Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
2:12 PM 6/18/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:31 PM 14/03/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

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Duncan Cunningham
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Nancy Karetak-Lindell
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Nedd Kenney
Bill Riddell
Manitok Thompson

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Nunavut (100.0%)
Nancy Karetak-Lindell

2000 Result/Résultats:
5,285 69.00%
1,404 18.33%
622 8.12%
348 4.54%
0 0.00%

(56/56 polls, 14338/14338 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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15/06/04 Alex
Email: [hidden]
A 69% share does not evaporate, even in this climate of Liberal meltdown.
01/06/04 Robert
Email: [hidden]
With the absence of any real choice in Nunavut, the voters will stick with who they know and they know Nancy
/05/04 Yukon Pundit
Email: [hidden]
Paul Okalik was rumoured as a possible NDP candidate which could have given them a decent shot against someone who is widely considered to be a weak MP. But the people of Nunavut like voting Liberal and without Okalik running against, this should be a hold for Karetak-Lindell even with Manitok Thompson gumming up the works as an independent. However, Thompson's appearance would kill Karetak-Lindell's chance of getting another 68 %.
Email: [hidden]
This should be an easy hold for Nancy and the Liberals though her margin of victory will be less than 2000 given the likely entry of Manitok Thompson as an independent candidate. Manitok is a former cabinet minister in the Government of Nunavut from Rankin Inlet, and planned to contest the Liberal nomination. She pulled out of the nomination race about a week before the vote complaining about interference from national headquarters. Manitok will make the federal election in Nunavut mildly interesting as her public comments can be so erratic and she is a strong social conservative. This is not a great combination for any politician but may make for an entertaining campaign. Expect Nancy to receive active support from a number of territorial cabinet ministers including Ed Picco and David Simailak.
30/03/04 Garth Brasseur
Email: [hidden]
It is difficult to predict who is going to win this riding (or the Western Arctic for that matter) without knowing who the candidates are. Personalities and community connections count so much more than in Southern Canada. If the NDP or Conservatives can find an Inuit candidate with a dominating presence in one or more of the major communities (Rankin Inlet, Arviat, Pangnirtung or Iqaluit), it could dramatically affect the final outcome. If not, then the Liberals do hold the advantage. As well, if one assumes that past election results represent strong loyalty to the Liberal Party (as opposed to the individual candidate), that would be a mistake.
16/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
This riding went so strongly for the Liberals last time, I feel it will do the same this time.
01/03/04 Patrick Webber
The Liberals got 68% of the vote here in 2000. I find it difficult to think that the Liberals won't hold this seat.

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