Update/Mise à jour:
3:05 AM 03/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
11:29 PM 05/05/2005
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Kingston and the Islands
Kingston et les Îles

Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale



Constituency Profile
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Candidates/candidats:
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Conservative/conservateur
Lou Grimshaw
NDP/NPD
Rob Hutchison
Libearl/libéral
Peter Milliken
Canadian Action
Don Rogers
Independent
Karl Eric Walker
Green/Vert
Eric Walton

Incumbent/Député:
Hon. Peter Milliken

2004 Result/Résultats:
Peter Milliken
28544
Blair MacLean
12582
Rob Hutchison
8964
Janina Fisher Balfour
3339
Terry Marshall
481
IND
Rosie The Clown Elston
237
Don Rogers
179
IND
Karl Eric Walker
100

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page




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02 01 06 docdee
I'll agree that Speaker Millikan will hold this seat, but the more interesting question is- What is the likleyhood that he will still be Speaker. Since I'm predicting it will be a CP government, and no desire on the CP part to play nice with any Liberals, Peter could find himself back on a much reduced Liberal backbench.. can anyone say by-election ?
15 12 05 R
Fortunately for the Tories but sadly for Craig, right-wing nutbar Connie Wilkins was creamed in the Conservative nomination meeting thanks, in part, to the embarrassment caused her by the fringe right-wing "Free Dominion" discussion board she owns and moderates. The Tory candidate is a non-entity. Milliken has become an institution in Kingston for reasons to unfathomable to comprehend so he won't have a problem being re-elected.
05 12 05 Adam
Peter blew his opponent out of the water last election when every liberal in the surrounding area was put out to pasture. In fact, his vote INCREASED by 6 thousand or so, because the riding's old red tories would rather die than vote for Stephen Harper.
A great MP, a great Speaker, loved by his community. He'll cakewalk it again this time.
09 11 05 Bear and Ape
Comment to the last poster, and we realise that this was written a long time ago, but the Conservatives NEVER had a shot here. Kingston is something of an anomaly in eastern Ontario, in that it is very Liberal (university town mentality). Much like Peterbrough, but without the chunks of rural that make Peterborough more competitive for the CPC. Don't think the CPC will be wasting any time here where they are going to have to fight to keep ridings like Stormont-Dundas and try to make headway in near-misses from 2004 (like Northumberland).
15 05 05
The Conservatives may have had a chance but with their inability to even run a simple nomination meeting there is no chance to organize a winning campaign. Milliken in another landslide
14 05 05 MF
With its highly-educated population/university presence, "red" Kingston is a liberal island in the conservative sea of Eastern Ontario. The Harper-led Conservatives will not win over many of Kingston's former Red Tories. Expect the NDP to place 2nd in the old city of Kingston, the Tories outside of old Kingston.
Prediction: 41% LIB, 27% CON, 25% NDP, 7% others
13 05 05 Jay E.
Queen's students vote NDP and Green? That's a VERY BIG myth. Queen's University politics are dominated by the Liberals and the Conservatives. Past student governments have had close ties to those two parties. There was not, from 2000 to 2004, any kind of NDP presence on campus. Besides, the students at Queen's are historically the most conservative in Canada. Having said all that, it's summer, so all the students will have returned home (and will undoubtedly be voting Conservative there). Besides, students are a large voting bloc, but they have shown little real influence on Kingston politics. The town is solidly Liberal, and the township is Conservative, but the town tends to dominate.
12 05 05 A.S.
