2:24 AM 19/01/2006

Prediction Changed
1:47 AM 22/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Saul Andersen
Robin Baird
Western Block
Bruce Burnett
Ariel Lade
Fred Mallach
David Mulroney
Denise Savoie

Hon. David Anderson

2004 Result:
David Anderson
David Turner
Logan Wenham
Ariel Lade
Derek J. Skinner

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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17 01 06 DJC
I am not a New Democrat by any stretch of the imagination but I think that you cannot help but predict this riding will fall to the NDP - the combination of strong NDP performances in 2 of the 3 provincial ridings which make up this constituency, the absence of a David Anderson on the ballot (who probably drew off a certain portion of the NDP vote by being on the left of the Liberal party) and the lack of any momentum behind any Liberal candidates at all all points towards an NDP victory.
17 01 06 TAW
With respect to Mr. Lade's supporters, the bulk of the small-green vote in Victoria will go to Denise Savoie. Many of these being pragmatic civil servents who in the past sucked it up to vote for our previous Environment Minister, who in all fairness has been one of the single biggest reason the BC coast has maintained an oil development moritorium.
16 01 06 Victoria Native
A Green win, much as I would like to see it, seems unlikely considering the same Green candidate received roughly 12% of the vote last time. A good showing for the Greens, but a long leap from victory. Anderson was a key Liberal cabinet minister and well regarded, Victoria-born, environmentally minded Liberal. Yet he only beat the NDP last time by 2300 votes. The politics in this region tend towards the progressive, even among higher income earners. With the Liberal implosion, Anderson retiring from politics and the lack of a "big-name" candidate for the Liberals, it seems inevitable that the NDP will at last overtake the Liberals and take this riding.
16 01 06 TedMacDon
As if the green party will win here. That's a ridiculous presumption.
Anyway, Denise Savoie has this one unless the Libs can gain enough due to the scare factor. The conservatives may gain some ground, but never enough to gain the seat. It's just not a Conservative riding. In this case, Denise Savoie is greener than the last NDP candidate, and Greener than the Green Party candidate even. That translates into big votes. She's also got the highest profile, and appeals to both Liberals and NDP'ers. Probably appeals to the Libs more than their own Candidate.
16 01 06 Jack Layton's Mustache
There is no question about it - Victoria will go NDP, followed by the Liberals, then Conservatives, then Greens. There are several reasons:
- Victoria is an NDP stronghold. There was a difference of only about 1000 votes between the Liberals' Anderson and the NDP's David Turner in the last election, and it is no secret that, among potential NDP voters, Turner was an extrememly controversial (and some would say unattractive) candidate.
Denise Savoie, by virtue of her record on Victoria council, her personal popularity and strong environmental record, will capture enough votes to get elected.
- There is no consensus among grassroots Liberals in this riding as to where to go after David Anderson. David Mulroney won the nomination by acclamation, and, following Paul Martin's decision to dump Anderson from cabinet, there was very little interest in the riding for participating in the current Liberal government. Mulroney has neither the record nor the personal charisma to attract and unify enough Liberal votes to win the tight race in this riding.
- The CPC is making no effort to win over this riding. The Conservatives are once again represented by a less than stellar candidate. The CPC came in third in the last election, and there is no reason to expect anything different.
- The Greens are a non-entity in Victoria. Because of internal problems, have not capitalized on the gains made in 2004. They may blame the media, but the Greens have had every opportunity to prepare for this election during the previous minority parliament, and they did not.
Savoie has a strong environmental record, and is active in the community as part of the cyclists coalition.
16 01 06 Islander
The January 12 Ipsos-Reid poll puts the green party at 16% in British Columbia. Lade is a strong Green candidate, and everyone seems to agree that the Victoria area has a lot of green-leaning voters. I'm betting Lade will come first or second and surprise a number of people. The NDP will do well also, but this is definitely still TCTC.
15 01 06 joy
Denise Savoie has definitely won the lawn sign war. The Conservatives were second. At first no Liberal signs were to be seen. A few then began to appear on public property. When the polls began to show that a Conservative government was likely, a few more Liberal signs began to show up in front of private homes. The Conservative vote is solid, but not going to grow in this riding with a university and a well-educated electorate. As has been the case, the question will be who is perceived by large progressive majority of the electorate as having the best chance of keeping out the Conservative. Savoie of the NDP seems to have the edge.
15 01 06
Every election, the majority of the posts say the NDP will win hands down but the reality is that they don't. This always happens every election and they end up going for the liberals to stop the conservatives. This is the way we vote in BC - not for anyone but against someone else. BY the way, the conclusion of an NDP win ignores the fact that election after election at quite a number of polling stations particularly in the eastern part of the riding, the NDP actually polls behind both the Tories and Liberals at quite low ratios to the total votes cast. Further, the inner city part of the riding in James Bay is undergoing a demographic transisition with lots of rich retired people from Ontario, Alberta and the US moving into luxury high density, condos near the ocean. This area was traditionally a very, very strong NDP area but I'm not sure anymore given the development and new immigration - I think the NDP vote will be quite diluted in the NDP's traditional James Bay/Fairfield bastions and will be very low as usual in the upscale eastern established neighbourhoods.
