Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Scarborough Southwest

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:41 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
8:46 PM 18/03/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Dan Harris
Heather Jewell
Elizabeth Rowley
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Peter Van Dalen
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Tom Wappel

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Scarborough Centre (8.3%)
John Cannis
Scarborough Southwest (91.7%)
Tom Wappel

2000 Result/Résultats:
20,245 59.82%
4,970 14.68%
4,633 13.69%
3,474 10.26%
523 1.55%

Scarborough Centre
(22/215 polls, 5322/74162 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Scarborough Southwest
(171/202 polls, 58617/67251 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Authorized by the Official Agent for the Scarbrough-Southwest Federal NDP Association
24/06/04 Gerry
Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
I'm going to end up saying Liberal. Just what I'm hearing in the final days of the campaign and the fact that Wappel FINALLY seems to be getting some signs up makes me feel this is the safest bet.
But this will be much closer than anyone would have guessed a few months ago.
24/06/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
Unlike neighbouring Tories, Heather Jewell has a well-oiled campaign machine, lots of money (or she's spending it like she does) and she is personally determined. The response at the doors has been encouraging although it is clearly split three ways. Its going to be close, but if work pays off, she's out-worked Wappell and Harris.
23/06/04 S.E.
Email: [hidden]
Disgust with Wappel after his treatment of the veteran and his general idiocy over the years, plus an extremely hard-working, young conservative candidate, plus a resurgent NDP in Toronto equals a conservative upset on the 28th. Agree with previous posters calling for a tight race, which will lead to this surprise win. I call this to go before Don Valley West, which is receiving more media attention.
23/06/04 Malcolm Everet
Email: mc_everet@hotmail.com
This riding is definitely shaping into quite the race, I have to agree with everyone that Wappel is running third in signs and that Jewell is winning the sign war on the main streets but the neighbourhoods I think tell a different story. Victoria Park from Danforth to Queen, all of Danforth Rd., Pharmacy, Queensbury, St. Clair V.P. to Warden, Harewood, Eastville, Park, Macintosh, Highview, Pinegrove and others show that Dan Harris is winning away from the main drags.
Things will be very tight, tighter since the boundary changes make the riding more closely resemble the old Scarborough West riding. Jewell or Harris up, Wappel down.
18/06/04 Dave S
Email: dsimms@arvotek.net
I have to change my prediction to Conservative, but it will be a close 3 way race. Heather isn't the sharpest tool in the shed but she is working hard and has totally dominated the sign war. Wappel is a jerk, no question about it, but he is the incumbent and the area has a Liberal tradition. The Dan Harris is running a solid campaign and the NDP have always done fairly well in this area. I predict the winner will take less than 37% of the votes. Should be a real nail biter on election night.
Email: [hidden]
To be honest, the Wappel train is not picking up. The conservative movement in this riding is substantial. Wappel has his core, but I think they're loyal to the liberal movement rather than Wappel. Wap's treatment of the 81 year old veteran who asked for help and was rebuked is pretty sad and is finding its way around the riding.
Look for a possible upset, if not a close race.
12/06/04 George Zisis
Email: [hidden]
I think the writing is finally on the wall for Tom Wappell. He's had an undistinguished record to help buffer against the malaise that's settled in on the Liberals in Ontario. Conservative candidate Heather Jewell has far and away the most campaign signs on the lawns in the riding, mirroring the rise in support for the Conservatives in the province. Votes for her are logically coming at the expense of the Liberals. Combine that with a resurgent N.D.P. vote, 10-15% higher than in the 10% they reached in 2000 in this riding, (which again logic dictates is coming from the Liberal base) and a Conservative win here seems more and more likely.
09/06/04 Gerry
Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
I must change my prediction. I live in this riding and I can tell you that the sign war is being won MASSIVELY by Heather Jewell. Dan Harris is in second. I've received two pieces of literature plus a phone call from Jewell and a piece of literature from Harris. I've seen neither hyde nor hare of Wappel. I have no idea where he is.
Then if you apply province-wide trends from last time and consider Wappel has become more unpopular since then, you have a strong chance for an upset. I still think Wappel will take it but it's far closer than I ever imagined it would be.
08/06/04 Dave S
Email: dsimms@arvotek.net
The Conservative took an early lead in the sign race but the NDP are rapidly catching up. With Liberal support dropping, this riding could be up for grabs. I predict Liberal 34%, NDP 32%, Conservative 29% and Green 5% with +/- 5% for all.
08/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
Well well, NDP at 23 per cent in Ontario (Ipsos) and where do you think that vote is? Simcoe County? No - it's right here, south of St. Clair Av., among other places. Where is it coming from? The Liberals I would say. What happens on election night? Three way split: too close to call.
