Projet D'Élection Prévision
www.electionprediction.com
Vancouver Kingsway
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale
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Update/Mise à jour: 12:53 PM 6/26/2004 
Prediction Changed La prévision a changé 1:00 PM 6/26/2004 |
Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription
Candidates/candidats:
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(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
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Liberal Party/Parti libéral: David Emerson | ||||||
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Conservatives/Conservateurs: Jesse Johl | ||||||
| Independent: Jeannie Kwan | |||||||
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Communist: Jason Mann | ||||||
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Green Party/Parti Vert: Tracey Jastinder Mann | ||||||
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Marxist-Leninist: Donna Petersen | ||||||
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Canadian Action canadienne: Jacob Rempel | ||||||
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N.D.P./N.P.D.: Ian Waddell | ||||||
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Incumbents/Les députés: | |||||||
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Vancouver East (1.5%) Libby Davies | ||||||
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Vancouver Kingsway (90.9%) Sophia Leung | ||||||
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Vancouver Quadra (7.6%) Hon. Stephen Owen | ||||||
2000 Result/Résultats:
| Redistributed | ||
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15,777 | 43.23% |
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10,580 | 28.99% |
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5,808 | 15.91% |
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1,891 | 5.18% |
| 2,441 | 6.69% | |
Vancouver East (3/191 polls, 973/71791 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 197 | |
| 89 | |
| 182 | |
| 30 | |
| 23 | ||
Vancouver Kingsway (165/190 polls, 60053/67302 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 14230 | |
| 9645 | |
| 5336 | |
| 1613 | |
| 2250 | ||
Vancouver Quadra (18/232 polls, 5042/78359 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 1350 | |
| 846 | |
| 290 | |
| 248 | |
| 168 | ||
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24/06/04 | Julian Lun Email: [hidden] | |
| The local polls show Waddell well in front, with Emerson struggling not to end third, and strategic voting arguments can easily be used by the NDP in its favour in this ridings, so even if some easily frightened NDP voters shift, it will not be enough to stop Waddell from returning to Ottawa. | |||
| 23/06/04 | Jason Ng Email: jason_ng12345@hotmail.com | ||
| This looks like a close race between Emerson and Waddell, with Johl close behind. I live on the east side of the riding, and I've seen about the same number of Emerson and Johl signs, more than Waddell's signs in the area but not by a lot. Although the large immigrant population may be starting to switch over to the Conservatives, there should be enough supporters for the Liberals to make it a close race. | |||
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23/06/04 | Aric Houlihan Email: arichoulihan@rogers.com | |
| Well since the time for predictions is running out, it is time to make another one here that the NDP's Ian Waddell is going to win here. The internal NDP poll released recently shows that Waddell has about a 35 point lead, so unless the reliability of this poll is way off, Waddell should be elected here on June 28. Vancouver-Kingsway: Ian Waddell (NDP) 53.9% Jesse Johl (Con) 19.8% David Emerson (Lib) 17.0% Tracey Mann (GN) 8.6% | |||
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23/06/04 | Conservative Boy Email: [hidden] | |
| Although I'm a Tory supporter I just don't see them winning Kingsway. I think that Johl will run a distant 3rd here and most Tories I've spoken to agree. Johl seems like a nice fellow but he just doesn't have the depth of either Emerson or Waddell. Furthermore, I don't sense the national momentum for the Tories is sufficient to make the eastern part of the riding switch from their traditional NDP/Liberal voting pattern. Unfortunately, for Emerson the resurgence of the NDP provincially and the lower income profile of the eastern part of the riding create significant challenges. Also, Waddell is well regarded and was not closely associated with either the fast ferry fiasco or fudgit budget of the Glen Clark era. In the event of a Tory minority I'm sure Emerson would consider the loss a blessing. As Trudeau used to say, "an MP is a nobody 50 feet from parliament hill". Given his significant previous accomplishments I'm sure Emerson doesn't want to be a nobody. Sadly, you can mark this riding as a win for the NDP | |||
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23/06/04 | MTM Email: [hidden] | |
| The Mustel group gives Waddell a big lead, even if there's some slippage, he's probably got more than enough now to win it | |||
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22/06/04 | Johl Supporter Email: [hidden] | |
