Election Prediction Project

West Vancouver-Garibaldi
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
1:18 AM 11/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:05 PM 24/02/2005

Constituency Profile

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Lyle Douglas Fenton
BC Liberal
Joan McIntyre
Green Party
Dennis Stephen Perry
BC Conservative
Barbara Ann Reid

BC Liberals:
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:0.96%
Area (km2):10010
Pop Density:4.76

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
North Vancouver-Seymour
Port Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
Powell River-Sunshine Coast
West Vancouver-Capilano

10 05 05 Neal
With the liberals sailing to victory elsewhere, the weak liberal support will have a look around here. The sea-to-sky corridor may decide it is better served with a strong opposition member advocate like Dennis Perry, than a weak backbencher in the Campbell govt.
The NDP will not be factor. Lyle's past position as a councillor in squamish may not help him at all as Squamish council politics tends to be quite fractituous. As well, his admission at an all candidates meeting that he was not fully aware of NDP policy played heavily in the Squamish Chief. Definitely jsut a two horse race here with Greens winning by a nose.
01 05 05 berto05
Perry was definitely mounting a significant sign war, but during the all candidates debate in WV last thursday he twice denoucned the green's platform and budget which will probably hurt him up in Whistler. (considering he is the deputy leader) He is definitely a one issue candidate and should have probably run as an independent. He probably just ran for MLA to up his profile for the Nov elections.
24 04 05 M. Lunn
Dennis Perry is certainly a strong candidate, but in a typical election, an average candidate can only swing the vote by about 5% and maybe up to 20% for a star candidate. Even though I think the Greens might win several polls in Bowen Island, Britannia Beach, Squamish, Whistler and maybe even Pemberton, West Vancouver will go overwhelmingly liberal meaning a liberal win. The interesting part will be which party comes in second place since I think it is quite possible the Greens will finish ahead of the NDP. In fact this riding will likely go against the provincial trend since if it appears to be a close race, then people will vote liberal to make sure the liberals win while if it is clear the liberals will win then some may park their votes with the Greens. The liberals will get at least 50% and maybe even over 60% since support for the liberals in West Vancouver is around 70% and 2/3 of the population of live there meaning regardless of how well they do elsewhere, they will still win big. As for the Eagle Ridge Bluffs; that is likely only an issue in the Horseshoe Bay area as opposed to further east where the majority of the population lives and besides issues like tax cuts and a strong economy will probably play a bigger factor. Never mind that people under our current system tend to vote only for parties they think have a chance at winning the election which is either the liberals or NDP. If the STV vote passes, then Dennis Perry might have a got shot in winning in 2009.
23 04 05 Laurence Putnam
McIntyre's got it by default, NDP will come a disasterous third, Green's Perry could get up to 30% of the vote and one of the top three Green results in the province. I notice he even has a veteran federal Tory organizer on board. (Hi, Marion! :)
18 04 05 bp
As the month wears on, this riding is going to be too close to call. The liberal candidate - Joan McIntyre - has the edge because West Van traditionally votes either liberal or conservative and West Vancouver delivers the largest number of votes in the riding. But the Green candidate - Dennis Perry - is "green" with a conservative background and this will cause voters all kinds of "angst". The riding is demographically one of the most diverse in the province and so there are a lot of voters in the riding who do not match the West Vancouver profile. Also, the tunnel issue will definitely affect the West Vancouver District vote because most of West Van supports the tunnel and that support increases the deeper you get into the West Van-Garibaldi riding.
18 04 05 squish
Those who are predicting a Liberal landslide in Whistler haven't been there in a while, I think. The Greens were a strong second in the Whistler poll both provincially in 2001 and federally last year -- beating the Conservatives' John Reynolds! This is a young community and sustainability is the buzzword. Without former Whistler mayor Ted Nebbeling to vote for, the Greens have a shot at winning the Whistler poll, I think, with the Liberals behind and the NDP invisible.
