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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
11:54 PM 6/14/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:52 AM 17/03/2004

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Canadian Action canadienne:
Walter Aolari
Octavia Beckles
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Maurizio Bevilacqua
Paolo Fabrizio
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Russell Korus
Joe Spina

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Vaughan-King-Aurora (100.0%)
Hon. Maurizio Bevilacqua

2000 Result/Résultats:
27,111 75.92%
4,762 13.34%
2,548 7.14%
1,065 2.98%
224 0.63%

(127/215 polls, 62645/98722 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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I think it's too close to call. After being dumped from cabinet, Maurizio's weakness was exposed. He is a "yes man" to whom ever he feels will best suit his personal goals. He shows little in leadership and has done even less for Vaughan. Save for the strong Italian Liberal vote, he would be out in a second. But, add the fact of voter anger with provincial Liberal Minister Sorbara, this may be enough for a Spina upset. Although all of Spina's ducks must fall into place, which may in fact be happening.
08/06/04 Marto
Email: [hidden]
While most would give the edge to guy like Bevelacqua - I wouldn't be so sure. The 905 tends to vote as a block (look at the last 3 prov elections) and 905 land is about to take their anger at the McGuinty Liberals out on Paul Martin. Joe Spina is an experienced campaigner that lost by only a slim margin in the last provincial election (in Brampton). To count Joe out of this race would be a mistake.
29/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
An erstwhile Martinite, Maurizio B. may have been spurned for having played footsie w/Chretien--but come now; this is Vaughan. And a Vaughan riding increasingly pared-down to its Woodbridge/Maple essentials, with fewer and fewer of those extraneous Tory-friendly parts (notionally, it might even have gone provincially Liberal, or barely Tory at best, in 1995 and 1999). Then again, given how beleaguered the Fed Grits are, former Brampton MPP Joe Spina's not necessarily pipe-dreaming by parachuting himself eastward in order to confront the Mighty Maurizio. Despite his somewhat repellent nature, Spina fared quite well electorally under Harris, and his 1993 defeat was still quite slim. And as some of Fed Grit Karygiannii and Wappelpaloozas prove, the Tories have no monopoly in repellent-yet-electable. (Or need we mention a certain recent representative for Montreal's answer to Vaughan, i.e. Fonzie Gagliano...)
27/05/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
Who are Cuddy and Harris? Why are they bothering to run? This will be a fight to the end. I agree with 2 of the more recent posts. One with respects to the composition and break up of the neighbourhoods and the second because there will be so much NDP support, they will have every union, gay, treehugger and other lefty supporting Layton it will be so hard for Layton not to lose.
I think what will make the difference in this riding is the swing protest vote against Mills. As much as I don't like Layton, although he is a good orator (seen him at Ryerson), he will win this riding by the same 2500-3000 margin that the NDP lost to Mills in the last election.
Not so fast on your zero risk prediction. A population upset with the current Liberal scandals (compounded by the provincial finance minister), an incumbant MP yes, but one now on the fringe of the party after being publicly embarrassed by the lack of a cabinet post (Bevilacqua not getting a post was the lead story on CBC the night of the cabinet announcement), a strong candidate in former MPP Joe Spina who has many local ties with the community, all add up to Vaughan not neccessarily being the cakewalk many Liberals believe it will be. Favourites yes, shoe-ins no.
16/03/04 905er
No doubt here - Liberal hold. 75% of the vote last time - a well liked M.P. and the provincial Minister of Finance in the riding (notwithstanding his current troubles) all equate to a virtually zero risk prediction.

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