14 01 06 cal varnson
David Mulroney continues to pick the wrong ridings and wrong elections to run in
Savoie has the prov NDP behind her but they have been wounded by the recent mla pay flip flop
Victoria has strong conservative roots (prior to 93)...... Baird may be able to ride National coatails
13 01 06 CDE
Not sure why this is still TCTC. Layton was on the Island yesterday, but in Nanaimo-Alberni and North Island, because those two need a push to get them over the top. The NDP is going to take at least four and likely five of the Island ridings. Victoria is a sure bet for the NDP with the national Liberal meltdown.
12 01 06 Brent
Time to throw this one into the NDP column, folks. With Anderson not running and the Liberals tanking nationally, this one will slip back to the Dippers, no doubt. Look for Savoie to win this by about 5% margin on E-Day. Yes, a definite NDP pickup!
11 01 06 BC voter
This riding has been profiled by several TV networks now, and all are saying Savoie by a fair margin. This is no longer TCTC.
10 01 06 LJ Amundsen
This one goes kNeeDeeP. Green vote will drop due to leadership splits in both provincial and federal parties recently, and low internal morale and incompetence in its national campaign. Liberal vote in the toilet due to loss of Anderson, extremely popular including among Greens. NDP propaganda on genuine Liberals and Greens is working, at least in BC, as evidenced by the 2005 provincial election. Thing is, to get elected here, you have to be "green" one way or another.
Some people think Anderson would accept the Green Party nomination here, win it, and take the leadership. But he didn't in this election. Maybe too bad. It would make Canadian politics interesting.
09 01 06 Vic Rez
I attended a debate between the major parties tonight @ UVIC and I must say I was blown away by most of the candidates. Robin Baird, for a conservative, is pretty brave for attending, especially a debate held at a left-leaning university like UVic. He was under fire from a few students during the debate. His message was get out and vote, not necessary for him. Ariel Lade, also did very well, being praised by the majority of his opponents. He was a bit nervous, but gave the impression that he is a really contender. Fred Mallach, the marijuana candidate, did alright overall, but seemed to be there for comedic relief. And the real shocker for me was David Mulroney, the liberal candidate. He was well spoken, funny, and made his points quite clear. I brushed him off as a possible winner but if the rest of the residents of Victoria attended the debate I think he would have a real chance in winning. The disappointment of the night for me was the NDP. Denise Savioe did not attend the debate, for reasons I am not aware of and in her place was Saanich candidate Jennifer Burgis. She was the weakest out of the candidates, however, when she stopped reading the same notes off over and over again, she did seem to perform better near the end. I was going to vote NDP prior the debate; however, I am seriously considering liberal and green. My prediction still stands in Victoria; I believe the NDP will take Victoria. For Ms. Savoie's case, let's hope she attends future debates in the future. (Final thought: Victoria will go NDP, but it will be close)
08 01 06 Bernard
I will point a few historical facts about this riding.
First, other than 2004, the right has either won or come second in every election. To base assumptions of 2006 on 2004 is to ignore the history of the riding.
Victoria was one of the ridings that the right suffered in during the Reform/PC era. In 1988, 1993, and 1997 the combined right wing would have won the riding. Since 1972 the right has only scored significantly less than 20 000 votes in 2004.
2004 also saw a large shift of right wing vote to David Anderson because the business community hated David Turner that much.
To not take the CPC seriously as a contender to win is not to understand the riding.
08 01 06 Vortigern
When the Liberals announced their BC strategy, among the litany of spending promises was one to fund improved sewage treatment for Victoria, thus cleaning up the harbour. David Anderson quite publicly contradicted his own party, commenting that the money would be better spent in a number of other areas.
After being dumped from cabinet, despite his seniority, popularity, and skill as environment minister, his clear disapproval of the Martin Liberals is hardly surprising. Comments like this from the sitting MP are nails in the coffin for Liberal chances in Victoria.
04 01 06 my two cents
Some have claimed that the Conservatives didn't win a SINGLE poll last election. In truth, they won 6 of the 200+ polls in this riding - that's why they'll likely be fighting the Greens for third. The NDP won most of Victoria, The Liberals dominated Saanich and Oak Bay. Of course, the candidate also plays a role and Anderson's votes will likely disperse to all corners of the political map, but most heavily on the Left. Savoie is the one to beat this time 'round.
04 01 06 Fabian B
This Riding shouldn't even be placed in the TCTC column. Its a certain NDP gain. Victoria is the home base of Carole James, the popular NDP Provincial Leader and has a strong pro-NDP base of sipporters. The NDP candidate, Denise Savoie, has high name recognition as a City Councillor and should win the riding easily now that popular Liberal incumbent David Anderson is retiring. The fact that the Liberals had to chose someone with Mulroney's surname will turn off some potential Liberal voters too.
