Update/Mise à jour:
10:43 AM 16/01/2006

Prediction Changed
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5:54 PM 12/01/2006
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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Colin Carrie
David Gershuny
Adam Jobse
Louise Parkes
Sid Ryan

Colin Carrie

2004 Result/Résultats:
Colin Carrie
Sid Ryan
Louise V. Parkes
Liisa Whalley
Tim Sullivan

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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14 01 06 Josh G.
I can't believe Oshawa has been called for the Conservatives, not least because in 2004 only a few hundred votes separated the Conservatives and the NDP. I suspect that, in a riding like this, any declines in the Liberal share will go to the NDP somewhat more than the Conservatives, which should put Sid Ryan over the top. Still, it will be very close once again.
13 01 06 AR
I don't know what "Student Slacker" has been imbibing but Sid Ryan lost by 10,000 votes in Scarborough in 1999 and only lost by fewer than 500 votes in Oshawa in 2003. How, pray tell, does SS conclude that Scarborough was his best result?
13 01 06 BB
The worst case scenario for Colin Carrie was for the local Liberal to crash n burn. Combine that with the fact 65% of Oshawa voters traditionally vote against the Tories. Add in auto workers concerned about job loss and you have the ingrediants for Liberals to flock to the NDP. Polling has shown voters who leave the Liberals are more likely by a margin of 2to 1 to go to the NDP.
This race is shaping up perfectly for Ryan he is running a smart and strategic campaign. Most of Carrie and Parkes signs are on public property while Ryan's are on voters property. Carrie is feeling the pressure he was angry and unfocused at the Rogers Cable tv debate the other night. A sure sign a candidate is losing the battle. Ryan was having fun ..cool and relaxed.
12 01 05 Rhonda Sewell
This battle is all but over. Colin Carrie will be returned to Ottawa. Parkes' plagiarism debacle caused her to crash and burn last week. Ryan's fading with limited volunteers and a poorer effort compared to 2004 in the sign wars.
12 01 05 Student Slacker
The best result Sydney Ryan ever has was in the 1999 provincial election when he ran in Scarborough. Since then Ryan keeps banging his head against a Conservative brick wall in Oshawa. This is a hold for the Conservatives without any doubt. Ryan should look at taking another shot at a riding in Scarborough or Etobicoke next time. He might just finally get himself elected.
12 01 06 LJ Amundsen
While Harper's rise in Quebec will give him a lot of Ontario seats, this won't be one of them. A collapse in the Liberal vote will benefit the NDP and Greens much more than the Conservatives. Once people realize that the Liberal has no chance, and now they realize that, they'll vote NDP if only to stop a Conservative. While Sid Ryan is not at all "green", Jack Layton is, and most Greens know that the NDP is a top-down command-and-control party so Sid will do as he's told. So Greens won't be too afraid to vote NDP now that the Greens changed their platform to become quite NDP-ish (full of "ban this" and "ban that" and "bad corporations" and so on, they really should have stuck to their 2004 rhetoric and taken Conservative votes again, it was a far better strategy, but they lost Tom Manley who was the spokesman for that strategy).
10 01 06 Chicken Wing Charlie
My old home town. Syd Ryan is becoming a punchline as he continues to line up for one election loss after another. With the Conservative riding a wave, Ryan will get blown out once again. Oh well, Syd can start working on another loss when he runs here in the 2007 provincial election.
10 01 06 Ira Jasni
Aric H - True, Buzz did indicate that people should vote Liberal in ridings where there is no chance that the NDP can win... Oshawa is one of those. Sid Ryan has run and LOST both Federally and Provincially enough times to make it clear that SID CAN"T WIN... Lousie Parkes, the Liberal Oshawa candidate HAS WON municipally TWICE and by a large majority in comparison to the rest of the wards in the City!
Further more, I am a downtown Liberal commuter, and I think you should give your head a shake if you don't think the 10,000 of us that communte into the city each day only live in the Whitby-Oshawa riding. That portion of Oshawa is mostly retirees, not commuters. The commuters are the people who are populating the north east end of the City.
04 01 06 Not Non-Partisan
Wow, what a shocker! OSHAWA CAW SUPPORTS NDP CANDIDATE. zzzz.....
Carrie has never stopped working since his strong '04 showing. The turf that elected him in the last running of the lizards will elect him again on the 23rd. Especially given the CPC trend thats brewing.
05 01 06 A.S.
Given the patterns of the last election, it's hard to tell what was more surprising: that Colin Carrie won, or that he won by so little (y'know, the whole "advance poll" syndrome). Given how things are going *now*, entering 2006, it's potentially tragic for the anti-Tories if all efforts to galvanize around either (more likely) Ryan or (by default) Parkes are, quite simply, not enough--if we go by Mike Harris-era patterns, Carrie could well soar into the 40s or wherever, GM cuts or no GM cuts. Sure, Buzz and whomever's left-of-centre and sane is vouching for Sid Ryan--but there's still an impression-fight going btw/Buzz-hugging-Paul-Martin + Buzz-endorsing-Sid-Ryan. And even that could become moot in the end, even if the NDP gains ground at large. Hard to tell. Can *any* NDP beat a Tory now? Oshawa? Saskatchewan? Even British Columbia? Stay tuned...