| I've been walking around the riding, talking to people with Jesse Johl, and we've been getting some very positive feedback from people. I really think that all the NDP and Liberal lawn signs we see in this riding are not a true indicator of the support base. People are very impressed with the fact that Mr. Johl is the only canidate who actually lives in the riding; he has all his life -- he's a part of the community. This will be a close race between the NDP and the Conservatives, with Jesse Johl pulling off an upset victory. | |||
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21/06/04 | Distant Observer Email: [hidden] | |
| Again, time to move this one over to the NDP side. The Stategic Communication internal poll numbers put this one out of reach for the Conservatives and (no doubt the reason it was released) as a real disaster for the Liberals. Waddell's 53% gives him a huge lead on both Johl and Emerson (19 and 17% respectively) and should be returning to Ottawa with a huge show of support. | |||
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21/06/04 | Pepsi Email: [hidden] | |
| This one will be close, but not as close some of the other ridings...East with Libby and Shirley Chan will be MUCH closer perhaps. This one will come down to who gets the vote out the most on election day, not the person with the biggest lawn signs. Emerson will hold the riding for the Liberals | |||
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20/06/04 | Lucas T.d.S. Email: [hidden] | |
| I don't live in this riding any more but I did for 10 years. I think that the person who said that "there are too small a number of angry white men in this riding for the Tories to pull much" has half of the statement correct. Yes, this is a heavily immigrant riding. Yes, the Chinese vote is important. But, as The Vancouver Sun pointed out the other day, the Conservatives, after changing immigration policy and integration policy, are beginning to pick up a lot of attention in the immigrant community. Their leader's socially conservative views are also gaining a lot of positive feedback from new immigrants who do not believe in things such as gay marriage and abortion. Jesse Johl has been campaigning hard in this riding. He has gone door-to-door, he has worked SkyTrain stations, and he has been advertising in the Courier for the last year (it was funny to watch the tagline on his ad change from 'Your Canadian Alliance Candidate' to 'Your Conservative Candidate'). His tactics have obviously built momentum: he is picked by his party to be one of the few city candidates to have a shot at winning. And I think he will make a big dent in the vote. He is not an "angry white man." Actually, he seems to be of South Asian descent (from appearances, I don't actually know). So that should reflect well with the immigrant community. But as someone below noted, David Emerson has a lot of organization in that community already. The Liberals have traditionally held that vote and this has been a Liberal seat for years. I don't expect that to change. From the looks of things, the NDP supporters have been postering this page (and this whole site) with excited predictions that their party will win. Driving around the riding, there are a lot of Emerson signs, a lot of Waddel signs and an increasing number of Johl signs. But I think the vote will go with Emerson. | |||
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20/06/04 | Russil Wvong Email: russilwvong@yahoo.com | |
| Earlier I thought this would be a three-way race, but a poll published in the Globe and Mail about a week ago found that for Vancouver as a whole, the Liberals have a slight lead on the NDP (something like 36% to 34%), with the Conservatives well behind (something like 22%). Plus it turns out that outside my neighbourhood (Main St. near King Edward), where Jesse Johl's campaign office is located, there aren't too many Jesse Johl signs. So it's looking more like a race between the Liberals and the NDP. Both have strong candidates. The fact that nationally, Harper and the Conservatives are in the lead may paradoxically help the Liberals, as NDP supporters shift to the Liberals to try to keep Harper out. May be less of a factor in this riding, depending on how strong Jesse Johl's campaign appears to be. Also, I'm guessing that Chinese voters in this riding will lean towards the Liberals, and they make up 40% of voters in this riding. | |||
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15/06/04 | Downtowner Email: eastvanrussell@hotmail.com | |
| This one should be called. The NDP has nearly doubled its support in BC. This is a riding they almost won in 97 at half the province wide level of support with an unknown candidate. With massively higher party support in the province and a star candidate the NDP is clearly going to win the riding. Call it. | |||
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15/06/04 | Barin Email: [hidden] | |
| I say Johl pulls a major upset off to win this riding. Johl from what I hear is out 8 hours on the streets, at houses and businesses. Oldman Ian has not spent a dime advertising and is trying to ride the coattails of Whacko Jacko. Emerson is just a guy that doesn't fit. Johl will win, but it will be close. | |||