07/06/04 Mike D
I hear the NDP is coming on strong here, but it will be difficult to win the seat. The Conservative candidate is running a strong campaign and will easily take down Wappell with a little help from the NDP. Some have pointed to this riding as a key indicator of the overall campaign, which is more bad news for Wappell.
06/06/04 MSH
Email: [hidden]
Few people will mourn Tom Wappel's defeat if he does get beaten, and the Conservatives may just be able to pull it off. It's a bit of a long shot at time of writing, though; a lot of votes will have to shift. Still, Wappel is undistinguished and he has made enemies. If the Conservatives start showing significant gains in popular support in Toronto, Scarborough Southwest and Etobicoke Lakeshore seem the most likely to go to them.
05/06/04 Bill Petrie
Email: [hidden]
I was driving around it on business last Friday, and from what I saw, the Conservatives were out signing the Liberals at least 10 to 1. It was shocking. I have been worked in Liberal campaigns for over 30 years and when you are being outsigned this badly, it really means something.
Email: nesbitt_m@hotmail.com
I don't like him in the least, but Mr. Wappel is going to win. Again.
I belong to no party, work in no organization, and I seriously don't like my MP's positions or opinions on most everything, but the guy has a deep trench built in the community. I've gotten about 6 householders in my mailbox in the last two months, all with his name and picture displayed front and centre.
The tories will make gains, so will the NDP. But again, they'll be fighting it out for second place. I'm hoping that the Green Party picks up some of the slack, but I'm not holding my breath.
And don't try to bring up that whole pensioner thing again, guys. Yes he was a knob. And he survived it. And he'll do it agian, because he seems to be covered in teflon. Or he just doesn't care.
28/05/04 Rick
Email: [hidden]
I think this riding has a chance to go blue. It's clear that Tom's Wappel's treatment of a 81 year old veteran is sickening and exudes levels of partisanship unbeknownst in the canadian political system. Jewell looks better than ever and it will be a close fight.
Demand Better.
26/05/04 Victor A.
Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
Ah Scarberia, I will make only one comment that IMVHO actually is valid for all 5 ridings here as well as for the 40 % of the riding of Pickering-Scarborough East that are located within the city boundaries. First up, what is up the Liberal Party??? with all due respect to everyone involved I have never seen such a WEAK group of candidates all 5 are absolutely not cabinet material and should have been replaced not only this time around but also in the year 2000. The Scarberia backbenchers are really way below the PLC average and I wonder why didn't Martin intervene himself to nominate somebody really up to the task and I wonder even more why didn't the local Liberal associations replace these people. I mean come on guys everyone knows what I'm talking about. The only one with some possible yet unlikely ministerial prospects is Dan McTeague but despite being smart he is just too right wing for the GTA to be in the cabinet and should tone it down a little especially with his Christian values and the SSM opposition, let's remember we are not in Nipissing-Renfrew-Pembroke here, ROFL :)
All of that is in the sharp contract to the provincial Scarborough MLAs ( incl. two ministers ) that are active, competent and represent people well as well as most of the city concilors from this area.
Scarborough will yet again vote Liberal, BUT the NDP will rightfully target these areas since their possibility of breakthrough here is certaily high, it won't happen this time 'round, but in the long-term it is certainly possible. This time, Scarborough South-West should be the closest one but still even here Wappel will win yet again. The NDP should target the ethnic vote here and should have chosen some Chinese Canadian and South Asian Canadians that are popular in thier respective communities but somehow it wasn't meant to be and I'm not sure that Olivia's presence will be enough this time around.
Again, looking at the average household income and the number of immigrants in Scarberia this can and should be a potential NDP target. Now, Pickering-Scarborough East is slightly different, definitely more suburban and richer than the other 5 ridings, the PC could win there in the future and even the NDP would have some serious possibilitiy but not this time around, McTeague should be safe.
15/05/04 Grant
Email: grantramcgill@yahoo.ca
I agree, there could be massive changes in the political landscape once the election gets going, and the NDP is bound to do much better in SSW because it was so pitiful the last time out.
But it stands at 16%, in Ontario, according to the last Ipsos-Reid poll, and seems to be hovering between 15 and 20% province wide. The scenario implied below would have to rely on heavy vote splitting and a return of the NDP to their former glories.
As for the latter point, SSW mimics the behavior of Etobicoke North & Etobicoke Lakeshore. In the 70s and early 80s, a strong second place finish could be relied upon almost every time. By the late 1980s, the NDP was usually in a strong 3rd (except in E-L in 1988 where they came within 800 votes of winning, but there was no Liberal candidate running that time).
