Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Ottawa South

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:00 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
8:40 PM 6/26/2004

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Previous Submissions:

  • Feb & Mar 04
  • Apr 04

    (Links? See sponsorship details.)
    (Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
    Parti Marijuana Party:
    John Akpata
    Raymond Aubin
    Saroj Bains
    Green Party/Parti Vert:
    John Ford
    Monia Mazigh
    Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
    David McGuinty
    Alan Riddell
    PC Party/Parti PC:
    Brad Thomson

    Population 2001
    Number of electors 2000
    Nombre d'électeurs

    Incumbents/Les députés:
    Ottawa South (99.7%)
    Hon. John Manley
    Ottawa-Vanier (0.3%)
    Hon. Mauril Bélanger

    2000 Result/Résultats:
    25,928 51.34%
    12,253 24.26%
    7,979 15.80%
    3,380 6.69%
    958 1.90%

    Ottawa South
    (216/221 polls, 82932/82932 voters)
    2000 Prediction/Complete Results

    (4/230 polls, 248/83576 voters)
    2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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    01 05 05 Election Prediction Project Correction
    Email: [hidden]
    We have edited a number of entries in responsed to letter received from Mr. Riddell's lawyer, dated April 28 2005:

    "Contrary to what is published on your website, Mr. Riddell's license was not under suspension when he drove on June 17 as he had legal authority to be driving. His fine had been paid, and his suspension already lifted, prior to his getting behind the wheel to drive, a fact which has now been officially confirmed in writing by the Ontario Ministry of Transportation. We enclose a copy of the Ministry letter dated March 30, 2005 expressly confirming that "the suspension of the driver licence for Mr. Riddell was rescinded and the driver licence was reinstated as of June 17, 2004". This issue has been successfully litigated against a local newspaper and resulted in the enclosed retraction by the Ottawa Sun."

    The following was contained in a letter issued by the Ministry of Transportation:

    Ministry records indicate that upon payment of the unpaid fine to the court, the suspension of the driver's licence for Mr. Riddell was rescinded and the driver's licence was reinstated as of June 17, 2004. However, the driver's licence was cancelled on Jue 17, 2004 until the reinstatement fee was paid to the ministry on June 18, 2004.

    We apologize for the error.