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15/06/04 | J wang Email: J_wang@hotmail.com | |
| The problem about emerson's campaign is too much about his wife, not enough about himself. Emerson has to stop barbbing about his chinese wife and more about himself. For Gods sack, it's his campaign as I can recall. As a chinese myself, I don't really care about who the candidate marry to. I think Ian will win this one. | |||
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10/06/04 | David C. Email: [hidden] | |
| I live in this riding so I ought to make a prediction for it. I'm predicting the NDP. One just because Emerson is married to a Chinese woman doesn't mean he'll get their vote would I suggest that Layton is automatically going to get the Chinese vote because of Olivia Chow, heck no -- the Chinese community is diverse like all others and many people will vote many ways whether that is Conservative, Liberal or NDP. Two the other two Candidates have no experience. Jesse Johl's whole campaign, regardless of whether or not he's a nice guy, is that he was born and raised in the riding, lives there and therefore knows what the community needs. That's a weak reason to convince people to vote for you not to mention the fact that this isn't really a conservative riding anyways. Emerson is a novice not to mention the fact that he doesn't live in the riding, was appointed -- which isn't appreciated by British Columbians including Vancouverites in this riding and is running for a party that is un-popular provincially and attached to a federal a campaign that is flagging. Three the reason why I'm picking this riding to go NDP is because of Ian Waddell himself. He's a moderate social-democrat with government experience as a cabinet minister and experience as federal MP -- he won't simply be an advocate he will be a good constituency man as he knows what the job entitles. And while Emerson and Johl are likeable as people Waddell is every bit as likeable as well. All three of these factors will contribute to an NDP win in Vancouver-Kingsway. | |||
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09/06/04 | Victor A. Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com | |
| People, let's get serious. In my mind there is no doubt Emerson will win. Kingsway is around 50 % Chinese Canadian and you can't imgine how effective his campain is when it comes to that specific community. He was recently endorsed by its main players, mainly because his wife is Chinese. Major C.-C. newspapers had these endorsments printed on one full page. This riding has been Liberal in the past and the federal BC Liberals are pretty high in the polls ( comparing to other provinces ), where do you think that BC support come from? Southern Interior LOL, I don't think so. NDP will score good result here as well but given the dynamic of the riding it is certainly going Liberal. When it comes to the Alliance-Conservatives, as someone specified below the older, white, Christian men are so outnumbered in this riding by other groups that their protest vote will not matter. | |||
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08/06/04 | HH Mann Email: [hidden] | |
| Emerson is working his ass off, and Ian Waddell is running scared. It would require a massive shift in voter intentions for the NDP to win. The Tory candidate is far too brash. The Chinese vote will want to go with Emerson - his wife is Chinese, and he is known now as a very successful person in many fields. There are too small a number of angry white men in this riding for the Tories to pull much. | |||
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06/06/04 | Sam Email: [hidden] | |
| However, after observing the candidates in action and canvassing around the riding I'd have to say that it's presently a fight between the two extroverts - Waddell, whose first election was before my candidate was born, and the Conservative Jesse Johl. Johl is a friendly and outgoing man with strong ties to the community - he lives here, unlike all of the other candidates, but the Conservatives are just a little too Reform Party still, I think. Waddell is very effective as a campaigner, has a long history (selectively presented - he didn't mention favouring turning Burns Bog into an amusement park in his presentation to an environmental forum), and a solid core of support. I predict the Liberal vote will disintegrate, the Green Party will do above ten percent, and waddell will squeak in. | |||
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05/06/04 | JT Email: [hidden] | |
| I'll pick Ian Wadell to win this riding. The Liberals are meesing up in BC big time IMO. (The Burnbay-Douglas episode comes to mind.) The NDP are pose to make some gains here and having a well known candiate will help for sure. | |||
| 04/06/04 | Full name Email: russilwvong@yahoo.com | ||
| I think this one's too close to call. It's a three-way race: Emerson and Waddell are both strong candidates, and there's a lot of Jesse Johl signs in my neighbourhood (near Main and King Edward). | |||
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01/06/04 | David Mann Email: [hidden] | |
