noi-North Island

Election Prediction Project

North Island
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
11:34 PM 16/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
6:57 PM 26/02/2005

Constituency Profile

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)

Democratic Reform BC
Dan Cooper

Independent
Lorne James Scott

Green Party
Philip Stone

NDP
Claire Trevena

BC Liberal
Rod Visser

Incumbent:

BC Liberals:
VISSER, Rod

1996 Re-distribution:

Population: 57050

Dev. from Quota: 21.01%

Area (km2): 18011

Pop Density: 3.17

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)

57.12%

26.42%

11.90%

0.00%

1996 Result (redistributed):

46.07%

35.94%

9.92%

4.89%

2.54%

Surrounding Ridings:
Alberni-Qualicum
Comox Valley


	16 05 05	Island Gal
Visser will be returned to office - he has the incumbent advantage. Trevena does not resonate with the resource-based traditional NDP supporters. Phillip Stone has done a great job with his campaign and will steal some votes from the NDP. Heck, a lot of usual New Democrat supporters are thinking of voting for Visser to make sure Trevena doesn't get in, they're so annoyed with her performance during the campaign (admitting she's never been to a fish farm and using mostly former Greens on her campaign)
	07 05 05	A. Vancouverite
The Liberals will need a lead on the Island for this seat to go their way. This isn't a traditional seat for them. Unless the Liberals establish a lead on the Island it would be unwise to call this seat for them. Therefore I'm going to predict the NDP will pick it up by a comfortable but not crushing margin of around 8 or so percentage points, and if they close the popular vote gap it should be a more solid pick up. One must also consider the fact that the Liberals are the incumbents, and therefore the problems with the economy in the region, issues such as softwood lumber and the economic depression of small-town BC won't play well for them. So frankly using the 96' numbers as some indication of a swing against the incumbent NDP goverment of the time makes no sense. It's more logical that such a swing would hurt the Liberals.
	04 05 05	Concerned Voter
Looking at the 2004 federal election results, I would say that this riding would go NDP. But wait! NDPers have chosen a Green environmentalist as their candidate here instead of a union leader or worker. That may mean that rank-and-file union voters may not show up on election day. Also, Carole James and Claire Trevena oppose fish-farming, which is the lifeblood of 4000 or so workers. James was dodging questions about this issue during the leadership debate. I think that's 4000 votes right there guaranteed to go to Rod Visser, giving him the boost needed to win re-election.
	04 05 05	Valley Girl
Visser will be re-elected. The NDP put the nail in their coffin at the mention of their visions with fish farms - bad move !! The North Island needs the strength of a strong economy to attract new business to the area.
	28 04 05	J.
Although the IWA and other resource sector unions here may be officially supporting the former Green member, now NDP candidate, I have a hard time believing that the rank and file would vote for someone with ties to radical environmentalists.
	13 04 05	Jack Bauer
The local NDP candidate is a former Green Party member, and has not lived in the area for very long. This riding is very heavy in forestry and other resource industries. While the unions may push for the NDP vote out of principle, I think the fact that the NDP candidate is an environmentalist and former Green Party member will do enough damage to allow a Liberal victory.
	09 04 05	politics101
Don't know enough about this riding to make a prediction but i wonder how the NDP unions types - particularily the IWA workers will feel about voting for a former member of the Green Party who was kicked off the the Citizen assembly staff after failing to disclose her political background to the assembly - see Vaughan Palmer column April 8, 2005 for the full story. Me thinks that the wood workers would like to continue to cut down trees not be collecting EI because the enviromentalists favor substainable logging practices whatever that is.
	02 04 05	Crystal Ball
Prior to the Colin Gabelmann era, the North Island was held by the Socreds. It's not an NDP seat lock, stock and barrel. In 1996, the NDP suffered one of its bigggest vote declines on the North Island, despite winning the seat. In 2001, Rod Visser raked in about 57% of the vote - about the BC average - leading one to presume that, all things being equal, he's standing at about 46% today - enough to win. But things aren't equal. The NDP have nominated a candidate from Quadra Island who is so Green that she actually was one barely three years ago. This is not going to play well in Holberg, Woss, and Zeballos I tell ya. Resources run deep in this riding and having a newcomer to the riding, with a Green pedigree, pull this one off is a lot to ask. My bet's on Visser.
	01 04 05	SLS
The NDP candidate for the North Island has ties to the Green Party and was in fact a director. It is true that the North Island does have a large union vote, many in the resource sectors, how supportive really is a NDP candidate/former Green party member of Resource based jobs?
	31 03 05	cj
The NDP candidate has no roots in the community and has even switched parties within the last two years.
	24 02 05	BLJ
Has been held by the NDP for over 30 years and with their vote returning to normal levels will again elect an NDP member. In the recent federal election, the NDP almost captured the larger North Island seat.
	24 02 05	M. Lunn
Even though the liberals may have some support in Campbell River, with Port Hardy and Port McNeil being heavily unionized and solidly NDP, they will need to do really well in Campbell River to win this riding, which I can't see happening. Comox Valley they might at least have a chance, albeit a small one of winning

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