Election Prediction Project

British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
10:19 PM 15/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:01 PM 24/02/2005

Constituency Profile

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John Clarke
The Platinum
Antonio Francisco Ferreira
The Sex
John Gordon Ince
Green Party
Janek Patrick John Kuchmistrz
BC Liberal
Lorne Mayencourt
Democratic Reform BC
Ian McLeod
Tim Stevenson
Work Less
Lisa Voldeng

BC Liberals:
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:12.42%
Area (km2):12
Pop Density:4416.67

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
North Vancouver-Lonsdale
Vancouver-Mount Pleasant
Vancouver-Point Grey
West Vancouver-Capilano

14 05 05 M. Lunn
If Larry Campbell has his way, Lorne Mayencourt would get his ass kicked, but I don't think that will happen. I would give Tim Stevenson a 60% chance of winning and Lorne Mayencourt a 40% chance of winning. Predictions Tim Stevenson 47%, Lorne Mayencourt 43%, Greens 8% Other 2%. I hope I am wrong since despite Lorne Mayencourt being a controversial MLA, I fully support his safe streets act since I am sick and tired of panhandlers and squeegie boys always harrassing me. It seems unlike most MLAs who aren't well known, most people either love or hate Lorne Mayencourt.
13 05 05 Brent
I'm not sure what planet or riding Sam is at, but I can tell you that ALOT of the LGBT community here in the West End(including myself) WILL be voting in this election, and many will NOT be supporting Mr. Mayencourt. Your claim is laughable if not ridiculous. Where the heck did you get your information from on the LGBT turnout in elections?
My final prediction based on the past 4 weeks of campaigning:
NDP: 47, Lib:37, Green 13.
09 05 05 Sam
... a few months ago, I'd have called this riding for Tim Stevenson. That being said, things have changed. Polling numbers have tightened up, turning this race into a dead heat. Second, the LGBT vote simply won't matter as much as many people think it will, because, simply put, most people in that community don't get out and vote. Beyond that, the population growth in Vancouver-Burrard has been in 3 key areas: Yaletown, Coal Harbour, and North False Creek (aka Concord Pacific...technically not Yaletown though everyone likes to pretend it is). All of those areas have one thing in common: they are highly pricey. The demographic that tends to live in those areas is wealthy. If you look at the median income of people in those three areas, you'll find that they overwhelmingly support the BC Liberals. So, the expansion in that area will more than make up for any support that Mr. Mayencourt may have lost due to vile and vicious spin and attempted character assassination from the left. I would submit that Mr. Stevenson and his campaign are not in the position they'd like to be in right now, with so little time left before the election, and their lead in the polls having all but evaporated, I'd expect that by election day, the monitors will either move this riding into the too close to call, or Liberal column. And on a final note, to the guy commenting about signs, the lack of Mayencourt signs was due to the same reason as the lack of BC Liberal signs all over the city...problems with the manufacturer. You can see a couple of Lorne's signs in the windows of the building right beside the Time Stevenson campaign office.
09 05 05 DJ
I have a sneaky feeling that the electorate in Vancouver Burrard will elect John Ince, Leader of the BC Sex Party. Just the novelty alone of electing someone from this party is enticing enough to mark an X.
06 05 05 Bob Cline
Holy smokes! This page is spin city! I can't believe people are spending so much time to try and pretend that this riding is interesting to talk about. The NDP is up 20 points from the last election, the Liberals are down 10 points, and there's the ball game: Stevenson won 49% in 1996 and he'll get 49% again. The Liberals got 37% in 1996 and they'll do a little better this time, but not more than 3 points. As important as Mayencourt (and to a lesser degree Stevenson) thinks he is in this world, this riding is going to go down just as it should. A traditional NDP riding being reclaimed after an anomolous year. And people can blah, blah, spin, spin all they want on this list. There's a good reason that the hosts have called this one for the NDP -- because that's whose going to win it; by 9 or 10 points. Local factors will barely play in. The only people who care about "local factors" or the candidates or any of the rubbish being bandied about are people who've already made up their minds. This one is in the bag. People desperate to try and spin a list serve as an electoral tool should look at closer races like Easy Kootenay, Vancouver-Fairview, and the Cariboo.
04 05 05 David
This riding was a swing riding - I might have even given it to the NDP 3 weeks ago. I think now we've seen exactly the right campaign from the Liberals and exactly the wrong one from the Dark Side. Lorne will be re-elected in a squeeker.
02 05 05
It will certainly be closer this time around, but I don't think we can call this one for the BC Liberals yet. The BC Liberals currently have a 10 point lead in Vancouver/Burnaby/New West and this riding the liberals tend to be 10 points behind the average of the region meaning it is probably a neck/neck race at the moment and maybe the NDP even has a slight lead.
02 05 05 Buck
Now that Larry Campbell (the most popular politician in the province of BC) is actively campaigning for Tim, Lorne is toast. Larry is more correctly campaigning against Lorne than campaigning for Tim. I thought that this was going to be close, but Lorne is increasingly showing himself to be cruel and narcissistic.