| Emerson has no chance in Kingsway. Sophia Leung’s success in 1997 and 2001 could be contributed to large Chinese community in this riding. My neighbor is a Chinese and he is very upset this time that Leung was pushed out in favor of parachuting a rich white business guy from west side. Emerson and liberal can’t count on Chinese vote this time in Kingsway. From what I heard, Emerson is not a very good campaigner. Ian Waddal is running a very decent campaign. He has lots of history in the riding. Many long time residents still remember him. NDP’s polling number is very good both federally and provincially. On June29th, it will be a NDP riding. | |||
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01/06/04 | neutral voter Email: | |
| It will be a two way race between Liberal and NDP. Historically this has been an NDP Riding. Ian Waddell used to hold this seat and wants it back. His name recognition, rise of the provincial NDP, and historical past gives him a good chance to take it back. The Conservative candidate will probably not be a factor. Expect the NDP to make significant gains in BC. | |||
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28/05/04 | Justin Cheng Email: [hidden] | |
| This riding has a lot of minorities who are supportive of the Liberal Party. David Emerson is the heads on favorite. | |||
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25/05/04 | Bruce Stewart Email: bruce@stewart-group.com | |
| David Emerson's parachute, courtesy of the Prime Minister, seems to be safely packed away in Kingsway. A good friend (a fellow voter in Quadra, but working on the Emerson campaign) reported after a weekend's work that street campaigning seems to be going well, and that the campaign office is bustling with more than just party insiders. Even if the Liberals look as though they are going down to defeat nationally, this one's looking (so far) like it may turn into a win - name recognition helps on voting day thanks to our ballot design, and Emerson has it. Couple that with the fast start and motivated campaign workers, and he should be home even in the face of a Liberal campaign failure. | |||
| 25/05/04 | Buffalo Email: [hidden] | ||
| This is a Liberal win, no question. They won easily with the underwhelming Sophia Leung. Now, they have a star candidate in David Emmerson who will gain profile as the campaign wears on. With the prospect of having the "BC Boss" representing their riding, voters will opt for the Libs. Ian Waddell may be credible, but he is not immune to losing. He has been unable to pull a Svend-like miracle to buck losing trends in the past (1993 federal, 2001 provincial). Plus, is this really an NDP seat anymore? The riding sneaks into the west side now plus has strong Chinese base - not fertile N-Dipper territory. | |||
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15/05/04 | Vortigern Email: [hidden] | |
| Just some comments on the history of the riding. It hasn't gone conservative since 1958, making such a result unlikely to say the least. More importantly, Kingsway was won by the Liberals in 1974, and in the previous three elections - in other words, when the NDP was in power provincially. With the NDP polling far above the 2000 level in BC, this riding should be one of a half-dozen or so to go NDP on election night. | |||
| /05/04 | Yukon Pundit Email: [hidden] | ||
| Wow, I've got to agree with the previous poster, based on past voting patterns with a good Liberal base but strong Cons contingent, and the B.C. backlash for appointing candidates (which will mean a few votes), plus a big name in Ian Waddell, I think this will be one of the fun three-way races which everybody should grab some popcorn and keep a good eye on June 28. | |||
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13/05/04 | BSE Email: [hidden] | |
| As regular middle class guy who grew up in the riding and still lives in it, it is definitely a three way race. All the candidates except Conservative Jesse Johl lives outside the riding. The fact he is a local guy born and raised does impress me. David Emerson is going to have a hard time articulating a message that will relate to the people of Vancouver Kingsway and does he have a plan for the people of this riding not just for Vancouver and Canada only. Ian Waddell will have a hard time telling everyone he is for fiscal responsibility when he was part of Glen Clark's government which bled red ink like there was no tomorrow. My feeling it is not two way but a three race. | |||
| 12/05/04 | E. Andrew Washburn Email: [hidden] | ||
| Wow, this is geared up to be a three way race. With the Liberals dropping in polls, and the NDP going up, they should both meet where the Conservatives are right now if you look at last election results. I like the NDP chances here, as they have a solid base in this riding. Sophia Leung has won here the last two times, so might win as well. The Conservatives are a good dark horse to win here too. Too bad there aren't three Wong's on this year's ballot! | |||
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08/05/04 | Ugly American Email: [hidden] | |
| Another obvious NDP target plus strong candidate provided that the anti-Clark backlash has run its course - fearless prediction: NDP | |||
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08/05/04 | Mr. Mischief Email: [hidden] | |
