals in this riding. Conversely, I've counted at least a dozen Steve Strauss (Conservative) signs on my way to work, and while I know that signs don't always reflect support, it certainly suggest his campaign is on top of things. In a close race your campaign team counts, and if he's got the Liz Witmer machine behind him - which I've heard he does - Telegdi is done like dinner. Last but not least, Strauss is a pilot. I mean, c'mon, everybody loves pilots. | |||
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24/05/04 | As I have entered it Email: [hidden] | |
| Well as all of you can see, the results of the previous campaign had Telegdi at ~50% of the vote, with the CA and PC totalling 40% together. Vote splitting on the right didnt play into the last election for KW, and it won't again because while the CA and PC merged officially, in reality there are disaffected progressives on the right wing who arent going to vote for the too-far-right CPC. Those people will either stay at home or vote for Martin's centre-right Liberals. For those who make note of the fact that the area is Tory at the provincial level, that means nothing because if it did the Liberals would never have held the entire area at the federal level the way they do today. | |||
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19/05/04 | Full Name Email: [hidden] | |
| My impression of Telegdi is that he has a higher profile in the community than his surrounding Liberal counterparts, and in a riding that seems to favour characters above party affiliation (witness Witmer's survival from the McGuinty sweep), I expect Telegdi to keep this riding in a close race. | |||
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28/04/04 | PFR Email: [hidden] | |
| Andrew Telegdi must have offended and upset just about everyone in his riding since he was first elected in 1993. That will come back to backfire on him. The Tories are united and have a strong candiate in Steven Strauss. All that adds up to a Conservative pick up. | |||
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26/04/04 | To The Max Email: [hidden] | |
| Taking a look at the riding boundaries, one would find Kitchener is only a sliver of K-W. An even greater investigation reveals that most of the Kitchener portion are new houses full of young families; the kind that handed Mike Harris the 905 belt in 95/99! Waterloo itself is either like it's Kitchener neighbours, students, or more traditonal people who almost always vote Conservative. Adding into the mix that the sitting MP is not popular, I could easily see Steve Strauss pulling in 55% of the vote! My only other prediction is that the Greens will beat the NDP in this riding, thanks to a strong showing on the UW and Laurier campuses. | |||
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26/04/04 | A Bailey Email: [hidden] | |
| Andrew Telegdi is less popular than his party (for good reason), and the Conservative candidate Steve Strauss is squeaky clean, has an impressive resume, is a good speaker, and is a genuinely nice guy to boot. He is going to win this riding, plain and simple. | |||
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24/04/04 | Full Name Email: toryblue@hotmail.com | |
| BMS is obviously an outsider - the city of Waterloo makes up 75% of this riding, not Kitchener. It's true Liz Witmer has name play that the federal Conservative candidate (Steve Strauss) does not, but it's also true that the incumbent Liberal MP (Andrew Telegdi) is extremely unpopular!!! In fact, I think this riding is one of the top ten most likely Conservative gains in Ontario. The Conservatives already have a well-oiled campaign machine in place - including Witmer organizers, the former PC and CA riding associations, and the UW and WLU campus Tories (students with lots of time on their hands and an special contempt for Liberals!). All this adds up to a Conservative win on sheer effort, nevermind the national campaign. Take it to the bank. | |||
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22/04/04 | BMS Email: [hidden] | |
| Well Waterloo seems pretty Tory, but Kitchener (making up the bigger part of the riding) is bellwhether. Elizabeth Witmer bucked the Liberal title wave but that was because of personal popularity. Had she not run, we would have seen a different story likely (re: McGuinty won staunchy Tory Oakville by a finger nail because Gary Carr didn't run again). Unfortunetly, this wasn't a vote-splitting riding, not by a long shot and Liz Witmer isn't running here. Unless the Conservatives win 40+ seats in Ontario, I'd say a Liberal win. | |||
| 19/04/04 | Bear and Ape Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com | ||
| Another one that is listed as Liberal but should be too close to call. The conservatives kept this riding provincially and they have a good candidate federally. With Telegdi's outbursts and contraversies there is a good chance he'd be ousted. This is one that clearly is too close as of now, lets see how the campaign goes. | |||
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15/04/04 | Paul Email: paulstickney@hotmail.com | |
| The Tories are organized this time around. Steven Strauss is a GREAT candidate to represent the Tories this time around. Telegdi has been nothing but a loose cannon and the residents of Kitchener Waterloo are ready to give him the axe. His recent outburst at a church meeting on the issue of same-sex marriage (whether you support it or not) was a clear example of just how wacko he is. The man got into a shouting match with a Reverend!! He was so passionate about the issue but didn't even show his presense in the House of Commons when the Alliance motion was put forward to protect the definition of marriage. Small problems like this will come back to bite Telegdi in his ass and Strauss's good presence is definetly a good match to do so! | |||
