5:07 PM 12/01/2006

Prediction Changed
5:28 PM 12/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
Russ Hiebert
Progressive Canadian
Brian Marlatt
Jim McMurtry
Green Party/Parti Vert
Pierre Rovtar
Libby Thornton

Russ Hiebert

2004 Result:
Russ Hiebert
Judy Higginbotham
H. Pummy Kaur
Romeo De La Pena
Pat Taylor

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

11 01 06 Ed
A weak Liberal campaign by a virtually unknown candidate (compared to their 2004 candidate who was a poll-topping councillor) combined with a good performance in opposition and strong party support of the Conservative MP makes this an easy Conservative win.
07 01 06
A large seniors population aligned with agriculture and semi-conservative views for the most part will constitute a slim Hiebert win but he is going to need to work hard and look for the NDP to make gains
04 01 06 Surrey Voter
Check your fact: Lynn Stephens represented Langley and none of that riding is in South Surrey-Cloverdale. Also, Surrey Cloverdale elected Kevin Falcon as MLA, more of a Conservative.
04 01 06 my two cents
I'm not prepared to call a winner here, but it WILL be close. Last election, the Liberals won only a few Surrey polls, but found support in White Rock equal to the Conservatives. Expect Morgan Creek to give the Liberals a boost this time around . The key here, come election night, will be strategic voting (or a lack thereof). The Conservatives can no longer afford to take any GVRD riding for granted.
04 01 06 Fabian B
The Conservatives will win this riding easily. it is their most secure riding in Surrey. SS-WR Cloverdale is the most socially conservative area of Surrey and holds many seniors who traditionally vote Conservative. Hiebert hasn't generated any controversy in his brief 18 month MP career--unlike Gurmant Grewal. Even Frank Bucholtz, a commentator on local affairs in the Surrey Leader conceded this is a certain Tory win.
30 12 05 ChrisB
I cannot decide how this riding will go, having lived near there all my life. Traditionally it has had right wing representation both federally and provincially. However, as has been noted, Val Meredith was a moderate who came in on the early wave of Reform as a populist/economic conservative not a social conservative. Lynn Stephens, the long time MLA, was also a very centrist representative, particularly for the Campbell Liberals (and not too well liked by the party by the end!). This riding has also seen massive change in the last ten years as the Highway 10/Fraser Highway/South Surrey strip gets thousands of new townhouses and condos, bringing young couples who cannot afford Vancouver out to the Valley. It is no longer the small town farm community mixed with the 1 acre plus suburban households.
Add it all up and I think this is out of the bible belt and moving towards more moderate candidates and policies ergo I see (very tentatively) a win for the Liberals.
27 12 05 Surrey Voter
In 2004, the Liberals can't take this riding with a city councillor who receive more votes than Jim. I don't know how you would think the Liberals have a chance in this riding. I say Conservative will win this easily.
23 12 05 Elliot
Keith is right that the Liberals have a good chance of taking this seat. McMurtry's campaign has started strong and he has many well seasoned political veterans helping him out, from the provincial Liberals and Surrey town council as well as the mayor of Whiterock. I wouldn't call this a Conservative party stronghold though as Val Meredith was a moderate politician who got sideswiped by a right wing neoconservative lawyer the Conservatives planted from Vancouver. This is an increasingly politically moderate riding.
20 12 05 Analyst
I'm going to say that the Liberals are going to win narrowly here. The demographics of this riding having been changing rapidly even in the last year. There has been tremendous development here. The entire Morgan Creek area is practically brand new with large expensive homes selling for upwards of $700,000. Lots of professional types are moving in here now in large numbers and middle class families into spacious homes near Cloverdale. In Cloverdale itself, a large casino has opened up again changing the working population in that area. South Surrey/White Rock itself is now becoming a very upscale suburban area - demographically I would say at least the Western half of the riding (and probably the most populous part) demographically more closely resembles Oakville, Ontario as opposed to Abbotsford, B.C. Narrow Liberal win now especially with the Liberal numbers trending higher in B.C.
19 12 05 Keith
I think this prediction of this riding should go to "Too Close" from a CPC victory. The Liberals seem to have the momentum here in B.C. (not so in the rest of the West). The Gateway project, the Prince Rupert Port, Canada Line etc. are helping Martin and the Liberals here. Interestingly, the DemocraticSpace Seat prediction now is predicting a narrow Liberal win here from a former prediction of a CPC win. I would say that is true. At the very least, this can only be said to be a marginal CPC seat now - like West Vancouver last election. I say that West Van will go strongly Liberal while South Surrey/White Rock/Cloverdale could now go either way. If the CPC has not flagged this riding as one they should be putting resources into, they should now because they now are in danger of losing this riding - a former stronghold.
18 12 05 Victor A.
Despite having a competent MP, I don't believe Conservatives will hold onto this one. They are losing more ground than ever before in the Lower Mainland and every polls shows Liberals comfortably leading in this area of the province and in the province as a whole. Who would have thought that the Liberal candidate would come that close to beating the Conservatives in 2004. Actually, out of 308 ridings, this is the riding that saw the highest percentage increase of the popular support for the Liberal Party. McMurtry should be able to win it, as long as he works on it and Martin doesn't make any major mistakes in January. I really think Conservatives are in hot water in B.C. this time around and could and will likely lose as much as 10 to 12 ridings, most to the Liberals but some to the NDP. Anyways, I think this one looks more and more like a Liberal territory. Liberal gain.
04 12 05 DL
This seat is probably low hanging fruit for the Liberals. They came close in 2004 and all the indicators are that Conservative support in BC is in a freefall. Demographically all the Surrey seats are becoming more and more multi-cultural and this is always bad for Tories. At the very least this seat should be considered a tossup.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
This is not a safe conservative riding anymore. South Surrey is traditionally part of the Conservative belt stretching from Tswwassen to Hope, but unlike Abbotsford, this is a commuter community, not the heart of the Bible Belt. Val Meredith was a moderate Conservative as most residents of this riding are, while Russ Hiebert is a religious fundamentalist which has the support of some, but not enough to win this riding. The Conservatives still have a better than even chance at holding this, but it is far from a sure thing, especially if the liberals choose a strong candidate.
01 09 05 HM
