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Niagara West-Glanbrook

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:41 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
5:19 PM 6/11/2004

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Dean Allison
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
David Bylsma
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Tom Ferguson
Dave Heatley
Canadian Action canadienne:
Phil Rose
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Debbie Zimmerman

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Erie-Lincoln (31.5%)
John Maloney
Hamilton Mountain (0.2%)
Beth Phinney
Niagara Centre (15.6%)
Tony Tirabassi
Stoney Creek (52.8%)
Hon. Tony Valeri

2000 Result/Résultats:
17,885 40.76%
16,667 37.98%
6,150 14.02%
2,424 5.52%
754 1.72%

(60/197 polls, 21293/66231 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Hamilton Mountain
(4/212 polls, 134/77417 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Niagara Centre
(30/221 polls, 10549/77398 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Stoney Creek
(91/210 polls, 35717/77857 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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23/06/04 Arthur
Email: [hidden]
My parents live in Beamsville, and I was there last weekend. With the exception of Albright Gardens (populated by retired United Church clergy = left of centre), the town seems to have a lot more Dean Alison signs than Zimmerman signs (actually ON people's lawns). In spite of the prominence of Zimmerman, I think the blue tide in the peninsula will wash over this riding on Monday.
23/06/04 Lynette
Email: [hidden]
If the crowd at the Chamber of Commerce debate was a representative sampling of this riding then it won't even be close! This crowd was clearly behind candidate Dean Allison and the policies of the Conservatives. Look for a plurality for Allison in Niagara West -Glanbrook -- Best guess is around 55% of the vote.
21/06/04 Neutral Observer
Email: [hidden]
This should have been an easy Liberal win, but it looks like it's going Conservative by a wide margin. Former Region of Niagara Chair Debbie Zimmerman was hand-picked by Martin to run, and seemed a shoe-in for a cabinet seat, until the Liberal implosion. Zimmerman's own lacklustre campaign hasn't helped... her team published the wrong address for her office in their literature, and then eventually opened an office next to a gun shop, which promptly erected a huge anti-Liberal, anti gun registry sign on her doorstep.
Meanwhile, Conservative Dean Allison has solidified local business support and built a big blue machine that shows no signs of stopping.
A great federal campaign by Martin might have saved this seat, but it's not going to happen...
09/06/04 N.S.
Email: feminist_angel22@hotmail.com
I for a fact know that my street here in Smithville is literally painted blue. Everyone on this street with one or two exceptions all have Dean Allison signs on their lawn. The only problem I have with his campaign, is that it is quite clear that Mr. Allison has slightly been riding the curt tails of MPP Tim Hudak. I recently received a call from Dean Allison's campaign headquarters saying, "we couldn't help but notice that you had a Tim Hudak sign on your lawn, during the provincial election and we were wondering if you would place the conservative candidate, Dean Allison's sign on your lawn." I couldn't help but feel manipulated, which is ok, but they're affiliating Tim Hudak with Dean Allison which isn't necessarily true. I still believe in the conservative principles, my vote will go to Dean, and based on the public support he has on people's lawns all throughout the riding, it would be quite difficult for Mrs. Zimmerman to win.
06/06/04 Ensleyfan
Email: [hidden]
Ensley is out to lunch. In fact, I think he went out to lunch when he picked Badawey in 2003 provincial contest and never came back.
Let's follow Ensley's logic: after voters watch the debates, work up a rage over the sponsorship scandal and the McGuinty budget, scrutinize Harper to see if he is ready, and read about the local candidates and local debates, there is no doubt that local voters will ease back in their lazy-boys, scrap that entire analysis and say, gee, I wonder what former Mayor and second place regional candidate Ralph Beamer is going to do...
Gimme a break. If Debbie is relying on the fealty of regional politicians as part of her election strategy, she has definitely earned the right to remain a regional politician herself.
On the other hand, with Martin sliding in full panic, Zimmerman may be better off to replace Paul's mug on her lawnsigns with that of Ralph Beamer after all.
