2:15 AM 19/01/2006

Prediction Changed
11:05 PM 22/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Eugene Conway
Shannon Hillier
Fabian Manning
Bill Morrow

Hon. R. John Efford

2004 Result:
R. John Efford
Rick Dalton
Michael Kehoe
Don C. Ferguson

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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18 01 06 Russ on the Rock
The "too close to call" designation for this riding (which was formerly held by Liberal cabinet minister John Efford) is badly out of date. It has been apparent for several weeks now that Fabian Manning (popular long-time MHA) is headed for a fairly easy win for the Conservatives. On top of Manning's personal appeal, the Liberal candidate, Bill Morrow, is hampered by low name recognition. The national campaign momentum is just gravy on this one. Take it to the bank -- Avalon will be a Tory gain on Monday.
16 01 06 DJP
With NTV's poll showing Fabian Manning with a small lead, how can not riding *not* be classified "Too Close to Call"?
15 01 06 JFB
Voici ce que disait un sondage de NTV le 11 janvier dernier: «In Avalon, the poll gives a slight edge to Conservative Fabian Manning at 46.8%, but right behind him is Liberal Bill Morrow at 44.2%, well within the margin of error and therefore a statistical dead heat. New Democrat Eugene Conway has 7.7% support and Shannon Hillier of the Greens has 1.3%.» Depuis, les Conservateurs ont diminué l'écart avec les Libéraux, comme en fait foi un sondage de la firme Omnifacts Bristol indique que 45 % des électeurs qui ont fait leur choix optent pour les Libéraux contre 37 % pour les Conservateurs, soit un écart de huit points. Il s'agit là d'une hausse de 6 points des Conservateurs et d'une baisse de 5 points des Libéraux. Si la tendance se maintient, le 23 janvier, Avalon passera dans le camp conservateur par une faible majorité.
15 01 06 Mike White
It really is time to move this one into the Tory column. At the start of the campaign I said that Manning had an edge because of the more effective Tory campaign to that point. With just over a week to go, it is clear that the wheels have come of the Liberal bus and Harper is in cruise control. The NTV poll this week showing an advantage for Manning supports the move. Yes, the numbers are within the margin of error. However, the desire to have a government MP is powerful in rural Newfoundland, and the traditional Tory support along the Cape Shore and Southern Shore will carry the day.
11 01 06 Dave-o
NTV poll shows a slight lead in Avalon for the Conservatives 46.8 to 44.2, but I would still give the edge to Morrow for now.
02 01 06 love, sydney
Joining the wave of change, Avalon voters have a familiar face in Manning to hang their hopes on. That he's got a sturdy reputation around the riding is one thing, but that his opponent is not an incumbent also frees up many of the disgruntled Grits to give the Tories a spin. The drums are pointing to a Tory minority so a good number of people are wanting to be on the side of change.
25 12 05 Babs
The Avalon Riding will no doubt be interesting to watch, however Mr. Fifteen Minutes of Fame Manning will have a very tough time trying to hide his dismal record as an MHA. In all his years in provincial politics he has proven to be ineffectual in representing his constituents and really has no shining record to put forth. I am certain that as the election wears on this will become a very well known fact and the voters of the riding will wise up to the reality that getting kicked in the teeth once for saying the wrong thing to your boss does not make you a super hero. I seriously doubt that Mr. Fifteen Minutes' one time grand stand will be enough to carry the day. He will have to prove that he has much more substance than that and that will be pretty much impossible given his long track record of doing nothing. This riding is primed and ready for new blood that carries no political baggage.
24 12 05 JP
I am amazed that this riding is not in the TCTC column. Just as the other postings suggest, the Tories have a very recognizable face, much of the district is currently PC provincially, and the Liberals are not as popular as they were back in '04. I believe this riding will likely be a Conservative win in a very close race.
22 12 05 td
I think that Fabian Manning has an excellent shot of winning this riding, people in the riding will remember that he spoke up for them this past spring-going beyond party lines- during the crab dispute here in Newfoundland, that should be enough to get him in.
I expect the NDP to finish 2nd here ahead of the Liberals.
18 12 05 Brendan Barker
Fabian Manning is running for the CPC, whom is a high profile candidate than expected. Now that Efford is out of the picture, the popular Manning should be able to take this one. Manning stood up for crab fishermen and that seems to sit well with the constituents here.
14 02 05 Pink Tory
Excellent news for the Conservatives. They needed a good local candidate to make a difference. Fabian Manning is the one candidate who can really make a difference in a local race. While local candidates are usually only good (or bad) for an extra 2-3%, this is an exception.