04 01 06 Aric H
Unless most of the voters from the NDP and Liberal camps vote Liberal together here on the advice of Buzz Hargrove, the Liberals are out of the race in this riding. Hargrove said to vote NDP when it has a chance and this is one of those ridings and so people don't need to vote Liberal here to block a Conservative since it has the opposite effect. The Liberals are down in Ontario and so the question is how many of the deteriorating Liberal votes will go Conservative compared to how many will go NDP. Ryan may have a tougher time beating Carrie this time around although Jack Layton still has an interest in winning this seat as he was there again today so the NDP must still feel it can take it.
22 12 05 Ben
I know that the majority of GM line workers don't live in the riding but in the surrounding exurban area. Nevertheless a significant number of these hardcore red-neck old boys do call Oshawa home and Harper's message sells to this crowd like no other demographic in Ontario. So don't expect either the Liberals or NDP to wrest this seat from the Tories. While Ryan can expect to pick up lots of votes in the South End he can't expect well-off CAW workers to support him regardless of any uncertainty on the Auto Sector horizon. Toronto-bound commuters are the only group the Liberals can count on for votes and these stressed out people are not as significant a factor as in Whitby-Oshawa and other 905 ridings.
18 12 05 pundit2005
An interesting comparison by the obvious spinners for the Conservatives and the NDP. Both spend all their time slagging the Liberal candidate and then touting that Parkes has no chance.
Why would you slag a candidate with no chance?
My take is that they both know who is the real threat and are trying to drag down the burgeoning Liberal vote in this now GTA-905 riding. All polls are pointing to a minimum 10% Liberal lead with the NDP fading fast.
18 12 05 BB
I agree with Steve G ..this city will come down to a two horse race between the Conservatives and NDP. The CAW retirees have announced a debate dealing with auto issues and the Liberal candidate has refused to participate.. this is a fatal move.. insulting 20,000 CAW members is not a smart thing to do in Oshawa.
Carrie on the other hand is still thinking about it. Ryan has accepted.
The waffling by the Conservatives and the Liberals has handed Ryan the perfect opportunity to demonstrate his support for autoworkers but more importantly he can showboat his Party's Auto Strategy..which has won the support of local 222 CAW president Chris Buckley.
Since the Liberal has marginalized herself from the beginning of the campaign and once word gets out that she has now refused to debate in the CAW union hall, she will haemorrhage votes to the NDP candidate.
This is campaign is shaping up to be Ryan's to lose.
14 12 05 Steve G
This riding was featured by John Ibbitson in the National Post recently due to the closeness of the 2004 vote. Even in print, based on her quotes in the feature story, the Liberal candidate comes across as crass, rude, say-anything-to-get-elected type of politician, lambasting her Conservative opponent for daring to do some chiropractor work on the side. Sid Ryan, meanwhile boasts of having solid support on the "shop floor", but as I mentioned here earlier, union workers no longer blindly vote NDP - or for whoever the union bosses happen to be supporting nowadays. I can't see Colin Carrie losing any of the voters he had in the previous election but I can certainly envision Ryan picking up some voters who went Liberal last time. This riding is still too close to call but I would wager a guess that the Liberal candidate will fade by election day and this will become a two-man horserace between the NDP and Tories.
13 12 05 Red Bandit
Carrie hold. I wouldn't have said this a week ago but the Dipper numbers in Ontario - and across Canada for that matter - are really taking a beating. And on the Liberal front, last week Parkes came out with this lame duck attack on Carrie because he keeps up his practice .5 days a week to maintain his license as a Chiropractor. This was a cheap shot from someone who won't give up her city councillor day job to run in the election. I think Parkes blew it massively by making a stink of a non issue.
10 12 05 Campaign Trail
Ryan does a lot better in Oshawa than he used to do in Victoria-Haliburton. This is clearly a two way Liberal-NDP race with incumbent Carrie pulling along behind, but don't be surprised if the NDP-Liberal swing vote breaks decisively and puts Carrie in a distant 2nd. Layton is doing well and I think the NDP will be able to put the needed effort into this riding to win. Remember, the Libs are in contests in about 30-40 Ontario ridings, while the dippers are only fighting for about 6. Local events will add to the NDP vote and give them a breakthrough.
06 12 05 BB
I'm sure "pundit" wishes he could withdraw his latest commentary given the headline in today's Toronto Star.. "OSHAWA CAW LOCAL SUPPORTS NDP" I don't think you can be much cleared than that. CAW local president Chris Buckley together with CAW retirees are all supporting Sid Ryan. Now..what was pundit saying about bad news for NDP..?
It is clear the CAW do not view either Carrie or Parkes as allies in the drive to implement a new auto strategy for Oshawa workers. In addition Buzz Hargrove in an editorial piece todays National Post(Dec 6th) endorsed Sid Ryan.
Seems to me Ryan has had a very good week. He is everywhere in the media..radio..tv and newspapers.
