Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
10:23 PM 6/22/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:01 PM 18/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Leo Bonomi
Elaine Couto
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Jim Fannon
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Linda Klassen
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Walt Lastewka
Ted Mouradian
Canadian Action canadienne:
Jane Paxton

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Niagara Centre (7.5%)
Tony Tirabassi
St. Catharines (92.5%)
Hon. Walt Lastewka

2000 Result/Résultats:
22,232 44.73%
16,691 33.58%
7,080 14.24%
3,210 6.46%
489 0.98%

Niagara Centre
(19/221 polls, 6285/77398 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

St. Catharines
(210/211 polls, 77930/77930 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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18/06/04 Neutral Observer
Email: [hidden]
As someone with good connections to all three major candidates, I'd cautiously give this one to the Liberals. Mouradian is a good public speaker, but is not seen as a legitmate contender, and his "lifestyle choices" do not play well with the riding's aging, socially conservative largely eastern European and Italian population. Bonomi's support is solid, but his lack of awareness of local issues and visible leadership of the local pro-life movement are hurting him. In a recently televised candidate's debate, he was reduced to reading lengthy passages from the party platform in order to answer questions posed to him. Lastewka is a poor public speaker, but he's a strong constituency man, not often visible in the media, but extremely active in community events (with all the attendant glad-handing and baby-kissing). In a riding where ethnic associations carry the big stick, this could put him over the top. Local polling suggests that - even at the height of the Liberal crash-and-burn - Lastewka is still up by a few points.
16/06/04 Marto
Email: [hidden]
I had put this riding in the "too close to call" category pre -writ. I have to say that I now think Walt is in a lot of trouble. CPC are in a position to take 3 of 4 Niagara seats - with the NDP in play in the fourth. Put this one in the CPC column
12/06/04 Darryl Whitehead
Email: dwhiteh@uwo.ca
Born in St.Catharines, but now at school at Western, I returned home to find my neighbourhood (old glenridge) as part of the newly expanded st.cath riding. the section from downtown to glendale including riverview, is really conservative... judging by signs, leo has a way way better shot then I had figured.
I always have written off my area as either liberal (walt, gib parent, etc) or ndp (kormos...) and it seems nothing changes, nor is it ever close. In the past signs have always favoured the liberals... but this time it is staggering to see the sea of blue. leo has even done some smart signage in port dalousie... putting two signs on some lawns... but on the far opposite edges to give the impression of two houses... i was fooled time and time again.
if the libs stay low in the polls, st.catharines could finally return a conservative candidate.
I predict a conservative victory, but, its pretty close to call at this point.... signs and talking to my neighbours however, people are sayin ABTL (anyone but the liberals)
09/06/04 King Pin
Email: [hidden]
Walt carried the riding with 44% of the vote in 2000, there is no way he can match that number as the Liberal national campaign continues to go south and with the general mistrust of the Liberals. His Riding was expanded with the addition of Conservative south end St Catharines (up to Glendale Ave) and Ted Mouradian will get more votes than John Bacher taking votes away from Lastewka. The very best Lastewka can hope for is 31-34% of the vote. That won't be enough to hold on. Bonomi wins.
09/06/04 I.G.
Email: [hidden]
A new problem this year with all ridings is the realignment of geographical boundaries. South St. Catharines voters who were split off to Welland/Niagara Centre last time will be included in the new St. Catharines riding and are mainly well-off, two-parent, double-income, and tend to be Conservative voting. As others have said Walt is not known to these voters as he has no profile in Ottawa or in the city. A surprising relatively unknown although having been in Ottawa for some time. Could make a difference in a close election.
09/06/04 Nick
Email: doodle@cogeco.ca
