Election Prediction Project

Surrey-Panorama Ridge
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
11:37 PM 16/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
11:44 PM 16/05/2005



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
NDP
Jagrup Brar
Marijuana
Troy Allan Chan
Green Party
Romeo D. De La Pena
BC Liberal
Bob Hans

Incumbent:
NDP:
BRAR, Jagrup
1996 Re-distribution:
Population:43620
Dev. from Quota:-7.48%
Area (km2):29
Pop Density:1504.14

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)

58.94%
19.91%
8.83%
6.90%

1996 Result (redistributed):

45.31%
38.95%
4.26%
6.75%
1.18%

Surrounding Ridings:
Delta North
Delta South
Surrey-Newton
Surrey-Tynehead
Surrey-White Rock



15 05 05 HM
Let me say this. Jargup Brar was NOT elected fairly in the by-election. The problem was the supporter of the BC Liberals did not went to the polls and vote. The turn out in the by-election was a dissapointing of around 43%. Speaking of which, the government that is in power does not usually win a by-election. This time, the supports will go out and get the their votes out.
16 05 05 Krispy
This riding will definitely go to the NDP. On Sunday, the Province and Times-Colonist reported on Carol James' visit to Sikh temples, saying that a large segment of the Sikh leadership is endorsing the NDP. Balwant Singh Gill, a Sikh temple leader, said it succinctly when he stated that the Campbell Liberals have done nothing for the Sikh community, and has broken their promises made in the 2001 election.
The recent by-election in Surrey-Panorama Ridge was no flash in the pan. There is a deep-set dissatisfaction with the Campbell Liberal government in the South Asian community, and a $250,000 last minute election commitment to building bleachers at a sports field, while ethnic workers in the health care system have had their jobs privatized and wages cut by 15% and more, will not convince many people in this community.
12 05 05 Fabian B
I agree with Ghouris that it appears Surrey-Panorama Ridge is now leaning to the Liberals and feel the prediction on this site should, at least, be altered to 'Too Close to Call.' Passing through this riding, I see almost equal numbers of NDP and Liberal signs on private property unlike the situation in Newton and to a more significant degree in Green Timbers where NDP signs are more dominant. The Indo-Canadian community in this riding is deeply split over both candidates and their campaign signs can be easily seen near the entrance to the Great Sikh temple on Scott Road. In the event of a 50-50 or even a 60-40 split towards Brar within this influential community, Hans will still win because the non-Sikh electorate in other parts of the riding--especially the Panorama Village and Panorama Ridge portions--are higher income and tend to be strongly pro-Liberal.
Frankly, on election day, we may encounter a 4-3 split in the number of Liberal to NDP seats in Surrey or 5-2(in the event of an Igali win in Newton.) However, Igali is in a more tricky situation in Newton because Bains was chosen as the NDP candidate there 6 months ago and enjoys a head start in campaigning among the Indo-Canadian community over his Liberal rival. I don't know if Campbell's recent announcement of a possible second hospital in Surrey by 2008 will help or hinder Liberal chances in Surrey since while the Mayor, Doug McCallum, supports the Liberals, this move may appear belated or desperate to some voters. While I will vote for the Liberals on May 17 because of their fine economic record, I am not too impressed by the Premier's action here. Surrey's health needs have grown exponentially with a booming population of more than 400,000 people and the decision on building a new hospital should have been made many years ago under the previous NDP administration(when Surrey was represented by 2 powerful Cabinet level Ministers under Hammell and Penny Priddy who accomplished little here!) However, Campbell should have rectified this situation several months ago before the election when the economy was clearly turning around--not on the last week of an election campaign. It speaks of a certain lack of foresight on the Premier's part since he could have more effectively neutralised the NDP's attacks on the Liberal health record in Surrey had he committed to a second hospital before the start of the election.
12 05 05 Cynic
I work here, and drive right through the constituency every day. More and more Liberal signs are popping up. The Indo wars are over; Wally Oppal is making a bigger difference here than in Fraserview. They're going home, and Bob Hans will win by 10%.
09 05 05 ghoris