Oshawa in a landslide for NDP
06 12 05 Steve G
I'm surprised to see all the confident predictions here in the riding of Oshawa, which saw the closest 3-way race in the country in 2004. Fact is that the national numbers, as well as the Ontario numbers, have barely budged since the last election and the result will be an equally close race in Oshawa this time around. I am similarly surprised to witness the level of influence some attribute to Buzz Hargrove. This may shock supporters of the Liberals or NDP, but auto workers do have minds of their own and in fact have voting patterns similar to their fellow suburanites and do not merely tow the line of big labour. They have relatively high-paying jobs and these days are more likely to vote Liberal or Conservative rather than NDP. Of the big labour NDP die-hards who remain, Buzz Hargrove's quasi-defection to the Liberals will sway about as many of them to change party colours as Jean Lapierre's defection did with Bloc voters when he turned Liberal (again) in the last election - that is, barely a dent. This one is still too close to call and all three parties have an equally good chance of taking it.
04 12 05 pundit2005
Buzz Hargroves recent endsorsement of a Liberal government is a crushing blow to local New Democrats. Couples With the recent job loss announcements, the endorsement of the Liberal plan for the auto sector just days after Layton visited the riding is a clear message to local autoworkers.
With Ontario polls still showing the Liberals in the low 40's and the Tories barely reaching 30, this riding is definitely swinging red.
On the street, the Liberals seem to out early in the sign wars and in the media, the Tories have a few signs and no media and even the Layton visit was underwhelming ( just an hour to make an announcement and then off to Saskatchewan). The NDP signs are still non-existent and they seem to be on the back heel. The Liberals have aggressively gone after soft NDP votes and seem to be making progress, even in the South Oshawa NDP bastion.
There is still a long way to go in this election and the dynamic could yet change but in Oshawa it has been a very good week for the Liberals.
04 12 05 BB
The recent events with the CAW has just about sealed this election for the NDPin Oshawa.
Thurs morning Dec 1st Jack Layton laid out a 4 point plan in the NDP's auto strategy to hundreds of CAW members at the union hall. Standing beside Jack and Sid Ryan was CAW local 222 presideent Chris Buckley sporting a Sid Ryan button.
Friday morning Dec 2nd Buzz Hargrove calls for a coalition of Liberal and NDP to form next government. Hargrove pledges support for Sid Ryan in Oshawa.
This is very very bad news for Louise Parkes and Colin Carrie who were both trying to appeal to the local 222 membership as the saviours of Plant #2.
Expect to see Hargrove,Buckley, Ryan , Broadbent in Oshawa to drive this message home. Followed by a Layton visit closer to election.
This riding is going NDP in a landslide.
02 12 05 Rebel
Hargrove's personal endorsement of the Liberals to be re-elected may just siphon off a vote or two from Ryan to re-elect Colin Carrie.
01 12 05 BB
Surely "pundit" is not seriously suggesting that the Beacon Project is going to replace the 3000 job losses directly from GM and the addition 20,000 indirect jobs lost if GM carries through with it's planned closure of plant #2 ?
The Beacon Project is about investment in Research and Development over several with a view to designing the next generation of environmental cars. It has zero to do with current production.If a new product is not found withing the next 12-18 months maximum the #2 plant closes. This means massive job losses for oshawa and surrounding communities.
Now, it takes a magician to see how this benifits the Liberals or the Tories. The Liberals have dragged their feet on a National Auto Policy since they scrapped the Auto pact 5 years ago. Leading to the recent GM job loss announcements.
The Tories are opposed to industry incentives which willhelp attract a new product line.
The NDP Leaders Tour just came to Oshawa with ed Broadbent. Layton laid out a 4 point Auto Policy for Canada. He said no other political party will get NDP support unless they support his auto policy. He has issued a challenge to the prime Minister.
Clearly, the NDP has raised the stakes and in the process grabbed control of the job loss issue in Oshawa. Standing beside Layton was Chris Buckley the president of local 222,he was wearing a Sid Ryan button.
It's clear to me who the CAW 222 leadership sees as thier champion.
Ryan will score big with autoworkers and take the riding back for the NDP.
29 11 05 Jeff
BB claimed on November 27 "The sitting house member Colin Carie never as much as asked a question in the House on the biggest job loss to hit the city in 30 years." In actual fact Carrie raised the GM layoffs in Question Period November 21, 22 and 23.
29 11 05 red bandit
Regardless of who wins in Oshawa, they will not amount to front bench material. However, Carrie's undoing in Oshawa won't be due to his staff or his personality. Oshawa is a volatile place that had the closest three way race in the country in 2004. The result could go anyway depending on who shows up on election day. The truth is that if there is a desire for change across the country this will strongly favour Carrie or Ryan. And if the lose of 3,000 jobs plays into the campaign - as it likely will - Ryan will have the upper hand. It is circumstances beyond his control, and a weak leader, that will hurt Carrie. But then again, he is the incumbent and that counts for something.
