Election Prediction Project

Vancouver-Point Grey
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
11:03 AM 07/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:36 PM 22/02/2005

Constituency Profile

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BC Liberal
Gordon Campbell
Green Party
Damian Kettlewell
The Platinum
Gudrun Kost
Mel Lehan
Jeff Monds
Yolanda Elizabeth Perez
Work Less
Tom Walker

BC Liberals:
CAMPBELL, Hon. Gordon
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:10.55%
Area (km2):24
Pop Density:2171.67

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:

07 05 05 A. Vancouverite
While I'd predict a Liberal win, one can't be so obviously partisan as that fellow Jay when saying the reasons for the Liberal win or just simplistic. Actually the NDP is quite competitive on the West Side, the further north one goes -- it's the southern areas say south of King Edward where the Liberal numbers are quite huge. Lehan isn't unpopular, unpopular means people don't like him a characterization more fit for the Premier amongst the majority of the population. Lehan is actually popular enough, with those who know him...the problem for him is that not enough people know him. Not to mention that he's up against a Party leader (usually meaning they get a bit of a bonus because people in a riding usually like being represented by a Party leader, it’s quite prestigious). I'd predict that the strong Green candidate that will probably draw votes from normally Liberal and NDP supporters in fact the candidate himself said he’s working for both and I’d say it’s realistic considering his background. As we know 2001 is largely irrelevant when trying to determine a result, however I wouldn't be surprised to see the Greens hold their 20 odd percent from that time, and perhaps build on it. In any case the Premier will probably win his seat barring a complete collapse, but it won't be a blow out. And considering the boring and calm campaign the NDP had, I'd predict Lehan's numbers to be in the middle to upper echelon of the numbers I gave a while back, whereas Campbell should be in the lower echelon and Kettewell will probably be in the middle of those numbers.
05 05 05 Not Impossible
At first sight, a match up between Mel Lehan and Gordon Campbell may seem to be mismatch. But after Campbell's bug-eyed, sluggish, spacey performance on last night's debate, I'm bet even Lehan could take him. Mind you, good luck getting Gordon Campbell showing up to a debate.
30 04 05 Jay
I think it's ridiculous to call this a swing riding:
1996 win + 2001 win + West Side + High income riding + Lehan's unpopular name (he's not very well known) + Gordon Campbell's jollier and positive image + NDP and Green party split votes = easy Gordon Campbell win.
25 04 05 Bob C
Although I think Campbell will win this riding without too much trouble, and though I think there's still a race on for the Premiership, I'm getting a bit curious about Gordon's personal presentation.
I notice he's basically re-branded himself as a younger, more caring, happy man. I'm aslo a bit curious if he's had a face lift or some minor cosmetic surgery. I saw him at an announcement a few days ago, and he looks... different? Younger? I kinda hope the younger image works for him, because it might help him give a softer image to his government.
Maybe this softer presentation will help him on the campaign trail so he can keep both the titles of MLA and Premier.
24 04 05 R. Newman
Yes, it is stupid that in the half dozen ridings where the Greens are leading by a lot the NDP don't offer not to run. If they did not run, they could easily leverage the Greens not to run against THEM in at least three times that many ridings, and, guarantee that the NDP would win the election. The Greens would have a fair shot and maybe get the balance of power, which is no big deal if the parties are co-operating anyway to get Campbell out.
But since the NDP and Green Party are so stupid not to do this, why would anyone believe that they are smart enough to make a coalition work either?
Waiting until after the election to cut deals just keeps them out of office. It's obvious. As long as they are this stupid, the Liberals win.
Same story federally. If the NDP and Greens cut a deal not to run against each other in ridings the NDP might win - or even some Liberals who'd agree to some Green policy demands - but back the candidate who led in 2004 instead - they could guarantee Kyoto passed and get electoral reform.
But again, Jim Harris the Green Party of Canada leader is just as stupid as Carr the Green Party of BC leader, only interested in their own popular vote. And the NDP is not much better.
20 04 05 JAL
An analysis without prediction for West Point Grey:
1 - Mel Lehand (NDP) seems to be unknown. No civic or community past, no mention in newspapers, nothing in multiple Google searches.