29 12 05 CDE
Denise Savoie will win this one with room to spare. Most of the riding went NDP provincially and Anderson only won by 2000 votes last time. Savoie's record on city council will give her a good edge. The Liberal is just another Liberal lawyer with nothing distinguishing him locally. Same can be said for the local Tory.
26 12 05 love, sydney
Anderson won on his personal popularity the past two elections alone, but the one who has done the best job of selling themselves as Anderson's heir apparent is Savoie. The NDP machine is poised to sponge up a lot of disgruntled Grits, while the liberals will also bleed a little to the right and Baird. No knock against Mulroney, who is a hard-working candidate. But it would take a major fright factor to convince more than a handful of NDPers to sit in the Grit car for another run.
26 12 05 Steve G
Although I cannot claim to be an authority on BC ridings, I am going to call Victoria for the NDP. It has been consistent in virtually every poll since the campaign began that the NDP is surging in BC, and Vancouver Island forms a significant portion of this strength. The NDP came within less than 2500 votes of toppling a well-respected left-wing environmentalist Liberal cabinet minister. With David Anderson's retirement, Victoria is ripe for a NDP pick-up.
25 12 05 Chuck
*Mulroney/Liberals - needs to get lawn signs up more quickly - you are definitely falling behind the CPC and NDP for signage. You need to tap into the general feeling here that the NDP and the CPC jumped the gun by forcing the election and you should keep highlighting the economic record of the Liberals which most people are pleased about. Get more literature out showcasing the good but little known work of the Federal government - like the harbour improvement program in Victoria, the Prince Rupert Port, Tourism Commission moving to B.C. etc.
*CPC - your weakness is your leader - Harper - he comes across as way too stiff and serious - the picture of a puritan - not a good image for a conservative politician trying to distance himself from the radical religious right. The good news is you have a good local candidate with Baird. Instead of phoning up asking "if you would support Stephen Harper and the Conservatives" which frankly, cuts little ice - talk about your local candidate. He comes from a well known Victoria family (Dr. Baird the surgeon and Janet Baird the local politician) and has an interesting CV - let's hear more about him and his views and less about Harper.
*Savoie/NDP - don't be overconfident here - yes Monday Mag likes you and there is a perception that you are the frontrunner among the pundits and left wing activists but Victoria is not as left wing as some people are inclined to think. It may be true that downtown Victoria and the surrounding areas are a bunch of granolas but that is not true with much of the rest of the riding. There are areas (not JUST in Oak Bay) that are a little scared of the NDP. You need to reassure these people that the NDP is not gunning for their wallet. Also, tap into the feeling around here that Anderson was not treated that well by the Martin people and you might take some of the Liberal vote back.
*Greens - I see they are polling lower this time with much of their vote in B.C. apparently going to the Liberals and NDP. You need to hammer at the fact that the other parties are not enviro friendly - the CPC opposed Kyoto, the NDP is too closely associated with big unions in the resource sector, the Liberals have a Canfor executive as the senior minister from BC etc. etc.
All in all - everyone has their work cut out for them in this tight race that could go anywhere.
21 12 05 Rick S
I have to disagree here with all these libs posting that David M will take this riding.
As someone who actually lives in the riding, David and the liberals are running an invisible campaign with little exposure.
They are probably hoping the national campaign and the loyal David Anderson vote will put them over the top.
It's not going to happen.
This riding will be a 3.5 way race. The libs, ndp and tories will all get between 25-35% with a significant green vote of at least 10%.
Given David M's lack lusture campaign and carpet bagger status he will come in 3rd. The NDP is the favourite here but the Tories could take it if the vote split workers in their favour and the national campaign suggests a tory minority.
20 12 05 Victorian Political Junkie
Here is why Victoria will go NDP on Jan. 23....
1. Denise Savoie is an excellent candidate, a very popular two-term city councillor. She is certainly more credible and well known than David Turner was.
2. David Anderson is no longer running for the Liberals, who won largely on personal popularity. Instead, the Liberals are running David Mulroney. Mulroney ran in Saanich-Gulf Islands in 2004 and made little impact. With Anderson not running, a lot of his vote from 2004 will go NDP and Green. And only 1200 Liberal votes have to go elsewhere for the NDP to win.
3. The Conservatives are a non-entity in Victoria. They have no presence here and Victoria is a left-wing town. Yes, maybe the Tories will do alright in Oak Bay, but that's it. All the predictions about this being an NDP-Conservative battle are ill-conceived.
4. The NDP has by far the most visble campaign right now, and the most impressive organization. Also, this riding is on the NDP's target list, and Jack Layton attended a rally here in early December that featured at least 250 NDP loyalists. David Mulroney's campaign office opening, on the other hand, featured a small collection of UVic Young Liberals.
5. The Greens will get votes here, but not enough to win. They will be fighting for third place with the Tories, nothing more. Yes, Green candidate Sonya Chandler was elected to Victoria City Council in November, but she was only seventh place for a eight member council and gained a lot of votes because she was regarded as more left-wing than some VCE candidates. The same cannot be said about Denise Savoie, who has a very progressive and green track record. Indeed, the Conservation Voters of BC has recently endorsed her for MP, and this will certainly boost her fortunes.