02 05 05 Ida Slapter
There are not many signs in this riding - I've seen total approx. 10 signs since the writ was dropped. However, all 10 have been for Stevenson - NONE for Lorne. For a guy who tends to run a tight campaign in overtime, its suprising (and telling) that there appears to be no visible support for Mayencourt whatsoever. I believe Van Burrard is in for a change of MLA.
01 05 05 Brent
First of all, I fail to see how Mr. Stevenson's association with the popular Mr. Campbell is of a disadvantage...I'm sure Mr. Mayencourt would rather have the good Mayor on his side, no? This is just icing on the cake for Mr. Stevenson. Furthermore, I wonder where the supposed lead of Mayencourt that Mr. Hardy mentions is garnered from? Where's the beef, Mr. Hardy? Do you have polling numbers you wish to share to back this claim? If so, let's see them...
01 05 05 RPT
It was like the BC Liberals hit the jackpot the other night when Mayor Larry went on the news campaigning for Tim Stevenson. The closer people can associate Tim with COPE, the better Lorne's chances become. The mayor is extremely popular, but I assure you his popularity has to do with how strong he has been standing up to the socialist wing of COPE. Once he starts campaigning for re-election on his record, I assure you the people won't give him such a free ride. Although the mayor is popular these days, COPE is definitely NOT. Tim, although considered COPE-Lite, is COPE. And for people in Vancouver-Burrard who vote based on what's best for the economy and social programs in this province, I assure you they don't want anyone from COPE anywhere near the $32 Billion Provincial cheque book.
30 04 05 a-speaker-of -truth
In response to Mr.Hardy's comments about the recent Roundhouse all-candidates meeting, I was there at that meeting and I can tell you without partisan bias that Mr. Hardy presents with, that Stevenson's supporters were as numerous as Mayencourt's and from my vantage point the eyerolling occurred about equally for both the NDP and BC Liberal candidates. The one difference I did notice was that Mayencourt defended and spouted the party line faithfully; whereas Stevenson was quoted on occasion to disagree with NDP platform/policies. Both Mayencourt and Stevenson sound and look terribly stale...to the point of being annoying &/or obnoxious...especially Mayencourt...How can that guy look at himself in the mirror each morning?...speaking about James Chamberland the way he did made it sooooooo clear to me that Mayencourt is rather irrational and I found it difficult to listen to him from that point on...If I had to say there was a loser at this debate Mayencourt would have to be my selection...yes, Stevenson may very well come across as somewhat droll, but for the most part he is articulate and logical when responding to questions asked of him... Mayencourt: aggressive and shrill.
27 04 05 initial
As a gay man I have to marvel at the tunnel vision that seems to occur among many politically aware individuals in my community. I'll echo previous comments that have been made about the significant demographic shift that has taken place in Vancouver Burrard in the last 10 years. Lorne Mayencourt's election in 2001 was not just the result of the general dissatisfaction in the electorate with the New Democratic government of the day. It was also largely the result of the fact that the young (and not so young) urban professionals who now inhabit Yaletown, the Downtown core and Coal Harbour are socially progressive but also fiscally conservative... a mix which is reflected in the left wing of the Liberal party (where Mr. Mayencourt also sits). I also have to say that while I may not necessarily agree with the Safe Streets legislation, most of the people I know who live in Vancouver Burrard (but are outside of the Davie/Denman/Burrard/Robson quadrangle) do agree with it. The demographics of this riding have changed significantly, but the gay and lesbian press and most gay and lesbian activists (along with all of the primarily gay men who don't venture beyond the aforesaid quadrangle) have failed to recognize it.
Keep in mind that this is the same group who during the last federal election were predicting the crushing defeat of Hedy Fry in Vancouver Centre (largely the same riding boundaries, barring Kits) at the hands of Kennedy Stewart. I predicted that Hedy would be re-elected, but by a smaller number of votes. She was re-elected by approximately 4,000 votes, and interestingly, the only polling stations she lost (besides a couple in Mount Pleasant) where in the quadrangle. Wake up, folks, this isn't the Vancouver Burrard of Emery Barnes.
26 04 05 partisanrightwinghack
The reason Burrard's in play is because Mayencourt's signature issues mirror those of the riding: lower taxes and a tougher stance on petty crime.
Stevenson was the MLA on watch when the economy and crime rate deteriorated; people won't return to him unless they see some compelling new vision that matches Mayencourt's safe streets stuff. The media and the social activists are all up in arms, but the majority quietly like Mayencourt - note that even Vaughn Palmer put it in the "maybe" column a month or so ago.
26 04 05 Gordon Hardy
If campaigning alone counts for something in an election(and it does), then this riding is going to Liberal MLA Lorne Mayencourt. While Mayencourt has been vigorously campaigning for months, his opponent, the NDP's Tim Stevenson, has been astonishingly slow in kicking off his campaign. Mayencourt and a strong cadre of supporters have been mainstreeting throughout Vancouver-Burrard for weeks while Stevenson's mainstreeting efforts have been spotty and limited to Davie Village and Denman Street. One has to wonder if Stevenson has an aversion to old-style politicking. He looks gloomy and morose street-side in comparison to the effervescent Mayencourt.