| This should be an N.D.P. gain. The Liberals have been in power provincially for a while - usually a sign of trouble for a party's federal counterpart. The N.D.P. are running a high profile blast from the past who held a seat for a while, and ran for the leadership in 1989. I don't know the riding, but I would bet that the 5% who used to be Progressives are NOT going to join the new conservative party, or the liberals... | |||
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06/05/04 | Miri Email: | |
| Hey, James - for the record, Ian Waddell has lost two elections out of seven he has contested at the federal and provincial levels over the past 25 years - both times when there were massive tidal waves that took out most of the NDP. This time out, the currents are running to the left in BC, and a parachute candidate imposed by Mr. Democratic Deficit himself is not going to win against a seasoned politician like Waddell. | |||
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24/04/04 | James Email: [hidden] | |
| David Emerson is running hard. He's not taking this for granted. But the Alliance, which came close by nominating a strong Chinese-Canadian candidate last time made a big mistake. They nominated a weak Indo-Canadian candidate. If they had run another strong Chinese-Canadian they would have had a chance. As for Waddell ... how many times is this guy going to have to lose before he gets it? | |||
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24/04/04 | DL Email: [hidden] | |
| This will be such an easy NDP pick-up it isn't funny. The NDP has surged by 20 points in BC and is getting TRIPLE the vote it got in 2000. On top of that the large Chinese community is getting more and more pissed off at how Chinese Liberals are getting bumped out of Liberal nominations to make way for Martin's cronies. On top of that the tone deaf Liberals run the president of a forest company here in downtown Vancouver - where most people hate the forest industry. Waddell by at least 5,000 votes. | |||
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19/04/04 | James E. Email: [hidden] | |
| Let's be clear here - the Liberals are running the strongest candidate in the province in one of their strongest ridings in the province. They will spare nothing in making sure that David Emerson wins. He has won over the riding association very well - and he is winning over the Chinese media very well - his wife is Chinese, and is by his side at all of the events. This is definitely still in the Liberal column. | |||
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17/04/04 | jb Email: [hidden] | |
| EP is correct that Ian Waddell's provincial riding from 1996-2001 was Vancouver-Fraserview (which is entirely in Vancouver South federal). However, his federal riding from 1979-1988 was Vancouver-Kingsway. In 1988 his riding disappeared with redistribution, and he moved out to the suburbs. But the many seniors in the riding remember Ian very well as their MP. | |||
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13/04/04 | Scott G. Email: [hidden] | |
| David Emerson may be a great star candidate for the Liberals somewhere (the BC Liberals apparently also tried to recruit him in 2000), but not here, and particularly not against a former NDP MP. The main point in Emerson's favour is that people may remember Ian Waddell as an MLA and cabinet minister in Glen Clark's government. But I don't see that making a big difference. People in this traditionally left-leaning area would probably even vote for Glen Clark himself against a candidate closely associated with the big-business, Gordon Campbell wing of the Liberal party. | |||
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11/04/04 | J. Windsor Email: | |
| I'm going to put in a good word for Jesse Johl -- he's the only candidate from the riding. If you think about it, the CA got 29% here last time, and the PC's got 5%. That makes 34%. This will be a tight, 3-way race. Emerson, Mr. appointed CEO, will go over like a led balloon in this, a riding he may or may not have ever been to. Waddell will be strong -- but strong enough??? This will be a 3-way race. Johl might only need 34% to win. I wouldn't put money on Johl, but I wouldn't ignore him either. | |||
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10/04/04 | Anita R Email: aromaniuk@ca.inter.net | |
| Martin has alienated many voters in B.C. by appointing candidates. This is one of the ridings. Sophia Leung was a seldom-heard backbencher for the Liberals, but she did work to gain support from the various multi-cultural communities in this riding. Emerson is all wrong for this riding - he belongs in West Vancouver or someplace similar to that. Waddell, on the other hand, represented this riding for the NDP in the 1980's. Much of it was held provincially by the NDP in the 1990's. It's a winnable riding for the NDP. | |||
| 08/04/04 | EP Email: [hidden] | ||
