Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:08 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
1:25 PM 21/03/2004

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Jody DI Bartolomeo
Mel Grunstein
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
John Maloney
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Ryan McLaughlin
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Irma Ruiter
Ron Walker

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Erie-Lincoln (22.5%)
John Maloney
Niagara Centre (74.9%)
Tony Tirabassi
Niagara Falls (2.7%)
Gary Pillitteri

2000 Result/Résultats:
23,034 48.03%
12,783 26.65%
7,288 15.20%
4,305 8.98%
550 1.15%

(59/197 polls, 18172/66231 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Niagara Centre
(172/221 polls, 60564/77398 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Niagara Falls
(9/192 polls, 2175/68649 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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22/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
In Welland, no way the Conservatives can win it, they just are not up enough overall (29-30 per cent as Compared to 25 for the Alliance).. and in this riding with the Kormos effect many anti-Lib votes will go NDP.
NDP got 16 per cent here last time and since then their projected vote in Ontario has basically tripled (on 2000 result) It is in places like this where it has tripled. Liberals have to hold onto every vote and they will not. Close, three way race.
20/06/04 Pat
Email: [hidden]
I am surprised at the weak NDP campaign here in Welland. I spoke to some folks who are involved and they told me that there is virtually no organization. A couple of key people in the Kormos organization have gone to the Niagara Falls campaign and judging from Wayne Gates signs there they are doing a good job.
20/06/04 RD
Email: [hidden]
Instead of driving to Welland down the 406, I got off the highway and drove down Louth, Rykert, Pelham, Glendale and Glenridge in St. Catharines and Merrittville Highway in Thorold. On the first three streets (Western Hill neighbourhood), I saw about 25 NDP signs and 2 Conservative signs. In the Glenridge neighbourhood, I saw about 20 Tory signs and no NDP signs. Until I got to Welland, I didn't see any Liberal signs.
As noted below, Welland has a long Liberal tradition in Welland riding. All that I can guess is that the nomination battle between two incumbents (the loser living in Thorold) has left the winner without much to work with in the north end of the riding.
If anyone beats the Liberals, it will be the NDP. It remains to be seen if the NDP campaign will be strong enough to take advantage of this potential.
At the least, I would put this riding into the Too Close to Call category.
16/06/04 Marto
Email: [hidden]
Maloney is likely the only Liberal in Niagara to survive. The NDP will be in play in this riding - but unfortunately the weakest current government memberin Niagara (Maloney)- will,most likely survive. Thankfully due to riding redistribution - he won't represent me!!
14/06/04 jim
Email: [hidden]
Just a quick note to Al and A.S. RPW is quite right in saying that Upstate New York is not "Republican leaning".First of all I think Hillary would object to being called a "Republican senator". If you take the 2000 election for example (which was a republican win), more congessional districts went democrate. In the presidential race Gore took a lot more votes than Bush, however he took fewer counties. If you take the 1996 election (which was a democrate win),Upstate New York numbers are even better for the democrates. Now to comment about the election coming Welland will certainly stay Liberal as predicted on this site.This is the safest Niagara seat for them. Niagara West-Glanbrook will probably fall to the Conservatives while St.Catherines and Niagara Falls are toss ups.
09/06/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@hotmail.com
Welland is a (mostly) blue collar riding with a history of backing Dippers provincially and Grits federally, so logic would in theory dicate that the Grits should hold Welland this year. Problem is that under Martin the Liberals have taken a definate rightward turn, which could (and maybe already has) alienated people in what is (lest we forget) Kormos's fiefdom provincially... and that under Layton the federal Dippers appear to have removed themselves from that ever-dreaded "Lib Dem status" (ie: winning the odd seat here and the odd seat there... but nowt lasting or substantial) while at the same time, the Grits are crashing and burning all over Ontario, and ominously they actually did *worse* here than their Ontario average (48% in this riding, a bit over 50% Ontario-wide) while the Dippers were almost double their Ontario average under the new Boundaries...
Note to RPW: A.S is correct; upstate NY *does* lean Republican, Almost all of Upstate NY's Congressmen, State Senators and State Rep's are GOPer's, and in 2002 Pataki won every single county in Upstate NY (with the exception of Monroe County, which was won by the Independence Party's candidate, Golisano).
09/06/04 Nick
Email: doodle@cogeco.ca
It's interesting to note that with the exception of Mulroney's 1984 almost-sweep, Welland has not elected anyone but a Liberal since the beginning of the century. With that said, unless Harper manages to win 211 seats, this riding is about as safe as a Liberal riding can be outside of Toronto.
09/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Re upstate New York: check the stats, and check the congressional delegation. There's places of Democratic strength (esp. the inner cities), but by and large it's Republican, or (at least compared to NYC) Republican *leaning*. Remember Jack Kemp? Sure, it may be a more moderate Republicanism than in the South and West--but as they say, moderate Republicans (or, more cynically, even moderate *Democrats*) are pretty much equal to ReformAllianceConservatives this side of the Falls...
04/06/04 RPW
Email: [hidden]
First off, to A.S.... Upstate New York is hardly Republican friendly... Sir or madam, I encourage you to do your homework before you post such useless babble; it is not the comment that is silly, it is the one who said it.
Now, on to why this riding will stay Liberal.
1. While the area is deemed "working class", that is actually not the case. The Welland/Ridgeway/Fort Erie/Pt. Colborne area is sustained by a variety of small businesses who thrive off of summer tourism during these months. These people aren't voting NDP.
2. Maloney is well liked, and well respected. He has deep roots in the community and is unlikely to lose those despite what failings Paul Martin has.