Manning has a reputation as a maverick who stands up for his constituents above all else. Expect a similar Cadman phenomenon here.
While I think Manning will win, probably with 39-42% of the vote, there is absolutely no reason this riding should be in the Liberal "Win" column. It is most definitely too close to call at this point in time. When we get closer to the end of the campaign, we will have a better understanding of whether he will win... but at this point, Manning looks like he'll beat the Liberals.
13 12 05 Nick Boragina
since I made my prediction last, some things have changed. Efford has decided not to run, in his place, is a Libreal who, from what I've seen, is ineffectual. CBC's show Politics had him, and Fabien Manning (his tory opponent) debating, and the grit candidate was only successful at shooting himself in the foot. I hate to sound shallow, but he does not have the politicians look either, he is portly, is face appears sleepy, and he has bad teeth. Manning on the other hand came across as intelligent, and even charismatic. He was an excellent debater, and came across as being the better person.
All that being said, the gap I mentioned last time is still here, and is still huge. The tories lost less in Newfoundland from the last election, then they did in any other atlantic province.
While I'm inclined to still lean Liberal, the candidate strength is 100% tory. I'm moving this from "Grit" to "TCTC" in my books.
12 12 05 MC
I can't make a call on how this will go. I think it's likely to remain Liberal, but for now it should be TCTC. Fabian Manning is a very popular candidate, but will that be enough. This is not a very conservative area, so it comes down to how many Liberal supporters switch to support a star candidate. I'm not sure it will be enough.
Also, making sure not to nominate Art Reid, who has some nasty baggage, was a great move for the Liberals.
10 12 05 george
Throw out the old numbers---Fabian Manning is a populist who will win this riding with room to spare. He may be a loose cannon but he is liked for just that reason--he stands up for what he believes in--and --rightly or wrongly --stands up for what he believes is best for his riding.
08 12 05 Mike White
If the stars align correctly for the Conservatives national campaign this could be their one gain in Atlantic Canada. Having worked for former Liberal Members for both the old Bonavista-Trinity-Conception and old St. John's West, there is a delicate balance in the riding. BTC areas are generally Liberal and the St. John's West generally conservative. Manning has been a durable politician in Placentia-St. Mary's and has earned a bit of a following. However, to win he'll still need either a good campaing from Stephen Harper or a bad one from Paul Martin. Just over a week into the campaign, things are looking blue in Avalon.
07 12 05 DJP
With John Efford out of the running and a strong, well-known Conservative candidate, the Tories have an excellent shot at grabbing this one. Efford's personal popularity transcended party lines, but the Southern Shore and St. Mary's Bay areas - Newfoundland's Irish heartland - are usually solidly Conservative.
06 12 05 M. Lunn
I expect it to be a closer race, but the margin of victory last time around is simply too much to overcome. The Conservatives will do well in the parts close to St. John's that were previously part of the two St. John's ridings, but like the rest of Rural Newfoundland, the rest of the riding is very strong Liberal territory. You would need the Conservatives to have a showing similar to Danny Williams in 2003 to win this, which certainly isn't going to happen.
06 12 05 L.O.
Fabian Manning has now thrown his hat in to be the Conservative Candidate for Avalon. He announced on Sunday, December 4.
Fabian Manning is a higher profile candidate than either Bill Morrow, Bern Hickey, or Art "Get back in the kitchen Sheila" Reid. Manning is a maverick. He stood up for the thousands of crab fishermen who opposed the provincial government's plan to regulate the industry. It got him removed from the PC caucus. That gives him cross party appeal.
As it stands, he'll have the support of the provincial PC MHAs in the Avalon riding. Newfoundland and Labrador's PC Finance Minister has already made that statement: "All the members provincially will be out helping on the ground and working with him to get elected federally. I mean, it's the Conservative party," said Sullivan.[from CBC Dec 5 report linked above].
A local CBC reported on Don Newman's tight race roundup a few days ago also stated that donations for Manning are building up. The war chest won't be a problem.