2 - Campbell (Lib) very well known. Campaigned for Mayor with youngest son in chest halter, did door to door in Quilchena is a yellow rain slicker for first election, used to be regular contributer to newsgroups such as van.general or bc.politics, frequently seen browsing at UBC bookstore on Saturdays or pushing grocery cart in Safeway.
1 - When Campbell moved from Quilchena to Point Grey, the Vancouver Courier reported that the West Side Left Wing Association split with the East Side Left Wing Association and became a strong component in the Liberal West Point Grey Riding Association.
2 - There is no indication that the West Side Left Wing Association has transfered it's favor to Lehand.
Riding Pride:
1 - All ridings like to elect the Premier.
2 - Even if he wins, it is unlikely Lehand would become Premier.
18 04 05 lanto
I think this article in the Courier backs some of my earlier comments regarding the NDP's chances in this riding (http://www.vancourier.com/issues05/042205/news/042205nn9.html). Of course the NDP are the underdogs, but this has always been a close riding and is by no means asssured a Campbell victory.
18 04 05 someone
According to recent polls conducted by the NDP and the Liberals, as reported in Sean Holman's column in the Vancouver Sun on Wednesday, April 13th, the NDP are running ahead, or neck and neck, in 53 ridings across British Columbia. One of the ridings where the NDP are performing well is Vancouver Point Grey. One of the reasons why is that the NDP have a strong candidate in Mel Lehan, a longtime community activist who has lived in the community since 1951. From work on preserving the foreshore from Kits to UBC, daylighting Tatlow Park, working to create St. James Community Square, and myriad other community endeavours, Lehan is a known and respected figure in Kits / Point Grey. Could he unseat Gordon Campbell? Well, a little known Socred candidate unseated Premier Dave Barrett in the 1975 election, so a precedent has been set. If Campbell stumbles, as I believe he will, Lehan could pull off a victory in Point Grey.
29 03 05 Pundit
Everyone suggesting the Premier losing here needs to give their head a shake.
This is a Liberal seat - this is Liberal seat going way back. Garde Gradom and Pat McGeer were two of the Liberals elected from this riding from 1966 to 1972, they then joined the Bill Bennett Social Credit and we re-elected in 1975, 79, 83 and only lost one in 1986. Since 1966 the only true right winger this riding has elected was Kim Campbell in 1986
This is a classic Liberal seat and is not about to change when a Liberal is premier from this riding. And anyone that thinks Gordon Campbell is not a Liberal most believe that the federal Liberals are not Liberals either.
29 03 05 yalie
I think Harris is the most comparable to Campbell, in terms of ideology and the circumstances in which they were first elected. Remember that the Mulroney Tories were sort of transitional, a Red Tory-neoconservative mixture, but Mulroney generally campaigned as a Red Tory not as a Reaganite/Thatcherite. And Remember Quadra was represented by Liberal leader (and short-term PM) John Turner. Quebec is a different situation because separatism/federalism cuts into the left/right spectrum.
Let me define my terms a bit. By "Red Tories" I mean social liberalism and moderate fiscal conservatism (without the emphasis on tax cuts, support for some sort of a welfare state and social spending and generally a "social harmony" approach to politics (i.e. "we're all in it together", no bashing of "special interest groups" like trade unions, teachers, environmentalists, etc.) Neoconservatives in contrast emphasize tax cuts, big spending cuts and have more of an "us vs. them" approach with a tinge of right-wing populism. They may be social conservatives (like Harper) or "libertarians" (like Campbell and Harris). But by your logic any conservative who doesn't oppose abortion rights or same-sex marriage is a moderate. So this would mean that Ontario premiers Bill Davis and Mike Harris are of the same persuasion!
The closest Ontario riding counterpart in terms of demographics is St. Paul's (once called St. Andrew-St. Patrick provincially). St. Paul's, like Point Grey, is a well-off riding that has a lot of old money as well as a lot of academics and cultural leaders.
