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Winnipeg South Centre
Winnipeg-Centre-Sud

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
2:11 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:37 PM 14/03/2004



Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

Candidates/candidats:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
N.D.P./N.P.D.:
James Allum
Parti Marijuana Party:
Andy Caisse
Communist:
Andrew Dalgliesh
Conservatives/Conservateurs:
Raj Joshi
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Anita Neville
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Ian Scott
Canadian Action canadienne:
Magnus Thompson

Population 2001
populations
77,839
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs
60407

Incumbents/Les députés:
Winnipeg South (13.5%)
Hon. Reg Alcock
Winnipeg South Centre (86.5%)
Anita Neville

2000 Result/Résultats:
Redistributed
15,992 41.96%
10,100 26.50%
6,981 18.32%
4,200 11.02%
OTHERS
843 2.21%

Winnipeg South
(28/165 polls, 8177/63345 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results
2621
1587
727
460
OTHER
36

Winnipeg South Centre
(148/176 polls, 52230/60101 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results
13371
2613
6254
9640
OTHER
807



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24/06/04 Doug
Email: [hidden]
For what it is worth, the Liberal lawn signs in this area were prevalent at the beginning but have stalled completely. The Conservatives and the NDP have both grown throughout. There is a distinct Conservative side and a distinct (and smaller) NDP side to this riding. Both Conservative and NDP camps, to me, are highly motivated. The Liberals have gone wild with their "a vote for the NDP is a vote for the Conservatives" radio ads. I believe those are aimed at this riding and, to a lesser extent, Winnipeg South. In order for the Liberals to win this riding they must get lots of votes from people who consider the Liberals to be their 2nd choice behind the NDP. Right now there is no doubt that the Conservatives have more "1st choice votes" than the Liberals.
24/06/04
Email: [hidden]
This is certainly a riding to watch! Most of the previous predictions have some validity. However, what is important to note is that this seems to be a riding where people are really thinking more about the candidates and less about the party.
Most people don't know anything about Raj or Anita (which doesn't say a lot about her four years in Ottawa), but they know and like James.
Additionally younger (and hardly apathetic) voters are responding to both the NDP and their candidate, James Allum, in this riding. The recent mayoral election in Winnipeg had a higher than usual voter turn out and the polls in many parts of Winnipeg South Centre were full of younger voters. This may have some effect on the results in this riding.
23/06/04 Winnipeg Political Observer
Email: [hidden]
I'm not certain what you're using as a basis for assessment, but calling this a Liberal seat is premature at best. Just because Axworthy held the riding with it's old boundaries is no indication that Neville can hold onto it with the new ones.
The Osborne Village area will likely split between NDP and Liberals with the Greens making a creditable showing. Riverview will probably split Conservative/Liberal, while Lord Roberts will go mainly NDP with some Liberal and Conservative support. The new part of the riding, which used to be the north part of Reg Alcock's domain, has a very Conservative tendency, although there is a possibility of strong NDP support if the last provincial election is any indication. Likewise, the area west of Kenaston (Tuxedo) with it's military families and upper income families also tend to vote Conservative. The core of Neville's support is River Heights, and that may not be enough to save the seat for her. The Mayoral election shows that Winnipeg may be taking a swing to the right, and that does not bode well for this incumbent.
20/06/04 DGJ
Email: [hidden]
In the end, Anita Neville will win this seat by a comfortable margin. Both the Conservatives and the NDP have pockets of strength in the riding but both are very weak in other areas. The Liberal Party has support throught the riding.
20/06/04 Chris
Email: christhomas@hotmail.com
A few things here, the "gronola belt" is not going to the greens in any serious way that is siponing ndp support. The ndp has been quite effective in this area of winnipeg centre and winnipeg south centre in getting the message accros about the ndp's record on the envrionment vs. the greens. For those who don't know both green peace and the sierra club have given the ndp higher marks for their environment policy in the respective organizations environment report cards. Secondly people are really not into anitta in this area, they are really ticked at the liberal corruption and need a place to park their anti-liberal vote. As many others have stated its a two way race and i will explain what i think that means. Their are are certian amount of conservatives in this area which will vote conservative. This means that they won't be voting liberal. Now their is a certian amount of static liberal support in this area that will stick with the liberals no matter what. However their is also progressive liberal support in this area that is, one fed up with the liberals and need somewhere to vote. Secondly, since it's become apparent that the conservatives aren't a factor they are confident that they can vote for the ndp without it leading to the election of a conservative. I think what it all adds up to is a tough fight on election day. I give allum the edge.
