Election Prediction Project
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Newton-North Delta

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
10:35 AM 6/23/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
10:35 AM 6/23/2004

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Nancy Clegg
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Sukh Dhaliwal
Gurmant Grewal
Green Party/Parti Vert:
John Hague
Nazir Rizvi

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Delta-South Richmond (53.8%)
John Cummins
Surrey Central (46.2%)
Gurmant Grewal

2000 Result/Résultats:
18,107 51.16%
12,484 35.27%
2,141 6.05%
2,037 5.75%
627 1.77%

Delta-South Richmond
(93/235 polls, 31922/82670 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Surrey Central
(71/241 polls, 27465/97276 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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12/06/04 Old Political Hack
Email: [hidden]
Gurmant Grewal will win this riding in a landslide. Surrey and the Fraser Valley are traditional conservative strongholds. Grewal is widely regarded as the most accessible, hardworking, community minded MP in Canada. He has a reputation for going above and beyond the call of duty for all his constituents. Add that to Grewal's personal popularity and the fact that he has the most brilliant political mind in the country today (Rachel Marsden - who trained and worked under Bush's brain Karl Rove) on his team. Desperate and pathetic personal attacks on both Grewal and Marsden and Grewal's wife running in Fleetwood haven't stuck and won't stick. The Newton-North Delta conservative machine is rolling full steam ahead and Sukh Dhaliwal is going to lose badly and will never be able to show his face in this community again. Then Sukh can go back to taking bribes from Surrey developers and paying off the Surrey Mayor and Councillors to get them to vote in favour of rezoning various property to the developers' liking.
05/06/04 lokey
Email: [hidden]
Gurmant Grewal is doing VERY strongly, i dont know why people would even think he has the smallest chance of losing, with the new conservative party being more popular, and the disliking for the Liberals, and the NDP being to out of touch. Gurmant will win, by a huge margin, over 50%
02/06/04 Al
Email: [hidden]
Gurmant has no "popularity" in either Delta nor Newton. People in Newton I talk to have nothing but disdain for him. He won his previous ridings by default. Anyone with a Reform/Alliance affilliation would have been elected here. Now people are saying that when they went to his office to get help, that he never helped them.
I have heard that some of the people that he did in fact help with immigration matters are now serving on his campaign. Perhaps Rachel Marsden was too busy using the computer for other purposes than assisting constituents.
The "incumbency" effect in the larger Delta side is also non-existent. The only previous experience that they have of Grewal is his unsuccessful attempt to win the LIBERAL nomination in 1996 and his subsequent 3rd-place disaster of a campaign for the BC Reform Party.
In fact, driving through the riding, I see at least 5 signs for the Liberal candidate Sukh Dhaliwal for ever one NDP or Conservative.
I feel strongly that the Liberals will pick this one up. Sukh is well known and has the Mayor of Surrey and a popular Delta Councillor supporting him in newspaper ads throughout the area.
28/05/04 Tiffany
Email: [hidden]
My question is why does Nina Grewal have her signs all around Newton when her riding is Fleetwood-Port Kells? Is it a Grewal tactict to have double the signs or what? I personally am annoyed with her face being all over the wrong riding.
19/05/04 D. Johnson
Email: [hidden]
In response to "Lokey" - not sure where the "popularity" of Mr. Grewal comes into play. First, 60% of the riding is now in North Delta, an area where all the candidates, including Mr. Grewal, are unknown. Second, Mr. Grewal has been battered again by the press, this time over the hiring of Rachel Marsden as an assistant in his office.
In response to the "political scientist" - this point is well taken, it is entirely possible that Mr. Grewal is sitting in 3rd place. The 2 Surrey ridings where the NDP could indeed surprise are Surrey North and Newton - North Delta. Remember, under the former Provincial NDP Government, three cabinet ministers hailed from Surrey. There is a strong NDP base which could push the NDP candidate in Surrey North ahead of Jasbir Cheema and Chuck Cadman who are fighting for the center-right. However, I still think that Cadman is the favourite and now that he has been diagnosed with cancer, there is the sympathy factor.
My sense is that Newton-North Delta is still too close to call but I think that Mr. Grewal is in trouble and may be starting to fade. On election night, either Sukh Dhaliwal (Liberal) or Nancy Clegg (NDP) will likely be crowned the new MP.
15/05/04 political scientist
Email: [hidden]
I think you folks should consider the NDP candidate for this riding. recent polling in Globe and Mail suggested the surrey ridings are split three ways. Is it not possible that the CPC and Libs will split their traditional voter base, leaving Nancy Clegg with a potential win in this riding.
12/05/04 Lokey
Email: [hidden]
Grewal is gonna win, he is surrounded by Conservative ridings and will play a huge role in the North Surrey riding too, Gurmant is however a little to right winged for the people here, but he is a good person, he will get the seat because he beleves in what he speaks which some people find very inspiring. The local publicity he is getting is really hurting him much, ive talked to people and everyone ive talked to says he is gonna win big, i agree. He has never lost and has to much popularity to stop winning.
03/05/04 Ed Grey
Email: [hidden]