I think this should be put back to 'Too Close To Call'. (The Tyee actually has it going Liberal at the moment.) I'm not familiar with Indo-Canadian politics in B.C., but if they're anything like Manitoba's then I suspect a lot of Brar's support in the by-election came from the Indo-Canadian community supporting the Indo-Canadian candidate in the by-election, party labels be damned. Add to this the fact that the Liberal candidate at the by-election was unpopular for her extreme social views and for squandering millions of taxpayer dollars on legal fees to litigate her book bans all the way to the Supreme Court. Now the Liberal candidate has no such baggage and appears to have substantial support in the Indo-Canadian community. Add this to the fact that the demographics of this riding favour the Liberals and you have a race that's too close to call, if not leaning Liberal.
29 04 05 CF
Jagrup Brar will be in the BC history books as having the shortest MLA carreer in history. His Indo-Canadian base has completely abandoned him to join forces with his BC Liberal opponent Bob Hans, who is also Indo-Canadian. The pundits said themselves that when they went to the BC Liberal rally in Surrey they recognized dozens of people who were at Jarup Brar's celebration party at the byelection who appears to have switched sides. Surrey Panorama-Ridge had a bizarre hic-cup as an NDP riding, but on May 17 its going back to the BC Liberals.
29 04 05 Fabian B
This Riding is currently the NDP's to lose but by May 17, that may change. Jagrup Brar is a hero in the Indo-Canadian community but the Liberal candidate--Bob Mans--is an Indo-Canadian trucking magnate has his own active supporters in this riding. Traditionally, this is one of the wealthier ridings of North Surrey and parts of the Panorama Ridge Neighbourhood are very exclusive(like Shaughnessy is in Vancouver). But Mary Polak, the Liberal candidate lost in her 2004 by-election bid partly because she was a Caucasian candidate running in a strongly Indo-Canadian dominated riding. In some Indo-Canadian polling stations, she won only 10% of the Indo-Canadian vote whereas Brar got 85-90%; hence, the surprising margin of Brar's win. The result was certainly a disaster for the Liberals but Campbell seems to have learned his lesson by getting an Indo-Canadian candidate to fight Brar. He recently held a rally in this riding a few days ago and won a tremendous ovation from Mans' supporters. If Mans can energise his supporters and eat into the Indo-Canadian vote(at say 30-35%), he might have a shot at defeating Brar. If not, Brar comes up on top.
There is currently many more NDP Brar signs on private property in this riding than Liberal Mans signs(I know as I pass by this riding almost daily to work) but since this is a Provincial election rather than a meaningless By-Election, people may switch to Mans to get a government MLA in Victoria. At present though, I agree that Brar has a huge edge in name recognition in contrast to the unknown Mans but anything can change in politics and 3 weeks in politics is an eternity! And Campbell will continue introducing and championing Mans and Igali in his scheduled Surrey campaign stops to the media.
18 04 05 JC
This is now an official NDP Lock, Tony Bhullar lost the nomination and might run as an independent in Surrey-Panorama Ridge, this is sure to hurt Bob Hans, the liberal candidate and Jagrup Brar will win. But anyway, Brar was going win, still.
05 04 05 Mike Mulroney
For some reason, many of the posters don’t seem to understand why my anecdote about Phil Edmonston or Nick’s anecdote about Rex Barnes are relevant. They are relevant because they demonstrate the simple fact that the results in by-elections can differ significantly from the results of general elections. Nobody is implying that the result of the Surrey-Panorama Ridge by-election is as imbalanced with the political tide as the examples we gave. Nobody is implying that the NDP won the riding in a crazy, illogical, inexplicable, by-election fluke. We are simply pointing out that for various reasons, some of which I have listed below, by election results do often differ and differ greatly. Consequently they are not good indicators of how the riding will vote in a general election.
I don’t see how A. Vancouverite inferred from our use of these anecdote examples that we believe all by-elections are always completely out of whack. Obviously his/her logic is lacking: ironic from someone who demands that others “think of reality” (which I assume means “exercise logic”). As you point out in your fruity rebuttal, there are obvious differences between the situations of the Surrey by-election and of the two examples, as there are differences between the degree of imbalance between the different results and political tides. However, the fact remains that by elections are unreliable indicators of political tide. Don’t read into this argument anymore because it’s a fact.
The NDP won the recent Surrey-Panorama Ridge by-election handily, and there are many explanations.