05/06/04 Nick
Email: [hidden]
In 2000 the Alliance came within 2000 votes of winning this riding. That was when the Liberals were way ahead in the polls. Now that the polls are saying the Conservatives have not only narrowed the gap (which would have been enough to guarantee a Conservative victory here), they are actually leading in Ontario! Ms. Zimmerman may be popular in some parts of the riding, but there is no way her "name" is worth enough to make this race even close.
A conservative prediction here is LONG overdue.
02/06/04 MTC
Email: [hidden]
Let's not forget, most of this riding is known as "Tim Hudak Country". Lincoln County is the conservative heartland of Niagara, and the new riding boundaries (based on 2000 fed results) mathematicaly project a Liberal defeat. Reference the June 2 St. Catharines Standard article by James Wallace.
01/06/04 Brad
Email: [hidden]
I have to respectfully disagree with Mr. Ensley regarding the significance of the national campaign to Niagara West-Glanbrook. Now don't get me wrong, I think the national campaign will obviously make or break many, or even most, seats in Ontario, but I am not so sure this is one of them. The Liberals won last time by less than 3% of the vote, and that was when neither the Alliance or the Tories came even close to Liberal support levels in Ontario. So, basically, rough logic suggests the national campaign would have to have at least close to as much of an impact in this province as it did last time in order to keep Zimmerman afloat here. That is clearly not the case at this stage of the game. If Zimmerman wants to win this one, she'll have to do it on her own, because if we let the national numbers paint the picture, this riding is going blue. It'll be an uphill battle though, since Zimmerman can't play the crucial incumbency card that many Liberals will have to use to distance themselves from the scandal-plagued and provincially-tainted Liberal brand. This time around, ridings without Liberal incumbents are going to be some of the first lost to the CPC. Furthermore, Erie-Lincoln is pretty strong conservative territory anyway - Tim Hudak held on in the Ontario PC meltdown last October, and as a Flaherty-Leadership-Supporter and true CSR believer, he's not exactly a very red Tory. The federal Conservatives shouldn't have much trouble taking this one, even if the rosey numbers they're seeing right now don't hold come election day.
29/05/04 Wade P
Email: Steamer3@yahoo.com
First let me start off by putting forth my bias. I am a member of the Federal NDP executive and very involved in the Dave Heatley campaign. We've been out almost every day going door to door and its amazing the response we've gotten in Grimsby, which is generally a very conservative riding. More so than not we have heard complaints about the Liberal Party, not so much Debbie Zimmerman personally, but Paul Martin and his gang in Ottawa. Dean Allison has been running a strong campaign out here, the town is painted blue. Off of the main streets however, voters are expressing displeasure in lack of a real choice. The NDP will definately rise in votes this election, but Im not so naive to think they will take the riding (its not totally ruled out, im hoping they can slide up the middle). My prediction at this point is Dean Allison at 45%, Debbie Zimmerman at 35%, Dave Heatley/Other at 20%.
27/05/04 Michael Ensley
Other regional councillors who were RE-elected are helping Deb Z as well. Remember, being a regional councillor is only a part time job. It only requires 20 hours of work a week on average, leaving them plenty of time to repay favours for Debbie. Even if Ralph had been re-elected as Mayor, he still would have found time to help on Debbie's campaign. So, even though he was defeated in his race for a seat he is helping out as I type. Keep in mind that Ralph is a strong Tory. He thought the former MPP Frank Sheehan didn't go far enough. But for some reason he's helping Debbie.If Debbie does lose, it'll be because of an overall bad Paul Martin campaign not because of who may or may not be supporting her...THus, I am saying if the National campaign goes well the liberals will hold this seat due to the local support Deb Z is receiving...For this reason I think the National camapign will decide the outcome in Niagara West-Glanbrook.