3. The Liberals are the bread and butter party for this area; Hudak & Kormos provincially have proven that this "seat" is definitely a keeper if you serve your constituents well. John has done that, and that will be reflected on June 28th.
4. The "Establishment" likes him; both in the Ft. Erie area and beyond, John is well liked by the wealthy folk who live in the area. And don't kids yourselves one iota, these guys have influence and they will quietly spread the word. This riding is one where the "big dogs" truly set the agenda, and that agenda is one that is infected with RED RED RED.
Bank it... Maloney for a 4th term!
02/06/04 initial
Email: [hidden]
This is a severely working-class, frankly most of the whole niagara-hamilton area is(The bridge from Burlington to Hamilton takes you into quite a different world). The Welland area in particular has been recently hard hit by alot of shutdowns, unemployment, and trasitions to cheap-lower quality non-union jobs.
This I think has had an affect, at the risk of being yelled at, or called a nutcase(I have no agenda, I'm just saying what I objectively hear)it seems to have made people more 'class-conscious'.Scoff at that term if you will, but when you talk to average people you'll hear people say things like "the liberals and the conservatives just stand for the wealthy or corporations", "you know my father always said The NDP comes at least closest to being for the people, and I guess he was right"
--the only other party that could possibly tap into that is the marxists and um, somehow I don't think they're quite in play.
other things to consider:
Provincially this riding went NDP by 50% last time(and that included support in south St. cathatrines), yes some of that has to do with Kormos being Kormos, but not all of it. There is NDP history here(mel swart), and even in 2000 the NDP still did better thatn the provincial average and Ontario support for them has recently exploded.
The fairly-small but noticeable and infuential french community was sort of bought-up by Gib Parent, while Tirabassi did something similar with the similar Italian community-none of that is present now
The federal Liberals seem to be collapsing, and were already not as popular in a place like this, association with provincial liberals does not help, and in a provincial by-election in hamilton recently the NDP slughtered everyone else with 65%
29/05/04 A,S,
Email: adma@interlog.com
By focussing on the Welland-Thorold-Port Colborne axis, Elections Canada has created a Liberal seat seemingly as odds-on safe as Niagara West-Glanbrook is Tory. However, this *is* the Niagara Peninsula, where right-wing electoral forces tend to be quite energised (almost as a spillover from Republican-friendly upstate New York). And Mel Grunstein's got name recognition as a perennial Reform/Alliance hopeful--albeit next door in Niagara Falls. Difficult to judge; the breakthrough potential a la 1984 is there, but it'd be a real hurdle to leap, as too much of Welland and Port Colborne (Niagara's blue-collar Franco-Catholic heartland) is depleted wasteland for the Tories. The big problem for the Tories (unless it leads to a fortuitous three-way split solution) is that thanks to Peter Kormos, the *NDP left* is just as much if not more of a threat here. A threat little reported on, probably because the Kormos-Swart provincial NDP machine has traditionally not stuck anything more than a token nose into the federal scene--however, the last time out in Niagara Centre, which became an open seat through Gilbert Parent's retirement, the NDP actually improved its vote to the brink of earning back its deposit, a real oddity amidst Alexa's desultory 2000 race. And notionally, the present seat *keeps* that 2000 Dipper deposit--the only such seat in Southern Ontario outside the inner cities of Toronto/Ottawa/Windsor! Could that be meaningful in 2004's tally? One to keep an eye on...
28/05/04 Ryan
Just to clarify, it is former Regional Council chair Debbie Zimmerman who is running for the Libs in a different riding, not former Mayor of Welland, Cindy Forester. I ALWAYS confuse the two.
Anyway, Maloney's main competition in this election is NDP Di Bartolomeo. Mr. Grunstein will have a tough time swaying voters in more "liberal" or "lefty" areas, like Port Colborne and Welland. Maloney should come through here, but time will tell. Remember, Gib Parent was unseated by a Conservative back in the 80's in this neck of the woods. Anything is possible...
05/05/04 Pat
Email: [hidden]
This riding will definitely go Liberal. There have been several wistful musings about an NDP win if Cindy Forster were to run. Welland voters let Cindy know what they thought of her when they didn't re-elect her as mayor, in fact she was severely trounced. And,no, she's not running for the Liberals in another riding. I will vote NDP but they have never fared well federally in this riding.
12/04/04 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
There is still a good bit of Saint Catherines added to the riding, plus Wainfleet township to creat a Tory base, but the riding leans very Liberal, that I acknowledge. A Conervative based in Welland would fare best, but would be a long-shot.
09/04/04 Nick
Email: doodle@cogeco.ca
With the conservative portions of St. Catharines removed from the new Welland riding, John Maloney will have an easy time sweeping this riding, probably taking as much as 55% of the vote.
27/03/04 Ryan
Email: [hidden]
John Maloney, who just recently won the Liberal nomination in this riding by a hefty margin to say the least, is going to continue the proud tradition of Liberal MPs in this very "Liberal" riding. The best hope would be a strong NDP candidate, but Kormos is happy in the Ontario Legislature, and Cindy Forester is running as a Liberal in a different riding. There's no Conservative and no NDP that can compete with Maloney's 10 years of experience in Parliament. This should be a safe seat for "Team Maloney," and, without question, a Liberal riding for years to come.
20/03/04 Perry
Email: [hidden]
If I were Jack Layton, I would be going all out to entice a candidate such as Peter Kormos or Cindy Forster. With either of them, this would be a definite NDP gain. As is, this is still probably the NDP best shot in the Horseshoe after Hamilton Centre.
19/03/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca

The surrounding ridings are "in play", but Welland should be safe for Tirabassi (unless Peter Kormos jumps to the federal scene, which he won't.)
Editor Note: Tirabassi lost the Liberal nomination on March 11th, came in third behind John Maloney and Greg D'Amico

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