6. Ask anyone in greater Victoria, and they will tell you that they think the NDP will win. According to Monday Magazine (Dec. 8, 2005), both local observers and other candidates concede that this is Denise Savoie's race to lose.
All of these factors will contribute to an NDP victory in Victoria on Jan. 23. THe question is by how much?
20 12 05
Agree with Cornpop - the likelihood of the CPC winning this riding are about as good as a snowball's chance in hell. He is quite right that NOT ONE of the 200+ polling stations here voted CPC in the last election! Consider that a number of those polls included areas such as Uplands - a super rich, elite, manicured ghetto of rich right wing executives and old grey folks literally swimming in money behind tall iron gates and mature shrubbery. If the CPC couldn't even win one poll in the most blue Tory area, the Uplands, how do they think they can win the riding??? It simply isn't going to happen. NDP or Liberal victory with the edge to the Liberals.
19 12 05 Brad
Victoria is essentially a two-horse race. Denise Savoie has history behind her, having been a councillor for the City of Victoria. She's known to Victoria voters, and they haven't had difficulty in voting her into office. David Mulroney hops from riding to riding and isn't really known very well. And his name might cause a few less votes for him (vote for a Mulroney? never!).
This one will go to Denise Savoie and the NDP.
19 12 05 Jason H.
As in previous elections, the majority of postings predict an NDP victory. It is premature to assume that and last time this board was dead wrong when it predicted the NDP would take this seat. The riding was only briefly NDP prior to Anderson's three terms as the MP for Victoria. The seat only went NDP prior to that because of opposition to Brian Mulroney and the NDP was seen as the best vehicle to stop the hated Mulroney Tories. This time, the Liberals are seen as the best vehicle to stop the dreaded Harper Tories. It is also not true that the entire riding is made up of granola eating NDP/socialists - it is far more diverse than that.
18 12 05 watcher
David Anderson took a lot of soft Green votes, but usually, soft Green votes are more likely to go NDP instead of Liberal. With no David Anderson this time around, the NDP and Green are likely to gain. Whether these soft Green-ish Anderson votes will end up in Green or NDP hands is likely to become a key issue in this riding. If the NDP wants to win this riding, they'll have to hammer Ariel Lade as hard as they hammer the Liberals or Conservatives.
Oh and also, I'm one of those people who refuse to write Robin Baird off. For some reason that I cannot yet understand, many people around these parts place Robin Baird at higher esteem than incumbent Conservative MPs on Vancouver Island. While I'm not entirely certain how this guy will perform in terms of pulling votes away from his rivals, he will almost certainly make this riding as winnable for the Conservatives as it is for the Liberals and NDP. This is a real three-way race in the making.
18 12 05 Cornpop
I am going to have to give this riding to the Liberals. David Mulroney is a former Liberal candidate in Saanich, and came pretty close to Gary Lunn last time. The Conservatives didn't even win one of the 210 polls in this riding last election... which means that for them to win this is as likely as a meteor striking Canada. The NDP will put up a strong fight here, but seeing as Mulroney is not an incumbent and is also a fresh face for the Liberals in a riding that liked the last Liberal, it should stay Red.
15 12 05 Analyst
I wouldn't be so quick to predict an NDP victory here. This board has predicted an NDP victory before only to have the Liberals beat a strong NDP candidate (I've viewed them). In the 1/3 of the riding that is the Eastern section - all of Oak Bay and the part of Saanich between UVic and the ocean - the residents tend to vote massively for the party that will best stop the NDP from winning - this explains the 3-2, 2-1, 3-1 and even 4-1 margins of the Liberal votes swamping the NDP vote found in polling stations starting at South Oak Bay up to 10 Mile Point. In the rest of the riding in places such as James Bay and Fernwood, the NDP is popular but a lot of left leaning voters tend to vote Liberal - not to stop the NDP but to stop the CPC's from winning - the liberal vote in these places is about even or only slightly less than the NDP. Take the massive anti-NDP vote going to the liberals in the affluent sections and add the strong anti-CPC vote also going to the Liberals in the rest of the riding and you have a Liberal victory time and again. The CPC's are not in the running I have to agree -they have not done well even though they (and the Alliance before) ran very moderate red/blue "Tory" candidates in previous elections. I should add that the more conservative parts of town here are not conservative in the Republican/Alberta/Bible Thumping sense but in the urban, elite, old PC sense - while they don't want inheritance taxes, they also listen to the CBC and tend to have environmentalist tendencies.
18 12 05 Victor A.
Despite losing a bit of ground in the BC polls, especially to the Liberals, I do believe Denise Savoie won't have any major difficulty winning this one. It won't be as close as some people predict, she could win with as much as 3000 to 4000 votes ahead of the Liberal candidate, Mr Mulroney. Now that David Anderson retired and after the BC provincial elections when the NDP did better than expected in this area of the Island, I strongly believe that Savoie is the favorite and has the momentum on her side. I actually also believe the Liberal candidate is an articulate and honest man but I just don't think it'll cut it in this part of the Island, especially against a popular and well-known ex-councillor.