| While I agree with "Somebody in Ottawa" on the point that the NDP will be competitive here, I must point out the flaws in his points. First of all, Ian Waddell is an outstanding MP/MLA/Minister represented THE RIDING SOUTH OF VAN-KINGSWAY (Fraserview)! The nation would have been better served if Ujjal is running here and Ian running there, as we will have two more progressive politicians that way. Ujjal represented this riding as Premier and is not running here because he does not want to run head to head with a friend. Also, the point that "if Ujjal saw fit to put him in cabinet, he must be good" is quite laughable. There were barely enough people that are not tied to Glen Clark in the NDP caucus to form a full Dosanji cabinet. Anyone with a breath could have gotten into cabinet. Lastly, NDP made a strategic mistake of not nominating a Chinese here. They were competitive in 1997 because Victor Wong was a fairly well know Chinese, and he barely got his deposit back in 2000. With Ian Waddell, the "a white men took over from a chinese" arguement hardly rings. Afterall, Liberal actually has a Chinese candidate in BC (Ray Chan)! | |||
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07/04/04 | Bernard Email: [hidden] | |
| This riding is historically NDP. Yes the Liberals flucked in 1974 and won and Sophie Leung beat the NDP in 1997 when the NDP could have won. The 2000 NDP election result was the worst result by and every measure since the 1930s in this riding. The riding did not exist for a few elections in the late 80s and early 90s. If it did, the Liberals would not have won. Ian Waddell handily. Ermerson is coming across as arogant. His parachuting is going over slightly worse than a lead ballon. And Canfor is wildly unpopular in BC. His statement the super mill in Houston is the only future is going make for great fodder for the NDP. Notice that Emerson did not run in PG where Canfor has most of their business. If you were going to parachute him, why not on the North Shore in North Vancouver, BC's most traditional Liberal area (which they seem to not win federally) | |||
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07/04/04 | Somebody in Ottawa Email: [hidden] | |
| Emmerson's a parachute if there ever was one for a riding like Kingsway. At least Waddell's got a record of service as a former MP, MLA and cabinet minister: if Ujjal saw fit to put him in cabinet, he must be good, right? The key to Kingsway is the local Chinese community, which must be ticked at the way poor old Sophia Leung got pushed aside by Paul Martin to make way for another white businessman. The NDP have a secret weapon on this front: Olivia Chow, Layton's other half. Her influence during the national campaign will hand the riding to Waddell. | |||
| 05/04/04 | Objective Observer Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca | ||
| David Emerson, the Liberal candidate, has a pedigree which includes former positions as deputy finance minister as well as head of YVR, which is now one of the world's top-rated international airports. Frankly, I would think that all three parties, if they were intending to form government, would appreciate this experience at the cabinet level. That being said, Emerson could be categorized as a *blue* Liberal in a middle-class/ working-class or *red* Liberal riding, although there have been instances where *red* Liberals have won in *blue* Liberal ridings. Under the former boundaries, the incumbent held the riding in 1997 by a ratio of 40.6% to 30.5% for the NDP, a year when the NDP obtained 18.2% of the overall provincial vote. The latest Ipsos-Reid poll (or snapshot) has the NDP at 18% in B.C., although all national opinion polls have a high margin of error for their respective provincial results. Ian Waddell, a relatively moderate NDP candidate, is a strong challenger and if the NDP are able to surpass their 1997 B.C. results this seat may well be in the NDP column. Right now, I think that this riding is a toss-up until the election has been well underway. | |||
| 05/04/04 | David Email: [hidden] | ||
| This is clearly a 2 way race between the grits and the dips. Jesse Johl may as well not waste the time and money of running. This isn't a winnable Tory seat and got even less so with the appointment of the model of a Conservative candidate by PMPM. It will really come down to capitalism vs. socialism. I honestly am not too sure which side will win, but I must say I'm scared that it will be the later. | |||
| 05/04/04 | Dean Email: deansherratt@rogers.com | ||
| I think this one is going to be very close to call...First, Emerson must be congratulated on his tough selection win...but in the end, his ability to get the one vote needed (Martin's) must have taken a lot of knocking on doors and working the riding hard...Sarcasm aside, I query why Emerson is running here at all. As others have noted, his credentials don't play very well here and, as an appointment, the Liberal establishment doesn't seemed to have tried very hard to have matched candidate and riding. He has no Kingsway connections or ethnic advantage and that will present his opponents with a vacuum to fill. He might have been much better placed running in the southern suburbs or in North Van. That being said, Waddell won't find the going easy either. When he was MP, the NDP were very strong in BC and current polls don't show the NDP returning to that level of support (18% in the last Ipsos Reid). I concur in the assessment that the Conservative vote is not well placed to build beyond what is was in 2000, so I suspect a tight three way race, but with a likely drain-off of votes from both Liberals and NDP to the Greens. I bet the winner won't get much more than 35% of the vote. | |||