At an April 26 all-candidates' meeting at the Roundhouse, Stevenson appeared with only a modest contingent of supporters, not the usual army that show up for NDP candidates in Vancouver-Burrard. Instead, it was Mayencourt who turned up with a feisty bunch of supporters who used the opportunty to attack Stevenson and his record with gusto. One has to wonder if Stevenson isn't facing a shortage of volunteers. No wonder: it would be hard to be inspired to volunteer for a candidate for whom campaigning seems an enormous and unpleasant chore.
Apart from a shortage of supporters, Stevenson suffered at the all-candidates' meeting because of his slow, cumbersome speaking style. Even some of his supporters were rolling their eyes. By contrast, Mayencourt was fast and agile despite some tough questions.
A candidate's vigour and effectiveness in campaigning are not the only things that influence the outcome of a campaign but they are certainly a factor. A year ago, I would have guessed that Stevenson would take this riding. But, based on what I have seen so far, Mayencourt has developed a lead that will be difficult for the sluggish Stevenson to surpass.
25 04 05 Brent
Once again, I stand by my prediction well before the campaign officially started on the 19th that the NDP's Stevenson will take Burrard with about 47% of the vote to Liberal Mayencourt with about 37%, and the Greens running around 13%--the exact reversal of the last election, and much in the same pattern as the 1996 election, where the NDP was running similar numbers provincially. Why?
I would like to echo the comments made by others here that in the last federal election the NDP garnered a very respectable 32% of the popular vote(only 8%% behind Libereal Hedy Fry), despite the so-called "Liberal" growth of Yaletown and Coal Harbour; on average the provincial NDP polls at least 10-12% higher than its federal counterparts....you do the math.
Furthermore, Larry Campbell's reported intention to aid Stevenson in his campaign does nothing but bolster his chances in Burrard....
24 04 05
Contrary to what Yalie says, the NDP are not anymore closer to the centre than their federal counterparts. This maybe true in Saskatchewan and Manitoba but not BC. The only reason many who vote liberal federally vote NDP provincially is because the NDP doesn't stand a living hell in hope of winning federally so people vote for their first choice amongst the two parties likely to form government: Liberals or Conservatives. Secondly not all Conservatives vote liberal provincially. There are many who voted conservative simply to throw out the liberals, not because they supported Stephen Harper's right wing platform, so I don't think you can assume people vote purely along ideological lines since unlike in the US, most Canadians don't tend to identify themselves as right, centre, or left wing so it is really the party's message as opposed to their ideological position on the political spectrum that determine how people vote. That is not to say the NDP won't win here. I will make one prediction: the NDP will win by a large margin in the West End portion while the liberals by a large margin in Yaletown and Coal Harbour. If someone has the population numbers for those areas than I can make a formal prediction for this riding.
22 04 05 Old Hack
At the very least, this riding should be in the "too close to call" category. Mayencourt has a lot of things going for him, including good name recognition from his various initiatives (going after panhandlers is popular with all but the most die hard New Democrats), plenty of money and organization, and some shifting demographics in the riding.
Stevenson also has good name recognition, and the NDP will pour considerable resources into this riding as they progressively abandon ship on several other lost cause Lower Mainland ridings.
This one has been shaping up to be a brawl for the last couple of years, ever since Stevenson indicated that he wanted his old job back. Given that a BC Liberal overall victory is an increasingly foregone conclusion, I'll be watching this riding with interest on election night.
20 04 05 yalie
Much of the polling for Lower Mainland, includes the NDP dead-zones in the Fraser Valley, which obviously skews it toward the Liberals. A Globe and Mail poll found the GVRD to be very close: 44 Libs-40 NDP. And it's most likely the NDP is running ahead and the Libs behind this figure in Van proper.
Despite "first name, last initial's" ridiculous claim that the BC NDP is dominated by the far-left, Carole James has a very moderate platform. Jeffrey Simpson recently commented in the Globe (Apr. 16) that the BC NDP platform is so modest, the federal NDP would barely recognize it. And Simpson isn't some wild-eyed left-wing ideologue hoping for the NDP to adapt the Regina Manifesto - he is a centrist and in fact an advocate of the Third Way!
The BC NDP is more moderate than its federal counterpart, and over the years, about 25-50% of BC NDP voters don't vote NDP federally. Nowadays most of these votes go the federal Grits. In Van Center, Kennedy Stewart received an impressive 32% against Hedy Fry. And guess what - Hedy Fry the left-Liberal is much closer to the BCNDP than to the BC Libs ideologically. So a good chunk of Fry votes will go to Stevenson. Mayencourt will have the Gary Mitchell voters on his side - but won't be able to get more than half of the Fry votes. And I'll bet you the average Yaletown hipster is closer ideologically to Susan Sarandon than to Milton Friedman.
Not to mention the Libs polled 10 points below they did provincewide, and while the Libs will probably prevail, plenty of New Democrats will be elected. This all adds up to an easy NDP win. I think Brent's numbers are on the mark.