26/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
To reiterate the "no wonder Tony Valeri stayed away" mantra: even if the Conservatives were truly cornered into being nothing more than Da Reform Alliance Reincarnated under Harper, this would have been their strongest SW Ontario pickup prospect. (Along with Oxford--though that's more from the PC than CA end; and technically speaking, Perth-Middlesex must count as well.) Open seat, big evangelical demo, strong support from popular MPP Tim Hudak, 2000's Alliance candidate re-offering, etc--a blessing from the electoral gods, though kudos to the Grits for taking it seriously enough anyway w/Zimmerman. But if there's an Ontario CPC "bottom ten", the foundation they *must* have, this is among them--and if there are Ontario seats the Liberals might feel at ease with sacrificing without losing their majority, this is among them. (Bizarre trivia: the notional provincial NDP vote here's elevated because Pelham's currently Peter Kormos country--how un-Alliancey can you get. And his populist flair even *won* a lot of Pelham polls last time out; I mean, Hueglin's Prog Canuckistanis are one thing, but if CPC hopes here are undermined by the *NDP*, hoo boy...)
26/05/04 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
Ralph Beamer decided to run for Pelham's first regional councillor seat instead of Mayor and was defeated. My point remains valid the former Mayor lost. He is now supporting Deb Zimmermann. My original statement remains valid..but thanks for forcing clarity.
25/05/04 Kevin
Email: [hidden]
Debbie Zimmerman is unknown in the Glanbrook and Stoney Creek Area. Myself I live in Glanbrook and have had some litertaure in the mail from Dean Allison.
This will be an easy win for the Cons, as I dont think the NDP will be a factor here.
19/05/04 fyi
Email: [hidden]
the former mayor of pelham didnt run for mayor this time.. check your facts.
/05/04 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
Deb Zimmermann has managed to get support from the former Tory mayor of Pelham (but we also know full well that voters in Pelham didn't re-elect him in November so know his influence doesn't count for much these days) and Katie Trombetta and Bob Bentley...I believe she can win if she does well in Grimsby, Upper Stoney Creek and makes inroads into Pelham..Allison will carry all of Lincoln.. The other thing is I do nto believe the combined PC and Alliance vote will hold til June 28...there wil he some drift to the Liberals,,thus you can take the previous totals of the PC and CA and subtract at least 10%..Where do these voters go? They are not going NDP..so inflate the liberals with most of this 10% and thus Deb Zimmermann's winning is very much in play.
12/05/04 Mate
Email: [hidden]
First of all, I think it is inaccurate to suggest that just because the combined vote would have tanked the Liberals in 2000, that means that the Liberals will lose the riding (and it goes the other way too...Liberals can easily lose a riding that they won 50% plus votes)...
That being said, Zimmerman has her work cut out for her. I looked at the 2003 Election Results and crunched a few numbers. PC Brad Clark, former MPP and Minister had 10,880 votes in the Stoney Creek portion of the riding going into NWG while Lib Jennifer Mossop had 10,770. That's a margin of 44.7% to 44.3%.
Grimsby went to Clark (5100 vs 4613 - 48.0% to 43.4%). Upper Stoney Creek went to Mossop (2805 vs 3767 - 37.6% to 50.5%) and Glanbrook went to Clark (2975 vs 2390 - 47.6% to 38.3%)....
In 2000, the combined right would have received 10,532 (47.6%) vs 9982 (45.1%) for the Liberals...again note my cavaet about looking at past results.
What is amazing about these results is the fact that the Liberal never have a presence in this area....since it was never their strong area, they devoted few resources in these areas in past campaigns. And yet, they do relatively well.
If Zimmerman can hold the Erie-Lincoln numbers, and perhaps gain in the urban areas like Pelham, while, by virtue of being the native daughter, gain substantially in Grimsby, and if her campaign focuses on the strengths, Upper Stoney Creek, for example, she will have a real shot.
Allison is well known in Lincoln and will most likely shut Debbie out there.
Debbie though is president of the Grape Growers Association - which is significant in this area.
All I am saying is that at this point, it is way to early to say what is going to happen.