13 12 05 g-mack
Ariel Lade is a very strong candidate, and he should pick up liberal votes this time around with David Anderson, an environmentally minded liberal, out of the picture. It's also worth noting that Victoria elected green party member Sonya Chandler was recently elected to council, proving there is strong Green support in the area.
13 12 05 M. Lunn
Lets forget about the idea of the Tories somehow winning this since it isn't going to happen. This will be between the Liberals and NDP. The only part of the riding that leans somewhat to the right is Oak Bay, but this area like most urban areas may have been comfortable with the old PCs and still is with the BC Liberals, but won't go for Harper's Republican style conservatism. Even with a more moderate leader, they would need a perfect three way split to win this is about 2/3 of the riding will never vote for a right wing party no matter how moderate. Robin Baird is indeed a moderate candidate, but so was Logan Wenham last time and he lost badly.
13 12 05 Mark R.
The Conservatives will not win in Victoria. This is a race between the NDP and Liberals. Ms. Savoie is well known and is running with a great deal of resources. This riding was briefly NDP before David Anderson ran again federally. Unless the NDP's numbers tank below 20% in BC, this riding will be NDP on January 23.
13 12 05 m0nkyman
I'd like to predict a CPC victory, but it isn't going to happen. Denise Savoie has good name recognition, and a good organization. Without David Anderson, the Liberals may well fall to third place, but second place is definitely the only fight.
12 12 05
The Liberals will hold onto this seat. I say this because a prior post is absolutely correct - the many red Tories in Victoria do not vote CPC but Liberal - especially Paul Martin Liberal. These same red tories (quite liberal in many ways but wealthy) do not like the NDP and will vote to stop them. At the same time, many provincial NDPers are not all that hostile to the Federal Liberals - especially if the choice is a CPC government and they will vote to stop the CPC from forming government. This riding is very complicated socioeconomically - far more complicated than say some of the ridings on the northern part of the Island that tend to swing between NDP and CPC/Reform - protest votes etc. etc. You have a mix of students, government employees both union and management, pensioners and most of the wealthiest households on the Island. This riding has been represented in the past by Tories (not the Reform/Alliance), the NDP, and the Liberals so it is volatile.
12 12 05 SDC
Surprise. January 24th will bring a surprise to the NDP when Robin Baird is elected in this riding. He is a credible candidate and has a significant boost in name recognition in the riding from the many years his Mom, Janet Baird represented Oak Bay on Victoria City Council. Baird is a Tory, in the Progressive sense and this will help also in the areas outside Oak Bay.
Denise Savoie is also a credible candidate and will be buoyed by a general increase in the NDP fortunes in BC and the Island in particular. This will not however offset two problems for her:
1- The Green Party will pull from her potential bank of supporters. Lade is running again and will better the 2004 results which were already respectable;
2- The Liberal candidate is not as strong as is needed for the NDP to win. Soft Liberal votes in Victoria will swerve more to the Tories in January.
Normally this would be an NDP gain but the presence of a very respectable Conservative, with Cabinet potential, and the lack of a strong Liberal do not bode well for Savoie.
12 12 05 Age of Sages
There seems to be a huge buzz going around here about the Green candidate Ariel Lade. He's in all the media and everyone I talk to seems to like this economist who's running in this riding for the second time. The attention the party is recieving due to their exclusion from the leaders debate has local residents up in arms, and Mr. Lade is espousing the idea of an "Independant Green Representative in parliament" which is resonating with the local electorate after seeing the impact Chuck Cadman had for Surrey North.
As for the competition, the Conservatives have no chance here. Their candidate has not been seen by anyone yet and no one much cares for the conservative here anyhow. The Liberal candidate David Mulroney is already taking heat for his connections to Liberal money due to his federal contracts in his legal practice. He lost in the Saanich riding last time around and doesn't seem to have anything going for him this time either.
That leaves only NDP candidate Denise Savoie to compete with the Greens for this seat. A former city councillor, she is well known in the city and is doing her best to paint herself in Green colours. She is a strong candidate for the NDP and has a very good chance of taking this seat.
What should decide this riding is the youth vote. If the youth come out in large numbers to vote the Greens win, if not, the seat goes NDP.
With Elections Canada doing an admirable job of trying to get the youth out to vote this election, I see the Green Party squeezing out a very narrow win.
05 12 05 MF
Oldtimer, most Red Tories now vote for the Liberals. Victoria is one of the places where they may have been competitive in the past, but are certainly not today. The party under Harper has veered to far to the right, esp. on socially issues. This does not play well in a university town like Victoria. Not to mention that the Reform Party/Canadian Alliance never won a seat here and their numbers were higher than the Tories in BC today. The national Tory campaign will undercut any social liberalism locally. I think it's most likely to go NDP, but I wouldn't count out the Liberals either.
