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Windsor West

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
5:03 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
5:03 PM 6/26/2004

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Jordan Katz
Brian Masse
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Richard Pollock
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Rob Spring
Enver Villamizar

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Windsor West (100.0%)
Brian Masse

2000 Result/Résultats:
20,442 54.12%
8,694 23.02%
6,030 15.96%
2,087 5.52%
521 1.38%

Windsor West
(222/222 polls, 76770/76770 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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17/06/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
This is a 3-way race. The Tories generally do better than the NDP in this riding, leading one to wonder how Masse pulled off such a strong victory. Surely the false Star poll buoyed the Tories. There may be a bit of a sympathy vote too, with some opposition (probably Liberal) supporters repeatedly vandalizing both Fuschi's and Katz's signs with swastikas on a regular basis. Pollock strikes me as one of the holier-than-thou Liberal candidates a-la Limoges who just plays the Paul Martin-is-great & Conservatives are neanderthals platfrom as opposed ideas and/or a positive record (i.e. Susan Whelan). He seems to forget that Masse is the incumbent and that while the Tories are the national enemy, locally you have to take votes away from the NDP. Masse seems to be winning the sign war; I see few Pollock signs posted, while South Windsor is dominated by Katz. This will be an interesting race indeed. Too close to call.
16/06/04 The political advisor
Email: [hidden]
After the performance of Jack Layton in the english debate and the promess on development and manufacturing and marketing of green cars, I think it will be an easy NDP win in Windsor.
15/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
No way any NDP incumbents in Ontario are going down this time, on the contrary. When the Tories are strong, and the Liberals weak, the NDP come back in their strongholds like Windsor, Hamilton, Downtown Toronto and the North, especially with an Ontario leader! NDP 43 CPC 28 Liberal 26
14/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
One can't help smelling a fluke in that Windsor Star poll. Essex County's not altogether surprising, but for the Tories to establish a foothold within *Windsor* itself; well, that's truly the final frontier, as this has been bottom of Ontario's PC barrel for ages now, through Mulroney, through Harris. (Even if CPC might utter a told-ya-so, i.e. why shouldn't what works electorally in Oshawa *not* work in Windsor, etc.) If so, I suspect South Windsor and Roseland--kind of the city's "Don Valley West" equivalent--have a lot to answer for (and more ominously, that's where the growth is). Perhaps they voted NDP out of protest in the byelection, yet are now tempted to show truer and hitherto suppressed colours in their anti-Liberal protest vote? But I *really* suspect that the poll secretly affirms, once again, how any standing Ontario non-Liberal, be they left or right, is safe. As for the Tories--well, if winning is not in the cards, second place over the Liberals (as in the two Windsor-area ridings which weren't Herbie G's in 1984) is.
10/06/04 Joe
Email: [hidden]
This is a two way race and the no-name Conservative candidate is not one of the two. Pollock or Masse one will win. The Windsor Star hiring a former Fraser Institute researcher to do a poll that says the Conservatives have a chance does not make it so. The prediction was so lame that the editorial cartoonist made fun of it the next day by implying that pigs must be flying.
Enough said.
10/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Myabe it's some wishful thinking, but we feel the Conservative support in Windsor West is very very soft and that recent attack ads on the conservatives will help the NDP. Here's why: More affluent south Windsor withh split the vote between the Liberals and the Conservatives (the Conservatives will win out, the area is filled with blue signs for Katz). The area around the University and other lower income areas who may be honked off by the Liberals and wnat to protest vote, will be frightened by what the Liberals are saying bout the Tory's and swing to the NDP. The NDP will have to work harder but they can probably keep the Windsor area ridings.
10/06/04 T-Bone
Email: [hidden]
As the campaign goes on, I find it more difficult to predict the winner. But as I look over the comments I'm surprised by the blind comments made, in that many refer to this riding as being a Gray riding, implying that it is a sure NDP seat.
What I'm seeing and hearing now is that for sure it is not a Masse or NDP lock. In fact the local polling shows that the alliance-conservative man is leading.
What could happen in this riding is the NDP and Liberals splitting the social conscious vote and electing the first reactionary member in Windsor in 50 years.
This may be something a middle of the road Liberal will be able to tolerate, but it will certainly be a tough nut for the NDP to swallow. We should get out the blue carpet to welcome the Mulroney, Harris team.
10/06/04 T. MacKay
Email: [hidden]
The recent poll results showing the Conservatives ahead were based on a one day 70 person sample. The day after they were published the Windsor Star ran an editorial cartoon showing two farmers reading the paper showing the tories ahead, with a caption of the farmer telling his wife to check if any of the pigs have wings. The Windsor Star who published the poll has written the following in today's paper.