    24/06/04 Robert
    Email: [hidden]
    Mr. Riddell is turning out to be quite the baffoon. (portion of entry retracted upon request of Mr. Riddell's lawyer) Better still, his conspiracy theories of someone being out to get him and insinuations that his Liberal opponent is part of it is looking quite desparate. When the Conservative friendly Ottawa Sun is featuring this kind of stuff on their front page, you know even they are having a tough time with this guy. I further attended an all candidates forum which we all know is usually 90% stacked with supporters of one stripe or another and he was unable to keep his cool.
    In the end, I do not think it will be close and that McGuinty will win.
    24/06/04 JGH
    Email: [hidden]
    Boy, oh boy. This one is going to be close. I had, up to a week ago, thought that the Conservatives would win by a couple of thousand votes here. They still could win, but as of today it's even money. Today's Ottawa Sun cover story about the driving infractions and graffiti at the riding HQ cannot be good news for Riddell. My guess is that either the Liberals or Tories will win by less than 500 votes. Liberals could very well pull this one out of the bag to join a handful of other ridings (Vanier, G-P-R, Kingston) that poke out in an Eastern Ontario blue wave. Guess we'll find out who has the better GOTV apparatus.
    24/06/04 dean
    Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
    I have read the citizen story with great care and it seems that alan has been fastidious to be abousltely correct with the Citizen, quite the contrast with a couple of recent posters. Ottawa South is now a bellweather riding...if Ontario goes conservative, Ottawa South will do as well. Ipsos Reid showed an unusual drop in support for the Conservatives...very sharp in Ontario...but yesterday's Environics and recent SES dailies suggest that this was a blip and the Conservatives are getting close to leading in Ontario again...Four days left to campaign...Martin's face is off the new Liberal lawnsigns, Conservative win by 500-1,000 votes or so...
    24/06/04 Jack Ross
    Email: g.laws@rogers.com
    The "all candidates debate" (5 of 8 attended) was less of a debate and more of a Stephen Harper hatefest. None the less, the crowd which was mostly decideds and plants was fairly well behaved and got to ask 26 questions (although some of them just made rambling statements with no real question). The Cons candidate got consistenly hammered on eveything from his driving record to his progressive views, most of which don't jive with what Mr. Harper is saying. I took this as a good sign though since it means that Allan Riddell is the perceived/if not actual front runner as far as the Libs are concerned. Outside the walls of the community centre, the voters at large not being too well informed on his regressive views (womens rights) will probably support Mr. Riddell by a very thin margin over Dalton McGuinty's brother. To bad for David really, as he came off quite well at the debate, projecting an elder statesman and progressive aura. Speaking of "progressives", the Progressive Canadian still hasn't resigned himself to the merger of the right and the Green candidate still hasn't gotten over how both the Seirra Club and Greenpeace could have solidly endorsed the NDP platform as being "greener" than theirs. Monia Mahzig (NDP) may appeal to some but if she is too successful in her soft spoken approach, she will simply seal a Cons victory in Ottawa South. I still believe that we are going Cons in this riding, although I agree officially that its "too close to call".
    24/06/04 Mike Wakefield
    Email: [hidden]
    What a mess! The Conservative campaign continues to implode with new revelations this morning. The Citizen couldn't find anyone worth endorsing.
    Lots of people to vote against, no one to vote for.
    24/06/04 Andrew F
    Email: aaaa382004@yahoo.ca
    I am close to the liberal campaign BUT think Ridell should take this one. The Monia Mazigh factor should lure away just enough of the left-wing and Muslim vote to hurt McGuinty. Liberal party in-fighting and the last name McGuinty will also not help. Signage fars favours Ridell. This one would have been easy for Ridell had he not dramatically demonstrated just how shallow his campaign of "Integrity For a Change" is.(portion of entry retracted upon request of Mr. Riddell's lawyer)
    23/06/04 Victor A.
    Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
    David McGuinty will comfortably win this seat this Sunday. The Liberals seem to be back on track in national and Ontarian polls and the conservative candidate has very little appeal to anyone outside his party. He is one of these people in the personality-free zone. ( If you know what I mean ), Monia Mazigh, although well liked by people, will not be be able to gather enough support. A certain win for McGuinty.
    23/06/04 Just me
    Email: [hidden]
    I must say that on my block, I have five conservative signs; three liberals and one NDP; on this basis you would think that Conservatives would have it. I think the Conservatives have gone all out to get their signs up. However, on my block, I know at least 3 other families that are quietly voting liberals and all those that vote conservative have their signs up. My household will mostly vote (4/5) in favour of McGuinty. I also know that 4 members of my wife's book club would have voted NDP but will vote McGuinty so as to avoid Mr. Harper (they also did not think the choice of parachuting Mazigh was a wise one for the party - pandering to the large Somali vote). Finally, I think the electorate (largely bureaucrats) in Ottawa is remembering 1984 and what happened to employment in the town (and the undeserved put-downs of public servants by their Conservative masters -- remember Pat Carney?). My prediction is that voters here are swinging back to the Liberals as they face reality (and the questions about the integrity of Mr. Ridell and his tickets); it had previously been too close to call but it is going to be a narrow victory for David McGuinty.
    23/06/04 Aric Houlihan
    Email: arichoulihan@rogers.com
    Isn't it strange how a small event towards the end of a campaign can possibly blow it for a candidate? Until this last week, the Conservatives had the momentum here against McGuinty because of the Dalton McGuinty situation(portion of entry retracted upon request of Mr. Riddell's lawyer) Candidates need to realize that it is not over until it's over, and you have to stay on form right through the last week until election day. I originally was going to predict this as a Conservative win, but now I will have to say it is too close to call (portion of entry retracted upon request of Mr. Riddell's lawyer) It may still go Conservative, but McGuinty has been given a last minute chance to improve things and may pick up a few hundred votes who are angry with Riddell.
    22/06/04 John A.
    Email: [hidden]
    Another instalment of John's Xtremely unscientific, methodologically unsound prediction technique.
    Last time, I did a sign count over a 2 week period along one of the "spines" of the riding - Pleasant Park Drive. This time, it's another street through Alta Vista - Kilborn Ave.