05 12 05 Vic Resident
Victoria gets much more interesting as a riding.
Denise Savoie has come out the gate weak and looking petty for her attacks on the Greens. I think she will be able to hold most but not all of Turner's vote - 30% for her.
The Conservative Robin Baird has come out confident and centerist (he is for same sex marriage) - he looks like he should be the MP for Victoria and he is getting a lot of positive support from former Liberals and from the people living in Oak Bay and up by UVic. If the Conservatives are government, this guy will be in cabinet. He will bring the Conservatives back to about 30%
The Liberal is running, but no one seems interested in considering him as an option. 20% will be good for him, 15% is possible
Meanwhile the Green, Ariel Lade, has an actual campaign team, money, signs and a feeling that winning is not impossible. In the recent municipal elections in Victoria the Greens did much better than anyone thought possible, this same campaign team is now on board for Lade. He will improve from the just under 12% last time. The Greens are running about 50% higher in the polls this time in BC than in 2004. Look for him to break 20% and be looking at 25% if the Liberals really collapse
02 12 05 Oldtimer in Victoria
Victoria has been on the centre right federally many, many times in the past. The riding inculdes Oak Bay and Ten Mile Point - not good NDP territory.
The Conservatives have the most electable candidate running in Robin Baird. There is nothing scary about him, a fiscal conservative and social liberal that supports gay marriage. Fluent in French, studied international law, and is a crown prosecutor.
01 12 05 kayo
This close race in the last election saw a popular Liberal incumbent beat out a relatively unknown NDP candidate. With the NdP polling the highest they have in years, coupled with the fact that Mulroney has no political experience and Savoie does, I think this is a no brainer. Look for a solid block of NDP support in the Southern Island.
01 12 05 Resident
Time and time again we're told that Victoria is an NDP city. Well yes and no is the correct answer. The P.C.'s with Allan McKinnon held the Victoria (this is really Victoria centre) for a long time. David Anderson was elected here at least three times in a row for the Liberals. It is an oversimplification to say this will be an easy NDP victory. Further. as stated in a prior post it is correct to observe that a good chunk of the federal riding consists of provincial liberal regions (a more right wing party than the PM liberals). I would agree, though, that the Conservatives are too right wing for even the most conservative residents of this riding. A PC style conservative party could win here with the right candidate but not running for the Harper conservatives . . . so what we have is a two way race between the Liberals and NDP - unfortunate to some degree because the Conservative candidate Baird is quite good (as was true last time with Mr. Hallsor). I do not give the NDP necessarily the edge. Yes there are lots of provincial civil servants here but keep in mind this is not a provincial election. There are lots of hippie and student types, too. There are also lots of wealthy areas in Vic riding, too who don't care at all for the NDP and their "soak the rich" talk: take a drive from the southernmost part of the riding in Rockland/Fairfield near Downtown then through Oak Bay, through Uplands and ending at the northernmost part of the riding in Ten Mile Point and Queenswood and see what I mean.
30 11 05 Victoria Student
With David Anderson out of the picture this seat is a safe NDP grab. The liberals have chosen a no-name with a very unfortunate name (Mulroney) who will not be elected and Victoria is too left to elect a Tory. Many voters, including myself, voted liberal last time in fear of a Stephen Harper victory. However, most of us understand there is a slim chance that will ever happen and people will return to traditional voting lines. The liberals cannot bank on the popularity of David Anderson and the BC provincial election, fresh in the mind of voters, will only favour the new democrats. Recent polls show Savoie with huge gains that will take a lot of work by the liberals/Tories/Greens to pull votes from. Victoria will be sending Ms. Savoie to Ottawa this coming January.
30 11 05 Andrew
Although close, I don't see West Vancouver voting anything but Conservative, it hasn't voted anything but conservative parties in for years.
I do think the Sunshine Coast will make it an interesting Liberal-Conservative race though.
29 11 05
I'm going to say that the Liberals will hold on to this riding but narrowly and much closer than the last time around. I say this because the riding is not homogeneous. The NDP parts of town are balanced out by the Liberal wealthy parts of town and this riding contains by far, clearly the wealthiest part of Vancouver Island (pretty much the entire eastern part of this riding) which comprises much of the provincial Oak Bay - Gordon Head riding which is turning into a Provincial liberal bastion. The more right wing leaning people here do not generally vote Conservative (maybe PC) but Liberal. Paul Martin is not that unpopular around these parts.
27 11 05 Bear and Ape
This is definitely a race between the Liberals and the NDP. Anderson's popularity was enough to keep him in power, despite many (including our own) predictions of his downfall. He is now out of the running and with poll numbers as they are, we expect an interesting race. Key thing to watch; if Liberal numbers tank in BC (as they usally do) in the course of the election, the expect an NDP pick up.
18 11 05 J L
Victoria went solidly NDP in the last BC provincial election, and now with Dave Anderson not in the equation the NDP should pick this up. DA seems to have done a good job for Victoria, but without him, I can't see the Libs making any inroads here (i.e. not likely to pick up any more votes, just losing them) NDP pick up.