Let's get this straight: a new, unknown young social conservative defeats a long time incumbent in a nomination race, gets massive and continual bad press, has his own board turn against him, runs against a long term popular municipal councillor with tons of money backing her, and wins by 3500 votes. Now he's been in for a year, getting lots of positive press, and is chair of both the border caucus AND the crime task force. Not only that, but local distaste for the Libs is at an all time high. The extremist rhetoric was unloaded last election and has been proven to be the pure spin it is. The only hitch could be how the federal campaign is run, but based on local influence, this is a lock - no one can touch him. The Libs have given this one up and are looking for star candidates to go elsewhere rather than waste the effort in this riding.
09 07 05 RP.
I agree with Mike D., although I did not know that the Mustel data had a separate breakdown for Vancouver. I was calling this a Liberal pick up when I had the Cons at 29%, let alone 18%!!!!
05 07 05 Mike D
Mustel released devastating polling numbers for the Conservatives in the GVRD. At only 18%, they don't have any safe seats west of Langley. Indeed, maybe no seats at all. It appears right-of-centre voters are migrating to the Liberals despite Gomery. Hiebert, a new Conservative incumbent elected with a modest margin in 2004, has the odds stacked against him.
06 06 05 hatman
I really can't see any Conservative ridings switiching over to the Liberals, and the way it seems this one will be a Grit-Tory race once again. This riding is in a Conservative part of Surrey, and it will be reflected come election night- whenever that is. This riding has voted for the tories (or the Canadian Alliance/Reform) since 1974. It's not going to change now, especially if the tories are more popular than normal.
01 06 05 M. Lunn
If they had Val Meredith as their candidate, who is a moderate, this would be an easy Tory win. Kevin Falcon who is one of the more right leaning provincial liberals won massively in the last provincial election. That being said, the demographics have changed a lot and this is a fiscally conservative area, but not part of the Bible Belt like Abbotsford. If the Tories could get rid of the religious right element, this would be a safe riding.
01 06 05 TAN
That Higginbotham was even in striking distance here suggests this one can remain in play so long as the Liberals hold at 2004 levels. Most of the below commentary is absolutely right--this is a slice of Alberta that got lost in the mountains and turned back. But demographics have changed, and the fact that Hibert--a bible-thumper who set loose his flock and knocked off moderate Reformer Val Meredith to take the nomination--topped out where he did suggests that there is a ceiling to right-wing support in the area. All the talk about gay marriage (probably a done deal once we go to the polls, anyway) isn't about to move that ceiling, either.
The 2004 results were probably just as much a shock to the electorate of SS-WR-C as they were to us outsiders, and the fact that this is suddenly no longer perceived as a safe Conservative seat will certainly add some new variables into play: we may see a more committed Tory campaign (although I can't speak to its performance last time) and also an impact on both anti-Conservative turnout and anti-Conservative tactical voting. No call yet, but closing a 3000 vote gap won't be a walk in the park, either.
26 05 05 Koby
Federal politics in BC is no longer defined by regional animosity to Ottawa. Social issues are now dominant and Vancouver is every bit as socially liberal as Toronto if not more so. By the time the next election rolls around Russ Hiebert’s social conservatism will be just as much an issue as Gomery. Given, the numbers right now I would say possibly more so.
BC already allows gay adoption.
22 05 05 Bear and Ape
Thank you Kobe for that sermon. You are well quoted, even if you are not unbiased nor non-partisan. That is perfectly fine, but let's inject some objectivity. The big issue in this (eventual) election is going to be Liberal party corruption, not which tellytubby is purple or which Surry school board is going to burn books or whatever that verbose first 2/3 of your posting was about. Hiebert may be extreme and ill informed (which is not a rare thing for a Conservative, we're certain anyone of the people who frequent this site could come up with a number of people who fit that profile) but he won last year. He now has the benefit of being the incumbent AND the benefit that his closest (possibly only) rival is part of a party that is seen as a bunch of crooks. People disgusted with the Liberals will likely vote Conservative. If they don't like Hiebert they will vote for someone else, hold their noses and vote liberal, or stay home. Either way Liberals will not gain votes and the Cosnervatives will win once again in a riding that has voted right-wing for as long as we both can remember.
08 05 05 Koby
Hiebert has not said whether he thinks the purple teletubby is gay -- at least, he has not to my knowledge. However, he has spoken about gay marriage, gay adoption and One Dad Two Dads Brown Dads Blue Dads. According to Hiebert, if gay marriage is allowed to continue then, the door is open to gay adoption and more children will be allowed to hear that its ok to have two moms "if they’re nice to you and if you like them.” The latter is a fear he shares with former Alliance leader Stockwell Day. The strange thing about such a take is this: The Supreme Court in 2002 found against the Surrey school board and as gay couples will receive at a minimum equal martial rights minus the designation “married”, the path for gay couples to have the same freedom to adopt as straight couples is sealed regardless of what happens with bill 38..
In the school board decision the Supreme Court ruled that the board is authorized to ban a book from being used in the classroom. However, the board must act on “strictly secular and non-sectarian principles" and avoid "religious dogma or creed". The ban did not meet such criteria and such it "was unreasonable in the context of the educational scheme laid down by the legislature". The court added that the Provincial school act “does not does not limit in any way the freedom of parents and Board members to adhere to a religious doctrine that condemns homosexuality but it does prohibit the translation of such doctrine into policy decisions by the Board, to the extent that they reflect a denial of the validity of other points of view”.
Hiebert seems to be confused about the ruling. March 25th 2005 in the House of Commons “A school board in my riding fought a case all the way to the Supreme Court of Canada in recent years for the right to a curriculum that represents the values and concerns of parents. The parents won that case, but as a result of the B.C. appeal court decision redefining marriage, the province of B.C. is already being sued by activists who want to force same sex marriage into the public school curriculum.” Just to note, parents were informed about the three books prior to them being read. 17 of 20 parents signed a petition asking that the books be read. 3 of 20 parents objected and an “activist” Surrey school board dusted off a 44 year old statute to have the books banned. The court case cost the Surrey school district over a million dollars in tax payers money.