After 1993, it all imploded, the National Party only carved away a small sliver of the once huge NDP base. There was a brief rise in '97, then another crash in 2000.
The NDP will likely rise higher than their '97 totals, but it seems to be that for Layton to crow about regaining their former stronghold, there will also have to be either a large case of vote splitting, and you need a strong Conservative party and/or Tory candidate to drain votes from the Grits (or have a large drop in the voter turnout, but that's another story).
At 26% in the polls, a leader who has had only limited success in grabbing the spotlight, and a rather youthful candidate, I don't those scenarios coming to pass.
Wappel stays, with a reduced majority, accompanied by a gaggle of Scarberians crying, a la Henny Youngman, "Take my MP, please!"
13/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Anyone forget about the Jack Layton/David Miller effect? By no means must the NDP be ruled out here; even if it's no longer Wayne & Garth's postwar working-class burb, the provincial Lewis/Johnston/Swarbrick legacy and memories of John Harney's federal runs (and one victory) in the 70s still leaves a mighty legacy, and the party has continued to treat SSW with ghost-of-the-machine slumbering seriousness--consider it as an extension of East Toronto, and if the Kneedips are serious about Toronto-Danforth and Beaches-East York, they ought to be next-tier serious about this, too. (Also: both halves favoured Miller for the mayoralty.) Besides, with all the bad press re crime etc lately, Scarborough has the makings of a potential political powderkeg--right now, everyone looks safe, but earthquakes happen. And don't forget the undistinguished or just plain flaky nature of Scarberia's federal Liberal delegation (by comparison, its *provincial* reps are 2 cabinet ministers, 2 well-regarded ex-councillors, and the Speaker!); in case of a powderkeg, watch out. And most of all Tom Wappel with his, uh, chequered reputation--there is no way "progressive" voices a la David Miller will come out and support him. He's been safe against no credible opposition so far; while CPC is a definite possibility (esp. given good Reform runs in 93/97, the latter the best in Toronto that year), the sheer proximity of Layton and related issues (including the fact that this is the not-so-prosperous 416 indicates that the New Democrats (reoffering their '00 standard-bearer Dan Harris) might be the truer threat. Maybe it's a gamble to say that; maybe not...but hey, this is *Tom Wappel* we're faced with...
12/05/04 Grant
Email: grantramcgill@yahoo.ca
I have to disagree with NN-P about his assessment of how the media, and others, will suddenly turn upon Wappel with ferocity. He endured his storm years ago. And he established/cemented his reputation as being a big, fat bible-thumping hypocrite, re. shagging his secretary and making her the 2nd Mrs. Wappel....lovely
Now they'll turn on him again with national press coverage? Doubt it. Been there, done that. How could such a story get legs. Heather Jewell's, among others, campaign will try and (re)hammer home that incident, and it will impact his numbers. But enough to wipe out a 10,000 vote margin of victory?
I agree that there's been volatility, before 1993, that is. The NDP vote hasn't recovered. And even though it may do so this time around, the Tories are 22 points behind the Grits and have Layton at their heels. Why would there be a sudden peak in a Liberal (recently acquired...:) bastion of Scarborough
As for Heather Jewell being an "exciting...articulate...attractive" candidate...(shrug). Damned if I know her. And is this unknown going to bring this massive surge in SSW from those flowing qualities?
Yes, she may be known to party people in the area, may have some community standing etc., but do the great unwashed masses in SSW know who she is. If not, can she get that across in the 5-6 weeks before we cast ballots?
Tom Wappel sure isn't stellar, but he does have three things going for him:
(1) He's a Liberal
(2) He's in Scarborough
(3) He has a pulse
And Jewell will have to make Scarborough Southwest giddy as hell before I'm convinced she can start a 16% swing. Until then, Tom Wappel (shudder) returns.
13/04/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
Wait until the Royal Canadian Legion (and the media) turn on Wappel for dissing the war vet who had an NDP sign on his lawn. Even more damaging is that Wappel the moralistic anti-abortion champ shuffled off to Buffalo with someone other than the wife and kids. Every party has held this seat in recent memory and could again, although I give it to the CPC because Heather Jewell is an attractive and articulate candidate.
01/04/04 Gerry
Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
Yes, I've heard of Tom Wappel and yes, he's an embarrassment to the riding and he will not have my vote. But let's be realistic here. For Conservatives to win, they'll have to get at least 40%. If they somehow were to do that well in any Toronto riding (a situation I very much doubt), it won't be this one. The western half of the riding (diving along, say, Kennedy) is very, working class old Stephen Lewis area. Conservatives won't poll 30%. The eastern half is more typical south Scarborough bluffs area but the Tories sure as hell won't get 50% in this part.
