Election Prediction Project

British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
7:17 PM 14/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
6:59 PM 26/02/2005

Constituency Profile

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Democratic Reform BC
Janice Marie Money
Joyce Procure
Green Party
Angela Reid
BC Liberal
Rick Thorpe

BC Liberals:
THORPE, Hon. Rick
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:-7.16%
Area (km2):2126
Pop Density:20.59

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Kelowna-Lake Country
Penticton-Okanagan Valley

12 05 05 Vortigern
The advantage is with the Liberal incumbent, largely for historical reasons. I would expect Procure to do well in the Summerland area, where the hospital situation plays right into her hands. The north end of the constituency is a different story, where growth has ameliorated the effects of Liberal cuts. Besides which, this is the area that will be most pleased by work on the Okanagan Lake Bridge - despite the fact that it would have been built irrespective of who was in power in Victoria.
Still, I wouldn't be surprised if the Liberals failed to crack 50%.
26 02 05 M. Lunn
With a large older and wealthy population, I cannot see the Liberals losing this one. It may not be a safe as the two Kelowna ridings, but the changing demographics definitely favours the Liberals, so Rick Thorpe should have no trouble getting re-elected. The NDP's best chance in the Okanagan Valley is Penticton-Okanagan Valley, although with the 2001 change in boundaries I really cannot see them picking up that one either. Maybe had they kept the 1996 boundaries, then the NDP would have a chance since they won in 1991 and almost won it in 1996.
24 02 05 M. Lunn
Although much of this riding went NDP in 1991 and federally in 1988, the demographics have changed considerably since then. With a large wealthy senior population, this will make it very difficult for any party left of centre to win. Rick Thorpe will be going back to Victoria come May 17th
24 02 05 Ken
Federally, this is part of Stockwell Day country. It definitely won't be going NDP anytime soon but the NDP will do better than before. Still, a fairly easy win for the Liberals.

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