29 11 05 pundit 2005
BB once again tries to spin rather than deal with the facts. The Liberals negotiated the Beacon Project in the last 12 months, the largest one time investment into Oshawa in decades. Buzz Hargrove, head of the CAW, praises the provincial and federal Liberals for their commitment to workers in the auto sector. Within days of the announced potential layoffs, both McGuinty and Martin commit funds and leadership to issue. Nothing has been heard here from Ryan, Carrie, Layton or Harper.
Harper is on record opposing financial assistance for autoworkers and other threatene industry. No matter who wins, Layton will be on the outside looking in not at the table.
The Liberals, according to all polls, will be the largest party in tne new House and Oshawa voters know that. Oshawa will vote to be inside the negotiations, not peering in through the foggy window. The means a Liberal victory to offset the probable Tory gain in Oshawa-Whitby. A riding flip is a clear possibility.
27 11 05 Bobb
something is up in Oshawa. My brother in law who worked for Carrie last campaign told me over sunday dinner that he is going to work for Flaherty in Whitby. He feels that Carrie has let him down and is a lightweight with terrible staff. He believes the money and volunteers will be sucked out of Oshawa and has a feeling that Ryan peaked last election. His bet is Liberals for OShawa and Conservatives for Whitby...looks like a riding flip.
27 11 05 BB
One of the closest races in the country is about to unfold. The winner will be the candidate who can best articulate the fears and concerns of a rattled city. Over 3000 direct jobs and 20,000 indirect jobs will be impacted by GM's decision. The election in oshawa will turn on this issue..who best can handle it. Lets examine the positioning of the parties.
The sitting house member Colin Carie never as much as asked a question in the House on the biggest job loss to hit the city in 30 years. Clearly he is overwhelmed by the magnitude of the problem. his party asks one softballquestion and moves on.
The Liberals are in deep trouble. The CAW have been calling upon the Liberals for more then 5 years to introduce an Auto Strategy of Fair Trade since the Auto Pact was scrapped by the Liberals. Now they will pay the price of inaction. Parkes can only speak to municipal issues and will have zero credibility on this massive job loss.
Ryan is positioned to take this for the NDP. The CAW will endorse him as the person most likely to raise the profile of Oshawa auto workers in Ottowa.
24 11 05 pundit2005
Tories will vote NDP in solidarity with GM employees threatened by layoffs that are not scheduled until 2008, if at all. That is got to be the strangest comment I have seen on this site in a long time. Does Red Bandit really believe that anyone would buy that line. If so, he or she should really stop smoking what they are smoking or soon the police will banging down their door.
MLUNN raised reasonable points about the potential for all parties but it appears to me that his analysis regarding the Liberals makes the most sense. The Liberals know that in Ontario most of their ridings, especially in the GTA are safe seats so why waste resources trying to increase margins from 10,000 to 12,000.
Instead they will focus on seats that they can take away from the opposition and help them either form a majority or offset losses in other areas. IN Durham Region, Oshawa and Durham ridings were Liberal seats from 1993 to 2000 but were lost by small margins to Tories in 2000. A swing of as little as 2% from the Tories to the Liberals puts these two ridings back in Liberal hands.
The Tories know this and that is why they target Liberals in their attack brochures. The NDP is not even mentioned.
The Liberals negotiated the Beacon project, a 2.5 billion dollar investment into the auto sector, primarily in Oshawa. They know that the auto sector drives the Ontario economy so expect major support announcements (ie. real dollars) from both the Provincial Liberals and the Federal Liberals in the next few weeks.
Oshawa and Durham voters are driven by pragmatism not ideology and they know that real dollar investment trumps political promises by Leaders who represent parties who will never form the government after the election.
After all what would cause you to support a candidate, a promise to ask a question once in a while in question period or real influence in shaping government policy. The GM announcement was just to ticket to awaken the voters in these ridings and the Liberals will benefit because they hold the purse strings.
The Tory opposition to Beacon and the irrelevancy of the NDP federally only magnifies the Liberal advantage. Even Buzz Hargrove, the CAW union leader, is strongly supporting the Liberal initiatives and is rumoured to be considering a public endorsement of the Liberals.
21 11 05 red bandit
The announcement that thousands of jobs will be lost at GM is tragic and devastating news for those of us who live in Oshawa. I can only speculate that this will have a closing of the ranks effect, thus helping to shore up support for the NDP. I think even erstwhile Tory supporters like myself might feel inclined to vote NDP as an exercise in solidarity with their friends, family and work associates who will all be hurt by these lay-offs. I'm not a huge fan of the NDP but when job losses become personal, yeah it has a band wagon effect. Ryan's to lose.
18 11 05 M. Lunn
Looking at the polls, I think all three Parties have a legitimate chance at winning so until we get close to election day, I think it is too early to predict.
Conservatives: Being a mid-sized urban riding, the Conservatives should be in trouble, but on average they get in the low 30s in these types of ridings. That is why they won those type of ridings in BC, but not Ontario since the NDP/Liberals split the vote down the middle so if that happens again, the Tories will take it.
Liberals: With the Liberals being in big trouble in the polls last time around, they put all their resources into ridings that had an incumbent. This time around they will target either ridings they narrowly won or narrowly lost while ignore ones like Leeds-Grenville where they lost badly and most of the Toronto ridings they won heavily.