    Red and white has dramatically caught up to blue and white over the past 7 days - we are now at 15 Con, 13 Lib, 2 NDP and 3 Greens.
    Interestingly, there is a marked dominance of Lib signs as you get closer to Bank Street, but the trend slowly moves toward Con as you move closer to Haig.
    I'll have a chance to test the (so-called) methodology this evening as I'll be at our neighbourhood's all-candidates meeting... maybe I'll I count the colours of the cars in the parking lot or something.... just kidding - I'll post something that will be at least remotely rational.
    21/06/04 Ethan
    Email: [hidden]
    Give the edge to McGuinty in this race -- I was almost ready to call it for the Conservatives until Riddell admitted that he broke the law and lied about it. For a man that is running on a platform of integrity, lying about breaking the law until he is caught by the local newspaper does not instil faith in the electorate. He'll lose because of this and McGuinty will squeak out a very tight win.
    21/06/04 minor local player
    Email: [hidden]
    Until the weekend I would have called this riding for the Conservatives. Alan Riddell seems to be running away with the sign war in most polls with high voter turnout. The Alta Vista Councillor is conservative, and while the ward to the south is held by Diane Deans, who failed to gain the Liberal nomination, much of the area is classic suburban, and likey to go Conservative as a result. The public school trustee reports many parents telling her they want the Liberals out. Dalton didn't do his smarter brother any favours with the budget. Monia Mazigh will not get the breakthrough the NDP hoped for when they parachuted her into the riding. Many of the active NDP riding association members are sitting this one out or are supporting the Greens. Broadbent is rumoured to be switching workers to Ottawa South. Mazigh may pull enough of the Somali community to hurt the Liberals but the lack of a local team shows in sign locations, and she'll be a distant third. (portion of entry retracted upon request of Mr. Riddell's lawyer) Riddell might want to heed the slogan on some of his signs: "Integrity for a change" Too close to call.
    18/06/04 John A.
    Email: [hidden]
    Good point Arzie. Ottawa is a government town and this riding is by and large full of public servants (like me!). Many public servants that I know in the riding have been leaning to the NDP or the Greens but are openly saying that if the race looks to be tight between the Cons and the Labs, they will switch over to the Labs at the polling station in order to do their part to keep the Cons out of power. Heck - that's probably what I will do! A lot of folks in Ottawa South (and elsewhere in Ontario) will be holding their noses and putting an "X" beside the Liberal candidates' names - not because they want to, but because they want to see anyone but Harper. Opinion polls, prior to the one that counts, are not going to reflect this.
    16/06/04 Jack Ross
    Email: [hidden]
    Clearly a two horse race between the Libs and the Cons. If the NDP polls above 10% then it will definitely be a Cons victory. A Cons riding to begin with that has tradionally voted Lib, it will change hands to the Cons because people are angry with Dalton and disappointed with Manley. Cons have demonstrated better organization throughout the campaign, stronger voter contact with focused messages and they ultimately represent change far more effectively than the NDP (at least in the minds of most in Ottawa South). The only (and highly unlikely) hope that the Libs might have is that if "lefties" realize what is about to happen they may be convinced to vote Lib to avoid a Cons victory. However, there is no sign that "lefties" pose this degree of voting intelligence. JMHO
    16/06/04 John A.
    Email: baldjam@rogers.com
    That being said, I would have easily have given this riding to the Liberals after the Provincial election, then there was a buzz about the NDP star candidate, then my neighbours started to talk about "how nice a guy that fellow from Conseravtive Party is"... and I became very confused.
    So, I did a very unscientific study over the past couple of weeks. Very simple. I counted the number of signs along two of this ridings "backbones" through Alta Vista - Pleasant Park and Kilborn - and tracked them over the two week period.
    For the first week (starting June 3), Blue 'n White was everywhere - a little more than a 3:1 ratio.. with the NDP coming in a distant third.
    But I funny thing started to happen. While the Conservative signs certainly weren't decreasing, the Liberals and even the NDP signage began to catch up. yesterday, the margin was narrowed to about 1.5:1:0.75 (Con/Lib/NDP).
    What does this say? Well, as it has been correctly pointed out in posts here and elsewhere on the site, signs are not the best indicator of voting tendencies - my neighbour has a Blue and White sign but has changed his mind about what he'll do on voting day, but he is leaving the sign up! After all, the candidate is a "nice guy".
    But, can extra red and whites over the blue and whites mean that the Conservative swing has reached its peak - maybe too early? That's my call. McGuinty will win this seat, but by the skin of his brother's teeth!
    15/06/04 Arzie Chant
    Email: achant@uwo.ca
    This is Ottawa proper...there won't be any tories here. Lets get that straight now. When it comes to Ottawa, no one wants the intolerant, economically unsound policies of the CPC governing. It's the nation's capital, not a meeting of a religious zealot group like the Promise Keepers (a former president of which is running for the CPC in South-Western Ontario).
    This means it is a race between the NDP and the Liberals. Mazigh would have been a valuable addition to the NDP with her PhD. in Finance, but she is an unlikely NDPer and therefore, left wing supporters are going to move to the Liberals and deliver Ottawa South to them. Mazigh doesn't even support same-sex marriage. While she is concerned with her own religious rights, she apparently cannot be bothered with the rights of others. I guess "look out for number one" is her policy. She's no NDPer. McGuinty it is...which is a victory not only for the Liberals, but also for equality and all Canadian people.
    13/06/04 SEP
    Email: [hidden]
    Almost everyone in Ottawa is either directly or indirectly dependent on the federal government. These people will not help elect a government that will radically downsize the government. This riding will go either Liberal or NDP.
    13/06/04 South Keys Please
    Email: [hidden]
    Voters in Ottawa South get to do what voters all across Ontario want to do and that is vote against a McGuinty. Alan Riddel is going to ride David McGuinty's bad timing all the way down Bank Street to his new office on the Hill.
    13/06/04 Brian
    Email: [hidden]
    Talking to people active in both campaigns, my sense is that that Riddell is currently comfortably ahead but that the situation remains fluid.