17 04 05 CF
Mayencourt will win b/c of his significant media coverage- Love him or hate him, his name in the news is a positive thing for his re-election. Tim is a "has-been" and his work with 'Vancouver "Silly" Council' is not getting him any points. Mayencourt has proven to be one of the most active and vocal members of the government back-bench and will he be re-elected as a result - not even close.
16 04 05 Pundit
This riding has only existed since 1991, before that there was no equivilant because the city of Vancouver had the 2 member ridings before. The area covered by the current riding was within a 2 member riding that extended to all of the downtown eastside - currently the strongest area of NDP support in BC and then as well. So the 2 member riding was won by the NDP even though the west side of it was not all that pro NDP.
The Vancouver Burrard is a natural Liberal area - the Liberals have held it federally since 1993 and it was one the few BC ridings to elect a Liberal after 1968.
Your typical average apolitical westender has a few big issues - not being taxed to death (note that few people there gay or straight have childern), having safe streets to walk along - Denman Village is about feeling safe walking the streets, agressive panhandlers do not make people feel safe. And finally, equality of rights - people notice that this government had a gay cabinet minister get married.
Meanwhile Tim Stevenson is burning his bridges with COPE Classic and alienating the hard left, just when he needs every vote.
Lorne Maynecourt will return
07 04 05 BLJ
Prior to 2001, the NDP held this riding over nine straight elections. In 1996 the NDP had around 49% of the vote (around 10%) higher than the provincial average.
The incumbent also seems to have some negatives - likely NDP gain.
08 04 05 A. Vancouverite
While I'd admit that the type of growth in this riding will help the Liberals somewhat, it's being overrated by the Liberal supporters in this riding. First off much of the growth in Coal Harbour isn't from people who actually live there, it's from rich foreigners or other non-residents who own holiday apartments. As is obvious these people can't vote. With regards to Yaletown not all of the new condos are particularly la-de-da, I would many of them as quite middle class it's just that they are urban and modern which doesn't automatically mean the NDP has no chance at doing respectably within them. As such I can't see the Liberals finishing more than five points up on their 96' totals.
Hedy Fry, regardless of her eccentricities, is seen as a more left-leaning Liberal. Left leaning Liberals are the classic sort of Liberal that appeals to provincial NDP federal Liberal supporters. Lorne Mayencourt is obviously not a mildly left leaning Liberal. The popular Mayor, Larry Campbell, will be campaigning for his friend and ally Tim Stevenson so that's a bonus on the optics front for the NDP. Also with regards to the federal results, Burrard, which makes up much of the federal seat of Vancouver-Centre, was widely seen to be winnable for the NDP. As we know the provincial NDP polls higher compared to the federal NDP. And the federal Conservatives finished a distant third and the NDP finished only 8 points behind the Liberals. It seems the "strategic voting" thing scared a lot of federal NDP supporters into voting Liberal since the federal Conservatives never had a realistic shot at winning the riding. Since Cons. supporters are the most likely people to vote BC Liberal in Vancouver, and since the federal NDP supporters are most likely to vote NDP the battle will be over the federal Liberal supporters. I would think should they break in a 45/45 fashion for the BC Liberals and the BC NDP, a realistic assumption considering that the provincial NDP gets a lot of federal Liberal supporters in the lower mainland. So I'll stand by my prediction unless something massive happens during the campaign.
03 04 05 ghoris
I agree with all of the previous posters that the demographics in this riding have shifted significantly in the Liberals' favour over the past decade. I disagree with the posters who have said that the 'urbane, yuppie'-types who live in Yaletown or Coal Harbour are just as likely to vote NDP as they are Liberal. I think these folks know where their bread is buttered, in terms of their own bottom line, and will vote for the party more likely to give them a good deal (low taxes, more job opportunities for professionals and upper-income workers) and it's the Liberals. 99% of people in Burrard probably have no idea who Mary Polak is or that Lorne Mayencourt campaigned for her. The Liberals are frankly not perceived as a socially-conservative party, how much of this is image and how much is reality I don't know - I'm not a member of the Liberal party.
The race will be competitive mostly because both leading candidates are total duds, but I'd say at this point it's too close to call. In fact, I'd say that Vancouver-Kensington (as of today rated TCTC) is a safer bet for the NDP than Burrard. If the Liberals maintain their current lead in the polls through to election day, I'd expect Mayencourt to hang on. If the NDP picks up a little steam, Stevenson could squeak in.