NDP: Most polls show the NDP is up from last election and as long as the NDP voters don't fear a Tory government, I suspect they will hold those numbers and therefore could take it.
17 11 05 Editor's Note:
In response to the various speculations on this website, Election Prediction Project has received the following statement from Mr. Andrew Morin, Executive Assistant to Colin Carrie MP:
Frankly, the assestion about me and local politics to be quite flattering but it is entirely unfounded. Besides I'm recently married and have a baby on the way this spring. I'd have to be Superman be able to launch a foray into local politics at such a busy time in my career.
So, the answer to this is, NO, I am not seeking a seat in the next municipal election in Oshawa. Period.
15 11 05 EP
Having Volpe campaigning for you means NOTHING. Volpe is plotting for the Liberal leadership race and will go campaign for any Liberal candidate that asks him to. In fact, campaigning for a losing candidate is more benefitial to Volpe as it means peddling out favours to a riding that will likely be easier to control.
13 11 05 pundit2005
Whisting by the graveyard will not get the job done. The NDP is still in teens in the GTA and LIberals on their worst day still top 40%. The Tories are attacking the Liberals because that is the enemy.
Carrie and crew know that the battle is being fought in the northern half of the riding and that the NDP is not a factor in that area. The Liberals and NDP will split the southern half and the Liberals and the Tories the northern half. That means a Liberal victory, short and simple.
11 11 05 IRAJ
Firstly... the arena is a non issue, this is a federal election, if it were municipal then maybe there might be a slim hope of an argument here. It's being built...get over it.
There is an appearance of instability in the ranks of the local NDP and Conservatives... Former Mayor Nancy Diamond has been seen around town a lot with NDP candidate Sid Ryan. Nancy has always been an active Conservative in Oshawa, and now she is following NDP candidate Sid Ryan around...
With Jim Flaherty running federally in the Whitby Oshawa riding next door, Colin stands a good chance of loosing a large portion of his volunteers and funding sources to that campaign.
Louise Parkes seems to have an organized campaign. I have bumped into her knocking on doors twice since the summer (nice lady). Not to mention she has arranged visits to Oshawa from several prominent Liberal ministers. It takes a strong organized campaign team and an party accepted candidate to have that many ministers visit one City in such a short time. I had the privledge of meet Minister Volpe while he was here and I have to say I was truly impressed with the man.
If you don't know who Minister Volpe is, you likely saw his picture on the back of Carries very partisan householders... The householders I recieved from Mr. Carrie (and I recieved three different ones) were nothing more than campaign propoganda.
07 11 05 bboru26@yahoo.ca
The comments by "pundit2005" leave a lot to be desired in terms of a serious political analysis. For starters ..all political parties conduct internal polling and the NDP numbers are every bit as strong today as they were at the close of the last campaign. Following Gomeryany serious pundit gives the Liberal vote over to the NDP not the Tories.
Now, as to why would Carrie focus on the Liberals and not the NDP...duhhhh..surely pundit 2005 can see the strategy..?..Carrie is focusing on the Liberals because they are hemoraging votes in Oshawa. Carrie wants to pick up his share..he knows the NDp vote will never migrate all the way across the political spectrum to the Tories..so he is trying to pick up the disgruntled Liberals.
As for Ryan losing votes over the areana..give your head a shake..Ryan scored huge points with seniors on fixed incomes..north oshawa residents who are up to their eyeballs with property taxes. Parkes scored with about 100 business owners in downtown oshawa who all live in Whitby and bowmanville.
06 11 05 Canukster
Pundit’s comments are right on the money. Colin Carrie’s recent householders reek of panic. Ironically, he points his finger at the Liberals for using taxpayer monies to fund their own projects. How then does he justify using tax dollars to circulate blatant election materials in what is supposed to be a non-partisan riding update? Carrie and his staff are finally getting the message that their time is limited. Rumour has it that Colin’s EA is already knocking on doors looking for votes as a municipal councillor. What’s the old adage about rats jumping a sinking ship? And Sid has been unnaturally quiet. His focus seems to be on the CUPE/OMERs show – maybe he’s looking to raise his profile at the provincial level…perhaps he’s thinking of changing races too?
01 11 05 pundit2005
Recebts comments by BB are nothing more than wishful thinking. Colin Carrie just put out a householder that looked more like an election brochure than anything and not one word in it dealt with Sid Ryan. Yet the document was covered in veiled and not so veiled attacks on the Liberals and on the local Liberal candidate.
Why would a sitting MP spend thousands to attack the Liberals and not the NDP? The answer is that polling for both the Liberals and the Conservatives have shown Ryan's support plummetting since his ill fated arena debacle. Ryan is so desperate to get back in the fight he is trying to use Toronto Sun columns to reach out to voters. Ontario's most left leaning candidate writing for Canada's most right leaning paper, boggles the mind, doesn't it?
Carrie's supporters and managers are in full panic due to the double whammy of disgust for their leader and the NDP free fall locally. They are trying to bring down Parkes while propping up Ryan as they know the only chance they have is to split the vote and come up the middle again.