    Riddell will no doubt gain increased momentum if Harper does well in the debates. McGuinty is also being hurt badly by his family-association with the Ontario budget. However, McGuinty has a large, well-financed machine, that may benefit from an influx of Ottawa Centre Liberal supporters in the final two weeks if Mahoney loses further ground, as well as strong organizational support from the Mayor's office, where one of McGuinty's other brothers works. Although Mazigh stands to pick up new support from the large Muslim community in this riding it will not be enough to offset support for the two front-runners and could well bleed off past Liberal votes that would have gone to McGuinty.
    12/06/04 Nostradamus
    Email: [hidden]
    LBH..fair enough, points well taken on cross-party issues (abortion & SSM). And if it weren't for that silly little notwithstanding clause thing I'd be in total agreement with you. Whether women and same-sex couples will be too, well we'll just have to wait and see. At any rate, Joe Clark is not the choice Red Tories have this time around, and unless one totally ignores Harper's entire political past it's hard to argue that he is genuinely the "moderate" he is now painting himself out to be. That said LBH, the horse you bet on last time says it far better than I: "better the devil you know" eh?
    Secondly, "civil servant, ergo slavish Liberal" was cute. But, I'm sure even Liberal staffers pay taxes and that they too have witnessed their fair share of their hard earned dollars being poured down bureaucratic sinkholes(AND political one too- and I'm told they aren't happy about it either). The fact remains though, that none other than Nicole Turmel herself is warning public servants of the consequences of a Harper (i.e. smaller) Government. It's about job-keeping, not job-hogging and a vote for the NDP is a negative in that equation, not matter how you slice it.
    Third, it's fair to say that those (Chiarelli and Dalton) who have been raising our taxes should have been more up front about that being a necessary possibility -rather than the other way around. That way we would still be able to invest in certain public goods (O-Train & Healthcare come to mind!)and people likely wouldn't be so upset. But in Ottawa South, we're talking about candidates who've yet had the opportunity to dissapoint us (none have held elected office yet).
    Finally, my point about the McGunity clan is that it is a very activist family, politically and socially. Of course their not the Kennedys and nor would they ever relish such a distinction. As far as I can tell, love of community and country, not vainglory, is what keeps them going. I mean the only reason any of us are posting to this site in the first place is because at some level we care enough about our country to be engaged politically. Nothing wrong with that is there? Alas, we'll have to wait to see who's right come E-Day!
    09/06/04 mini phreek
    Email: mini_phreek@hotmail.com
    this one could become an NDP pick up if the liberals continue to slip in ontario. in a ridding thats 26.72% imagrant and 23.08% visable minority, the NDP candadate that is part of those statisctics has a better chance, she also hapends to speak the thired most spoken language after english and french, Arabic! i can't speak for the liberals and conservatives about that. the Progresive canadain party is also running here, that will split the righ wing vote, even if by just a few % points it could make the diference here. that said it's a 2 way race between the liberals and the NDP, still lickly to go liberal, but i'm betting on the underdog.
    09/06/04 JGH
    Email: [hidden]
    a) Red Tories and NDPs to march en masse to the Libs. This is an excellent point, why should we expect these voters to be in the same party as anti-choice, anti-gay zealots like Tom Wappell, Paul Steckle, John McKay,... WHAT? These are LIBERALS? Hell, I'm a classic Red Tory - pro-choice, pro-SSM, thrice a supporter of Joe Clark for leader, and I'm going to be voting Conservative. Why? Because abortion and SSM are cross-party issues and realistically, SSM and abortion rights are in no danger no matter who gets in. Any other claim is just hysterical capital L Liberal nonsense.
    b) Ottawa South Liberal Machine (tm). I really can't comment on this much since I have no special knowledge about these folks. If, however, the vaunted machine only managed to get the Premier, one of the Magical McGuinty clan (see point d) an 8,000 vote plurality in the teeth of a provincewide Liberal landslide, methinks they are over-selling themselves a smidge.
    c) Line up the ducks. Yes, why not. I mean, Chiarelli and Dalton McGuinty both pledged not to raise my taxes, then went on to... RAISE MY TAXES. Who wouldn't want to hit for the cycle? Imagine the damage these three could do to my paycheque when their forces are aligned together!
    d) The old McGuinty magic. Come on, these aren't the Kennedys we're talking about, it's the McGuintys. Part of a "long-term strategy of expanding (the McGuinty family's) political force"? WTF??? I suppose we simple-minded Ottawa South voters should be content to humbly bask in the reflected glory of the McGuinty aura. Also - promising Ottawa South another Cabinet Minister - who honestly cares about this in Ottawa South? Like if we have a Cabinet Minister, he'll be able to direct more federal goodies to... OTTAWA? What, is David going to move the Peace Tower to Walkley Road?
    e) Civil servant ergo slavish Liberal. I can't say I'm surprised at this comment, but I can't help but feel a tinge of disappointment that politically-involved people make the mistake of fundamentally misreading civil servants. Perhaps moreso than other voters, civil servants are upset at the cavalier mis-spending of funds through AdScam and other sundry debacles because they reflect poorly on all federal programs. And this may come as a shock to Liberal staffers, but self-preservation and job-hogging are not first and foremost on the reasons for which people join the civil service. Anyways, if civil servants don't like the Tory platform, there are other options available to them - you may have heard of this party called the New Democrats? People in neighbouring Ottawa Centre sure have.
    Anyways, that was awesome. As this riding slips further into Tory hands, I expect the Liberal partisans to continue to post increasingly vituperative and unintentionally hilarious reasons that this riding, despite all evidence, will remain Liberal. Onward and upward!
    08/06/04 Brian
    Email: [hidden]
    I live in Alta Vista within two blocks of the McGuinty law office. Before last year's provincial election the neighbourhood was covered in McGuinty signs. This time around I am struck by the fact that Riddell signs now outnumber McGuinty signs, particularly on private property. The buzz among those neighbours I have spoken to is that McGuinty is in trouble and that people are ready to consider Riddell as a viable alternative. While this is by no means a scientific sampling of voter intentions, it does reflect the problems facing McGuinty's campaign.
    06/06/04 Bear and Ape
    Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