11/05/04 Nick
Email: doodle@cogeco.ca
About 20,000 people live in Grimsby, and the Stoney Creek portion of this riding is MUCH smaller then it was previously - we're talking about some very rural areas along Mud Street that might add up to 10,000 people or so. The population chunk of this riding is Lincoln, Pelham and West Lincoln, who will overwhelmingly vote Conservative. There's a reason Tony Valeri decided to not run in the riding he lives in!
11/05/04 Nick
Email: [hidden]
In the 2000 federal election in Grimsby and Stoney Creek there were 14,209 votes casted for either the Liberals or the CPC. The number of votes casted in Lincoln, West Lincoln, Glanbrook, and Pelham for either the Liberals or the CPC was 22,794. In the 2003 provincial election these numbers are almost the same, Grimsby and Stoney Creek had 14,529 voters, while the Conservative strongholds of Lincoln, West Lincoln, Glanbrook, and Pelham had 23,998. Clearly the base of this riding is not Stoney Creek and Grimsby as a previous poster stated, but rather in these rural Conservative strongholds.
As for this new "PC Party", it won't be a factor in Niagara West-Glanbrook. The "old PCers" are firmly behind Mr. Allison. In fact Shirley Martin, a former PC Cabinet Minister under Brian Mulroney, is playing an active role in Mr. Allisons campaign.
11/05/04 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.ocm
I need to point out Tim Hudak did not carry Stoney Creek nor Grimsby since he did not have too. If he had run in the exact same riding as Brad Clark Tim would have loss much like Clark. Tim knows this to be true. THis is a different riding.. this time around with the Liberals having swept Stoney Creek against Clark..Also, Dean Allison's strength is outside of Stoney Creek where Brad Clark was strong. So, yes I understand the riding which is BTW different this time around. Clark was beaten on his home turf and Allison will lose Stoney Creek even worse this time than Clark did. I do think Allison will keep it close.
10/05/04 Marto
Email: [hidden]
Mr. Ensley aslo insisted that Tim Hudak would lose provincially and Tim smoked Badawey. I think perhaps - while he lives in this riding - he doesn't understand it. This will be close due to Zimmerman's Name recognition - But I think Allison will take when it's all over and done with.
08/05/04 Michael Ensley
Email: Mensley@yahoo.com
Deb Zimmermann has carried Grimsby with strong majorities when being elected as regional Chair. Mind you I can see Allison eating into her large vote some and BTW not the other way around....but one needs to keep in mind the population base of the riding is in Stoney Creek and Grimsby and not in West Lincoln,Glanbrook etc etc.. My thesis is the Tories can win the rural areas and lose the riding IF the Liberals win Stoney Creek and Grimsby. I would recommend doing the Math not with the 2000 results assuming one can add the PC + Reform party together expecting this number to be the same as the Tory vote on June 28,2004. Not going to happen..Also, polling was done prior to the liberal nomination. Zimmermann would not be running if this was a hopeless cause..Actually, quite the opposite is the case. She turned down the provincial Liberal nomination because the outcome was problematic. I can assure you she would not now decide to throw herself into a losing race just for the joy of it. To repeat, the Liberals will sweep Stoney Creek and win Grimbsy allowing the riding to go Liberal.
06/05/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
The results last time were so close, and if we belive that polls say the CPC will take at least 25 seats in ontario, then this is one of them for sure.
About the only thing that could stop a CPC victory is a strong showing by the new "PC" Party. Joe Hueglin, who I think is leader of the new party, will likely be running here.
05/05/04 Nick
Email: nicholasnhl@hotmail.com
In the 2000 federal election the combined CPC vote won every single poll in West Lincoln, most by a landslide. In Lincoln every single poll except one went to the CPC, again most by a landslide. In Pelham the Alliance vote alone won the majority of the polls, add to that the PC vote and Adscam, Pelham is a blue sweep. In Glanbrook the CPC vote wins almost all of the polls. In the last 10 years Grimsby has voted Conservative quite strongly. Debbie will eat away at this, but there is still a solid base that will remain Conservative. There is no way that by winning only Grimsby and Stoney Creek Zimmerman can hope to win Niagara West-Glanbrook. The CPC base in those two regions is way stronger than the Liberal base in Lincoln, West Lincoln, Pelham, and Glanbrook.