20/06/04 Old cynic in training
Email: [hidden]
Winnipeg South-Centre is too close to call.
For years, the Liberals benefited from Lloyd Axworthy's high profile and his position as Manitoba's senior minister. This area of Winnipeg also tends to have a small-l liberal mindset. But, as others mentioned, backbencher Anita Neville doesn't quite carry the same clout as Axworthy. That, combined with disgust over recent scandals, could work against her.
The Conservatives are strong contenders through a combination of a good level of bedrock support, particularly in the affluent western end of the riding, and the weakening of Liberal support. Parts of this riding have been held by provincial and federal Tory politicians in the past, which is good news for the Tories. However, Raj Joshi doesn't bring the same high profile that former provincial cabinet minister David Newman and outspoken school board trustee Betty Granger brought in the 2000 election. Also, his upper-class image may come off badly in a city that tends to prefer "everyman" politicians.
The NDP will perform strongly in the eastern half of the riding. The party is strong and well-organized in Fort Rouge and stands to benefit from the combination of a relatively strong federal leader (compared to the last two) and a popular NDP premier. But James Allum will only go over the top if the growth in NDP support in Winnipeg South Centre matches the party's growth in federal support since 2000.
20/06/04 Doug
Email: [hidden]
I am picking Conservatives in this one based upon apparent NDP gains in the northeastern part of the riding (i.e. Fort Rouge).
THIS IS NOT the Winnipeg South Centre riding formerly held by Dan McKenzie for the PCs. The old Winnipeg South Centre covered St. James-Assiniboia and Charleswood. Many pundits have made this error in analyzing Winnipeg's electoral past. They should have called it River Heights-Pembina so as not to confuse people outside Winnipeg.
14/06/04
Email:
I've lived in this area for the last forty -eight years. This is the area that voted in Dan Macenzie and Betty Granger. Anita Nevel would not step a head for Glen Murry who would have made a real difference. So Holding on for dear life might be the name of the game
11/06/04 STV
Email: [hidden]
Conservatives are going to win. In this region there is a firm base of conservative support from Tuxedo, River Heights and other areas of about 10,000 votes out of about 12-13,000 needed to win. Conservatives have national momentum and NDP and CPC have local momentum, while all Anita has going for her is a liberal support base, since she has been by most accounts an awful MP. THe NDP will steal votes from liberals, probably 1-2 thousand, but not enough. The conservatives will steal votes from liberals and even 2 thousand extra votes would do Anita in and send Raj over the top. If you do the math, the conservatives win.
11/06/04 nikki
Email: [hidden]
it'll be an exciting race in the riding. given south centre's past loyalty to lloyd axworthy, constituents are either committed to the idea of a liberal government (which i doubt) or we're committed to the idea of left-leaning liberalism. pat martin (winnipeg centre) commented at the very start of anita's career in federal politics that she, at times, resembled an ndp-er. her dedication to alleviating, or possibly eliminating, barriers to social equality make up the left-leaning part. her commitment to human rights, and the political freedom of all individuals constitutes her liberalism.
06/06/04 Rich Thurston
Email: [hidden]
Despite Neville not being a particularly strong MP, I feel she'll still manage to hold onto her seat.
James Allum should garner significant support from the Lord Roberts/Fort Rouge areas while Raj Joshi will be strong in Tuxedo.
However, with NDP support non existant in Tuxedo and minimal Joshi support in Fort Rouge/Lord Roberts, this should allow Neville, who'll garner solid support from all parts of the riding, to slide through the middle and retain.
06/06/04
Email: [hidden]
I know that signs are really no indication of how the area is going to vote overall, however, especially now with the sign by-law preventing signs on boulevards, I do think that they are an indication of momentum. As many of the other submissions have stated, Neville has made no impression on voters in this riding, leaving it open for someone to come in and really sell their ideas. So far, James Allum has all the momentum in terms of visibility from signage. I have also had the chance to hear him speak at a debate held at a local high school. He is significantly more persuasive and engaging than any of the other candidates. I think that he has a strong chance of coming out in front if there are no (more) surprises/screw-ups from the leader.
