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West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
12:35 PM 6/16/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:30 AM 17/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Canadian Action canadienne:
Marc Bombois
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Andrea Goldsmith
Anne Jamieson
John Reynolds
Nicholas Simons
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Blair Wilson

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
North Vancouver (5.9%)
Ted White
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast (94.1%)
John Reynolds

2000 Result/Résultats: -lalalaA HREF="../../2000_federal/bc/vancouver-south-burnaby.html"
26,115 47.86%
14,765 27.06%
5,116 9.38%
3,416 6.26%
5,149 9.44%

North Vancouver
(25/241 polls, 5104/81405 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast
(220/231 polls, 81698/83459 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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13/06/04 Nearly branded Communist 'cause I'm left-handed...
Email: politiko@planet-save.com
The Ipsos-Reid poll referred to in the two previous submissions as projecting this seat for the Green Party, had, I understand, a sample size of about 100 people, and therefore a margin of error in the range of +/- 9%. I am not certain of those exact figures, but if they are even close, then the poll is, in my opinion, practically worthless. Yes, the Sunshine Coast is very strongly Green provincially, but when you substitute the high profile and popular provincial leader Adriane Carr with Andrea Goldsmith (who, despite being a Gibsons municipal councillor, is not too well known in most areas of the riding), I don't see the Greens getting anywhere in the remote range of their provincial numbers. That being said, I can also justify why I think the NDP has more support than previous submissions credit, and why I think they may just surprise everyone by pulling something out of the hat on June 28th:
1 - The previously mentioned sign war is being fought out on public property. If ditches, hillsides and grassy verges could vote, then maybe the Greens would have a chance, but the NDP is the only party that has almost every one of their signs posted on private property at the request of the homeowner.
2 - In the last election, the poor showing of the NDP was due to a low-key (almost no-key) candidate and campaign, which neglected to get out even their traditional supporters. This time around, a strong campaign is being run, even in the liberal/conservative hotbed of West Van.
3 - The NDP candidate, Nicholas Simons, although a newcomer to the political scene, is well known in the large musical community of the Sunshine Coast as an accomplished cellist, and has many strong connections with native bands in the riding through his employment with the Sechelt Indian Band. He is not a new face to many in the riding.
4 - The incumbent, John Reynolds, although a consummate politician, can be less than friendly when it comes to unscripted, one-on-one interactions with his constituents. In contrast, Simons is always personable, with a good dose of self-effacing humour, and is able to attract those outside of the NDP stalwarts. The longer the campaign runs, and the more people he is able to get out and talk to, the more his support will grow.
5 - Simons is able to think on his feet, talk intelligently and passionately without notes or a script, and deliver his message without resorting to clichéd slogans. He has the potential to blow the others away at all candidate meetings and debates.
With the NDP riding high across the country, with Paul Martin slumping badly, and with Stephen Harper focusing more on removing his candidates' feet from their mouths than on winning over Canadians, I believe that this is one riding the New Democrats could take, and that Nicholas Simons has a good chance of being the next MP for West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast.
10/06/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
Uhhh. John Reynolds lose to the Greeen Party. Yeah, that will happen right after the Liberals sweep Calgary and the NDP win Mount-Royal. The only impact the Greens will make is kill the little chance the NDP have here by plitting the left-wing vote. Reynolds as little to worry about.
09/06/04 C. Hubley
Email: [hidden]
It all boils down to the "stampede factor". Where do anti-Reynolds votes go? And how much capacity does a "dark horse" like Goldsmith have to get people to vote who had no hope or interest before? Frankly a "BC Liberal" Martinite cannot possibly be appealing to anyone but relatively right wing voters so perhaps they are splitting Reynolds' vote. And, if NDP voters see no chance for the NDP and refuse to vote Liberal or Conservative, it's quite likely they'd vote Green and elect Goldsmith. But not a slam dunk, since, it's not clear that Goldsmith can exploit all these factors in her favour, or discipline her campaigners to exploit "throw the bums out" feeling and the historic potential of being first to elect a Green. She might be best off to portray it as a race: "Who will be first to elect a Green, WestVancouver Sunshine Coast or Saanich Gulf Islands? Who will your grandchildren thank?" That sort of thing.