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14/04/04 | Alex Email: [hidden] | |
| I think this one will go Conservative. The combined vote came witin 12% last time(and thosae weren't exactly a pair of stellar campaigns), Telegdi is a horrible candidate despite his incumbency, and Strauss seems to be a fairly good one. It went blue provincially, and i think it'll do the same federally so long as the Tories don't screw up horribly. | |||
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13/04/04 | Full Name Email: [hidden] | |
| First let me get my bias out of the way: I voted Liberal in 2000 largely because (1) I thought the Alliance was scary and (2) I didn't know much about Andrew Telegdi. This time I will probably vote Conservative because I think Stephen Harper is a more moderate, intelligent leader, and Telegdi is frankly an embarassment as an elected representative. I am in my early 30s and most of my peers and co-workers seem to be leaning Conservative this time as well, so I think this seat is going Conservative. I don't know much about the local Conservative candidate, but I caught him on the news and he seems like a decent man, which is about all it will take, in my opinion, for many people to dump Telegdi. | |||
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10/04/04 | Kasra Nejatian Email: [hidden] | |
| Last year, Warren Kinsella had Telegdi ranked as one of his "outrages of the year". Even Libearls won't be turning out to support Telegdi. Here is a guy who has attacked Liberals as often as he has attacked Conservatives. I think the Liberal activists will go next door where they have a better chance of keeping a seat for a more loyal MP. | |||
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27/03/04 | Full Name Email: [hidden] | |
This riding will be hard for the Liberals to hold on to. Some might attribute Liz Witmer's ability to hang onto this seat as a personal popularity issue, but the Kitchener-Waterloo area in general went 3 out of 4 PC in the provincial election - and the one the PCs lost was pretty close. Andrew Telegdi is a maverick, but he's also on record as saying a number of bizarre and/or controversial statements. Toss in the fact that all those provincial Tories who sat out the last two elections are going to throw their weight behind the local Alliance/PC fusion and this could be a barn-burner. | |||
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26/03/04 | Christopher J. Currie Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queesnu.ca | |
I should inform Morty that Andrew Telegdi is *also* Jewish, by background if not by religion (his mother was Jewish, his father a Hungarian Catholic -- I'm not sure how he identifies himself). He's also known as one of the most committed civil libertarians in parliament -- if he occassionally says something foolish (and I'm not sure that the quote listed below is accurate), his commitment to social justice more than makes up for it. | |||
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25/03/04 | Morty Email: durmatang@yahoo.com | |
| The Conservatives have a lot going for them this time around: The incumbent: Andrew Telegdi is better known in local media for his screw-ups than anything else. Including: calling Elinor Caplan's descision regarding a deportation "Nazi-like, like Hitler would do," (the woman is Jewish for goodness sakes)and storming out screaming from some public debate on gay marriage. Liberals who hear him speak in public are generally embarrased. And like all Kitchener-area MP's, he's a wallflower in Parliament. The riding: Waterloo was one of the few to beat predictions of a Liberal takeover in the last provincial election. Elizabeth Witmer owns this town. UW is perhaps's Ontario's most conservative university with a very active PC campus association. The region is also very affluent due to start-up tech companies (RIM, Open-Text, Descartes, Maple etc.), which you would expect to translate into open-minded conservatism. The candidate: while the Alliance + PC result last time around wasn't stellar, keep in mind that the Alliance candidate was a 26 year old student politician. This candidate this year, Steve Strauss, is a former Air Force Pilot with deep roots in the community. The nomination was between 4 very qualified candidates and he won an overwhelming first-ballot victory. Also, the two riding associations have merged without a hitch, creating a larger, more experienced, campaign machine. With the end of vote-splitting, the exposure of the sponsorship scandal, the rise of the Layton NDP, growing consternation about provincial Liberal promise-breaking, and the all important "No Stockwell Day"-factor, the CPC can't help but do better in Ontario. I think these local considerations might just push them over the top in Waterloo. | |||
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24/03/04 | Christopher J. Currie Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca | |
Maverick Liberal backbenchers seem to be fairly common in this section of south-western Ontario, for whatever reason. Telegdi isn't of the same ideological stripe as Galloway, Ur and Steckle, but he should be equally safe. | |||
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24/03/04 | Ted Edmunds Email: [hidden] | |
| This riding tends to have very strong loyalties to it's candidates. They have elected Liz Whitmmer in the last 3 elections and before that, Herb Epp held this riding provincially for a long time. And although this is a more upper class riding, I see Telegdi holding on to this riding unless there is a major Conservative sweep. | |||
| 24/03/04 | Nick Boragina Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com | ||
| While it may look to be an easy Liberal victory, closer inspection of this riding's past history proves that it is not so easy to predict. This one is too close to call for now. | |||
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