This one is simply too close to call. The edge would normally be with the CPC, but the demographics of Surrey continue to change and it is becoming a more progressive community. Further, people should not underestimate the impact of the negative community reaction to Germant Grewal manipulating the nomination process in favour of his wife in Fleetwood - Port Kells. The optics of Germant Grewal being a university classmate of Jasbir Cheema, who signed up 1,500 members to unseat popular CPC incumbant Chuck Cadman in Surrey North, have not played out well in the local press for Germant Grewal. Why the local CPC has self-destructed in this manner is strange. They are clearly going to have to rely on national trends to carry some normally safe Surrey seats. While Sukh Dhaliwal is definitely lesser known, he is not fighting any negatives at this point. Put this riding in the "too-close-to-call" column and watch the fireworks on election night.
15/04/04 Scott G.
Email: [hidden]
Grewal is an incumbent right-wing-party opposition MP in a new riding based on ridings that have long gone to right-wing parties. Dhaliwal may be very good at organizing people in the Sikh community (which is Grewal's community too), but most voters here are inclined to vote for a right-wing party, and not for the governing Liberal party, regardless of who the candidate is for either party. And Grewal's is the more familiar name.
The numbers associated with the Liberals are impressive. 18,000 members in the riding, 6200 of whom came to the nomination meeting. But in the wake of revelations / allegations about Liberal Party practices in other ridings (long-serving left-wing MPs ousted by Martin loyalists, family pets joining the party, and a candidate allegedly offering to pay for a person's membership in contravention of federal election laws), this huge signup will convince many voters that the Liberals are using underhanded tactics in this riding. Just as when you look at everything Paul Martin's supporters did to ensure his election as Liberal leader, you wonder why they went to such lengths, when victory was so likely anyway. Past a certain point, it looks less like you're engaging in fair competition against strong and equally unscrupulous opponents, and more like you want to maintain a stranglehold over the political process.
I'm not making an accusation against any ethnic group. It should go without saying that there is nothing wrong about Sikhs encouraging other Sikhs to join a political party, and if they make up a majority of the riding's members, that just shows that they're more motivated than anyone else. I'm talking here about the Paul Martin faction of the Liberals, which seems determined not just to defeat its opponents but to crush them as well.
05/04/04 Surrey Jack
Email: [hidden]
This riding is easily conservative. Although Gurmant is a conservative, he has widespread support among the Sikhs, who generally tend to be liberal. And the number of 18,000 members in the Liberal Riding associating is misleading since MANY of them are "immigrants" not "citizens". They could vote in the nomination meetings, but they can't vote come election time.
29/03/04 Objective Observer
Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca
An article entitled "Newton-North Delta a Liberal Record" was published in the Monday, March 29, 2004 edition of the Vancouver Sun regarding the Liberal nomination meeting.
Apparently, this riding has 18,000 Liberal members of which about one-third turned out for the nomination meeting, making this the largest membership of any riding, of any party, in the country.
If the Liberals can increase the approximate 28% federal vote they received in B.C. during 2000 to the low to mid 30's, the Liberals will likely be able to move beyond their current city holdings into other near urban areas, and this could be a very competitive race.
29/03/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
Yes, I am about predict a Liberal win...... Sukh Dhaliwal won the nomination - a BC Martinite (and I suspect a likely cabinet member)
Why you ask? 18 000 Liberal party members. Dhaliwal has proven himself a guy that can moblise people to come out and vote and be active.
Though, I will note that he organised SET in the Surrey elections but then did not win a seat himself because he annoyed part of the indo-Canadian community (I do not think it was a table and chairs issue)
I am not certain if Germant Grewal is running here or if his wife is, but both of them are strong campaigners. This is going to be a big battle in any case.
28/03/04 Honest Guy
The riding has been redistributed and the some Conservative sections are gone. It won't matter because Grewal will still win. His strength is that there is appeal from all demographics. Every election he is rumoured to lose but every election he wins with a fantastic majority. Grewal has a well organized team. He is the only Surrey incumbment to be nominated again. The CPC attracted 5 possibe candidates. The Libs are no where near.
End of the day this is CPC.
28/03/04 David
Email: [hidden]
This isn't the riding where Nina Grewal is facing former BC Minister Gulzar Cheema, this is where her husband - current MP Gurmat Grewal will wipe the floor with the competition.
26/03/04 Brandon L
Email: [hidden]
Keeping in mind that federal Liberals simply don't win in this part of the world, I can't see how they could take this while mired in scandal. It might be closer than the past, but it will in all likelyhood stay Conservative.
23/03/04 Jacob
Email: [hidden]
This race is interesting. It pits Gurmant Grewal's wife against popular provincial Minister Gulzar Cheema. Early indications I get is that the Indo-Canadian community is solidly behind Cheema, giving the Grits a rare pick up in western Canada.
20/03/04 Objective Observer
Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca
This new riding has been carved out of Delta-South Richmond (the community of North Delta) and the western portion of Surrey Centre (Newton). The CPC is likely to see a decrease in its 2000 vote while the Liberals will likely see an increase which may make this riding competitive. After the election has been called provincial polling trends should be able to provide a better picture.
16/03/04 P. Kelly
Email: [hidden]
Liberals will gain this from the conservatives. Conservatives are well belonw their 2000 support level. This is one of the few gains for the Liberals in BC

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