06/06/04 Winnipeg Political Observer
Email: [hidden]
As a resident of the riding, Winnipeg South Centre is too close to call right now.
Redistribution has been kinder to some candidates than others, but not in this case. This riding includes areas where the vote on the left will be fractured, such as Osborne Village, Lord Roberts and Wolsley. As well, both the NDP and Conservative parties have fielded very credible candidates.
An X factor to consider is that there are a lot of Federal civil servants who live in this riding. Two things may drive them either to not vote at all or vote for anyone but the Liberals. Firstly, they've had salary reclasifications and staffing competitions that were in progress frozen between December and April. Even now, these things have either been killed or put on indefinite suspension depending on the department.
Secondly, Reg Alcock made it quite clear that they have the prospect of Program Review, the sequel, hanging over their heads. Ask anyone who works, or has worked, for the Federal Government about program review. Be prepared to spend a couple of hours with them. This does not bring great joy to people who find their livelyhoods can be eliminated for the sake of optics or political expediency, by people who don't have the faintest clue about what it is that they do and can't be bothered to find out before swinging the axe.
The best way to describe it: Your current job had changed over the years to have greater responsibility. Your direct supervisor had acknowledged the fact and had submitted a case to their boss to reclassify your job to reflect this (with the attendent pay increase). The case had been approved by the local manager. Then you get told in a company wide e-mail that the Vice President of Finance and CEO have decided that any such actions that had not already taken place by the time of this e-mail (even if it was sitting in Human Resources only waiting for a signature) were hereby frozen. Oh and by the way, we're going to bring it a bunch of consultants to let us know how we can leverage greater efficiencies....
Of all of the candidates, Anita Neville was the last one out of the blocks which may be an indication that her organizers thought it was a safe seat. Of all candidates, she would have been best placed to know that the writ was being dropped. It took almost 2 weeks for her people to start calling people they had originally contacted about volunteering back in April when it was first thought the election would be called. The other candidates had literature out long before I saw anything of hers. Now it seems like her people are in scramble mode, which tells me that it's not a seat that can be taken for granted.
25/05/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
This riding has always been an easy win for the Liberal Party for decades, but living in this riding, and talking to people I belive that the Liberals will be in for a tough fight to reelect Anitia Neville this time around. Neville has been a lackluster MP, both on the national stage where she has done little of any note during her 4 years in Ottawa and even as a constiuency MP she has been rather invisible to the community, focusing on the local Jewish couminity, but not making inroads among the other various groups in the riding. Also the change in boundaries adds in a great deal of Fort Gary, an area of the city that Ms. Nevillle did not represent as a school trustee, thus combined with her invisabilty as an MP really takes away any name recoginition atvantage that she may have had. The Conservatives are running a strong candidate of East Indian desent that will ellimanate any backlash from Betty Grangers 2000 comments and if James Allum and the NDP can make it clear to voters that the Liberal party under Paul Martin is not the left of centre Liberal Party that former area MP Lloyd Axworthy represented and gets those left of centre votes to abadon Neville than the race could be a tight three way fight between Neville, Allum and Joshi, with the overall strength of the national leaders and campaigns really determining who walks away with the win.
But overall, the fact that this riding is not an easy win for the Liberals, says a lot about Neville and what she has not been doing as an MP.
25/05/04 Rob
Email: [hidden]
This is a strong Liberal Riding. However, Anita Neville is no Lloyd Axworthy. This is a riding that any of the NDP, Conservatives or Liberals could conceivably win. Due to the granola belt element in the riding, I expect the Green Party will siphon off enough NDP votes to ensure them a third place finish. That leaves the Conservatives and the Liberals. History will dicate that the Liberals will hold on, and my gut tells me that they'll hold on to this one. However, the numbers look very promising for a Conservative upset here, hence my decision to make it too close to call. This result will depend on how badly the residents of the riding want change on June 28th. The result here should be a lot clearer after the leaders debate. Until then, it's just too close to call.