(1) The by-election was the first chance for the NDP to win a seat since the landslide of 2001. Everyone, myself included, felt that the BC Liberals won too many seats for their own good. After the last election, the NDP were denied official party status, having fallen two seats short of the minimum of four that entitle a party to official status: a move made by a still-angry, still-giddy from election landslide, then-invincible new Premier, who wanted to give the NDP one final slap in the face for running the province into the ground. In retrospect, he made the wrong decision. This by-election was a chance for the province, as much as for the NDP, to help out their overworked opposition, and get one step closer to making them official.
(2) This by-election took place near the peak of the NDP in the polls. Everyone was excited about this opportunity to send a third NDP MLA and a message to Victoria.
(3) The Liberal candidate was a social conservative, and many residents were voting against her, while liberal friendly voters didn’t particularly want to vote for her.
(4) By-elections are somewhat symbolic, and the electorate wanted to make a statement: that the BC Liberals don’t have a stranglehold on power anymore.
This time the Liberals have a more moderate candidate and have a huge lead in the Lower Mainland. In 2001 they did better than the provincial average and the NDP did worse; perhaps the riding isn’t as strong for the NDP as it was.
28 03 05 S. Bains
There was nothing wrong with Polak as a candidate - no Government had won a By-Election since 1981 and with 75 sitting Liberals, the chance of the BC Libs pulling off the By-Election last fall were not great.
The NDP will win this seat because the BC Libs have not been able to find a high-profile Indo-Cdn candidate. Trucking company owner Bob Hans will win the BC Lib nomination in 2 weeks and nobody knows who the heck the guy is! The only interesting issue will be to see what Tony Bhullar does - will he run as an independent in a Surrey riding and make life difficult for the BC Libs?
21 03 05
I don't think the comparison to Rex Barnes is realistic for three reasons: he won by only 4% as opposed to 20%, the riding boundaries were altered between the by-election and general election, he was elected as a Progressive Conservative and defeated under Reform Party III a.k.a. the Conservatives. If the liberals want to win this, they need an Indo-Canadian candidate and a strong one. Mary Polak was a terrible candidate and add to the fact she is a social conservative, I am actually glad she lost despite the fact I am strong Gordon Campbell supporter. Social Conservatives can go join their friends in the Reform Party III and try steer the party back to the right since it even seems to be moderating after the most recent convention. We are a party of fiscal conservatives and social liberals and we don't need them and there narrow minded views. Or they can go South of the border and join the Republicans who haven't moderated one bit and are just as extreme as the Reform party was in its early days.
20 03 05 JC
You know, I think I might have to change my prediction. Brar still has the advantage here do to the fact he won in a by election. But because Mary Polak is nowhere near this riding and because in a recent poll in the Lower Mainland showed the libs at 51%. This might go to Tony Bhullar, but if it does it's going to be a very close race.
16 03 05 Cornpop
Brar will be back. He has shown that he can handle himself in the leg, as well as stand up for his constituents. The BC Liberals lost this riding for the 2005 election by letting the NDP win it in the by-election.
14 03 05 A. Vancouverite
Let's consider the facts shall we?
First, the NDP would've won this riding in 96' by 6 or 7 points, had it existed. So it leans ever so slightly to the NDP.
Second Jagrup Brar is far more accomplished as an individual than Tony Bhullar who is now running in this riding. Tony Bhullar is a very weak candidate, and has been a total embarrassment in Surrey Newton. He had legal troubles earlier in his candidacy, so he's not going to get any individual bonus. He gained no positive prominence within the community so he will have to rely on the provincial campaign to see how things go for him. Whereas Jagrup Brar has a positive profile especially with regards to fighting against hospital cuts in Surrey. Also he's a rather moderate New Democrat who has previous business experience, so it would be very difficult for Bhullar to paint him as a tax and spend maniac. Yet another reason Bhullar would have to rely upon the provincial campaign to get enough coattails to possibly be elected.
