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12:14 AM 03/05/2005
Projet D'Élection Prévision

2006 - élection générale (Canada)

Profil de circonscription

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Peter Deslauriers
Rachel Hoffman
Marlene Jennings
Bloc Québécois
Alexandre Lambert
Allen F. Mackenzie
Pierre-Albert Sévigny
Earl Wertheimer

Hon. Marlene Jennings

2004 Résultats:
Marlene Jennings
Jean-Philippe Chartré
William R. McCullock
Maria Pia Chávez
Jessica Gal
Jay Dell
Earl Wertheimer
Rachel Hoffman

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2004 Projet D'Élection Prévision

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18 01 06 01/02/2003
Marlene Jennings is a weak MP who got elected in past elections solely because of her party affiliation. With the increase in Conservative support in the province and the existence of some support base for that party in this riding, not to mention an actual NDP campaign which will steal Liberal votes, the race is way much closer this time and I personally expect the riding to cause a surprise and go Conservative.
17 01 06 JR
Sorry the NDP will not pull off second place. In the last election the Bloc got 9700 to the NDP's 3500. The Bloc is working every bit as hard as the NDP and both may increase their numbers but neither will see significant gain.
13 01 06 expat
There is no way this riding goes anything but Liberal, even though Jennings isn't the strongest or most personally popular MP. The real interesting race here is for 2nd place - the NPD is putting up a strong campaign - maybe they're trying to lay the groundwork for future races, because this is the kind of urban progressive riding that is fertile territory if they ever become a viable Quebec option. I'm betting that they'll peel off enough Liberal and Bloc votes to take second -- but a very distant second, back there with the Conservatives and the Bloc.
23 12 05 Bear without Ape
Marlene is not the one who is popular in this riding, the Liberals are the ones who are popular. The ideas mentioned are those of the party (for the most part) and rightly so, fit the ideals of NDG-Lachine. People do not speak of her with the same admiration as was spoken for Warren Allman when he was the MP. Having said all that, for the first time in as long as I can remember the other parties are activly campaigning in this riding. Surprisingly the NDP are investing money here when conventional wisdom says that only the CPC has a remote chance of winning here. Look for a decisive Liberal victory (and it is people voting for the Liberals, not voting for Marlene, the likely future cabinet minister) and a very interesting race for second.
09 12 05 Mr. Younger
Seeing as Warren Allman is now a city councillor, and that he comes to Liberal Policy meetings frequently....you guys are really out to lunch on this one (with all due respect).
And that Marlene's not popular in the riding? I disagree. She's supported many ideals dear to the riding, same sex marriage, Kyoto, women's and minority rights...and she's a rising star, serving as Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister. She works hard in Ottawa, and in the riding. What's not to like?
On the contrary, I think the next logical step is a Cabinet post.
07 12 05 SHS
This is my current home riding and it's been a Liberal seat since 1962. No chance of that changing anytime soon. This riding is very ethnically diverse and tends to split between NDG and Lachine in voting patterns, but it's solidly federalist and that's the main issue in a Quebec election. Even disgruntled Liberals don't feel like they have very far to go because there aren't many "soft nationalists" in the riding. The NDP doesn't have any inroads in Quebec, and the riding will never go Conservative; it's not affluent enough or socially conservative enough. Marlene Jennings is a prominent MP with a fair amount of local respect that she's earned in the past several years, and her outspoken stance in favour of same-sex marriage can only help her in this socially liberal riding. I predict another landslide for the Liberals here.
07 12 05
Victoire de Marlene Jennigns avec une majorité qui sera aussi grande que lors de la dernière élection. Ce comté à toujours voter majoritairement en faveur des Libéraux avec des majorités de 15 000 voix et plus. Donc Victoire assurée.
02 12 05 Bear and Ape
We want to contradict any rhetoric about any possible conservative gains in this riding (now or in the forseable future). We know it well (Bear's home riding) and so far as we can tell (at least in our parent's lifetime, let alone OWR lifetime) it has never gone conservative. Even in 1997, when the PC were a factor in Quebec, this went SOLIDLY liberal. NDG-Lachine has too large of an Italian community (read: Liberal voters) and the socio-economics are pure middle of the road (read: too poor for the CPC and too rich for the NDP)to vote any other way. Even in the Mulroney tidal wave of '84 this was a liberal hold. Alot can change but don't hold your breath waiting.
21 11 05 Ex-liberal
Marlene Jennings is not popular in her riding, but she is Liberal and as long as the Liberals will remain the one federalist alternative in Quebec, she will keep the riding in the Liberal column, or rather the Liberals will keep the seat even though Jennings is their candidate. Things could get interesting if the Conservatives were to pick up federalist support elsewhere, as there could be a massive movement to that party in that event, but this doesn't seem very probable at this point.
17 05 05 Bear and Ape
Despite Marlene being parachuted here in '97 she still won handidly every election. To correct Neal, Warren Allmand did not get the boot, he choose to resign and work in Human Rights (if we recall correctly), but he was not kicked out. IF he was kicked out, we promise you this would have gone Allmand as an independent in 97 and Jennings would have never made it on the national scene (at least not in NDG-Lachine). To agree with Nick, the Liberals could run a red mailbox and win (Bear feels that the mailbox might make a better MP than Marlene, but he has some issues with her...).
09 05 05 Neal
There's only one way for the Liberals to lose this one: That would be an insurgency by former MP Warren Allmand, who got the boot for opposing martin's '95 Budget for a)its not being left wing enough and b)not cancelling the GST.
Allmand could take this riding as an independent.
08 05 05 Nick Boragina
This is one of only 8 ridings in the province that will go Liberal. Jennings has always been an interesting charichter, but she will win again, however unfortunate that may or may not be. This is one of those ridings where the Liberals could run a mailbox, so the popular myth goes, and it would win so long as it were red.
03 05 05 RWA
Probably the third safest Liberal seay in Quebec. No matter how bad it gets, they will hold on here.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
This is one of the few safe liberal seats left in Quebec since the only area they are still strong is the West side of Montreal. With even fewer Quebec MPs, I wouldn't be surprised if Marlene Jennings gets a cabinet post should the liberals win since the liberals will want to do everything to make the Bloc less attractive to Quebecers.
27 04 05 JC
This is a very very very safe liberal seat, Even in Quebec if the Bloc Sweep it they won't win.

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