25/05/04 PB
Email: [hidden]
I grew up in this riding and still visit often. How many NDPers in River Heights? Well, my folks, for starters, and they're not the only NDP sign location on their block. That said, what would the NDP need to actually carry this seat? A very weak Liberal candidate (check), a very strong CPC campaign (um...) and a very strong NDP candidate (er...) I don't think it's quite there for the NDP yet, a more likely (maybe less unlikely) scenario would be that the NDP bleeds off enough Liberal support to let the CPC sneak up the middle. Still, given the gap from last time, the most likely scenario has this staying Liberal. But this one ain't in the bag yet...
23/05/04 The Hack
Email: threeoheightseats@hotmail.com
I've switched. Two months ago I wasn't sure which way this riding was going, but today I feel confident that Raj Joshi will win it. ***Biases stated early: I've done a little work for Raj doorknocking and will be helping him this campaign. End biases.***
1)I said in March that most average Winnipeggers don't think that highly of Neville. At best, they have no opinion of her, good or bad. Not much of an incumbants record. Well that's still very much the case. You hear it at the doorstep, plus there's a chunk of new areas that used to be under Reg Alcock's riding and people are surprised when told tell aren't anymore and indicate that that changes their position to undecided.
2)The votes add up for the Conservatives. Sure, you meet a handful of people that don't like the merge, but truthfully, they are few and far between and most say that they are going to watch the campaign to decide. Now, for every PC voter that goes Liberal, there seems to be more staying with the new party and you know having a clear alternative will swing some Liberals.
3) Said it before and I'll say it again, 2004, by election day, was a good year to be a Liberal. That in and of itself is worth at least 1000 votes that aren't guarentee Liberal this time. National momentum is going to play a role here.
4) Raj Joshi is a local boy that grew up in the riding, but he's East Indian descent. That kills any chance of the Liberals playing the race issue as a scare card in this riding, and that happened in 2000 after Betty Granger said "Asian Invasion".
5) A large bloc of Winnipeg South Centre voters think of themselves as sophisticates and big world thinks. Lloyd Axworthy fits that bill to a tee, and they took pride in that. Anita Neville is a nice lady, but she's blended into the background of the Liberal caucus, and isn't really destined for more than that. Joshi has a strong international background thru his studies, his employment and is travels. That will have good appeal to those voters and when it's already a close race, that extra pocket of 500 voters makes a difference.
6) This is a riding where Jack Layton WILL have appeal and the NDP are going to be campaigning hard in this riding. I don't believe they will be able to take enough of the vote to win the riding, but they will also take vote away from Neville and the Liberals.
All in all, this riding just seems set for an upset. The fact that the media are ignoring it only helps Raj Joshi because everyone is expect Neville to easily hold the seat and by mid-way thru the campaign when it is seen as a horse-race, the "momentum" stories will be away from Neville and towards James Allum and Raj Joshi.
23/05/04 The Sausage Factory
Email: [hidden]
Insane? Indeed. First, a point of clarification. James Allum did not work for Glen Murray, although he has been a City of Winnipeg employee for a number of years. There's a big difference. Second, a point on credentials. I am a firmly lapsed but very sane and happily recovering former longtime Trudeau Liberal. Third, the previous, along with Jacob's earlier, contribution is classic head in the sand, arrogant Liberal attitude that has driven many people like me away. This is one of the most volatile elections in recent memory. Politics is making bizarre bedfellows. Look at the picture in the May 22 Free Press of Kevin Lamoureux, a Liberal MLA and longtime federal wannabe, standing behind Mayoral candidate MaryAnn Mihychuk, just resigned NDP Cabinet Minister. Then there's former Tory PM Joe Clark supporting Liberal candidate Scott Brison. In this atmosphere to say "the land of Axworthy, Carstairs and Gerrard is [not] ...going anything but Liberal" is startlingly ignorant, but not unexpected from said arrogant Grits. I would not presume that supporters of Trudeau/Chretien red Liberals like Axworthy, Carstairs, and Gerrard will necessarily support the Martinites.
19/05/04
Email:
Are you insane? Winnipeg South Centre going NDP? How many people in River Heights and Tuxedo will vote NDP. True the NDP will get some votes in Lord Roberts and Fort Rouge, but Anita will be a close second in those polls. James Allum, whose claim to fame is that he used to work for Mayor Glen Murray, before His Worship decided to make a run in Charleswood for the Liberals, will be under 10% in the majority of the riding. Anita wins this in a landslide and the fight will be for second place.