"Those published results were based on a sample size that will be expanded for future reporting, said pollster Lydia Miljan, a University of Windsor political science professor, providing a more accurate picture of the three Windsor area races.
"The numbers published on the front page did not represent the total sample drawn from May 23 to June 3," Miljan said. "In retrospect the front-page numbers should have reported the cumulative results rather than the last five days of the campaign."
Had all 12 days of polling been published, the results for Essex would have shown Conservatives at 36.4 per cent support, the Liberals at 23.3 per cent and the NDP with 16.5 per cent, Miljan said. In Windsor West the full results showed the NDP leading with 35.8 per cent support, the Liberals at 23.5 per cent and the Conservatives with 22.2 per cent support. And In Windsor-Tecumseh, the full results showed the NDP in the lead at 25.6 per cent, the Liberals close behind at 23 per cent and the Conservatives at 21.9 per cent."
10/06/04 Voice of Reason
Email: [hidden]
You all are putting a little too much faith into a little known polling company (Essex Polling and Research) which likely was created for this election and is run by an associate professor with a poor publishing record who is best known as a Fraser Institute pampleteer.
09/06/04 Mark R.
Email: [hidden]
The hype about the Conservatives leading in 2 of the 3 Windsor & Essex area seats in the poll is very questionable. No Conservative has won in this area for over 50 years and it's not changing this time. If people are moving away from the Liberals, they will protest by voting NDP. Whelan is in big trouble in Essex and is making noise now by asking McGuinty to apologize for his unpopular budget. The Liberals know that their campaign is in big trouble. The NDP will hold both Windsor seats including Windsor West and will knock of Ms. Whelan for a sweep of the southern-most point in Canada. Mr. Masse is well respected.
As much as I hate to say it, Jordan Katz is leading Masse in a Windsor Star poll. Richard Pollack is a distant third. Herb Gray must be shocked, but his old stomping ground is going Conservative.
07/06/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
Who would have thought it? Local polling shows "no name" Tories out front in two of three Windsor-area riding, with Joe Comartin in a tight race.
05/06/04 R.F.
Email: [hidden]
Voters in Windsor-West are still angry at Jean Chretien and the Liberal Party for the way Herb Gray was treated following his retirement.
Masse will pull this one out.
02/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Before we get jumped on by everyone, we would like to make it clear that we still firmly and strongly believe that this will be an NDP win. Masse has really earned his keep and touched base with his constituents since he was elected in that by-election. However we think it's only fair to point out that Pollock has a following too. He will fare better than Masse in more affluent South Windsor and even in the University area there is plenty of Liberal signs. Most likely put there by landlords who live in south Windsor because the houses are vacant for the summer (the remainign students are usually foreign students who don't vote...so the university area is misleading). Bottom line NDP win with a respectable Liberal showing from South Windsor voters. As for the Conservatives, I believe we saw one blue lawn sign while driving down Dougall avenue yesterday...
02/06/04 James R. Martin
Email: [hidden]
I agree that this one should definitely be shown as "in the bank" for Brian Masse.A lot of Windsor West former Liberal voters that I talk to are still sore over the treatment of Herb Grey. Add to that Adscam and the provincial budget anger, and this local isn't a race. The internals of polls that I'm studying show a transfer of about 15% of 2000 Liberal voters going N.D.P. in Ontario this time. Factor into that the local irritants cited above, plus the fact that there is no "strategic vote" advantage in favour of the Liberal in this riding.
02/06/04 Jim
Email: [hidden]
Windsor is the bedrock of the NDP. People don't always realize it but Windsor is one of North America's most union friendly cities. It is also one of Canada's most liberal cities. For sure more liberal than Hamilton, or Toronto. Both economically and socially. Not in a bleeding heart feed the homeless kind of way, but in a "workers unite!" kind of way. This is where many of Canada so called cherished social programs got their start. This is also home to argueabley the most militant and organized population in Canada. Real strikes wite blood and guts happen here regularly. Vancouver and Toronto's civil servants and champagne socialists are poseurs compared to Windsor socialists.
This riding is NDP.
29/05/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
I will go with NDP on this one because 1) I don't see the Liberals making any gains in Ontario this election. 2) The NDP are going to pull all in the stops in this campagain especially in retaining their two Windsor seats. and 3) Mr.Masse appears to be well liked in the area.
25/05/04 AdC
Email: [hidden]
i am surprised to see this riding as a tossup. this is a very union-friendly riding. a scant few vote "liberal", they used to all vote "gray". This is an NDP lock unless Layton is too frightened about the green party in BC and begins to sound too anti-industry
13/05/04 Watt Tyler
Email: [hidden]
Brian Masse has solidified his hold on this seat since his dramatic by-election win, and he would probably win this naturally NDP on the strength of his own standing in the community (people here voted for Herb Gray _not_ the Liberal Party first and foremost for 40+ years); but the NDP's numbers are up nationally and in Ontario, where it is likely that their support is heavily concentrated in places where there has been a tradition of seeing the NDP as a viable alternative to voting Liberal - places like Windsor. I think this is a lock for Masse.