Yes, this "Craig" character (Chandler?) is, in his predictions, fond of depicting Ontario as being primed for some massive Dubyah's Red AmeriKKKa motivated-voting-bloc social-conservative steamroller, but...Kingston?!? How cuckoo-for-Cocoa-Puffs can you get?!? Look, maybe it's worked to some extent in the surrounding Eastern Ontario ridings, but if there's anyplace where a "Cheryl Gallant-style social conservative" *won't* play, and will indeed succeed (even accounting for whatever "mobilized base" can be mustered up) in scaring away more voters that'd ordinarily be drawn to the anti-Adscam Tories, it's Kingston. And as if to prove how resoundingly those disenfranchised Red Tories defaulted into Martin Liberals (although Milliken's bulletproof Speakerdom helped at the ballot box), K&TI became, out of the blue, Ontario's only non-GTA seat where the Liberals cracked 50% in '04! Yes, even ahead of erstwhile "safest Liberal seats" such as Ottawa-Vanier and Glengarry-Prescott-Russell. So, the tableau's changed. Kingston's now "Liberal" to the extent that it'll sooner default to the NDP than to the "Gallant Tories". In fact, it's so Liberal and so liberal, were this the UK, K&TI would be the perfect ex-Blairite Labour seat to be stolen by the anti-war Liberal Democrats a la Cambridge or Cardiff Central. As for this mobilized so-con base, that'd go over like a citizen's army ready to inject the local male homosexualist (sic) population with "I Love Boobies!" serum (apologies to the Simpsons). Not that Milliken's absolutely bulletproof; but under the circumstances, if you want to justify a Tory victory in Kingston, you really need to do so on less scary/asinine grounds...
08 05 05 Aric H
I grew up in Kingston in the 1980's and it was Conservative for a while then - but Progressive Conservative. It has been Liberal for a while now because it does not really support the new more right-wing Conservative party. The incumbent MP Peter Miliken is popular and won by a lot last year and still has a high-profile as Speaker and so all these reasons put together make it unlikely the Conservatives would take it unless they overtake the Liberals in the Ontario numbers by quite a lot.
06 05 05 Adam Gaudry
I would just like to dispel the myth that Queen's University votes for the NDP and the Green, while students are particularly left leaning, the vast majority of students at Queen's vote for the Liberal Party. I am a politics student here and the vibe does not make me believe that anything will change. I cannot see the student vote threatening Miliken, especially since school is over. Those that remain will only augment the over whelming Liberal support in Kingston.
05 05 05 AD
While the Kingston riding has some Conservative roots, they are almost completely of the "Red Tory" persuasion. It is unlikely that this riding will ever support the party of Stephen Harper.
Miliken is also well respected as speaker and although many believe that he does little in the riding, the respect given him should take to another easy win.
03 05 05 TC
I am not a fan of the Liberals, but Peter Milikin is the speaker, and I honestly believe he has done a good job in being neutral and fair speaker. Add in the fact that speakers are usually the kings of using Parliamentary Privilege to benefit their home ridings, I don't think anyone else stands a chance
02 05 05 JC
Milliken won't lose, he's too popular not to, as the speaker of the house it is extremely rare to lose and he won't.
02 05 05 Craig
This may be a strange prediction, but I think the Speaker will be unseated by Connie Wilkins for several reasons:
1) This riding is surrounded by safe Conservative seats, meaning that extra resources in eastern Ontario will be freed up and sent here.
2) The presence of Queen's University and government facilities will increase the NDP and Green Party support, mostly at Liberal expense. That will decrease the votes required to win.
3) As Speaker, Peter Milliken cannot represent his constituents and that will be exposed in the debates and become an issue.
4) Eastern Ontario as a whole is becoming more conservative, and as a Cheryl Gallant-type social conservative, Wilkins will be able to mobilize the base and develop a large voting bloc.
The end result will be a clean slate of Tory blue in eastern Ontario outside central Ottawa. Predicted results: CPC 36%, LIB 31%, NDP 23%, GRN 8%, others 2%.
01 05 05 Miles Lunn
Speaker of the House Peter Miliken should have no trouble being re-elected since Kingston is a red tory town and they generally don't tend to vote for more right wing conservative parties be they Brian Mulroney in 1988, Mike Harris in the 90s or Stephen Harper. Flora Macdonald won under red tory leaders of Robert Stanfield, Joe Clark, and in the 1984 sweep. Interestingly enough Peter Miliken and Mauril Belanger may be the only liberal MPs left from Eastern Ontario since Eastern Ontario is where the Conservatives were the strongest. The two neighbouring ridings will likely remain in Conservative hands.



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