03/05/04 Michael Ensley
Email: [hidden]
Deb Zimmerman Will obviously do well in Grimsby which BTW is conservative in its polls.. Last time when Brad Clark won he won Grimsby but lost Stoney Creek. This time Stoney Creek will go Liberal like last time along with Grimsby. The Conservative can do well in Lincoln and other rural areas not not enough to overcome the Liberal majority in Stoney Creek and plurality in Grimsby..
01/05/04 Nick
Email: nicholasnhl@hotmail.com
In reply to Kirk, Debbie was acclaimed in Grimsby. No doubt she is popular in municipal politics in Grimsby. However if she wants to win the riding she has to win more than Grimsby. The people in West Lincoln, Lincoln, Pelham, Stoney Creek, and Glanbrook aren't going to care about her success as a Regional Councilor. When they see the word Liberal they are going to run away from her faster than Martin ran from his past history in the Chretien Government.
Clearly it is time for this riding to be predicted as a win for Mr. Allison and the Conservatives.
29/04/04 Kirk Ashick
Email: [hidden]
Debbie Zimmerman is the "minor miracle" one Conservative supporter refers to. Make no mistake this women is very popular with voters of all political stripe. So popular in fact she has been acclaimed for a Regional seat election after election.
29/04/04 Nick
Email: [hidden]
Dean Allison is a soo-in for this riding. He has had an open campaign office since January and has been out in the riding every saturday knocking on doors and talking to his soon to be constituents. Mr. Allison has shown to the people of Niagara West-Glanbrook that he is interested in representing them, not getting a cushy job in Ottawa like most M.P.s seem to care about.
As for Debbie Zimmerman, she has been a complete no show. She has done nothing to get out in the community and still hasn't opened a campaign office. Aside from popping in for the occasional photo op, Debbie apears to have pulled a disappearing act.
28/04/04 PFR
Email: [hidden]
This riding is going conservative in the next election. Why else would one of Paul Martin's top ministers engage in a bloodbath with Sheila Copps in the new riding of Hamilton East - Stoney Creek? Simple Tony Valeri knew that even he cound not win his home riding. If Valeri could not win this riding for the Liberals then how in the world do they expect anyone else to?
19/04/04 GM
Email: [hidden]
Come on!!! How can you not give enough credit to Dean Allison, the man who came within a thousand votes of winning the election when he was representing the Alliance???
The Conservatives of the area (Hudak for example) are firmly behind Allison and it would take a minor miracle by the Liberal Debbie Zimmerman to pull this one off.
Allison will get 47%, and that will be enough to send him to Ottawa.
10/04/04 Amanda
Email: [hidden]
Dean Alison is a definite win. Mostly because he makes himself known. You turn the pages of any local newspaper and he's there whether it be hospital funding or just events that he has attended. Dean is getting out there and making himself known.
08/04/04 Pauly Sigh
This riding will go to Allison. With the endorsement of well respected local MPP Tim Hudak, Zimmerman doesn't stand a chance.
03/04/04 Pirate Pete
Debbie Zimmerman may be well known in Niagara but this part of Niagara does not vote for the Liberals. This is Conservative country and they will not vote for zimmerman. Zimmerman is in for a shock on election night as she sees that people she's known for years line up and vote against her because she's a Liberal. This won't even be close. Allison will win.
31/03/04 Nick
Email: [hidden]
Debbie might be popular and well known in Grimsby, but that is it. She is a virtual unknown in the areas of Pelham and Stoney Creek. In Lincoln and West Lincoln she is well known, but definitely not popular.