    That's for the comments Dean. Our (rather blunt as we usually are) comments were made on some older numbers. The Conservatives have pulled ahead of the Liberals in Ontario...does this hold? Who knows? There was a little confusion on what we ment when we said that the Liberal vote is centered in Toronto and Ottawa. We did NOT mean that the Liberals are AS STRONG as they are in Toronto, yet they are still doing well in many parts of Ottawa. With recent numbers (and alot of anger of Dalton's budget and the sullying of the family name) we feel that this riding could go Conservative but we still feel the Liberals have the edge for now. We'd like to caution pundits on reading too much into lawn signs. We live in the Windsor area and on a drive this morning, Ape noticed many Conservative signs on people's lawns (the ration about 1 Conservative to 1 Liberal to 2 NDP). A visitor may think that the Conservatives have a good chance here, but anyone who knows Windsor knows that this is a Liberal/NDP battle. People who are non-partisan often allow lawn signs that are not necessarily for the party they'll vote for (we often see multiple signs on a lawn...Bear's neighbour has all three main party's on her lawn). You may be right that the Conservatives are storming ahead, but we'll be a little more cautious on giving it to the Tory's just yet.
    06/06/04 Aric Houlihan
    Email: arichoulihan@rogers.com
    A few months ago this would have been out of reach for the Conservatives. A walk through a neighbourhood in Ottawa South tonight revealed several times the Conservative signs as NDP or LIberal. The combined CA/PC vote here in 2000 was about 40%. With the Libs now down and the Cons now up, and with anger towards Dalton McGuinty, I think the Cons will steal Ottawa South. Dalton McGuinty himself only wins his seat in each election by a few thousand votes and not a landslide, so the potential is certainly there, although it is possibly the Libs could hold on. From what I can see now, it looks out of reach for the NDP to take it with star candidate Monia Mazigh as originally hoped.
    04/06/04 Nostradamus
    McGunity will win. And I predict he'll get about 28,000 votes. Here's why:
    (a) Red tories and Dippers will join the Liberal core of the riding in casting strategic "ABH" (Anything But Harper) votes. As the new (Alliance) Conservative party's platform and inner ideological leanings (God, Guns & Gays) once again bubbles to the surface -which we're starting to see already, despite Harper's attempts to keep a lid on the crazies and present himself as a moderate- voters will get spooked at the prospect of turning the national government over to Harper's Canadianized republicanism; understandably, people want to give Martin and the Libs a slap -most notably for the way he whacked Chretien and grabbed power, it says something about the man, and the people around him - for taking them for granted in the pursuit of power for power's sake, but they won't cut off their nose to spite their face. While some disgruntled Libs might have initially intended to "sit on their hands" and watch Paul blow his brains out, self-interest will get them out soon enough (they wouldn't be able to get work in a Harper town!)
    (b) David is extremely well organized with lots of seasoned pros and political staffers helping him out ;
    (c) Voters understand that intergovernmental cooperation -i.e. having all their ducks lined up municipally (Chiarelli), provincially (Dalton), and federally- is good for the riding;
    (d) Despite Paul Martin, David is going to win the riding on his own strength (he'll have knocked on every door before election day). In other words, it will be a good 'ol local battle about who'll make the best MP (it helps, too, that he's the best credentialled and qualified of the lot, therefore promising Ottawa South another Cabinet Minister). Additionally, keep in mind that David's entry into federal politics is part of the McGuinty Clan's long-game strategy of expanding its politcal force and base and they will likely be around long after Martin has moved on (do your homework on Brendan & Dylan McGuinty if you don't beleive me).
    (e) Finally, a lot of public servants and senior government managers live in Ottawa South. They read the papers more than your average Joe. I don't think their interested in being "downsized" or comfortable with the thought of having Harper (Bush North) as their Commander in Chief. Food for thought, but mark my words -Come E-day, Ottawa South is going McGuinty Liberal.
    04/06/04 David C
    Email: [hidden]
    Agreed Ottawa South is too close to call. Mazigh is the wild card. I have heard people in other parts of the province say they wished they lived in Ottawa and could vote for her. Conservatives won't go down without a fight either. Anything could happen here.
    03/06/04 A.S.
    Email: adma@interlog.com
    One thing's for certain: were John Manley running again, this would be in no danger--or if it were, we'd be *really* hearing it constantly like he was C.D. Howe or something. (The fact that his replacement's the brother of the Premier is strangely, drearily inconsequential...or not, esp. given the budget.) Like Ottawa-Orleans, a "surprise" endangered seat, albeit w/o as high-profile a Tory as Walter Robinson running--instead, as we've been hearing over and over, it's the *NDP* who's fielding the high-profile star candidate here. Who is also the most overrated electoral symbol of this election because, well, this isn't really an "NDP" sort of seat, never has been (except, maybe, borderline provincially in the 70s). Perhaps in the election runup when Jack Layton held all sorts of quixotic promise, it looked like a possibility. And it still might, if the balance of the campaign somehow works to Layton's favour outside of the inner cities, even. But if he winds up looking like just so much Howard Deanish hot air, as early indications suggest--well, maybe those sneering sorts who say that Monia Mazigh or no Monia Mazigh, the Kneedips will lose their deposit here once again, are right. *So why is the media fixating so much on her?!?* Beats me...
    03/06/04 dean
    Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
    Hi Bear and Ape...I also like to be realistic and am also on the ground, so to speak...As of this morning, there are 9 Conservative signs in my neighbourhood (Riverside Drive/Mooney's Bay) to 4 Liberal and one Green. Conservatives also "out-signing" in Hunt Club by a good margin. Liberals doing well enough in Playfair Park and Alta Vista.
    It looks a lot like the 1999 provincial election, except Alan Riddell, the Conservative candidate, is much stronger and better organized. He should carry the middle class polls in the south and west of the riding, plus neighbourhoods like Elmvale Acres, while Monia Mazigh eats away at Liberal majorites in Heatherington/Heron Gate. The big question is whether affluent Alta Vista, the stronghold of the McGuinty dynasty, will crack. I'm predicting it will so that Riddell wins by 1,500 votes or so, at least at this stage.
    I do question Bear and Ape's contention that Ottawa will be as strongly Liberal as Toronto. I don't know of polls suggesting it and it doesn't look like that on the ground.