National polls may vary but one thing is certain, the Liberals remain the most popular party in Ontario by a long shot and Oshawa is more and more a off-shoot of Toronto and less and less the old autoworker NDP stronghold.
Record growth in the city all in the Oshawa riding has swung this riding clearly to the Liberals at this time. It will be close but the real battle is whether the NDP will crack 25% this time. Colin Carrie is praying that they do.
22 10 05 BB
I dont believe the arena will be an issues in the election but it will have a minor residual effect. Who receives the benifit.. Parke's who pushed the issue over the heads off the voting public but she had the support of the non-voting business community..? Carrie who remained silent...or Ryan who championed on behalf of homeowners, pensioners and low income earners in terms of rising taxes. Come on folks.. we all know who won that battle.
Ryan has just been all over the radio and newspapers taking on pensioner issues.. a very important issue that effects a huge percentage in Oshawa. Carrie nor Parkes' are on the radar screen with respect to pensions.
Ryan is now a columnist for Toronto Sun.. which means his thoughts and comments on politics will be read by thousands of voters all across Oshawa over the next 5 months. Most importantly, the Sun is by far the most widely read newspaper in the Auto plant.
Ryans column this past week was about how the middle -class will be hit hard by the Liberals in terms of rising university tuition. Another issue that hits hard in oshawa.
Clearly, he is speaking to the issues.. unlike his opponents who are silent or still whining about an aerna.. which only raises property taxes.
the icing on the cake was Parkes voted herself a whopping salary increase just after she caused property taxes to go up.
06 10 05 Nick Boragina
I've been keeping track of the polls since before the 2004 election, and still regularly do. This riding has been in the NDP's column, mathematically at least, since the last election pretty well. Around 40% of people vote because of the party, so reasonably one could expect a 10% province wide gain for the NDP to turn into, at minimum, a 4% gain in this riding. These mathematical things are never exact, which is why I return to my earlier statement in my last prediction, this is a Bellweather riding. It's not so much bellweather in that it predicts the winner (the NDP has won here before) but in so that when one of the three parties "over performs" its average, it wins. All signs point to a well-preforming NDP, and for those reasons, I am throwing this one in the NDP column.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
This is probably the only Ontario riding and in fact the only one east of the Manitoba/Ontario border where a three way race will likely develop. Despite coming in third, this is an urban riding and the liberals have improved in urban Ontario so they only have to pick up a few more points and they could take this one. The NDP would have won this riding had it not been for the advanced polls so despite their waning support since the 80s, they can still take this, especially considering Jack Layton is the only one of three leaders who has an approval rating over 50%. The Conservatives could also hold this as their numbers haven't fallen outside the GTA and this is generally considered outside the GTA. Also Colin Carrie is a moderate within the Tories and a strong advocate of cleaning up the Oshawa Harbour. So too close to call now and I would even bet that on election night, all three parties will be in the lead at one point or another during the night.
13 09 05 pundit 2005
The National and Ontario polls are showing a strong swing to the Liberals and that has to help Parkes. The same numbers in 1997 and 2001 election an incompetent Liberal by a good margin. Parkes is no worse than Ivan Grose and many would say a lot better.
On the ground, the Tories seem to be in disarray and trying to find some way to disassociate Carrie from Harper. The Tory leader is the kiss of death in this urban riding.
The NDP tried the old create an issue dodge over the construction of a local arena but it failed to catch fire. The over the top approach in attacking a popular local Mayor and Council has resulted in defections from the NDP to the Liberals. Even the former 1997 Federal candidate for the NDP, local Councillor Brian Nicholson is rumoured to be running Louise Parkes' campaign. Also Parkes is receiving support from Mayor and the overwhelming majority of City Council.
Ryan is so spooked by the apparent defections that he is trying to build bridges by dialing back his opposition to the arena project. I guess when a rumoured 1500 people attended the ground-breaking, it causes you re-evaluate your position. He now is speaking in favour of the project claiming he had problems with the financial terms.
Ryan's collapse of support coupled with Carrie's anchor of a Leader spells good news for Parkes. It will still be a close raise, but provided Parkes doesn't shoot herself in the foot ( no guarantees here), it appears to be hers to lose.
19 08 05 elvis
In politics the world changes quickly. In Oshawa, it takes a little longer to realize that union bullies and bosses don't wield the clout they once used to.
Not to mention that many "blue collar workers" earn more than their "white collar" counterparts...and thats OK.....lots of folks are moving to Oshawa because they want to live in a better community. Sid Ryan only slams this city and made a fool of himself at the public meeting on the new sports complex...for anyone there or listening on the radio Sid made Howard Dean's scream sound like a whisper.
As for Colin carrie, he is taking credit for the Liberal platform. Let's remember that his party does not support the Beacon Project or new investment in the auto industry. Just because he mails his picture next to Buzz doesn't mean squat.
01 06 05 Plaid Pundit
No doubt this race will be a barnburner to watch.