28 03 05 M. Lunn
I am not sure how much Lorne Mayencourt's campaigning for Mary Polak will hurt him. I should remind people that Paul Martin campaigned for opponents of gay rights such as Pat O'Brien, Tom Wappel, and Paul Steckle in the last federal election, yet the liberals still won this riding. As for Mike Harris being shut out of Toronto, that is not totally true. He didn't win in the downtown areas but won all the 905 belt ridings plus the outer ridings in the 416 area code. On the contrary Stephen Harper won zero seats in the 416 area code and won only 6 out of the 28 905 belt ridings and only 4 in the GTA area, whereas Mike Harris won all the GTA ridings in the 905 area code and 23/28 905 belt ridings. Besides, unlike in Ontario where they have a centrist party, BC has no centrist party so the right-leaning liberals will go for the BC Liberals and the left-leaning liberals will go NDP. I am guessing the liberals will get around 40% while the NDP around 45%, however with the demographic changes I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers were the exact reverse. Also for the person who says the NDP almost won this riding, that was mostly the West End polls. As someone who worked on Gary Mitchell's campaign there was a very positive response to the Conservatives in Yaletown and Coal Harbour and it was only at the last moment that voters that switched to the liberals due to Randy White's stupid comment about using the notwithstanding clause regularly. Since the BC Liberals have never entertained the idea of using the notwithstanding clause and Gordon Campbell would never tolerate a candidate to mouth off, like that, he will capture most of those voters. The real issue here is which part of the Downtown has a larger turnout. If it is Yaletown and Coal Harbour, liberal win, West End, NDP win.
28 03 05 Pundit
The NDP is not very safe in this area. Lorne Maynecourt managed to come forward with his Safe Streets Act - very popular in the West End. He managed to do something that was really wanted by his consituents.
The area also went Liberal Federally which are in large part the same people as the provincial party.
23 03 05 DL
I don't want to argue forever about whether or not the BC Liberals are social conservatives, but suffice it to say that Mayencourt by enthusiastically campaigning for a vicious homophobe like Mary Pollak has shown that he likes to suck up to people who hate gays if it will win him brownie points with Campbell's backroom operatives. For a gay person to support him would be like for a Jew to vote for someone who claimed to be Jewish but was also an apologist for Ernst Zundel! The Ontario Tories are not particularly "socially conservative" either (Harris did nothing to tamper with abortion rights and his government quietly passed same sex spousal benefits and said nothing about gay marriage etc...) but they still got shellacked in all inner city ridings in Toronto because urban voters don't relate to neo-con anti-urban and pro-suburban agendas.
All that being said, there is a very simple way to forecats the results in Vancouver-Burrard and that is to look at the results of the federal election last June. The federal riding of Vancouver Centre is about 50% made up of the provincial riding of Burrard and the other 50% is large Point Grey and Fairview. The NDP lost in VanCentre by quite a narrow margin but took about 36% of the vote. However, the part of VanCentre that is in Burrard is the part where the NDP does best. Also, the NDP took 36% federally in VanCentre while getting 26% of the province wide popukar vote. It seems clear that win or lose the BC NDP will get at least 40% of the provincial popular vote. In other words, the provincial NDP tends to run anywhere from 10 to 15% higher than the federal NDP. If the NDP vote across vanCentre was 36%, you can assume that in the Burrard part it was probably more like 40% - add the provincial bonus and you get the NDP at 50%. On top of that the federal Liberal candidate in vanCentre was Hedy Fry who is probably about a thousands times more appealing to centre-left voters than any wretched shill for Gordon Campbell and his conservative government. Tons of people who would have voted NDP federally voted strategically for Hedy Fry to stop the Conservatives. In the BC election this will not be a factor. I daresay that the typical "Hedy Fry Liberal" would not piss down Gordon Campbell's throat if his heart was on fire!!
It all adds up to an easy NDP win unless the BC Liberals manage to win the province wide popular vote by 20 points or more.
23 03 05 Politics 101
The day that the NDP nominated Tim Stevenson the Liberals moved this riding into the win column - Tim has baggage from the NDP years and many of us homeowners will have our property tax notices before the vote and Tim may have to explain those increases as well.
Anybody know what the candidates stand is on the gay bars on Davie being open until 3AM?
21 03 05 G. Hardy
The campaign for Vancouver-Burrard hasn't even started and the NDP are already engaged in mud-slinging and character assasination. Desperation, I suppose. Tim Stevenson only barely won the NDP nomination because many in the NDP ranks would have preferred a more vigorous candidate with which to face the energetic Mr. Mayencourt. Well, I guess if you're stuck with the plodding and unaccomplished Tim Stevenson, what else can you do but go on the attack? Example: Mayencourt is attacked and slightly wounded while attempting to defend his constituents from an aggresive panhander until the police arrive. NDP spin: Mayencourt is depicted as the attacking bully. Sure, there are some good NDP folks who are thinking 1996 all over again but they are drinking their own bathwater.
21 03 05 M. Lunn
When I earlier said the BC Liberals were not a social conservative party, I was talking about the party as a whole, not individuals. The fact the party has maintained funding for abortion, preserved the bubble zone and refused to invoke the notwithstanding clause to prevent gay marriage proves they are not a social conservative party. Even the federal liberals have social conservatives within their party i.e. Tom Wappel, Paul Steckle, Pat O'Brien, Paul Szabo and no one claims they are a socially conservative party. As for the person who said that only rich people in the suburbs vote BC Liberals, I wouldn't say that is totally true. On the Olympics referendum, the highest support came from a poll in Yaletown. Anyways with the huge demographic shift, until a riding poll is done, I don't think it would be appropriate to call this riding. The Liberals will win most of the polls in Yaletown and Coal Harbour while the NDP will win most of the polls in the West End. The winner will be determined by whichever side has a higher turnout
20 03 05 politics101
I too think it is too soon to put this in the NDP win column - Tim has plenty of support west of Burrard and North of Robson but not in Yaletown and Coal Harbour where the growth in the riding has been - in politics people vote for or against either the candidate or the party so while many people may not like some of Lorne's antics and publicity stunts those wealthier voters in the riding will remember the Liberals economic politics come election day. If Tim loses will he once again run in the civic election.