    03/06/04 JGH
    Email: [hidden]
    Lawn signs are increasingly favouring Riddell over McGuinty with each passing day. In Alta Vista, the McGuinty home turf, I see quite a number of homes which just last fall proudly sported the McGuinty provincial red... er, burgundy Liberal colours. Now, none of these homes have signs, and their neighbours have tory blue on their lawn. On the quiet curving crescents of Canterbury, and into Greenboro and Billings, you're apt to see three to five houses in a row with Riddell signs, and a lone McGuinty sign. I can't imagine what it's like over on Riverside or into Hunt Club. There are a few Mazigh signs popping up on lawns here and there - not a huge amount - I've seen maybe eight or ten, but certainly more than was the case in the provincial campaign, where the sighting of an NDP lawn sign on private property was an occasion to gather the family and take pictures.
    I'm going to post for the conservatives, although it is still quite possible that the Liberals could win this - narrowly. No way should this riding be called an easy Liberal hold at this time.
    02/06/04 Bear and Ape
    Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
    Okay guys, lets be realistic (seems we tend to say this alot to NDP supporters). Dalton honked off just about everyone under the sun with his budget. Martin has honked off just about everyone with just about everything he does. Despite this, the Liberals will take Ottawa South. It will be uncomfortably close with both the NDp and the Conservatives having very respectable showings but it will be a clear Liberal win. Liberal support is concentrated in urban centers across the country. The Grits are sitting at 36% in Ontario, tied with the Torys. This 36% of the electorate is centered in Toronto and Ottawa. Meaning the Liberals will keep most Ottawa area seats, including Ottawa South. If and only if the Liberals continue to slide will the riding come into play. It's not in play yet!
    27/05/04 Eastern Ontario Values
    Email: [hidden]
    Ontario voters are angry. Just look at what they did in Hamilton East, and that's with the widely respected Agostino name on the ballot. Imagine what they'll do with a McGuinty on the ballot. And don't assume that Dalton McGuinty has a lot of personal support to call upon - His Liberals won a huge landslide in October 2003, but he only won Ottawa South 24,000 to 16,000 against an unknown Tory candidate. A clear win, but rather underwhelming for a newly-minted Premier. Pile on Sponsorship and Martin's scapegoating of the civil service, and this could be a shock result on election night.
    28/05/04 Mike Wakefield
    Email: [hidden]
    Is David McGuinty saving money by not putting up signs, or are his signs being removed as quickly as they go up?
    I spent about a half-hour driving through the riding running errands, and didn't see a single Liberal sign anywhere.
    Coincidentally, CBO did a news piece this morning on the riding. Alan Riddell claimed that his polling numbers went from about even to a good lead after the provincial budget. David McGuinty said that people are angry, but they'll get over it.
    25/05/04 René Lemieux
    Email: [hidden]
    Je ne peux être certain à 100%, mais je crois que le Parti conservateur a de bonne chance dans ce comté.
    Certains électeurs traditionnellement libéraux d'Ottawa-Sud auront peut-être l'envie d'envoyer un message à McGuinty par l'entremise de son frère, ainsi qu'à Martin avec le Scandale des commandites et passeront conséquemment au PC. D'autres iront au NPD, mais probablement pas en aussi grand nombre.
    Aux dernières élections, quand on décompte le nombre de votes des anciens conservateurs et des alliancistes ensemble, il ne reste pas un grand écart pour remporter le siège face au Parti libéral.
    25/05/04 Mere Boulard
    Email: [hidden]
    It is no less probable that vengance vote will go to the NDP than to the conservative alliance. I've read that Ottawa south has a large multicultural population, many of whom will identify with Monia, who has been in Canada less than 10 years, I believe. Plus, people have seen her strengths in much-publisized the fight to have her husband repatriated.
    23/05/04 dean
    Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
    At about 1:10 pm, with the ink on the writ just drying, I was called upon by my first federal candidate, Alan Riddell. I chatted with his advance canvasser who told me that their response has been remarkable since the Ontario Budget. People volunteer that they will vote for him before he can even introduce himself...it is just that he isn't McGuinty...
    23/05/04 Voice of the Common Man
    Email: [hidden]
    I don't think the Ontario provincial budget will have a lasting impact on the federal campaign in Ontario (if it has one already, which is dubious)... except in Ottawa South.
    "McGuinty" is a dirty word. He might as well be named "Bin Laden".
    Torie workers from unwinnable Ottawa-area ridings are already filing into Ottawa South in droves to take out a McGuinty. And they are going to succeed.
    23/05/04 dean
    Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
    Both today's Ipsos Reid and yesterday's Compas, showed the Libs taking a sudden and dramatic hit in Ontario. David McGuinty as candidate will be a lightening rod for this trend in Ottawa South. I was also interested in the article in yesterday's Sun that made this very point. It showed results of Alan Riddell's personal canvassing, showing good levels of support for him, and a big chunk of "I'm not voting Liberal under any circumstnaces".
    23/05/04 Brad
    Email: [hidden]
    Dalton made a serious miscalculation on how Ontarians would respond to his recent budget. He actually found a way to disenfranchise both those on the right (with the health tax) and those on the left (with the tax hitting middle and low income earners the hardest). Given that Ontarians can't touch Dalton for potentially 4 and a half more years, they may be inclined to take out their frustration at the federal level. Needless to say, if there was one Liberal candidate in the province who would suffer for the mistakes of Dalton, it will be this one - McGuinty's brother. I think it maybe a tad early to predict a conservative victory here, but I do think this is now far from a Liberal hold.
    23/05/04 dean
    Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
    Given the political fallout from the provincial budget (see today's COMPAS poll, taken after, compared to the latest IPSOS, taken before), is it true that the new campaign slogan for David McGuinty is "Am I my brother's keeper?"
    19/05/04 Billy Zebob
    Email: [hidden]
    I wouldn't count out Monia yet. She will have a well financed election campaign and a large campaign team. After today's budget a lot of voters will be very happy to send the McGuinty family a message they can't ignore about integrity.
    19/05/04 JGH
    Email: [hidden]