The riding of Avalon, I think, is a beast that the usual suspects in NL politics are still trying to figure out. John Efford's last election was unqiue to things surrounding John Efford . . . just as had he stuck around, the humbling he would have received this time would have been about some of his mis-steps and arrogant statements during the Atlantic Accord Campaign -- statements that probably upset even many provincial Liberals and some of his NL caucus colleagues. The riding is blue in the Harbour main and all along its southernmost shores from Placentia around the cape and southern shore all the way to Bay Bulls. The riding is very red in the western Bellevue area . The area that may tell the tale extends down around Harbour Grace and vicinity. Well, that, and the candidates and campaign and voters!
This will be the riding to watch in NL. If Tories put any work in at all on their star candidate, they'll win it.
05 12 05 M T
Well, since Fabian Manning is likely to be the candidate now, and the Liberals don't have one yet... perhaps the prediction on this riding should be reconsidered now? Manning's candidacy did make the national news, after all; he must have some popularity, and the general opinion below seems to be that if Manning ran, it would be a whole new race here.
18 11 05 M. Lunn
It looks like John Efford won't be running again so that will likely mean both the Conservatives and NDP should get a greater share of the popular vote as up until recently, John Efford was extremely popular in Newfoundland & Labrador (although not as much today). However a 30 point gap is way too much to overcome, so the Liberals should easily cruise to victory here.
16 05 05 Ashley Morton
This riding is 100% impossible to call until the two parties declare their candidates. Liberals: John Efford has been lambasted like I've never seen a politician be lambasted - in the press, on the call-in shows, everywhere. Every second editorial cartoon mocks him, displaying him as incompetent, disloyal and mentally incapable. He also has significant health issues. Thus, he may not run. Tories: If Fabian Manning makes the jump over from provincial politics, he will bring all the impression of integrity that Efford is seen to NOT have. At the same time, he has said repeatedly that he doesn't want to, so we may have a battle of first-timers. If it's Liberal X vs. Tory Y, then it's probably going Liberal due to history, but if *either* Efford or Manning run, it'll go Tory, because Efford can drag the Grits down and Manning can pull the Tories up.
16 05 05 Xavier
(a) it's quite unlikely Efford will run in the next election, given recent media reports, and (b) given his performance over the Atlantic Accord negotiations, he'd have an uphill struggle defending his timid record in Ottawa even if he did. The Tories didn't have a strong candidate last time around, but there's no shortage of them this time. The Liberals are toast in this riding. Write it down.
15 05 05 Christopher MacCulloch
This one will largely depend on whether or not Efford runs again as he is rumoured to be pondering retirement for health reasons. Consider as well the rumours of Fabian Manning running or possible even Loyola Hearn whom lives in this riding, and we may yet have a contest. However in the meanwhile, with Efford running, it will likely stay Lib
07 05 05 Nick Boragina
While this would seen like prime tory real estate, I just cant see the gap closing on efford. His win last time was huge, getting almost twise as many votes as the Conservative.
Newfoundland was odd, in that the CPC did better here then in any other atlantic province. While it might sound strange, the reason was the lack of success of the Alliance here. since the Alliance was so weak, almost all of the backroom orginizers, and candidates, are former Progressive Conservatives. It's almost like the PC party just dropped the P. While this was good for them in 2004, its not so good for future prospects, as shaking off the alliance tag will mean less here. I just cant see it happening this time around. Perhaps in the future, but not now.
06 05 05 Sydney
It currently looks like Fabian Manning, a Newfoundland and Labrador Tory MHA, is considering running in this riding. His popularity has soared in recent weeks as a result of supporting the crab fishermen that are currently in dispute with the PC government over policy changes. The government has recently kicked Manning from their caucus for taking the opposite side in the crab conflict. He now sits as an independent PC in the Newfoundland and Labrador legislature and might be eager to enter federal politics. If he chooses to run against Efford, Manning will win. Manning has a record for representing his riding before his party while Efford has a reputation for representing his party instead of the people who elected him. If Manning runs you can be sure to paint Avalon Tory Blue.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
John Efford may have come under fire for his reluctance to bring in the Atlantic Accord faster, but the liberals won this by a large enough margin that John Efford will be re-elected. Besides John Crosbie will not be running for the Tories for health reasons so this eliminates any possibility of a Tory upset.
02 05 05 JC
Efford will win, despite his flopping on the Same Sex-Marriage issue, he did consult with his constituents on this before getting the green light, he'll win easily.

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