01/04/04 Andrew Cox
Email: andrewcox101@hotmail.com
Liberal hold. Reasons: 1) This riding has long NDP roots, enjoying provincial representation from Stephen Lewis, Richard Johnston and Anne Swarbrick prior to the Rae government. However, both NDP voters and the voters in this riding have changed. What was once a blue-collar, Western and Southern European community of bungelows and apartment blocks is now increasingly polyethnic, poorer in parts, weathier in others. The NDP doesn't appeal to the lunchbox crowd much anymore, and appeals even less to lower-income New Canadians. 2) Wappel is a real piece of work. His social conservative politics aside, his scandalous mistreatment of a veteran who sought his help is inexcusible. But Wappel will hold the seat because local candidates in the GTA tend to be more of a cipher, particularly in the suburbs. 3) Wappel's social conservativism on abotion and equal marriage doesn't help in the upper-middle class areas along the lake, but it does mobilize a cadre of volunteers. ! And its probably a wash among most of the blue-collar and New Canadian voters who dominate the riding and vote with their wallets, not their copy of the Charter. 4) PC Reg Stackhouse represented the area in the Mulroney years, but was as Red as Red Tory comes. That said, crime and tax issues do play here well. The riding would go Tory if the Conservatives venture into majority government territory, but very few are predicting that.
31/03/04 The Masked Tory
Email: [hidden]
Well, maybe you have not heard of her, but that being said, all we have heard of Tom Wappell since the 2000 election has been his horrific treatment of a Canadian veteran who's only mistake was not voting for Mr. Wappel, being denied the servies of his MP.
Oh, and wait,we heard from Wappell when he supported John Nunziata for Mayor of Toronto.
Stellar record since the 2000 election for Mr. Wappell.
My prediction stands. The Conservatives will take this seat, with an excellent candidate in Ms. Jewell, and rising polls in the province of Ontario.
23/03/04 Gerry
Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
"She's been active in the party for years". Congratulations. I sure as hell haven't heard of her. Nor have any of my neighbours or family members who live here. The only people in the riding who have heard of her are the people I know to be conservatives. Wappel may be weak but that doesn't take away from the fact that he got a massive majority last time. Long-Term Care Minister Dan Newman suffered a huge defeat here last fall. Like Jesse, I wouldn't be suprised to see the NDP come in second here (though I'm not betting on it). Conservatives have no chance anywhere in Toronto. This thing called "the Blue Wave" is restricted to rural Ontario.
Current Predix:
20/03/04 The Masked Tory
Email: [hidden]
Heather Jewell is hardly an unknown. She has been active in the Party for years, and she has an excellent chance of taking this seat. Tom Wappell is weak. And its likely that a Blue Wave of change will wash over Scarborough Southwest.
20/03/04 IGB
Email: [hidden]
Just to clarify, Tom Wappel IS the official Liberal candidate in Scarborough Southwest, nominated last month. Truth be told, Wappel is one of the most conservative members of the Liberal Party, and this will probably give him enough appeal to carry him through in the riding. Candidates will no doubt make an issue of some of his comments in the past (remember the incident with the veteran who didn't vote for him a few years back?), but these are marginal issues and Wappel will probably pull it out.
20/03/04 Jesse Hoffman
Email: [hidden]
The Conservatives don't have a chance in any Toronto riding, and this one is no different. I wouldn't be surprised to see the NDP finish ahead of the CPC here, but regardless it will be a distant second. Unfourtunatly the bigoted Tom Wappel will be returning to the House of Commons fairly comfterably.
19/03/04 Gerry
Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
Conservatives have no chance. They nominated an unknown, Heather Jewell, last Thursday. Wappel is not popular but he is still known and this is a very Liberal riding. They'll have to collapse not to win this one.
17/03/04 J.M.
Email: [hidden]
I think that the Conservatives have more than an even chance of winning in this riding. I live in the riding, and I am a community activist who talks to a lot of people, including Liberals and Conservatives. This is one of 2 or 3 ridings in Metropolitan Toronto which is likely to go Conservative.
The Conservatives seem to be invigorated by the merger of the two parties, and the Liberals are not sure who they are going to be having running. I know for a fact the Conservatives have nominated a candidate in this riding by the name of Heather Jewell. It is not clear that the Liberals will sign Tom Wappel's nomination papers, and there seems to be a movement within the Liberal Party to nominate someone else. Recent polls show the Conservatives tracking at 36% in Ontario. Given those numbers and a good Conservative campaign, the riding can be won.

Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici
Return to/retournez à - Provincial Index/Actualité provinciale
Return to/retournez à - 2004 Federal Election Prediction/Prévision de élection générale 2004

© 1999-2004 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com - Email Webmaster