01 10 05 M. Lunn
It is true David Anderson had a certain amount of popularity and he was generally to the left of the party, so had he not run last time, the NDP may have very well taken this riding. But a few things have changed since. The Conservatives have fallen through the floor in British Columbia while the liberals have gone up a lot and the NDP has remained flatlined. That means the NDP will need to get an even greater share of the popular vote to take this one as some of the Conservative supporters move over to the liberals. Still too close to call.
09 07 05 RP.
Huh, I was just ready to put down another Liberal prediction when I saw that Anderson wasn't running again. Funny. Given how hard fought it was last time, and the number of factors that Anderson had on his side that whomever replaces him won't, the field is blown open here. I'm leaning NDP on this one.
27 06 05 Pundit
The NDP choose greenish Victoria City Councilor Denise Savoie to run. She handily won over David Turner and Laura Acton.
Vote was
Savoie 227
Turner 85
Action 78
Last time it was a very tight battle that Turner won - I presume all three candidates suffered due the fact that no one really signed up large numbers.
Savoie has much of the team new NDP provincial team behind her - this should help federally.
The Greens will remain a factor - Ariel Lade is an LSE trained economist that is anything but flakey - he may lose left green vote, but I am certain he will continue to play well to the centre and centre right in the riding.
The loss of David Anderson as the candidate opens the field. Anderson took a lot of soft green vote in many elections. Lade and Savoie will fight it out for it.
Meanwhile the CPC has he very presentable Robin Baird at their candidate - fluent in French and Sorbonne trained in international law. He cannot be counted out and should finish with at least a strong second place.
Meanwhile the Liberals were reduced to nominating David Mulroney (no relation). The Liberals are completely out of the race and could come fourth in this riding.
NDP - Savoie 35%
CPC - Baird 28%
Green - Lade 20%
Liberal - Mulroney 17%
15 06 05 hatman
The NDP came really close here in 2004, and with Anderson out of it now, Victoria is a sure bet to go Orange for the NDP. Victoria went NDP in most areas provincially, and it is regarded as a very left wing region. The NDP cant possible lose this seat with higher numbers. The NDP has only won once here federally, but that just means they're due.
07 06 05 Mike D
To his credit, Anderson won against the odds and delivered a crucial seat for the Liberals...and look how they thanked him. Think about Herb Grey and what happened in Windsor. Voters don't forget when their local favourite has been undermined and forced into retirement. If one seat switches on the Island, this is it. If a strong CPC runs, all the better for the NDP.
07 06 05
First off, two of the three provincial ridings that are in the federal riding of Victoria were the easiest BC NDP wins in 2005. If there were not enough Conservatives to make the provincial races even close, there are definitely not enough Conservatives to turn Victoria blue. This riding is a fight between the Liberals and the NDP.
The Liberals have a very good chance to keep this riding in the next election. They have nominated David Mulroney, the second place candidate for Sannich North and the Islands from 2004. Mulroney is a strong candidate as well as a left-leaning one, that will make this riding very very interesting in the next election.
01 06 05 M. Lunn
Don't assume the strong NDP showings in Victoria mean the NDP will win federally. Victoria has a lot of provincial civil servants who are angry at the Campbell government, but not necessarily at the Martin government, so many of them will go liberal federally. Also last federal election, Victoria-Beacon Hill and Victoria-Hillside would have both gone NDP had they existed while it was Oak Bay-Gordon Head that put Anderson over the top. If the liberals can get Victoria mayor, Alan Lowe to run, they can win this. The only thing I can say for sure is the Conservatives will not win this riding.
28 05 05 A. Vancouverite
The Conservatives won't win, they could however play a spoiler role drawing right-wing voters away from the Liberals. The Greens aren't going to win this riding, or even be a threat to do so. Arial Lade doesn't really have the resume to appeal to NDP leaning folks. That being said they could pick up support from across the board, including normally NDP leaning folks, people who are sad to see Anderson gone, and Red Tories. I suspect the NDP will pick this riding up though, they won the two Victoria seats by a landslide, and put in a strong showing in Oak Bay. And while it's true that not all people who vote NDP provincially vote NDP federally, it's likely the NDP should be able to hold enough of those people to finish with around 35-40% of the vote...and with the Conservatives bound to finish with around 20%, and the Greens with around 5-10%, the NDP should pick this up from the Liberals. Also let's not forget how personally popular Anderson was.
18 05 05 Bear and Ape
With Anderson stopping to smell the roses, this riding is going to be wide open and the NDP are most likely to take it. Aside from looking at the last elections results, Liberal votes are going to bleed away and are likely to split between the NDP and Conservatives (depending on the polling station) with the NDP taking more of the votes.
16 05 05
NDP, for reasons already mentioned. With the drop in Liberal support and Anderson out of the picture this one will easily go back to the NDP barring some unforseen event.
13 05 05 watching Victoria
There were only about 4,000 votes between David Anderson and David Turner, and Anderson has already said he won't run again. I think Turner stands a good chance of beating a non-incumbent Liberal, and I certainly don't think the Conservative numbers will improve very much over last year's results.