20 03 05 Neal
This riding will be evenly split. The NDP & BC Liberal candidates are both carrying heavy backage. Maynecourt's "safe streets" bill is wrong-headed and the sophisticated voters of this riding will recognize it.
As it becomes clear that the Liberals will hold their majority their will be less enthusiasm to hand them carte-blanche especially from this riding. The electorate will respond negatively to the polarization of the BC Liberal party toward the federal conservatives on social issues.
Meanwhile the NDP are running a NDP candidate in Stephenson that is also carrying package from his current position in the split COPE city hall. As well, the NDP's monotone union message will not play to this electorate.
The Green Party candidate, Janek Kuchmistrz has a chance to benefit from an expected even vote split between the two "big" parties. The only pro-STV candidate with fresh ideas and no baggage will have a chance.
17 03 05 JT
This race is clearly too close to call. The NDP supporters like DL and others fail to realize is that much of the gay community simply doesn't vote in elections. And a growing number of them like myself, who are educated and have high disposable incomes, want a fiscally responsible party like the Liberals. We all remember that it was the NDP government who fought gay marriage in the court for years, while it was the Liberals who ultimately decided to allow it. And I hardly think Colin Hansen and Carole Taylor are conversative lunatics. This is an NDP seat to lose - and Tim Stevenson may just lose it - but it's definitely too close to call.
16 03 05 GT
Forgive me for my crusade, but I have to correct Leslee's frequently repeated misinformation. Provincial MLAs elected since 1996 do not collect any pension, 2 terms or not.
16 03 05 yalie
First name, last initial - Class barely matters in urban ridings. Downtown-ish yuppies tend to vote for left-of-center parties. More conservative affluent folks prefer the suburbs or outlying neighborhoods like Point Grey.
15 03 05 michael smith
tim stevenson and the NDP will take this one. lorne has let down this riding on more than one occasion. what with him vocally supporting mary pollack (sp?) in the surrey-panorama by-election, not saying a word when gordo was arrested and convicted of drunk driving, and finally attacking a panhandler and lieing about it to the press, has totally elimminated what credibility he may have once had.
14 03 05 Justin Cheng
This will be a close election and also exciting because it will be a rematch between Tim Stevenson and Lorne Mayencourt. However this riding presently tips towards Mayencourt. Mayencourt's Safe Streets Initiative is an incident in which he displays himself as an independently minded MLA. Stevenson has a lackluster run at city hall, and him running again signals that he really used Civic politics to maintain his campaign. My view: Mayencourt will win with 3-5 points.
10 03 05 DL
To the person who claims that "The BC Liberals are not socially conservative". Where were you last fall when the BC Liberals ran that viciously homophobic Mary Pollak in the Surrey-Panorama Ridge byelection - and Mayencourt enthusiastically supported her - proving that he is more loyal to his party than he is to his fellow gays and lesbians. The small "l" liberal element in the BC Liberals was tiny to begin with and most of it is bailing out: Christy Clark - gone! Gary Collins - gone, Ted Nebeling - gone etc... the backbone of the party is clearly made up of federal Conservative types. I'm sure that popular federal Liberals from BC like Hedy Fry, Ujjal Dosanjh, Stephen Owens etc... will be conspicuous by their absence from anything to do with the BC Liberals this spring.
11 03 05 RPT
Over 20,000 people have moved into Yaletown and Coal Harbour since the 2001 election, making the riding one of the largest in the province with nearly 51,000 eligible voters this time. I assure you that these new residents (I am one in Yaletown) will be voting the usual split for these areas - 60% Liberal 30% NDP and 10% other. I frequently run into people in this riding who will be voting NDP, yet I have yet to run into a single Yaletown resident who voted Liberal last time who doesn't plan on doing the same this time. The people who voted NDP last time will vote NDP with more conviction this time, but the new votes just won't be there. The surprise story won't be that Lorne won re-election, the surprise story on May 17th will be that he won by 10-12 points.
12 03 05 Mike Mulroney
Vancouver-Burrard does traditionally lean NDP, however Mayencourt has a strong personal profile, and has done a good job representing his riding.
“Scott G.” commented that “the Safe Streets Act [was] presumably aimed at shoring up support in his own riding” in support of his argument that Lorne will lose. Initiatives that “shore up support in his riding” would surely help and not hinder his re-election. It sounds like Scott is admitting that Lorne is doing a good job.