The NDP will do better in Squamish than they did last time thanks to the protest vote, but the Greens will still do all right among those who are disgusted with the Liberals but can't stomach voting NDP. The NDP candidate, Lyle Fenton, is local, which may give him enough of an edge to win the Squamish poll, but the Greens will be close. The Liberals are third here.
None of this matters, of course, because West Van rules the riding and the Liberals will almost certainly hold off on the controversial Eagleridge Bluffs decision -- the one thing that would give Perry enough of a boost in West Van to make a serious challenge -- until, oh, say, May 18th. It's the Liberals with about a 45-50% vote share, with the Greens around 25-30 and the NDP 20-25.
09 04 05 M. Lunn
With the electorate being highly polarized, the Greens will not win any seats and they will likely finish third in this riding. The Green Party's strong showing in 2001 was because many dippers felt the NDP deserved to lose the election, but couldn't bring themselves around to voting liberal. They will vote NDP. It will be a close in Bowen Island, Squamish, Britannia Beach, and Pemberton, while Whistler will go liberal and the liberals will get over 70% in the West Vancouver portion therefore guaranteeing a liberal win even if they got 0 votes in the rest of the riding.
30 03 05 rockindude
The Greens have nominated Dennis Perry, president of Save the Bluffs Coalition and an investment banker for the last 35 years, not your stereotypical Green! With Perry's organisational skills and fundraising capabilities look for the Greens to seriously challenge the no-name Liberal candidate here, especially if the contract for cutting through the bluffs get sign mid-April as proposed.
02 04 05 Adam T
The Green Party has a very strong and high profile candidate in "Tory/Green" businessman Dennis Perry.
In the 2001 election, disgruntled New Democrats who couldn't stomach voting Liberal supported the Green Party, this time, the Greens will get support from disgruntled Liberals who couldn't even begin to consider supporting the "socialists". For all of Adrian Carr's many political failures, she has been shrewd repositioning her party over the last 4 years as a centrist party with environmental concerns.
An upper class riding like this is exactly where she is positioning for support. That said, the Liberals have far too far to fall from 2001 to lose this riding. But, this will could very well be the best Green Party riding in the province.
Prediction: Liberal 50% Green 30% NDP 17.5% Other 2.5%
28 03 05 M. Lunn
Whoever said the Green Party would win this is nuts. The Green Party won't win any seats and even if they did this would not be in their top 10 most winnable. As an earlier poster said, even though the NDP will be strong in Bowen Island, Britannia Beach, Squamish, and Pemberton, the liberals will rack up huge numbers in West Vancouver and have a strong showing in Whistler thereby guaranteeing a big liberal win. I am guessing the liberals 60%, NDP 25%, Greens 10%.
25 03 05 A. Vancouverite
The Liberals will win this seat. The intresting race will be for second place. While the riding would be competitive and a realistic target for the NDP if the West Vancouver portion was removed, due to the presence of communities such as Squamish, Britannia Beach, Pemberton, D'Arcy and a few others, that is not the case. The Liberals will pile up a massive majority in the West Van portion. If the Greens are properly organized and have a decent provincial campaign, not to mention local candidate, they might be able to get around 20 to 25% of the vote and possibly edge out the NDP. However I wouldn't bet on it.
The results will be something like this: Lib 55-60, NDP 20-30, Green 15-25, DRBC 0-10 and others around 1-2%.
10 03 05 rockindude
Look for a strong protest vote for the Greens who have been the most supportive over the expansion of the freeway across Eagle Ridge Bluffs [despite recent attempts by the NDP to take the issue]. After all it was the NDP who brought the Olympics and its issues to the area. Look for a widening of the gap between Greens and NDP, even to the point of challenging the Liberals.
23-Feb-05 M. Lunn
Like the other North Shore ridings, this should be an easy liberal win. Although they probably will not win with as big a margin as in West Vancouver-Capilano, but they should still win with a large margin, certainly over 50% and likely over 60%.

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