19/05/04 The Sausage Factory
Email: [hidden]
As the last couple of submissions have attested, James Allum and the NDP are primed for victory here. The incumbant's low profile and inability to inspire, the Liberals' poor record, scandals and offer of "same old same old", the NDP's progressive appeal and James' dedication and hard work in the community will combine for a well-deserved victory.
16/05/04
Email: [hidden]
This is a two way race only and it is between the NDP and the Liberals, and personally the NDP have my vote. I voted for Axworthy and he used to win this riding with 25,000 votes. Last election Neville got just over half that vote and that was when it was great to be a liberal (as someone else said earlier on), and it is widely accepted that she has been the most inactive incumbents since the days of Dan Mackenzie (crazy Tory guy out in the west of the city in the 80's). Worse than being hated she is simply not know by the vast majority of her constituents, she really does not have an incumbent advantage and especially not in Fort Garry. I got NDP literature in my mailbox a month ago talking about the boundary changes and the local MLA and the NDP guy was out to my door last week. It really seems that they are working hard to hold the NDP voters down here. The Conservatives are running a no- body who seems to have been out of the country for the past ten years and apparently came home to run for parliament. He might hold some vote in tuxedo and some of the old Joy Smith vote but he's coming in third.
12/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
Email: [hidden]
I expect a close race here between the NDP and the Liberals. Just think, the Liberals are sliding, and without an important incumbent they may not be able to win this riding. This riding also has a strong base of NDP voters to boos them up, and the NDP has shot up in the polls lately, especially in the prairies. Not to mention a well respected NDP provincial government in Manitoba. However there is still a large amount of votes to gain for the NDP and that is their biggest problem. Also, the Conservatives might end up being the dark horse in this riding.
27/04/04 Political Scientist
Email: [hidden]
The NDP actually has all the momentum in this riding. Not only do they hold three provincial seats - Lord Roberts, Fort Rouge and Fort Garry -within the federal riding but I've seen the NDP candidate, James Allum, in action and he is a dynamic speaker with really impressive credentials who has a reputation for getting things done (which is a lot different from the current MP who no one has seen in four years). Another thing to consider is that Allum was the candidate last time and the NDP got 20% of the vote even though the party didn't do all that well across Canada. Based on the NDP candidate Allum, the dismal performance of the incumbent, and how things went last time I think the NDP is defintely going to win this time around.
01/04/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
While it may look like this riding is not easy to win, I would argue it is. Historically Liberal, the second place finisher here was a PC candidate. While some experts expect the old PC voters to break 2-to-1 to the CPC, that still leaves a good third of the old PC vote for the Liberal Party. This should be enough to top the liberals up, they will in this riding.
31/03/04 Jacob
Email:
This is the land of Axworthy, Carstairs and Gerrard. No way is this going anything but Liberal. If Anita Neville loses this seat, the Liberals are going to go down in a Kim Campbell style defeat. One of the safest Liberal seats in Western Canada!
19/03/04 The Hack
Email: threeoheightseats@hotmail.com
This seat isn't *that* easy to predict just yet. Here's why:
1)Most average Winnipeggers don't think that highly of Anita. At best, they have no opinion of her, good or bad. Not much of an incumbants record.
2)In 2000, the PC candidate came within 3500 votes of Anita.
3)Some context is required for that election: This was the riding of Betty "Asian Invasion" Granger, and she pulled out, which likely factored into the PC vote (though there was still some residual Alliance vote). That also likely sent some votes to Anita.
4)Most people will tell you that 2000 was a good year to be a Liberal and a bad year to be in the right. 2004 won't fit that description.
5)Redistribution takes away some typically left-leaning areas and adds some right-leaning areas.
This is definately a riding in play. My prediction will come once the election is on.
18/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Another safe Liberal seat. NDP are not popular enough here and a combined right wing vote would not have been enough to knock off Anita Neville in 2000, and that was when she was not an incumbant.
01/03/04 Patrick Webber
Email:
The voters in Lloyd Axworty's old stomping ground will handily re-elect the Liberal incumbent. Don't expect any surprises here on election night.


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