“full name” commented that “Lorne Mayencourt’s anti-panhandling crusade has made him appear mean-spirited and his recent physical altercation with a homeless man is bad PR.” I fail to see this physical altercation, where Lorne was attacked and injured would not help to garner sympathy not only for Lorne, but also for his Safe Streets initiative.
Lorne Mayencourt beat Stevenson in 2001 by 18%, which is below average for that election, but still significant. This rematch race should be fairly close, but Mayencourt, who has done a good job as MLA, should win.
13 03 05 first name, last initial
I think the claim made by yalie below, "the NDP (with thanks to federal leader Jack Layton) has changed from a party rooted in the unions to a big tent, small-l liberal party," is a ridiculous one at best. With Chudnovsky (BCTF), Flemming (Communist at UVic), and former cabinet ministers under Glen Clark as their star candidates, I don't think the phrases "big tent" and "small-l liberal" describe the NDP. Everyone knows that the first thing they will do if they get in is raise taxes because they know it's the only way to pay for their promises. Mayencourt will beat out Stephenson here, though not by much.
10 03 05 KH
Lorne Mayencourt has done a great job getting attention for the causes people in the Burrard riding care about. And combine that all the new construction in the riding that will favour the Liberals, Mayencourt win in May.
09 03 05 Leslee
No doubt that this riding will be relatively close...that said, predict Mayencourt is toast...won't get that much sought-after 2nd term (pension)...thorough embarrassment to the GLBT community...ridiculous publicity stunts...and return of a well-known well-respected NDP candidate...depends on get-out-the-vote machine...but Mayencourt really has made a 1st class arse of himself...hmmm Stephenson by 3 pts on E-day...Mayencourt may very well end up living on the streets of the DTE afterall ; )
08 03 05 M. Lunn
To the respondent who said that Toronto doesn't elect Conservatives and San Francisco won't vote Republican even in wealthy areas, I will explain why. While the BC Liberals may have more in common with the Conservatives than Liberals on economic issues, on social issues they are more in line with the federal liberals than Conservatives. Most of the wealthy people in the city are fiscally conservative, but socially liberal, which is why the Conservatives in Canada and Republicans in the US perform poorly in cities since people reject their social conservatism. The BC Liberals ARE NOT a Social conservative party therefore they won't face the same obstacles as most right wing parties in urban areas do. I should remind people that Mike Harris did win seats in Toronto and Brian Mulroney won this seat in both 1984 and 1988 (although this riding did include the more wealthy Point Grey area) and like Gordon Campbell, but unlike Stephen Harper and George Bush they were fiscally conservative, but socially liberal.
07 03 05 Full Name
Lorne Mayencourt has been shooting himself in the foot as of late. His anti-panhandling crusade has made him appear mean-spirited and his recent physical altercation with a homeless man is bad PR. Mayencourt has been too controversial for this riding. Stevenson is soft-spoken and doesn't come with too much baggage.
27 02 05 Matt N
As a Coal Harbour resident, I am glad to see that between my neighbourhood and Yaletown that the Liberals are now clearly in play in this traditional ultra-safe NDP riding. Tim Steveson's ridiculous and arrogant campaign announcement (saying he'd stay in city hall if he won and could do both jobs), his miserable previous campaign, and his weak city hall performance all leave Lorne in a great spot. Lorne has been visible and the Safe Streets Act speaks to alot of law-abiding, taxpaying people in this riding. Liberals hold this riding in somewhat of a surprise.
04 03 05 yalie
This riding should be going NDP with a pretty comfortable margin. The West End has always been a bastion of NDP support. The Liberals won in 2001, true, but I think people voting at the time were voting against the NDP and/or saw the Campbell Liberals as kind of like the federal Liberals, not a party of the hard-right. Now it's pretty clear that Campbell has more in common with Mike Harris or Stephen Harper than he does with Jean Chretien or Paul Martin. Urban voters tend to reject right-wing parties. And that applies even to yuppies. Look at how the affluent urbanites in Seattle, San Francisco, New York and Toronto vote. Not for Republicans/Tories.
Gentrification may be turning Vancouver into the "San Francisco of the north" but I don't see how that necessarily hurts the NDP. In the last mayoral election, in San Francisco (where the median home price far exceeds that of Vancouver) the liberal Democrat just barely prevailed...over a leftist Green! So all this talk about how the condo dwellers in Yaletown are going to be a Liberal bloc is not necessarily true, now that the Liberals have exposed themselves as being a hard-right party and the NDP (with thanks to federal leader Jack Layton) has changed from a party rooted in the unions to a big tent, small-l liberal party.
Now I don't predict the Liberal to do as bad as the Harper Tory who got a dismal 20% here, but Stevenson should win pretty comfortably I think.