08/06/04 C. Hubley
Email: [hidden]
"The latest Ipsos-Reid poll is predicting the Green Party will win two seats in BC." This being one of them. Apparently the anti-Liberal mood and strong bad taste in people's mouths from the provincial NDP are in play and Andrea Goldsmith is benefitting immensely from both. She might become the only way people left of Reynolds can vote without holding their nose. If so, she'd be the first, or one of the first, Green MPs in this country. And that's a point of pride that will attract her campaigners to work very hard. If the Liberals continue to tank, their votes could go to her.
The same factors I listed below work for Goldsmith: people voted for John Reynolds because of his honesty, loyalty and dedication to grassroots forms of democracy. They might vote for Goldsmith for all those same reasons if she has a serious chance to win. And this poll says she does.
I'm not predicting it yet, but I'm withdrawing my prediction of Reynolds. A left-wing grassroots democracy advocate running neck and neck against a right-wing grassroots democracy advocate is a horse race, and Reynolds has been spending so much time in Ottawa, he may not be so "grassroots" anymore.
06/06/04 Steven Hurdle
Email: [hidden]
When Ipsos-Reid yesterday indicated their seat model had the Greens leading in two BC seats, could this have been the second one (after Saanich-Gulf Islands) they meant? This riding incorporates areas the Greens did very well in provincially. I just travelled the length of the Sunshine Coast three days ago and the sign war was largely being fought between the Conservatives and the Greens, the Liberals and NDP had very little visible presence in that section of the riding. The provincial Green Party's head office is in Powell River and it seems like the provincial Green Party machine has temporarily been turned over to electing Goldsmith, giving her strong organisation on the ground. Goldsmith has been endorsed by Adrian Carr, the popular leader of the Green Party of BC, and is a successful city counsellor so not a neophyte at this. Expect the Greens to be very strong amongst the roughly 50% of electors in the Powell River/Sunshine Coast section and decently strong in Whistler, and for the vote splits between the Liberals and Conservatives elsewhere to make Goldsmith's victory possible.
25/05/04 Buffalo
Email: [hidden]
This one might be closer than indicated. Reynolds was no slam dunk in 1997. Although he has a high profile, Reynolds is being challenged this time by an aggressive, youthful, successful candidate. In 2000, the Conservatives ran at 49% province-wide. They are no where near that now (about 30-35%). This is a riding where a good chunk may be shaved off the vote of the Conservative incumbent.
24/05/04 Squishy
Email: [hidden]
It's not all about West Van: the riding (Canada's largest by population, by the way) is about 125,000, of which about 20,000 are in Powell River and area, 30,000 on the Sunshine Coast and 25,000 in the Sea to Sky corridor (Squamish/Whistler). The Tories are in rough waters in all of the above -- Powell River and the Sunshine Coast are NDP-friendly and Blair Wilson has been campaigning up a storm in Squamish and Whistler.
But, when it's all said and done, West Van is still solid Reynolds territory and that swings the riding. The one thing that could change that is Reynolds' role as national campaign co-chair. If Reynolds manages to put enough feet in his mouth in the national media and isn't around to fix the local impact, there's some room for Wilson to sneak by. But I doubt it: Reynolds has been in the game way too long to forget how it's played now.
24/05/04 RetroRyan
Conservative incumbent John Reynolds is one my favourite MPs across the country. He expemplifies one ironic quality above all: Party Loyalty. The reason why it is so ironic is that John Reynolds has been a former PC MP in the 70's, a former Social Credit MLA (and cabinet minster) until 1991, a then he was elected as a Reform MP until that party finally morphed into the new Conservative Party of Canada. John Reynolds has vigorously defended Stockwell Day when people were sticking knives into his back, and now he is a strong right-hand man for Stephen Harper. All the while, he has consistently stood up for basic conservative principles. Now here's why he'll be re-elected:
1) He has a long history representing the folks in this area, both provinially and federally.
2) His loyalty makes him more trustworthy.
3) Most importantly, the numbers just don't add up in the Liberals favour. The Liberals would require a Gordon Campbell style provincial Liberal candidate in order to give a scare to John Reynolds. John won with big numbers the last time around, and he will likely pick up some of the old PC vote.
29/04/04 Taylor Mathers
Email: [hidden]
Mike Bailey:
Maybe I didn't make my last post clear. I said that West Van is a very conservative place, and seems less spooked by social conservatives than other affluent areas. I also didn't say that Reynolds is less popular in West Van, I was talking about the 97 election when Phil Boname did run even with Reynolds. Since they have a West Van corporate-type running, I think the Liberals will run stronger in West Van than the rest of the riding.