    I've argued in the past that this race should be classified as too close to call, but let me add one more reason. Yesterday's provincial budget resulted in a $600 a year tax increase for pretty much everyone in this solidly middle-class riding. $600 is a pretty big gobsmack for most people to absorb when they had been led to believe during the previous campaign that no tax hikes would be forthcoming, and that the Premier (their sitting MPP) had given his vow, in writing, that he would not raise taxes. Me, I'm pretty pissed.
    Now, you can argue till the cows come home whether McGuinty was justified in what he did, and you can argue that in most ridings, this won't make a difference to the Liberal candidate. But here in Ottawa South, voters have been presented with the closest thing to a perfect shining vessel by which to register their disappointment with Premier McGuinty: by voting against a member of his immediate family. I don't think wavering voters will be able to pass on this opportunity to deliver a swift kick in the nether regions to the Preem. Within one month of the largest tax increase in more than a decade, many undecided voters will be disinclined to put their X next to D. McGuinty.
    Time to take down the Liberal symbol next to this riding and replace it with the gay pride lightning bolt party symbol a.k.a. too close to call.
    /05/04 dean
    Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
    Dear Funky Chicken...I am pleased to help you out on a few points, but was dismayed by some of the others...
    "Too close to call" is a category in the election prediction site. I personally think that Alan Riddell will win and have tried through several posts to show how, but was pleading for a change in the "liberal" to "too close to call" category of the webmaster. Two different things...
    If you have learned about Alan Riddell...please tell me in a sentence that doesn't include...without justification..."creepy" in it...
    I am "outed" as a resident of Mooneys Bay...I hardly know what to say since a canvasser called here...I couldn't change my neighbourhood to anything else. However, I invite Funky Chicken to see homes abutting Riverside Drive itself to decide how different they are from others in the riding. I do confess to being a Consevative partisan...but also to being a dispassonate analyst...Look across the country...my posts are everywhere and I have "elected" candidates from every party but the Bloc in a riding...and I am happy to include them as well...
    I appreciate Mr. McGuinty's credentials (though his name recognition lies elsewhere, though close at hand) but made the less than novel observation that a McGuinty being nominated by a Liberal Prime Minister for an appointed position isn't the most substantive addition to a resume.
    I do shake hands with a fellow civil servant but also invite a discussion on how the civil service has flourished in the past decade. For three elections, the civil servcie has strongly supported the Liberal Party...for reasons that economic gain eludes them. Now, we find the upper echelons are confounded by a PMO grown even more powerful and intrusive...the lower echelons feeling the economic pinch of a net income loss since 1993, and all feeling the impact of ever increasing Liberal infiltration of a non-partisan civil service. From all that, there is the catalyst of a bit of a protest vote.
    On the NDPs chances...they are mainstream across this riding as any other in the country, and have had a past vote in this riding in the 20-30% range...provincial and federal. They have been the third party, and a fixture in Parliament, for decades and their fortunes have waxed and waned...though Monia Mazigh, on the extra appeal of a recognition of a human rights abuse, has stronger credentials than most. I do agree that her appeal will concentrate in the substantial Muslim minority...but that is politics...On the subject of being "parachuted", this is a much abused concept...it used to mean a high power (e.g. political party functionaries) arranging for a person to be nominated elsewhere to ensure his or her election (classic example Jack Pickersgill from the Ottawa civil service to an outport riding in Newfoundland)...Monia Mazigh is running elsewhere from the MP who worked for her husband for reasons tha appear to be entirely honorable.
    /05/04 Funky Chicken
    Email: [hidden]
    I am sure this was posted by Ms. McLeod, (who loves a free public display of her name?) just to get my goat and leave the Conservative flag on top of the column. I'll allow the weak poke at the "McGuinty brand name" but that was just one part of the recent arguments I posted, and I don't think this will matter whatsoever because the voters are smarter than to install a PC in the ir Ottawa-area riding when Paul Martin will be again carrying a majority government, as the more recent polling trends indicate. (It may be a small majority, but it will be a majority) Even Ms. McLeod knows that Name Recognition is a key factor, and it's why Jan Harder's name is bandied about for Mayor of Ottawa (if you yap enough, your yapping will become self-sustaining. Alan Riddell has no name rec except in small politico-watching circles and among the 300 or so Tories who voted at the Ottawa South Alliance-Conservative nomination. David McGuinty has Liberal name rec that is well proven in Ottawa South since 1987. He has additional name rec as the oft-quoted CEO of the National Roundtable on the Environment and the Economy, and excellent issue credibility. 'Nuff said. I also wonder how effective Pierre PWAH_Liver's campaign in Nepean-Carleton will be if its manager has time to do this stuff. The Funky Chicken has some time to burn, at least until the writ drops. I'm sure that Peter Liver's campaign should be ramping up, but, well, maybe we should write it off fully. Keep this one marked Liberal. [and no, I won't rebut the next one, unless there is something substantial to deal with]
    12/05/04 Lisa MacLeod
    Email: lisam@bluedraft.com
    Sorry to disappoint, but polls are telling two things: 1) Mcguinty brand name is less than to be desired and 2) Liberal brand name is likely to never be desired again. While it is statistically impossible for the NDP to even come second, Riddell has a great opportunity in this historically Tory riding (remember Claude Bennett and Barry Turner?)
    12/05/04 Funky Chicken
    Email: [hidden]
    I am writing on the 12th of May simply to rebut Dean and fly a Liberal flag on top of the listings. Just two posts ago, Dean wrote:
    "It looks like Ottawa South should be competitive and exciting...and definitely too close to call!"
    Yet he chooses to float a Conservative prediction, as he seems to on most postings (I will accept correction if I am wrong...) Dean has also revealed that he lives over by Mooney's Bay. That's the most fertile ground for the Harper-Alliance-Reform-Conservatives (HARC!) and not representative of the whole riding and it seems to me to "out" Dean as a conservative partisan.