What happened in St. Paul's is telling. In 1995 they voted for Isabelle Bassett, a Tory. She got 40%, and won due to a near-even split between the NDP and Liberals. Note that Bassett was a rare Red Tory among the Common Sense Revolution ideologues. What happened in 1999? She was defeated. Though Bassett is a "Red Tory" voters didn't want anything to do with the Harris types. In 2003, the Tory candidate was crushed. And it had nothing to do with "social conservatism". It had to do with the fact that they rejected the divisive, anti-urban, neoconservative agenda.
I still think Campbell will win, but again only because he's the premier and the BC Liberals will put a ton of resources into the riding.
28 03 05 M. Lunn
Yalie - Actually I think Gordon Campbell is more comparable to people such as Brian Mulroney, Mike Harris and Jean Charest as opposed to Stephen Harper. This riding did go Progressive Conservatives in the 80s and the only reason it went liberals last election is most of the wealthy people on the west side of the riding like tax cuts and less government, but are uncomfortable with the social conservatism in the Conservative Party. Mike Harris racked up huge numbers in the 905 belt yet those mostly went liberal federally and Jean Charest despite being very unpopular in Quebec will still rack up huge numbers in West Montreal, which goes liberal federally. With the liberals polling at 51% in the Lower Mainland, Gordon Campbell will probably get slightly above that number just as he got slightly above the Lower Mainland average in 1996 therefore even if the Liberals fall behind the NDP, as long as they stay in the lead in the Lower Mainland, Campbell will be re-elected.
23 03 05 DL
hard to say what will happen here. People talk about party leaders rarely being defeated unless their party loses in a landslide. But party leaders also usually have seats that are way safer than Vancouver Point Grey is for the BC Liberals. Bear in mind that in 1986 when the NDP was being crushed province-wide by the VanderZalm juggernaut - Darlene Marzari won this seat for the NDP. It also went NDP by a wide margin in 1991. Campbell won it quite narrowly in 1996 when the Liberals beat the NDP in the popular vote 41-38%. If the BC Liberals win by a comfortable margin - Campbell will win, but if the popular vote is either tied or the NDP is ahead at all - Campbell could be in trouble.
Keep in mind that BC voters have never really warmed to campbell personally. He is a pretty icy and personally unappealing man and his drunk driving conviction and mugshots didn't do much to humanize him. Also Vancouver Point Grey is full of the types of academics and lawyers etc...who have suffered enormously from the kinds of cuts he has done.
24 03 05 yalie
I'm going for a narrow Campbell win here, but only because it's the premier's seat. If he represented another riding, I believe he would be defeated. There's lots of university professors in Point Grey and lots of champagne-social democrat types in Kits, which benefits the NDP. Then there's the really wealthy people, who are more pro-Campbell (but many are probably actually more ideologically comfortable with the federal Liberals than with Campbell). Campbell will win, but it won't be a cakewalk.
22 03 05 IGB
OK, Gordon Campbell may not be popular with some people, but he isn't going to lose his own seat. Premiers only get ousted from their own seats when either a) the government is extremely unpopular (i.e. 1991 and 2001, but not this time) or b) they win the party leadership\premiership BEFORE taking a seat in the Legislature and then lose by a narrow margin (i.e. Clyde Wells in Newfoundland or Don Getty in Alberta). Since neither of this is present this time, Campbell will win in Point Grey (albeit by a lesser margin than in 2001, I'd wager).
21 03 05 M. Lunn
Considering the most recent polls shows the liberals in the lead and the fact this is the premier's riding while the NDP have a no name candidate unlike in 1991 and 1996 where they had a high profile candidate, this should be a relatively safe liberal seat. I don't think the premier will do as well as Colin Hansen in terms of share of the popular vote, but he will still win, I am guess around 50% for the liberals and 40% for the NDP with the NDP support being mostly amongst UBC students and in Kitsilano while the high-income houses on the west side of the riding will go heavily BC Liberal. Even though there have been cases where the premier has lost his or her seat such as Ujjal Dosanjh and Rita Johnston and even cases such as Robert Bourassa in Quebec 1986 and Don Getty in Alberta 1989 who won the election but lost their seat, it won't happen this time. Robert Bourassa ran on the East side of Montreal which is generally separtists while Don Getty ran in Edmonton which is the only liberal part of Alberta, however the liberals tend to do better in this riding than they do on a province wide basis so that means they will win it.