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01/04/04 | Mike D Email: [hidden] | |
| I doubt there is worse place in BC to run a candidate like Emerson. This riding has no connection whatsoever to forestry, not a single sawmill. And his business credentials would go over much better on the North Shore or South Surrey - the eastern part of the riding is working class. This is still Waddells to lose. | |||
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31/03/04 | M.W. Email: mijawara@yahoo.com | |
| Now it's a race: Looks like Martin will appoint former Canfor CEO David Emerson to run here, over incumbent Sophia Leung and fellow hopeful Wendy Yuan. Emerson has a certain gravitas, and can reasonably campaign on the expectation of a senior appointment to Cabinet should he win. On the other hand, there's no reason to believe Van-Kingsway will vote for a rightish ex-timber baron parachuted into their riding. Still betting on Waddell, but anticipating a tougher fight. | |||
| 31/03/04 | Bernard Email: [hidden] | ||
| It was reported in the Van Sun today that Martin will appoint David Emerson as the candidate here. This makes it very hard for the NDP to win. David Emerson is the CEO of Canfor - the heaviest weight in the forest industry in Canada. | |||
| 26/03/04 | Vortigern Email: [hidden] | ||
| I would dearly love to call this one for the NDP, and I expect it to be a gain on election night. The trouble is, alot can happen between now and an election. Sophia Leung has been horribly weak, and frankly a bit of a liability to the Liberal party. Meanwhile, I suspect the conservative vote is as high as it's likely to get. For Waddell to win, anti-Liberal support has to coalesce around him, which could happen. The millstone of the provincial party's unpopularity has been lifted, which could well encourage people to vote that way. | |||
| 23/03/04 | Ian King Email: vancouverscrum@myrealbox.com | ||
| Not long ago, this was looking like a safe Liberal seat, what with a weak NDP and riding changes that shift the western boundary out to tony Oak Street. Ian Waddell's nomination threw this one back into play. This isn't the Kingsway riding that he represented in the eighties, though -- the southern reaches of the riding trend more to the right than would ordinarily be comfortable for an NDPer these days. Still, Waddell is a campaign machine who represents the more moderate face of the NDP, and it might yet put him over the top. Conservative candidate Jesse Johl will likely end up third in this field, but may play the spoiler depending on how much of the centre-right vote he pulls. I'm holding off on calling this one until the campaign's been underway for a little while. | |||
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20/03/04 | Bernard Email: [hidden] | |
| Ian Waddell will win here. The Liberals can only win this riding with a dead NDP, the NDP rise in votes in places like this riding and this is exactly the sort of area Jack Layton appeals to. Paul Martin is not going to convince anyone that life has been great with a no-name Liberal MP. | |||
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19/03/04 | P. Kelly Email: [hidden] | |
| Ian Waddell will take this seat. This seat should not be in the 'too close to call' column, as Ian's name reckognition and electability will send him back to Ottawa. | |||
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18/03/04 | Brant King Email: [hidden] | |
| I predict an NDP pickup. Sophia Leung is a very weak MP and the NDP is picking up in the polls in BC. This is a working class riding and BC's working class has a strong NDP-voting history. Prediction: NDP 42%, LIB 36%, CPC 17%, others 5% | |||
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17/03/04 | Liu Bang Email: [hidden] | |
| One of the most likely pickups for a resurgent NDP on the lower mainland. Former MP Ian Waddell should have no difficulty defeating a very weak Liberal incumbent. The Conservatives will not be a significant factor here. | |||
| 17/03/04 | Objective Observer Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca | ||
| I think this is another seat the outcome of which is too early to predict. Historically this area, after various redistributions, has elected both CCF/NDP and Liberal candidates. Ian Waddell, who represented the area from 1979 to the late 1980's is the nominated NDP candidate this time around and they will be competitive. In three successive Ipsos-Reid polls the federal NDP's B.C. vote has see-sawed from 27% to 20% back to 27% again which is greater than the 11.3% garnered in 2000. At the present time, however, I am leaning to a marginal Liberal victory. | |||
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27/02/04 | Patrick Webber Email: | |
| The NDP is currently polling at between 25%-30%, as compared to the 11.3% they received in B.C. in 2000. This means the NDP is set to make gains in the province, and Vancouver-Kingsway is a seat they can take back. NDP candidate and former MP Ian Waddell should be able to knock off Sophie Wong, the weak Liberal incumbent. NDP gain. | |||
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