28 02 05 Gordon Hardy
In a tight race between the NDP's Tim Stevenson and the Liberal incumbent Lorne Mayencourt, Mayencourt will prevail. While Stevenson remains popular among certain segments of this very heterogenious constituency (e.g. some elements of the gay & lesbian community), his power base is shrinking due to major demographic changes in the riding. Since the 2001 election, thousands of potential new voters have moved into the affluent Coal Harbour and False Creek neighbourhoods. These neighbourhoods traditionally vote Liberal. Stevenson's chances are further hindered by his lacklustre performance as an NDP backbencher who will inherit all the baggage of the NDP decade of government. Mayencourt, by contrast, has proven to be an exceptionally active and prominent backbencher, with his Safe Streets initiative, and now his Safe Schools Act. To be sure, he has made bitter enemies but, in the end, his supporters will outnumber his critics.
24 02 05 David
I believe that the election will come down to two factors: Demographics and Track Record. From a demographical perspective, the riding is dramatically different then it was in '01. In '01, there were roughly 30K eligible voters in VB. This number now stands at 51K, the largest riding in the province. The majority of these new voters are in Yaletown and Coal Harbour, and if individual polling station results from the last election are any indication of how these areas vote (70%+ in favour of Mayencourt), Mayencourt should pick up most of these new votes.
24 02 05 initial
The riding will remain Liberal. Tim Stevenson's stint in City Hall will be more of a negative then a positive - his flip flop on gaming ( the curious point being the unexplained reversal of his much touted anti gaming position while in provincial Politics, when he voted along with the "Cope Classic" councillors without explanation to approve 600 slot machines at the Hasting Racecourse), his poor attendance record in City Hall and his narrow focus will haunt him in his attempt to take back the riding . His lack lustre tenure in City Hall will not stand up to the work of Mayencourt who even as a backbencher has spearheaded a number of initiatives that are appealing to the residents of the Downtown. There is more to this riding then the Gay and Lesbian vote and, that being said, there is more to the Gay and Lesbian vote in this riding than the myth of Tim Stevenson spearheading their rights. Stevenson is to be commended for being a out gay man in politics for years but that is not enough to grab the vote in light of Mayencourt's energetic record
24 02 05 M. Lunn
Although I would say the advantage is for the NDP, I don't think it is a done deal. The population of this riding has increased significantly over the last four years due to high end apartments in Yaletown and Coal Harbour. These people will likely vote liberal, while the NDP support is mostly concentrated in the West End. Besides the reason parties on the right generally do poorly here is because of the large gay community and the fact most right wing parties are socially conservative. With the BC Liberals, they are not socially conservative and their candidate Lorne Mayencourt is openly gay so don't assume all in the gay community will vote NDP.
25 02 05
Mayencourt has been out of touch with his constituency. The story about the postal worker being disaplined after Lorne's office worker challenged him to express his political opinion was abusive beyond belief.
26 02 05 A. Vancouverite
I don't think it will be very close. Two important things to consider. Lorne Mayencourt and Tim Stevenson are both prominent gay men. Even so Stevenson's solid advocate of LGBT rights will be an asset for him in this riding where the LGBT population is quite large. Mayencourt's helping of the socially conservative Mary Polak during the by-election in Surrey Panorama-Ridge will not play well in the Gay community -- furthermore that in co-ordination with Stevenson's relatively moderate standing should drive votes to the NDP.
Another thing that should draw swing voters is Stevenson's status as a United Church minister, it's not something 'weird' or divisive and the guy comes across as just a normal guy. No offence but Mayencourt is a bit flamboyant and I don't mean that in a homosexually flamboyant way, I mean his referring to (COPE) councillor (Jim) Green as a "poverty pimp" it looked tacky and it's embarrassing for the constituents of this riding, they can deal with a bit of strangeness (Hedy Fry) but not insanity (besides Federal Liberals are more bland and centrist BC Liberals are too right-wing for this riding). The construction of all those apartments in yaletown might draw a percent or two higher than 96' for Mayencourt -- but that too isn't a guarantee these people are upwardly mobile middle class people who while they wouldn't identify with a Union boss if that was the NDP candidate -- would identify with a moderate. So I expect Stevenson to win by 10 to 15 points regardless of the Green presence, in fact the Green presence my hurt the Liberals if they can draw upper-middle class votes that would more likely go Liberal than NDP.
24-Feb-05 Scott G.
Mayencourt's main claim to fame since defeating Stevenson in 2001 is the Safe Streets Act, a private member's bill of his that the Liberals passed into law. It was a popular if polarizing move presumably aimed at shoring up support in his own riding.
Stevenson enjoys high name recognition as the former MLA and as a sitting Vancouver councillor who supports mayor Larry Campbell's efforts to turn the left-wing COPE party into a more moderate organization. This latter point should help him with undecided voters this time around, but may alienate some NDP supporters. His experience as a member of Glen Clark's cabinet could likewise be a mixed blessing. At this point I'd give the edge to Stevenson as this seems to be a traditional NDP riding, but it's likely to be close.
23-Feb-05 Brent
Given this riding has been NDP for some time--with the exception of the wipeout in the last election--and given the general disdain for Mr. Mayencourt (will he run again??) by the gay community in this riding for his nonaction on LGBT issues, we should see Van-Burrard return to the NDP fold in the upcoming election, with a reversal of numbers from the last election. Prediction: NDP: 47, Lib: 37, Green: 13.

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