This is the third time I've changed my own prediction for this riding, though only the second time I posted - I posted my initial Conservative prediction, later I figured it would go Red. Now that Paul Martin's campaign is sinking faster then a used Canadian submarine and the Conservatives are a full 10 points ahead of the Liberals in the province of Ontario, The Honourable Walt Lastewka is going to go down with the Liberal ship. St. Catharines has just about always elected a Federal MP along with the party that forms Government. If the campaign continues as it is and Steven Harper does turn out to be our next Prime Minister, Leo Bonomi will be the MP for St. Catharines regardless of what the locals think of him.
07/06/04 M.Kavanaugh
Email: [hidden]
I am still undecided, but going by the information I have seen at the door and in the standard from the candidates, Walt Lastewka has a better track record on the local front. All I have seen from Leo Bonomi advertising is motherhood statements with no indication of what he will do for St. Catharines if elected MP.
05/06/04 Leo Lehman
Email: ll03uv@brocku.ca
Bonomi is not as strong a candidate as many conservatives would believe. At the first debate, he looked uptight and was evasive in answering most questions. The NDP is not going to be a big factor in this riding. The NDP is not going to be a big factor here. Their nominee Ted Mouradian is not a strong candidate. In the last municipal election he ran for regional council and did not even get 4% of the vote. This riding will be decided by local issues and Lastewka is the only one addressing them. So, this will be close, but Lastewka should hold this seat.
27/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
If the last "normal" election in 1988 may be used as a back-to-the-future guide to what *might* happen, PC won St. Kitts with 40%, against a 30ish Liberal and an 25ish NDP. As CPC prospects go, it's pure Trailer Park Tory: suburban Niagara evangelicals and "Randy Taylor" populists abound, together with people still cheesed off at Paul Bernardo and others harbouring some kind of resentment t/w that abstract symbol known as "Toronto". Which explains its being a constant Reform/Alliance target. Trouble is, the local Tory/Alliance machine huffs and puffs and gesticulates yet constantly underestimates the degree of inherent urban/suburban *moderation* in St. Kitts; that is, the critical cheesed-off mass isn't critical enough. (Provincially speaking, it's how come Jim Bradley resists all electoral comers.) Or rather, *wasn't* critical enough, pre-Adscam, pre-CPC, pre-McGuinty budget etc--all the garbage which is now the Tories' manna from the heavens. And unlike Jim Bradley, Lastewka's of little consequence except as another Chretien's Ontario rubber-stamper. The obtrusive element in this salivatin' prospect of a Tory pickup: a resurgent NDP populism which, yes, might even reclaim some of the erstwhile ReformAlliance constituency. (Hey, Peter Kormos is next door...)
25/05/04 WC
Email: [hidden]
No "Progresive" split here. Both the former CA president and the Former PC President are on the Campaign team. Both the former CA and PC candidates from 2000 are on the Campaign team. Cam and his advisors are on the Campign team. The riding is fully funded and volunteers number in the hundreds. Walt's election machine is still a formidable force but the weight of the boondogles, adscams and the Provincial Liberal budget will sink him.
16/05/04 B. Stewart
Email: [hidden]
The incumbent here went on CTV's Question Period and made some damaging comments about Adscam pointing the finger at Jean Chretien's office! Not only does it show that there is still friction between the Chretien and Martin wing of the Liberal Party but it may cause some disgruntled Chretien supporters to stay home election day allowing the Tories to creep in.
08/05/04 Chris
Email: [hidden]
"With the nomination of Leo Bonomi instead of Cam Leach, I think that many progressive's will be scared to vote Conservative."
This is exactly the kind of partisan rhetoric and fear mongering the Liberals will have to resort to if they hope to retain this riding, since Walt has hardly been a star in Ottawa. This riding was Conservative before and it can most certainly go Conservative again!
06/05/04 BC
Email: [hidden]
St. Catharines is a very winnable riding for the Conservatives. It is a fact that vote splitting has played a role in Liberal victories here in the past. Lastewka is really a "no name" in Ottawa and even in St. Catharines and this will help the Conservatives. The Conservatives elected a strong candidate in Leo Bonomi who seems to have the desire to fight for St. Catharines, something Lastewka has lost and really never had. Another factor is that the N.D.P. have a very strong candidate in Ted Mouradian who has the support of the local unions and he will definately take votes from the Liberals. We may even see a vote split on the left.
06/05/04 Leo Lehman
Email: ll03uv@brocku.ca