Hiebert appears to be ill informed and holding views that many people would regard as extreme. This is not good for him. Hiebert would do well to heed what happened to one of architects of the Surrey ban. Provincial MLA hopeful Marry Pollack was crushed in a Surrey bye election. Heibert was one reason way this riding was closer than many suspected the last time and if the Liberals win he will be the reason this time.
05 05 05 BrianJA
This is the riding my father lives in. It borders the USA on the south side and those American, right-wing vibes flow strongly through this riding. This is the most conservative riding in Surrey, bar none, and a boulder painted blue will win this one for the Tories. The Liberals will take a little chunk and the NDP will manage a few thousand votes, but the Conservatives will walk away with a victory here in South Surrey. Prediction: Conservative hold with 40% or more of the vote.
04 05 05 BLJ
Located in the small "c" conservative belt in the southern suburbs of Vancouver. With results of CPC - 42.7%, Liberal - 36.8%, and NDP - 14.4%, the Liberals performed better in 2004 than one would expect in this riding. Now, however, with CPC incumbency and the fact that Liberals have better success in urban areas, this should remain a CPC hold.
04 05 05 R Schwarz
A large portion of this district is made up of wealthy seniors, country music fans, and the religious right. The incumbent Russ Hiebert is proud of his Christian 'values' and is using them to gain strong support among the more conservative voters in his district. A few months ago in conjuction with several churches a rally was held at his office in support of "traditional marriage". He took a lot of flack in the letters section of the local press for his rigid views, but there were just as many letters from those who supported him. Add to this a lack of support for the Liberal party caused by the sponsorship scandal and Hiebert is sure to be easily reelected.
04 05 05 M. Lunn
Will Probably stay conservative, but a liberal upset is possible if there is a conservative backlash for triggering an early election. Historically this was a very conservative area with a large senior population in White Rock while the rest being mainly farmland. But over recent years, many high-end homes have been built in Cloverdale from people moving out from the city. These people are fiscally conservative, but socially liberal, so many will vote liberal. Russ Hiebert's social conservatism may sell well further East in the Fraser Valley, but this area is really no longer a part of the Bible Belt, but more a commuting suburb of Vancouver.

Submit Information here

Provincial Index
Federal Election - 2006
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Milton Chan, 1999-2005 - Email Webmaster