Third, a 20% victory in a by-election is nothing to scoff at. And while the Liberals may close to within ten points this isn't a traditionally Liberal riding anyways, it's more of an NDP leaning swing riding, all of this means the Liberals are the clear underdogs and it's therefore prudent to predict an NDP win. Frankly by-elections from the rest of the country such as Phil Edmunston's (a riding with no previous NDP history) or Rex Barnes' a riding with a strong Liberal (not PC or Conservative) history are of little to no importance here. It's like trying to pretend that a Pineapple and Bannana are the same thing because both are fruits. There's no point. It may be applicable in some other ridings such as the time the NDP won a by-election in Vernon, but that was presicley because the NDP had no previous history there. As you can see by the 1996 re-distributed results they have a strong base here!
10 03 05 user
Even the NDP won the by-election, it does not meen that the NDP will win this seat again. The government usually in power does not win the seat. The BC Liberals WILL be gain this seat again.
11 03 05 Mike Mulroney
I am not trying to CONVINCE the voters of Surrey-Panorama Ridge how to vote by telling anecdotes, as “initial” misconstrues in a passionate rebuttal attempt. This is hardly the forum to convince anyone of how to vote; the people using or reading this site, quite frankly, already know who exactly they plan to vote for. It is very clear how “initial” “feels about his/her candidate;” looking at other postings by “initial” there is a clear bias towards the NDP candidates, and from mine there is a clear bias towards Liberal candidates. On this website, we attempt to PREDICT the outcome of the election in certain ridings, which is how my anecdote is relevant. I mentioned the story about Edmonston to point out how by-elections are not only a poor indicator of a riding’s voting tendencies, but also sometimes politically tangential. To effectively predict this riding, we cannot simply look at the by-election result; we have to look at the tendencies. As I previously pointed out, in the 2001 election, the BC Liberals did better than the provincial average here, and the BC NDP did worse. Given that the BC Liberals are expected to win the general election and the popular vote, albeit by a much smaller margin, the BC Liberals should retake Surrey-Panorama Ridge.
09 03 05 Nick Boragina
I'm just writing this to point out that By-Election results do not always carry over to become general election results. Anyone remember Rex Barnes federally? This one is TCTC in my books
28 02 05 Initial
Although the race will be closer with Mary Pollack no longer running in this riding for the Liberals. An anecdote about Phil Edmonston will not change the way that the people in this riding feel about their candidate. In the by-election, Gordon Campbell and other Liberal cabinet members campaigned in the riding, and it had litttle effect. During the by-election campaign the BC Liberals illegally spent large sums of our tax paying dollars on promotional advertising. It did not help them to win. The by-election was a landslide win and may be closer in May, but there is no way that it will revert back to the BC Liberals.
26 02 05 Mike Mulroney
Any political junkie could tell you that by-election results are no indication of how a riding will do in an election. Anything can happen in a by-election. Phil Edmonston, the creator of the Lemon Aid Car Buyer's guides, won a seat for the NDP in Quebec in a 1990 by election. He was the first and, to date, the only NDP ever elected in the Province. Edmonston lost his re-election.
The reason that Surrey-Panorama Ridge elected Brar in the by-election is because it was an opportunity to send a third opposition member to Victoria. Turnouts for by-elections are always much lower than for the general elections. The NDP had a lot more at stake in the by-election that the BC Liberals; if the had lost NDP lost, they’d only have 2 MLAs, and would appear to have no momentum.
For this general election, one has to take into account the voting history of the riding. Last election, the BC Liberals were ahead of the provincial average, and the NDP were quite far behind. Because the BC Liberals are expected to win this election and the popular vote (albeit not by as much as in 2001), they should retake the riding.
23-Feb-05 JC
A By-Election was held just a meer two months ago and Brar won. Simply no way he is going to lose this one after a few months.
23-Feb-05 M. Lunn
When you consider the size of the win in the most recent by-election, this should stay NDP. While it is true by-elections favour opposition parties and not to mention the fact this time they are planning to run Tony Bhullar as opposed to Mary Polak who should be able to capture some of the Indo-Canadian vote, there is still too big a deficit for them to overcome in order to win this riding. However, I do think the Liberals will hold the neighbouring ridings of Surrey-Cloverdale and Surrey-Tynehead.
23-Feb-05 IGB
Jagrup Brar was elected fairly decisively in a by-election a scant few months ago where the turnout was almost as much as it was in the general election in 2001. I don't think voters are going to change their minds this soon. Brar and the NDP with a big win.


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