    Dean also seems obsessed with some notion of "Civil service backlash" votes. I've been in the bureaucracy, and I do not take the oportunity to earn white collar salary for granted. Working hard in the civil service allows ownership of nice houses in Alta Vista or Hunt Club, or Greenboro. People should not forget that. PSAC is vocal, and the latest negotiations are interesting, but this is FAR from a defining political factor right now. And neither is sponsorship... the media need much to talk about. The RCMP have just booked some wrongdoers. But I digress. Here's a breakdown of Ottawa South:
    1. David McGuinty (LIB) will approximate the vote result achieved by John Manley due to the following reasons: a) good Liberal organization ---> some of the best Libral machinery in the City is in Ottawa South b) good name recognition c) excellent credentials particularly on the environment, the new deal for municipalities and the urban infrastructure renewal stuff. Well-informed civil servants and politicos (it is certainly an informed riding) will recognize the strengths d)Paul Martin instead of Jean Chretien playing well with fiscally conservative but civil, and socially moderate, Alta Vistans and Hunt Clubbers. Matin's presence will mitigate an anti-Chretien sentiment that even impacted somewhat on John Manley. e) good family man image, standard Alta Vista hockey Dad stuff, good community member, masterfully bilingual, respected civil servant, nice orator, etc.
    2. I have learned a bit more about Alan Riddell (and his involvement as a strategist in the Camille Awada ottawa South Liberal nomination campaign, confirmed by a reliable source) but still don't know anything about him or what public profile he can bring to the consituents of Ottawa South. Someone wrote that he's "good looking and well spoken" . Only the latter matters. The first is creepy. Maybe it was written in March by excited conservatives during Belinda-mania.
    As for Monia Mazigh, now confirmed as the NDP candidate: She is ghettoizing the so-called Muslim vote, instead of mainstreaming it (which is symbolic... the NDP is not mainstream in this riding or across the country) and the NDP simply is not a viable force in Ottawa South. Whatever parked vote appears to be for the NDP in current national opinion polls (with Liberals trending upwards lately, by the way, and especially in Ontario) will SIMPLY NOT translate into the main campaign in Ottawa South. No way. Also, Monia has said publicly on numerous occasions that Liberal MP Marlene Catterall was helpful to her in her (quite admirable) quest on behalf of her husband. She's from out-of-riding, and has been parachuted in on the dedicated (but few) NDP members and activists in South, all for the short term gain of Jack "photo ops and stunts even cheezier than Hampton" Layton. It won't fly. Lastly, the figure of $400.00 million attached to the Maher Arar lawsuit won't fly, either. Stop dreaming.
    11/05/04 dean
    Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
    Insider...Insider...how many campaigns can implode from the withdrawal of one person, Lisa MacLeod...I saw your post on Ottawa Centre and was startled that the Ottawa South Conservative campaign could be so easily scuttled as well! I doubt anyone's campaigns can fall off the rails before the writ is issued, let alone one with the organizational "ummppp" of Alan Riddell's. ...
    Now, as to your substance. First, I don't think Greens are going to be too impressed that a McGuinty, low and behold, managed to get appointed to head up the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy, which, even David McGuinty admits, is a Federal Government entity, whose members are appointed by the Prime Minister.
    Thus, I think the Greens are still on track to win around 5% of the vote in Ottawa South...my estimate of 2,000 may be too low.
    On Monia Mazigh, with the NDP running at 20% in Ontario and the NDP vote in Otttawa South closely mirroring their previous Ontario vote totals, I think 10,000 is imminently doable...
    My estimate for 18,000-20,000 for Riddell may even be too low, only around 35%...
    Anyway, as usual, your commentary is chock full of interesting stuff...I hope my rebuttals do not discourage you.
    10/05/04 The Insider
    Email: [hidden]
    Sorry Dean, but you couldn't be more wrong. I just learned that City Councillor and former Tory, Peter Hume has signed-up with the McGuinty campaign, and is also taking a lawn sign. I will predict that Peter will also endorse David as well. I also learned that City Councillor Jan Harder will be tossed from Riddell's camp for ensorsing David Pratt. More turmoil to say the least. And to make matters worse for Riddell, the very capable and strong Tory organizer, Lisa MacLeod has left Riddell's campaign as well. Can you say implosion? In addition, I also hear that former mayor and Tory, Allan Higdon is also supporting McGuinty. As for your anlaysis, there is no way Monia will get 10,000+ votes! No way! The Green Party will steal far more votes from the NDP than the Liberals and Conservatives. However, look for the Greens to also support David because of his past position as Chair and CEO of the National Roundtable on the Evironment and Economy. A great many Red Tories will vote for David because of Paul Martin, Stephen Harper and David himself. David will break the 50% mark. Guaranteed!!!
    06/05/04 Dean
    Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
    So it begins...I was canvassed for the first time in election campaign 2004 by a supporter of Alan Riddell working the neighbourhood of Mooney's Bay/Riverside Park. The most recent poll, COMPASS, had the Liberals up by 14% in Ontario, i.e. 45%, 31% Conservative and 20% for the NDP...In 2000, even with Manley, the Conservative combined vote was better than their Ontario average and the Liberals slightly less...
    I'm guessing a slightly larger turnout this time out there...let's say 52,000 in Ottawa South
    Fact One: The NDP vote should expand greatly this election, especially with a star NDP candidate...I think Monia Mazigh will get 10,000+ votes...pulling many from the Liberals
    Fact Two: This time, the Greens have nominated a candidate in Ottawa South and should be able to garner about 2,000 votes...they will get votes from all three parties, but once again, will draw best from the Liberals
    Fact Three: Assuming some slippage from the combined Conservative/Alliance vote last time but with a greater turnout, the Conservatives, at the starting gate, should be getting the support of some 18,000-20,000 voters.
    Fact Four: That leaves the Liberals in the range of 20,000-22,000 votes.
    It looks like Ottawa South should be competitive and exciting...and definitely too close to call!
    03/05/04 MM
    Email: [hidden]
    Monia was originally approached by the Liberals but chose to stick her neck out with the underdog NDP considering its' mandate for social justice.
    From the seniors in McGuinty's neighbourhood (some family members included) my sense is that their mistrust of the provincial Liberals is reinforced by the Federal sponsorship scandal and visa versa.
    Grey power may rear it's head through a pro-NDP protest vote especially since no one believes the Martin team wants to sustain Medicare. The immigrant and impulsive shopper when added to the mix could land a surprise victory for the NDP!

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