12/05/04 T.M.
Email: [hidden]
This is a tough one to call. It says a lot for Mr. Masse's personal popularity if he can come from an unpopular city council at the time and win the by-election. That said, it was a very low voter turnout, fueled by many Liberals sitting on their hands if memory serves me correctly. But, he has been a quite effective and visible MP, and the NDP is polling much higher even from when he won the by-election. We'll see. Martin could play the I'm from Windsor factor, but that got Eves nowhere last year. Yes it's comparing apples and oranges, but still. I'll say NDP for now, which will be reaffirmed if Quebec goes even more in the tank and he has to campaign a lot there. If he spends a lot of time in Ontario, then this could very easily go Liberal.
11/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
Email: [hidden]
I don't expect any NDP incumbents to lose their seats. You could credit this to just another NDP by-election win, but I think the NDP's numbers are too high for them to lose any seats in Canada. (except maybe in the Atlantic) couple this with the Liberals sliding in the polls, I think Brian Masse can take this again!
21/04/04 SJM
Email: [hidden]
Monia Mazigh running in Ottawa-South has saved both Windsor seats for the NDP. Expect the NDP to do very well in Windsor West.
19/04/04 Billy Zebob
Email: [hidden]
This riding should be moved into the sure thing column for Brian Masse. He was an extremely popular city councillor prior to his significant win over Pollack in the by election. The fact that Pollack is being run again after his abysmal performance in the last round speaks volumes about what the Liberal Party really thinks their chances are in Windsor West. I expect Brian to win this riding with at least a 5000 vote margin. Joe will win too , but not by as much. The liberals have obviously written off this area, it's time for electionprediction.com to catch up. BTW, I've noticed commentary suggesting that Brian's victory was a by election protest vote. Keep in mind that the Liberals were more popular then than now + extra Liberal bleed to the Tories = big Masse win.
07/04/04 Jim
Email: [hidden]
The Paul Martin "local boy" effect is vastly overrated. He hasn't even lived in Windsor for 40 years. His boyhood home is currently rotting to the ground in Walkerville with no buyers. People don't remember Paul Martin Sr. anymore.
That being said, the unions are on a tear in Windsor at the moment, what with the Casino in its 3rd strike on 10 years, and Ford's and Chrysler's both laying off workers. The unions and going to deliver Windsor West and Windsor St. Clair to the NDP. Windsor formidable "white trash peasent" vote will deliver the victory.
30/03/04 T-Bone
Email: [hidden]
I think that the liberals will take this riding. The 2002 by-election was a protest vote on how Herb Gray was treated after 40 years. Now with Martin in charge, he will be making Windsor a top prioity in the coming election his roots are deep and strong in Windsor. Windsor needs strong voice in government and only a liberal will be able to do that. The NDP members are nice but have had little effect on Windsor and it's place in Ottawa
29/03/04 Arzie Chant
Email: achant@uwo.ca
Let's be clear, this was never a Liberal seat. It was Herb Gray's seat. When he left, we Liberals might as well have written a letter to the NDP on the order of "Dear NDP, We're tired of governing in Windsor-West. Please take it back. Your pals, The Liberal Party." It's Windsor. It's left. It's NDP.
28/03/04 MB
Email: [hidden]
Richard Pollock will take the seat from Brian Masse in Windsor west. People in Windsor are smart enough to realize that Brian Masse cannot accomplish anything for Windsor. The by-election was nothing more than a protest vote against Chretien. We know that if Paul Martin Jr. gets elected we'll get 3 bridges 4 tunnels and 2 gondola's. All the NDP can do for Windsor is write letters of protest.
29/03/04 MB
Email: [hidden]
The by-election was a protest vote against Chretien and what he did to Herb. This time people in Windsor will be smart enough to realize Masse can do nothing but write letters of protest. We need a border crossing solution and Paul Martin is a huge part of that solution. We have border security problems and huge Windsor safety issues, Pollock is a federal drug prosecutor, you do the math of what people will want in a candidate
28/03/04 J Horn
Email: [hidden]
Windsor West as with Windsor Tecumseh one must question why the NDP has this seat in the first place.
Answer: Herb Gray being badly treated and dumped from cabinet by Chrétien was a good starter. Chrétien’s unpopularity at the time didn't help either. Neither did several government announcements that were made during the bielection such as the purchase of updated Bombardier airplanes for cabinet and the anti pirate satellite moves by Sheila Copps. Additionally, bielections inherently favour opposition parties because voters who support the government have nothing on the line. The government will be there and in the majority regardless of who wins so they stay home.
New factors to consider are that Masse is now an incumbant with a record of having delivered nothing in the 2 years he has been elected. Liberals are promising tens of millions for the border and the NDP has nothing. Liberals can hint at possible cabinet spots while the NDP is still the 4th party. 600 Ford jobs were just cut at the engine plant what did the NDP members of Windsor do to prevent that??? Incumbency is a double edged sword.