So maybe she does ok in Grimsby (Grimsby voted Blue last time even with high profile Valeri), but she will never win Lincoln, West Lincoln, or Pelham. Stoney Creek could go either way.
Clearly Conservative candidate Dean Allison will win, and probably quite easily
27/03/04 Tristan Crane
Email: [hidden]
This will be Dean Allison's second time running for a seat in this riding and Debbie Zimmerman's first. Dean Allison has already made an impression on Lincoln/West Lincoln and only lost because of Fort Erie voters. Now that the riding has changed Grimsby will likely lean towards Debbie Zimmerman, however Lincoln and West Lincoln will lean towards Dean Allison. Thus, making a victory for Mr. Allison. Furthermore, Tim Hudak MPP an extremly popular Conservative polititian has already publicly displayed his support for Mr. Allison not just in 2000 but he's doing it again now in 2004. Clearly, Dean Allison will be the victor when this is all over.
25/03/04 Rob Falconer
Email: [hidden]
This is a strong Conservative Riding & we've been increasing our memberships daily
25/03/04 A.J.T
Email: [hidden]
Yes, Debbie Zimmerman will most likely win. Almost every person in this riding has heard the name before and I think that even though Dean Allison may be an experienced politician, he doesn't have what Debbie Zimmerman does.... and that is....
20/03/04 Daniel
Email: [hidden]
Debbie Zimmerman is a new candidate with new ideas. She is much to popular and respected to lose to Dean Allison. Although, this community is found to have an overwhelming majority of Conservatives for provinicial elections, it's a clear Liberal when it comes to a federal election.
17/03/04 Marto
Email: [hidden]
While Debbie Zimmerman will make this race closer - Look for Conservative Dean Allison to take this riding. While experienced at the regional level - Debbie has not run in a competative campaign in ages. Dean on the other hand has a great public profile for a guy that hasn't been elected before.
This is also traditional conservative country - why do you think Tony Valeri didn't want to run here in his home riding? He knew no Liberal has a chance.
Debbis will be like Vance Badawey was provincially 1 - overconfident 2- defeated
17/03/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
When you look at the redistributed votes here and in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, which contains the other part of the old Stoney Creek riding, it's easy to see why Tony Valeri picked that riding to run in; there he has a chance to win.
17/03/04 Samantha Smith
Email: [hidden]
If the Progressive Conservative votes and Canadian Alliance votes combine from the last election the Conservative Dean Allison is sure to defeat the liberal candidate.
17/03/04 Craig
No wonder neither Copps nor Valeri wanted to run here. The united right will certainly take this normally Conservative rural riding blue. This would have been one of the few ridings the Tories would have hung on to in the 2003 Ontario election under these boundaries under Tim Hudak, and this federal election will go the same way. Predicted results: Conservative 48%, Liberal 37%, NDP 11%, others 4%.
17/03/04 Amanda Tracey
Email: [hidden]
Dean Allison, who is running for the Conservatives may have damanges slightly with his comments towards the liberal candidate, however when the previous liberal MP was in power he neglected Lincoln frequently. Therefore, I feel that this riding will nolonger elect a liberal and it will be a Conservative. I believe this will occur because the election results between the libs/Canadian Alliance in the 2000 election were so narrow, that it only takes one small town to change the outcome.
16/03/04 D. Ross
Email: [hidden]
This particular area had traditionally been a stronghold for the Conservatives up until 1993. Erie-Lincon, which makes up about one third of this new riding, would not have elected Liberal John Maloney in 1997 or in 2000 if the Conservative vote had not been split. The Conservative vote in the old riding of Stoney Creek, which makes up approximately half of Niagara-West Glanbrook, was fairly high in 1997 and 2000 as well. Therefore, Conservative Dean Allison is likely to reclaim this riding for his party.
15/03/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
Dead Liberal Walking #5.
The Liberal would have won by less than 3% if the last election had been run on these boundaries, but the Conservative vote was split 38% / 14% between the Alliance and PC's. The Liberals would need to capture over 40% of the PC's vote to hang on here.

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