13 05 05 Pundit
Victoria is not an NDP city - they held the riding once and once only (John Brewin 1988 - 1993)
Before 1988 it has held by moderate Conservatives, people like Jack Mclintock, the likely nominee for the CPC, but the challenger is Robin Baird and also of that nice and moderate conservative strain - nothing scary and far right wing
The Greens have a chance in this riding because in a four way race, the winner will win with as little as 30% and this is achievable here.
The Liberals still do not have a single serious warm body wanting to run.
The NDP do not have any serious moderates willing to put forward their name - only a very centrist New Democrat can win here.
11 05 05 punditman
With Anderson out of the picture, the Liberals are too, because it was his personal popularity that kept this riding Liberal. Oak Bay/Uplands will most likely go Conservative, due to a high population of upper-middle class plus it is right-of-centre (provincially, the Liberals have held it since 1996). However, with two universities in that area, that part of the region should also have a high NDP vote. The rest of the riding, though, will be a strong NDP. Because it is so left-of-centre, the Conservatives will finish a distant third in that region. The tiebreaker is how each party does in the area of the riding WON'T win. Since the university students may keep the NDP afloat in Oak Bay, combined with the fact the Conservatives have no chance of taking the Victoria area, it will be an NDP win here.
10 05 05 Observer
With Anderson gone, this riding is too close to call. I don't accept the one commenter's conclusion that Victoria is an NDP riding. But for the one term of John Brewer in the 1988 election (who was preceeded by tory Allan McKinnon who held the riding for 16 years), this constituency has always been traded between the tories and the grits. That does not mean to say the NDP can't win here, it's just a broad generalization to say this is a natural NDP seat.
08 05 05 P. Kelly
Victoria is an NDP city. It was held since 1993 by David Anderson because he was personally popular. David leaves politics, so Victoria votes NDP.
08 05 05 DL
Two points of information: David Anderson is retiring and right awa that will knock thousands of votes off the Liberal total. Russ Courtnall has announced he will NOT run.
The NDP came very close against Anderson last time and will probably sweep the Victoria area in the provincial election next week. It all adds up to an easy NDP pick-up.
07 05 05 Aric H
Actually David Anderson announced last week that he is retiring and will not be running again, so there will not be a Liberal incumbency advantage meaning that it will be close again between the Liberals and the NDP, with the Green Party possibly being a spoiler for the NDP again like it was last year. Right now I will give a slight edge to the NDP unless its numbers go down in BC.
07 05 05 punditman
Look for this riding to be a three-way dogfight. We have Liberal incumbent David Anderson running against (most likely) NDP David Turner, and possibly Russ Courtnall as the Conservative candidate. The metro Victoria area will mostly vote NDP due to a heavy union vote in that area, with the Liberals a distant second. Oak Bay will either vote Liberal or Conservative. On one side, David Anderson has a lot of support among Oak Bay voters. On the other side, Russ Courtnall lives in the area and is very popular among constituents. Plus, he is considered a star candidate in this election. Who wins here is anyone's guess.
05 05 05 BrianJA
With Victoria-Beacon Hill and Victoria-Hillside likely to be won by BCNDP candidates, one of whom is the BCNDP leader, Victoria is an NDP slamdunk if they want it. It's not going to be a cakewalk, though, but if they get a decent candidate and get him out knocking on doors, the NDP will likely be sending an MP back to Ottawa representing this riding. Dave Anderson has a lot of years of service, but he just squeaked by last time around and he can see the writing on the wall. My prediction: NDP pickup with 1000-1500 votes difference.
04 05 05 JC
Actually, Russ Courtnall is running for the CPC. But the NDP will take this by default.
04 05 05 BLJ
2004 Results: Liberal - 35%, NDP - 31%, CPC - 22%, Green - 12%. The NDP has only won this riding once, 1988, when their B.C. federal vote was at an all time high. That said, it will probably all come down to the quality of the candidates selected as well as polling trends to determine whether this will be a Liberal hold or NDP pick-up.
03 05 05 M. Lunn
The Conservatives definitely won't win this, but it won't necessarily go NDP. Alan Lowe, the current Victoria Mayor is considering running for the liberals so they may pull this off again. Also provincially, the NDP is only strong in Victoria; Oak Bay and Gordon Head are wealthier areas that likely won't go NDP federally or provincially. Besides many who vote NDP provincially vote liberal federally.
02 05 05 JC
With David Anderson gone there is no way the Liberals can win this riding unless they roll out a strong candidate. People in Victoria do not like Conservatives as they will likely be electing Carole James in the upcoming BC election. The NDP will win this seat.
02 05 05 Pundit
This riding is going to be very interesting to watch
Ariel Lade is making a comeback for the Greens - and he has been very favourably recieved.
Looks like Jack Mclintock for the CPC - the strongest rightwing candidate in many years, many years
David Turner is threatening to go again.......
And the Liberals have not a single warm body that wants the job

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