Finally, a comment on Windsor politics in general. The NDP wins seats here around every ten years or so when Windsor decides to protest. However, no NDP member has ever served more then two terms and most only serve one. Windsor West was a Herb Gray riding but it is also a Pupatello riding and formerly a Bill Wrye riding. Liberals are the long run winners in Windsor the NDP is only allowed momentary glory. Time's up.
28/03/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca

I *really* can't see the NDP losing this seat. They have a popular member in Brian Masse, and with the party looking poised to increase their overall vote percentage in this province ... it's about as close to a sure win as possible.
28/03/04 Brian C.
Email: [hidden]
This was a Liberal riding and a Herb Gray riding. Paul Martin;s roots to the U.S., his plans of opening up the border back to reasonable pre-9/11 levels, and the fact that he and his father love Windsor so much will have the PM sending out all the soldiers to win back Windsor.
There is also the fact that our current NDP candidate has done NOTHING for the riding! What Windsor needs is another government MP and we wont achieve that by voting NDP again. By-elections have low turnouts and often cause strange things to happen. Buts since the incumbant has been there for long, hasn't accomplished anything significant, its the liberals to win and Martin will be going for it!
26/03/04 Mikey
Email: [hidden]
This one is staying NDP. Masse made it public that the Liberals attempted to bring him over, which doesn't say much for their faith in Pollock. Pollock also has no public profile apart from running in the previous election. With brewing local anger about Ford cutbacks, the slowdown of the Binational border panel, and continued effects of downloading, to say nothing about the disgraceful conduct of the government outlined by the recent scandals, this one is a lock.
24/03/04 Al M
Email: maghnie@uwindsor.ca
You are all correct, this was Herb Greys riding, guess what, Herb Grey was a Liberal Member. Richard Pollock had the anti liberal protest to Jean Chretian vote going on at the time, it was a by election were low voter turn happened, and voters sending a mean message to the Jean. I hate to burst your bubble, but all thats over, we now have Windsor born Paul Martin as Prime Minister, and who Windsorites love, because of the history of his father and the Martins home in Windsor. The Liberals will organize a big fight to take Windsor back, and Paul Martin will make sure that happens.
23/03/04 JRFD
Email: [hidden]
No NDP seats in Ontario are in danger, certainly not this one. (yes I know, there are only two) The only reason that the Libs had it so long before is because of Herb Grey. I mean suriously how can you vote against that guy unless you are a partisan?
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
The NDP will win both windsor ridings. It will be a battle, against Mr.Martin who was born here, but with him running in Quebec, the NDP will be able to hold on.
16/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Both of us are in agreement that though this was Herb Grey's old riding, it will go NDP this year. The rising fortunes of the NDP, particularly in Ontario, would seem to indicate that the NDP are unlikely to loose any of their current seats. As well both Windsor area NDP MPs are high profile and well known in the city. Though the Liberals will give a good fight, Herb Grey isn't there to win this for them (this riding was a Herb Grey riding, not a Liberal riding after all), and we feel it'll remain NDP.
16/03/04 atgs
Email: [hidden]
No question here - Brian Masse will be re-elected. The NDP is polling well higher in Ontario than in 2000, or even during the 2002 by-election, and Brian Masse has earned a reputation as a strong and vocal defender of his community.
16/03/04 RWA
This seat had been a Herb Gray seat, not a Liberal seat. Masse should hold on to it.

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