But some of the assertions made here have little foundation. Fact: no one wants an election more than Ryan. He made the dumb move of opening an office well before the election was to be called. Like his provincial campaign, he's now on the hook for expensive rent -- nice move Sid. His profile has been battered over the arena fight. Add in all the hostility toward his ridiculous PublicPower coalition -- a front for old NDP blue hairs who've lost touch with Oshawa and this proves Ryan is nothing more than a community wrecker who's only out for himself.
Parkes is no different. She'd sell her dog to get elected. With her local reputation lying in tatters, she will run only because the feds have put a to her head and ordered her to run. Frankly, after taking out a sitting incumbent, she has no other choice but to run. Her integrity would be zero and it's already dicey at best.
With support for the Libs on the rise again in Ontario, this only spells good news for the Tories. Lots of blue Liberal votes are walking to the Tories especially in Oshawa. The MP is very popular with Liberals locally. Remember that during the 2004 election, the Tories won all the advance polls in Oshawa with an unknown candidate earning 40% of the vote. That was well before the Tories' national campaign hit a landmine in the final weeks. So their vote ceiling is higher than 35%. Besides Carrie has done a fine job since last June, solidifying his base across party lines and earning many NDP and Liberal converts to the cause. All the NDP spam on this thread is really just that. They just don't have the facts and just don't get it. Oshawa has changed boys! Wake up.
17 05 05 Nick Boragina
IF the tories are going to lose ANY ontario seats (and that's a big if) it will be to the NDP, who's numbers are up.
This is NOT a traditionally NDP riding, nor is it Tory, Liberal, or Bellweather. This is a riding where the 3 parties often top 30% and whichever of the three can edge the other one out with a better candidate or campaign wins.
17 05 05 BB
I disagree with MH's take on the Oshawa riding. Most Toronto city dwellers who are moving to Oshawa are more then likely open to voting NDP. The fact is the Conservatives have benifited enormously from the classic 3 way splits in Oshawa. More then 60% of the voters in Oshawa consistantly vote against the Tories .
Ryan has now proven himself to be the stronger candidate so he will benifit from soft Liberals and red Tories moving to his campaign. Belinda was a dagger in the heart of the Tories chances in 905 and the Oshawa Liberals are looking for a less divisive candidate then Louise Parkes. All this is great news for the well organised Ryan campaign.
16 05 05 pundit 2005
The Ryan camp seems to spining the tale of disharmony in the Liberal camp in order to steal votes. Nothing could be further from the truth. The Liberal candidate will be Louise Parkes, same as before.
This race is a three-way split, with all have a chance to win. Three weeks ago, it looked like votes were heading away from the Liberals but recent polling seems to have reversed that trend.
Could it be that Ontario cannot stomach a Harper government? Recent elections in Oshawa confirmed the Tories have a vote ceiling at about 35%, with the rest split between the NDP and Liberals.
It is becoming clear that this riding is leaning away from the Tories, but in what direction?
A lot wll depend on national trends and the campaign.
14 05 05 Bus driver
This will be one of the most interesting races in the country. Carrie and Ryan have both declared but the Liberals seem to be in mired in internal conflict just days before the writ is dropped...and no candidate selected as yet.
This is not good news for Mr Carrie who squeaked by Ryan in the dying days of the last campaign..thanks to Paul Martin's demonization of Harper. This tactic will not work a second time in Oshawa as Ryan has now beaten the Liberals into 3rd place both Federally and Provincially.
Recent polling in Ontario show the support bleeding from the Liberals is breaking to the NDP in big numbers. This is good news for Ryan. If the Liberals are unable to come up with a high profile candidate this contest is all but over.
Carrie has not be a strong advocate for Oshawa in his less then steller 10 months in Ottawa. He is a nice man but quite unable to represent this city the way it needs to be. Ryan has the experience and the passion to deliver for Oshawa in Ottawa. He is not afraid to speak out as witnessed by his opposition to local City Council forcing taxpayers to pay for a sports stadium thereby raising property taxes. Carrie ducked out of the Tosca hall without speaking , leaving it to Jerry Quellette and Jim Mcneil to voice the Tory support for raising property taxes. This will hurt Carrie and Parkes in North Oshawa.
The Marina users spokesperson Larry Ladd has already gone on record in support of Sid Ryan saying he is the only one to have kept this issue alive .Carrie could not even arrange a meeting with the Minister of Transportation and the Liberals have given Oshawa the finger for the past 12 years on this issue.
As for Ryans residency..thats a red herring..all 3 candidates live in same riding..Oshawa /Whitby. I'm sure Jim Flaherty wont take too kindly to a campaign that says a person from Whitby cannot represent the voters in Oshawa..particulary when he will be asking the North West quadrant of Oshawa to vote for him.Same goes for Judi Longfield.
12 05 05 MF
I think this riding will go Tory again, but not because of a big shift to the right among autoworkers. If autoworkers are so right-wing, how come Windsor is a dead zone for the Tories? Rather, I think it can be explained by demographic changes. Oshawa is increasingly an exurb of Toronto. The city has seen an influx of people looking for cheap housing. Most of these people are working class, but they don't have a strong class consciousness like CAW autoworkers do. Generally in North America, exurban voters tend to be pretty conservative. So given this influx, I say it'll be a narrow Tory win.