26/04/04 C. Hubley
Email: [hidden]
The Greens are not running Carr, but a City Councillor. John Reynolds also took a shot at Joe Clark after today's remarks. That will diminish his prestige a bit. I'll still call this for Reynolds, though it's not as close a race.
21/04/04 C. Hubley
Email: [hidden]
John Reynolds will take it. Consider a few things that have changed since 2000: the Greens have become much more of a factor, and the popular BC Green leader Adrianne Carr ran in this riding provincially - if she runs federally, she'll pull a few Liberal and NDP votes. Second, the Liberals are now perceived as basically competing with the Conservatives for the corporate vote in BC - splitting it - but Reynolds has the track record.
Also, John Reynolds personally is a high visibility national figure. He held the Alliance together during the Stockwell Day meltdown, and was a pretty staunch advocate for the grassroots membership and their choices and right to make choices as per the constitution. Many people including on the left see him as the highest integrity figure that the Conservatives have, which really does count, especially after the Liberal sponsorship scandal. It's entirely reasonable for a reform-minded grassroots-oriented voter to be choosing between the Green Party and John Reynolds, and could rationally choose either one, if they really only cared about "process".
Reynolds is also about the only Conservative who has spoken up for Liberal figures of relatively high integrity like Charles Caccia. When Caccia was displaced as a committee head, Reynolds aligned with the Martinites to put committees back in charge of who their heads are. He was very public about resisting the flow of power into the PMO, he named Caccia in particular as a high-integrity figure who should be chairing and not shoved off to the side by Chretien, and many people believe he'd stand up to any abuses of process Harper tried to pull if he captured the PMO. It might not happen. But those who want a check on the Conservative leader would be well advised to keep Reynolds in there, because Mackay ain't no check on nuthin'.
19/04/04 Lyssa
Email: [hidden]
I don't believe John Reynolds will hold onto his seat this time around. There is a big push for Martin Liberals in the riding, and with a strong candidate like Blair Wilson, I think the Liberals will definitely see a win here. Wilson is both a downtown Vancouver business man and a West Vancouver native. He has a lot of respect in many different circles. John Reynolds on the other hand... well, let's just say he has made a lot of enemies both in the local governments and with the local people. A lot of people see him as too old to be the MP again, not to mention they see his accessibility as very minimal. Blair Wilson deserves to be the MP, and I believe he'll achieve it.
14/04/04 Mike Bailey
Email: [hidden]
Mr. Mathers suffers from a few misconceptions about this riding. I grew up here and I can tell you that the least Reynolds-friendly area here is Powell River, not West Van. In 2000 Reynold did better in West Van than he did across the riding - in the range of 55%. Reynolds has preformed well as CA interim leader and as House Leader and cheif Harper supporter. Harper got 91% in this riding in the Leadership. Reynolds is well-liked and served the area for the better part of the 1980's as the MLA. Despite what some people say in this riding you will be able to add together the PC and CA vote for the new Conservative Party. Expect Reynolds to win this in a cake-walk - by at least 20%, probably in the range of 54%-57%.
01/04/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Reynolds has moved from the PC Party, to the BC Social Credit Party, to the Reform Party, to the Canadian Alliance, to the Conservative Party of Canada. He was elected each time. Regardless of who he runs for, he will win this riding.
18/03/04 Taylor Mathers
Email: [hidden]
Despite its natural beauty, politically this riding shares more in common with Orange County, CA (an area between LA and San Diego known for its affluence and hard-line conservative voting patterns) than Marin County, CA (a liberal-voting affluent area across San Francisco's Golden Gate Bridge). So even while affluent areas like North Toronto or the West Side of Vancouver get spooked by social conservatives and vote massively Liberal, West Van voters, whatever their qualms with social conservatives, still vote conservatively. Nonetheless, this riding isn't all West Van, and even West Van has a lot of Green voters as well. If the Liberals pick a big name candidate (like the very popular former West Van mayor Mark Sager) they could win here. In 97, for instance, Liberal candidate Phil Boname ran even with Reynolds in West Van itself. Either way, I'm certain John Reynolds won't be coasting to victory this time.
Prediction: CPC 41%, LIB 36%, NDP 15%, Greens 6%, others 2%
16/03/04 Objective Observer
Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca
PC/Reform/CA have held this seat for the past 30 years. Unless the federal CPC vote drops dramatically with a concurrent jump in Liberal voting intentions, which I cannot foresee, the seat will remain in CPC hands.

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