16 03 05 Conrpop
Very rarely does an incumbent party leader lose his seat in such a close election. Also, Vancouver is one of the BC Liberal strongholds. I feel sorry for the NDP candidate in this riding.
13 03 05 A. Vancouverite
There where rumors that Julie Berg may have steped into the race (and that the others could've made way for her), she's a borderline star candidate, and advocated for police reform in an articulate way (meaning she had the profile to take on Campbell). She alleged (remember I said alleged -- re-iterating so this site doesn't get into legal trouble) that her brother was beaten to death by a Vancouver Police officer. Anywhom she would've had the profile to pull off a win combined with a strong NDP ground game, if the polls remained relativley even -- even if the NDP was behind in the lower mainland while being ahead in non-conservative, non-unionized Interior towns and the Island she would've still had a decent shot.
While Mel Lehan will put in an honest effort, he does not have the stature of Julie Berg therefore I think it's more realistic to predict a Campbell win now. Even though Campbell is personally unpopular, he'll probably be able to win his riding. Besides if he's in trouble against a good NDP ground game in the riding, they'll pull in extra resources from neighbouring ridings like the Liberal stronghold of Van-Quilchena, or the swing riding of Van-Fairview. That's where Mel Lehan's only realistic shot is, barring a Liberal meltdown, and the Liberals won't conced that ground that easily.
Prediction ranges (worst/best for each) Campbell 45-50, Lehan 35-40, Kettewell 18-23, Others 0-4.
12 03 05 Lanto
I think that this riding is not as much of a 'lock' as previous commenters have suggested. Not only has this been a historically close race but it should be taken into account that Campbell's popularity is probably at an all time low (as compared with previous elections). As well, I was a volunteer on the recall campaign in this riding last spring and, although the recall didn't succeed, there was substantial opposition to Campbell. Many of those opposed to the principle of recall told us that they would vote against Campbell during the election, many of whom had voted liberal previously. Also, don't underestimate the number of seniors, students, and university professors that live in this riding. The success of COPE in this riding during the municipal elections also suggests a shift to the left in terms of voting patterns.
08 03 05 Nick Boragina
LOL @ Green prediction.
Lets assume for a moment that this is not the preimiers seat, which it is. This election is a 2 horse race, and in any 2 horse races, 3rd parties drop like a rock in the polls. we all saw the ADQ lose 10 points over the course of the election in Quebec, the Greens would do the same if they could - they are only polling 10% to start with! Looking just purly at the numers we see why the Liberals will win. Add in that this is Gordo's riding, and you have this one locked up tight.
28 02 05 ALK
This is the Premier's seat. As someone from outside BC, I find it hard to conceive the notion that Gordan could lose his own seat. Despite his little DUI charge, he looks like he's doing a good job. Safe Liberal seat.
01 03 05 Scott G.
The NDP nominated Mel Lehan, a veteran organizer with the civic equivalent of the NDP, who's run for city council a number of times. He might lack the profile outside of the NDP that Jim Green had, but like Green, he has plenty of electoral experience and will put in a solid effort.
05 03 05 JW
Though the Liberals are now lower in the polls than they were back in 2001, and there is obviously less negative energy directed towards the ND's, I do believe that it would be very unlikely that Mr. Campbell would lose his seat. I would predict that unless the BC Liberal campaign completely self-destructs, the Premier will hold on to Point Grey. I don't know much about Mel Lehan (the ND Candidate), but if he runs a good campaign, then it could end up being a good race. *So, this could be a potential race*, but for now, my prediction is re-election for Mr. Capmpbell.
25 02 05 A. Vancouverite
Laurence is incorrect the NDP won this seat in a 1989 by-election and Darlene Marzari, who became Minister of Municipal Affairs in Harcourt's government, held it in the 1991 general election. The race should be relatively close. The NDP has a chance if they nominate a strong candidate, or at the very least they have a chance to finish within 3-7 points. That being said the I give an edge to Campbell, by default. One can't make a firm prediction until the NDP nominates a candidate.