With the nomination of Leo Bonomi instead of Cam Leach, I think that many progressive's will be scared to vote Conservative. This will undoubtedly be a close riding, but unless there is a major Liberal meltdown, I don't see Bonomi or anyone else defeating Lastewka.
05/05/04 To The Max
Jim Bradley has a great deal of respect on all sides of the legislature, but that does not necessairly mean this riding is "Liberal". First off, this riding does have a lot of rural area around it, Conservative territory.
Let's not forget too, that the name Paul Bernardo means a lot in this area and that the Conservatives need only bring this up locally to find that wedge issue! It'll be close, but I say this is a take for the Conservatives!
24/04/04 Nick
Email: doodle@cogeco.ca
Leo, may I remind of you of Rob Hesp's results in 93 and 97? Reform (and later the Canadian Alliance) have always done very well in this riding. Randy Taylor had little to do with the results in 2000. While I respect your opinion, I believe that you should take a closer look at the results from the past three elections, not just 2000.
12/04/04 Leo Lehman
Email: ll03uv@brocku.ca
With all due respect, the only reason the Aliance got so many votes in 2000 was because of because of their candidate. The Alliance candidate was a popular radio talk-show host, Randy Taylor (formerly from CKTB in Niagara, currently from CFRB in Toronto). St. Catharines does elect candidates as opposed to parties, and not as many would have voted for the Aliance as voted for Randy Taylor. This will be close, especially if the Con's select a good candidate, but look for a Liberal/Lestewka win.
09/04/04 Nick
Email: doodle@cogeco.ca
Those who believe that St. Catharines will stay Liberal federally just because of Jim Bradly do not understand the dynamics of this riding. Jim Bradly is well-respected and liked by residents of all political stripes, and has a huge following in areas of the city that are otherwise considered "Consiervative" areas (e.g. West End). He is the longest serving MPP in Ontario and could just as easily get re-elected as an Independant if he were thrown out of the party. That same recognition does not exist for Mr. Lastewka, and although he has become better-known in the last three years, the federal election will go by party stripe and not name recognition. The Reform party was very strong here in 93 and 97 and every election has only resulted in a Liberal win due to vote splitting, although 2000 was close. Progressive Conservatives in St. Catharines also voted overwhelmingly in favour of the merger with the Canadian Alliance, so the Red Tory factor isn't all that big. This will be a Liberal loss regardless of what happens during the campaign, though how much of a loss remains to be seen.
07/04/04 Leo Lehman
Email: ll03uv@brocku.ca
I don't agree with the conventional wisdom about PC and Aliance vote spliting. While the combination of Aliance and PC votes was greater than the Liberals in 2000, That does not mean that support will carry over to this election. Many people who voted for the PC's in the last election will be weary of voteing for this new conservative party. This will be a very close race, but look for Lastewka to be re-elected.
03/04/04 Pirate Pete
Walt Lastewka got elected in 1993 and re-elected in 1997 and 2000 because the right wing vote was split in this riding. Cam Leach will get all a united right vote and easily beat Lastewka.
27/03/04 Happy
Email: [hidden]
I wouldn't paint this district red quite yet. Walt Lastewka isn't exactly a "titan" in our nation's capital.
The citizens of St. Catharines may ask themselves how they are better off having had Walt as their M.P. for these past years.
If the Conservative candidate works hard and pounds the pavement, the voters may answer the above question on E-Day.
23/03/04 Marto
Email: [hidden]
This one is too close to call. There was a lot of sad faces in St. Catharines when Walt Lastewka was left out of a Paul Martin Cabinet. To respond to Issac Brock's comment - this is only a safe seat provincially because of Jim Bradly - Lastewka would have lost to a united Conservative party last time. If the Tories nominate a good candidate they have a great chance at stealing this riding.
19/03/04 BMS
Email: [hidden]
This riding is more Conservative federally than it is provincially. It was a vote-splitting riding in '97 and 2000. In 1997, the Reform Party had over 15,000 votes. The PC's got 6,500. The Liberals got about 21,000 votes. In 2000, those numbers were about the same. I wouldn't say this is a shoo-in for the Liberals quite yet, it could go either way.
17/03/04 Issac Brock
Email: [hidden]
This is a safe Liberal riding Provincially. For that reason alone, I'm inclined to think that the Grits can't possibly lose it Federally.

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