Election Prediction Project
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Calgary South Centre

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

12:01 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
2:49 AM 17/03/2004

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Canadian Action canadienne:
Trevor Grover
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Phillip Liesemer
Keith Purdy
Lee Richardson
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Julia Turnbull

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Calgary Centre (60.6%)
Rt. Hon Joe Clark
Calgary Southwest (6.5%)
Stephen Harper
Calgary West (32.9%)
Rob Anders

2000 Result/Résultats:
23,076 44.88%
18,510 36.00%
6,790 13.20%
1,767 3.44%
1,278 2.49%

Calgary Centre
(141/263 polls, 56443/100814 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Calgary Southwest
(20/217 polls, 6053/84629 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Calgary West
(88/261 polls, 30650/98988 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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23/06/04 Young Cnd
Email: joshuafraser2003@yahoo.ca
I think Julia has a great shot... This is a large urban riding, like many others in Canada, very diverse community that traditionally does not support social conservatives such as Lee Richardson. Lee Richardson won't come out of the closet on the important social issues that matter to the residents in this riding. She also has the backing of the strong gay rights lobby that elected Joe Clark in the same area.
21/06/04 Pat P
Email: [hidden]
Just came from a candidates debate held at Mount Royal College. Judging from the applause for style and effort, the Canadian Action fellow won the debate. Julia and Lee spent the whole time slagging each other. Keith read from prepared script. Green fellow quiet.
Upshot? Even being held at a post-secondary institution, Conservative supporters noiser and look to have outnumbered other party supporters in audience. Suggests that, for this riding anyway, voters have basically decided, regardless of debate/tv adverts etc.
Could be larger than expected "protest" vote (especially with Canadian Action and Green candidates openly running for the new federal funding instead of towards forming gov policy).
07/06/04 P. Schultz
Email: [hidden]
Conservatives should win fairly easily. I live in this riding, and am a member of the NDP, however I just can't see the Liberals or NDP taking this riding. Lee Richardson isn't known as a crazy right-wing wacko and that should help him get old PC votes. The Liberals will get more votes then last time around, but not nearly enough to win this seat.
01/06/04 Jeff
Email: progressiveconservative@hotmail.com
This will be an easy CPC win. The Tories are running a moderate in Lee Richardson and red torys are not scared by his views on social issues. Turnball is such a weak candidate that the Libs did everything in their power to find a different candidate (Duerr, Bronconier, King, Arden, Peplinski, Silverberg, Jackson...). Unable to get anyone to accept their offer they finally appointed Turnball just a few days before the writ was dropped. Despite having a respectable number of volunteers out at the local Lilac Festival on Sunday, which conveniently ran right passed Richardson's campaign office, the response to her candidacy was poor at best. Richardson will take 60%.
25/05/04 MOB
Email: [hidden]
I live in the riding and disagree with Richard's assessment. The redrawing of this riding has had an effect on its political composition. Had the riding not been redrawn, I believe the liberals may have had a shot at it. But the inclusion of small parts of Calgary Southwest and Calgary West make it a far more conservative riding. Areas like Belair/Mayfair and Garrison Woods are hardly blue collar liberal areas. Tory hold.
25/05/04 MOB
Email: [hidden]
If sign count were any indication of how people are going to vote, Turnbull (the Liberal) would win. Perhaps the Conservative voters in the riding are so certain of victory they don't need to place a tacky sign on their lawn. Tory hold.
This urban Calgary riding will also go to the Conservatives, but it will probably be one of their closest wins in Calagry. The reasons:
1) The Conservatives do not have an incumbent candidate.
2) Some of the strongest Liberal polling divisions in Calgary occur in this riding.
3) There is some question as to how much of Joe Clark's old vote will go to the new Conservative candidate.
Nevertheless, I still predict a decent win by the Conservatives here, say by about a 5 to 7% margin.
23/05/04 Richard A. E.
Email: [hidden]
There is a strong anti-Conservative sentiment in this riding, and Julia Turnbull appears to be gaining a fair amount of momentum as a result. Many in the riding wish to demonstrate that this area is fundamentally different from the rest of Calgary, especially given its diversity of lifestyles. The Gay and Gay-Supportive vote cannot be underestimated in this area and although this a large amount of respect for Keith Purdy, most in the riding will want to send a message with their vote by casting a ballot for a potential winner instead of a fringe candidate.
16/05/04 Vaughn
Email: [hidden]
The anti-Alliance vote seems to be able to line up behind one candidate in this area, Prentice is probably too strong in North-Centre, but South Centre is probably the best Liberal chance in Calgary ever with Joe Clark retiring.
12/05/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Even with the full support of Joe Clark, or even if Clark ran himself as a Liberal, the CPC just wont lose this riding. The support for "blue" parties averages 60 to 70% in calgary. Expect a huge win for the CPC candidate... whoever that is.
01/04/04 MOB
Email: [hidden]
The notion that Keith Purdy would get anywhere near winning this seat is risible. This will be a solid Conservative hold. It is a wealty riding, and the addition of polls from Calgary West and Southwest make it a safe Tory seat. In addition, the local liberal party is getting orders from on high in the Liberal party to stall the nomination vote.
31/03/04 Don M
Email: [hidden]
Not that it'll be enough to beat the Conservatives, but the NDP candidate, Keith Purdy, was the force behind organizing the left-leaning vote in Calgary-Centre around Joe Clark last election. There may be some degree of "returning the favour" among the old-time PCs.
16/03/04 RWA
The Libs will need to get pretty much all of Clark's 2000 support to take this riding, and keep any support from draining to the NDP while they're at it. Don't count on it. Lee Richardson takes this one for the Tories.

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