26 02 05 rockindude
Green Party candidate Damian Kettlewell was on CKNW the other night and faired very with the miserable Michael Smyth, The NDP are a dead weight in Point Grey, it is one of the areas they should have just let the Greens and Liberals duke it out. Because of this lack of co-operation the Greens will run a candidate in Fairview also and take away votes from a decent NDP candidate there - the NDP never faired well at predicting the future....
24 02 05 M. Lunn
Although normally a swing riding, I think the premier will pull it off. The high end residences in the western part of the riding will go overwhelming liberal, probably over 70% and this will cancel out any of the NDP support in Kitsilano. Besides the only time the NDP has won this riding is when the election is called during the school year and they have the UBC vote, but that won't be the case on May 17th. Had the election been during the school year, I would put it in the too close to call.
25 02 05 Scott G.
While I agree Campbell is likely to win again, I think he'll lose at least a few votes from people who remember and are still angry at his reckless driving episode in Hawaii, and the way he minimized it as a "personal mistake" when it obviously showed very poor judgement on his part. This isn't just a partisan issue. He drank way over the BC or Hawaii legal limits, got in his car, and drove at high speed weaving over the centre line. I'm an NDP supporter, but I'd have trouble voting for an NDP candidate who'd done that two years ago while sitting as an elected official.
Also, this is not a "traditional Liberal" or even traditional Liberal / Socred riding. Darlene Marzari was elected for the NDP in 1986 (when Kim Campbell was also elected as a Socred in the dual-member-riding system they had then) and won the seat outright in 1991. Marzari was MLA until 1996, when Campbell beat New Democrat Jim Green by 1500 votes.
If the NDP had a strong candidate, like Jim Green in '96, I think Campbell could be vulnerable. The potential NDP candidates so far (Doug Cochran, Mel Lehan) seem to lack the necessary public profile for that.
25 02 05 derrick
actually, this riding was won by the NDP's Darlene Marzari in a 1989 by-election and the 1991 general election. Jim Green came within a few percentage points of winning the riding for the NDP in 1996 when Marzari retired. It's way too soon to guess what will happen this time, but this is not one of the more solid Lib seats, and without the Premier's star power, it would probably be best classified as a swing riding.
25 02 05 A. Vancouverite
Laurence is incorrect the NDP won this seat in a 1989 by-election and Darlene Marzari, who became Minister of Municipal Affairs in Harcourt's government, held it in the 1991 general election. The race should be relatively close. The NDP has a chance if they nominate a strong candidate, or at the very least they have a chance to finish within 3-7 points. That being said the I give an edge to Campbell, by default. One can't make a firm prediction until the NDP nominates a candidate.
23-Feb-05 Laurence Putnam
The Premier is safe. Despite a few close calls, they just aren't going to lose this seat. All those who keep reminding us of the University vote...just remember that by May 17th the bulk of students will be home for the summer. If memory serves, the only time this riding had an NDP MLA was when Socred (and UBC Professor) Ralph Loffmark crossed the floor in 1962 or '63 in protest over a point of principle...before quickly returning to the Social Credit benches.
24-Feb-05 P. Kelly
Gordon Campbell is not safe in his own seat. Van-Pt. Grey has voted NDP in the past, and by sizable margins. This area voted for Vancouvers civic COPE party and Mayor Larry Campbell. In 1996 when Campbell was leader of the official opposition, the NDP came within striking distance of winning this seat.
21-Feb-05 Non-Partisan
Even though there are a good amount of people who want to wring his neck for everything he's done. It would take a miracle to unseat Gordon Campbell and it just is not going to happen.
21-Feb-05 Peter
Vancouver-Point Grey is Traditionally been Liberal such as its Federal Part Vancouver-Quadra. This Riding is Safe for Gord on the Issue that hes pespected and liked in the riding. Gord grew up in Point Grey went to University Hill Secondary School same shool I graduated from he'll represnt it better than anyone else. This riding is Gord's, Hands Down!!!
22-Feb-05 Interested Voter
Why not start this site out with an easy submission. With only 84 days to the election, this is one of the 36 ridings where the NDP has yet to find a candidate.

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