Prediction: 38% CON, 35% NDP, 25% LIB
08 05 05 Aric H
Up until the last minute last year this riding was going to go NDP as can be seen from the fact that Sid Ryan only lost it by about 500 votes. It was the last minute vote shift to the Liberals away from the NDP which actually elected the Conservative here which was not expected since only 1/3 of this riding voted Conservative while 2/3 voted centre or left. If the NDP gets decent numbers in Ontario they could take it, but so could the Liberals or the Conservatives, so I really don't know at this point.
04 05 05
Who knows. Tight 3 way race again that can break in any direciton. If I had to make a call based on the climate today I would have to say the NDP. They came in 2nd to the Conservatives last time and it makes it hard for the Liberals to say they are the ones to default to. Expect big NDP resources here while the Liberals focus on seats they already hold.
04 05 05 Kyle Simunovic
Though riding to predict. I think it could go either Conservative or NDP. It all depends where the Liberal vote goes. Alot of the Liberal vote will break off and whoever gets the majority of it will win.
04 05 05 Stuart
With a 3 time loser in Sid Ryan and the Liberals in ruins this riding will a shoo-in for to the Tories. Carrie's done a good job for Oshawa. How can Ryan even look the voters in the face and run again? A 3 time loser just can't win this riding. Prediction: Tories 45%, NDP 25%, Libs 25% with the Greens holding the balance.
04 05 05 pundit 2005
This one is totally up for grabs. Last time the three major parties were separated by only 1305 votes. The same three candidates, incumbent Colin Carrie for the Conservatives, local Oshawa Councillor Louise Parkes for the Liberals, and Labour leader Sid Ryan for the NDP.
Conservative Colin Carrie squeaked up the middle as the Liberals and NDP trained their guns on each other. That will not happen again. Mr. Carrie will now have to defend the fort and as polls show that the Conservatives are a viable alternative, he will also have to convince Oshawa voters that his leader does not have horns and a tail.
Liberal Parkes will have to defend her leader, and the ADSCAM debacle, as well as some controversial local decisions. The recent announcement of funding for environmental clean at the Oshawa harbour will give her a small boost.
Sid Ryan was given a free ride last time regarding his residence outside the riding. This time, he will have to explain why he doesn't live in the riding, despite this being his third attempt at election. He has been a strong critic of local government and the acrimony between his supporters and the popular local Mayor may cause him some problems. There are also rumours that certain high profile Councillors who supported him in 2004 have now switched allegiances due to his criticisms of their decisions.
In 1994, 1997, and 2000, fear of the Reform party drove moderate voters into the arms of the Liberals. In 2004, that didn't occur as very few people gave the unknown Carrie any hope against high profile candidates from the two other parties. In 2005, expect both the Liberals and the NDP to raise the spectre of a radical right wing government in this centre left leaning riding.
The winner of this race will be the one who best demonizes the opponents and soothes the voters regarding the warts of their own parties and leaders.
This one will be just as close as 2004 and expect to wait late into the night for a result.
04 05 05 Nick
Oshawa is a very unique riding, as I have learned over the past few months with my parents and sister living there. It's typical Auto Town, middle-aged men with money and debt up to their eyeballs. Oshawa is also a GTA city, with a lot of commuters who go to Toronto to work. People need to realize that auto workers are NOT NDP supporters - they want lower taxes, criminals to hang for their crimes and marriage to be for a man and woman. When you combine that with the GTA commuter element and the fact that the Tories are polling higher than they were during the election last year, I can't see this seat switching hands anytime soon.
02 05 05 Red Tory
Oshawa was the closest three-way race in the last election with Carrie defeating a red-faced Syd Ryan. Ryan believes he should be MLA or MP or dog catcher of Oshawa simply out of entitlement. What Ryan doesn't understand is that his running here actually does the Tories a favour. By splitting the Liberal vote, Carrie will win every time.
02 05 05 Craig
Colin Carrie has one additional advantage this time: incumbency factor. If the NDP were to nominate Sid Ryan again, he should win on a 3-way split. Being from the socialist wing of the NDP, Sid is out of touch with the middle-class suburban voters that dominate outside of the auto plants. The Liberals should be strong as well, as this is still the GTA which is their stronghold. However, Carrie takes it on the split. Predicted results: CPC 34%, NDP 31%, LIB 30%, GRN 4%, others 2%.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
I am not so sure the NDP will pick this up this time around. Sid Ryan was a star candidate while Colin Carrie has taken a strong lead in advocating Oshawa Harbour be cleaned up. This use to be an NDP riding, but it has gone PC in the last three provincial elections and the combined right wing vote would have won this in the last four elections. The NDP may win if they pick up enough of the liberal votes, but I don't think this is a guarantee. Although, should the Conservatives lose one of their Ontario seats, this is probably the most likely candidate.
26 04 05 JC
Colin Carrie is going to lose this time around, A vote split allowed him to win and he will not be so lucky this time. The NDP will take this seat back.

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