2:24 AM 19/01/2006

Prediction Changed
1:38 AM 22/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Anne Jamieson
John Weston
Blair Wilson
Judith Wilson
Silvaine Zimmermann

John Reynolds

2004 Result:
John Reynolds
Blair Wilson
Nicholas Simons
Andrea Goldsmith
Marc Bombois
Anne Jamieson

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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18 01 06 MB
This capital gains tax exemption is going to have this riding very happy!
13 01 06
I had originally called this one for the Liberals but now I am not so sure.
The Liberals originally had the momentum in BC but now it seems to be shifting to the CPC. Given that result I think it is more likely than not that the CPC will hold onto this seat. The recent CPC capital gains tax rollover idea will sell extremely well here by the way.
13 01 06 squishy
This one would have been a likely Liberal switch, with Blair Wilson essentially having incumbent's advantage with John Reynolds' departure and Wilson's high profile (including visits from several ministers and Paul Martin to the riding). I agree with others who have said that the Liberals will also gain from a lower-profile NDP candidate in Judith Wilson, especially on the Sunshine Coast and in Powell River. But the disastrous national Liberal campaign and the very smart (and quiet) Conservative effort is going to swing West Van back solidly to its traditional Tory roots and with it, the riding. Unless Weston completely flips out in the next 12 days, he's probably got this one.
11 01 06 Fabian B
This is a large and complicated riding for one to dissect. You have several important cities such as Sechelt, Pender Harbour, Powell River and Gibsons, and Whistler which all tend to support competing candidates. That being said, if recent polls in BC are corrrect, there has been a small uptick in BC support for the CPC from 30% at the start of the election to 37% or even 40% in one Strategic Council poll. So, they are at least matching their 36.7% electoral support in 2004. I would say that John Weston's team now has a better than even chance of retaining the riding for the Conservatives against Liberal Blair Wilson.
11 01 06 Gregor Burton
I believe that the individual who proposes that there is a "sleeper" Conservative vote, that was unmotivated to vote for the incumbent, Reynolds, is mistaken. Voter turnout in this riding was 64.6 - higher than both the Provincial and National averages. This does not indicate an unparticipative portent of the population.
Let us face it. John Weston is an Evangelical Christian, with views that will not sit well with voters here. He does not have the 30 years of name-recongintion, or respect, that John Reynolds has. The Liberals will benefit from this. They will also benefit from the relative "nobody," Judith Wilson, running for the NDP. Former Social Worker, Nicholas Simmons (who has since been elected to serve Powell River in the Provincial Legislature) had a great deal of charsima and personal appeal. Judith Wilson, on the other hand, is just another lawyer. She will only benefit from voters who are two ignorant to realize there are two "Wilson's" running in this riding.
06 01 06 Steve G
What "my two cents" has said has much merit. It is certainly true that Liberal voters (and perhaps NDP voters) will come out in force and vote strategically now that they know this riding is no longer a Conservative stronghold. But there's a flip side to this story. Due to John Reynolds' popularity and the whopping majority he won here in 2000, it could be argued that Conservative voters became complacent and many stayed home on election day in 2004, thinking this riding was a lock for them. The reults no doubt provided a jolt, and you can bet that the Conservative troops in this riding are taking no chances this time. I would agree that the Liberals have the edge here, but considering the sagging Liberal campaign nationally and particularly in BC (where all polls are showing a Tory spike), an outright prediction here is premature in my opinion.
05 01 06 D. Ray
A lot of misleading information here. Reynolds won in Powell River last time?
Not even close. Reynolds won in Sechelt and Pender Harbour, but the NDP won Powell River and Gibsons, and therefore the Powell River-Sunshine Coast portion of the riding overall. But the NDP got trounced in West Van, Liberals got trounced in PR-SC -- so Reynolds' 2nd-place showing in both areas got him in.
The Greens are "strong" on the Sunshine Coast?
I don't have the figures in front of me, but I could've sworn they got far more votes in West Van and Whistler last time than on the Coast, and that was even with a candidate from Gibsons! The Greens won't be a factor in Powell River-SC.
Weston a moderate?
Maybe he is for all I know (for a Conservative, that is?), but that's not the impression out there. He's made a big mistake in that, unlike the US, most of Canada and certainly this riding passionately supports the idea of Church being separated from State. Whether Weston is an extreme fundamentalist or not, he's certainly made his active Christianity very public in his campaign, which will sink him. I have respect for any person's faith, but again, like most Canadians I feel there needs to be a clear line between Church and State, and by making his views part of his campaign Weston has crossed that line. This isn't the US, not even the Fraser Valley...
Finally, "whoever takes West Van will win"??
This certainly wasn't the case last time! On the contrary, I think it's more possible that just like last time, the Lib-vs.-Con West Van vote will be close enough that they'll basically cancel each other out, leaving the riding once again to whoever PR-SC's second-favourite pick after the NDP is.
Weston's status as a Harvard-educated West Van lawyer will not play well in PR-SC. This area's attraction to Reform/Alliance was based mainly on that organization's grassroots populist appeal, which clearly hasn't carried over to today's Conservatives when they've nominated a Harvard/West Van lawyer who thinks showing off his Jag is a good campaign strategy. Reynolds had some populist appeal, and the NDP's Nicholas Simons had it in droves last time around. Some of this substantial populist vote will stick with the NDP, but with no candidates this time around having the same grassroots appeal as Simons OR Reynolds, many of these votes are up for grabs and my bet is that because he's visibly been working so hard in PR-SC (way harder than last year, when he was invisible here--a mistake he's addressing), Blair Wilson is going to get enough to take the riding. Perhaps more importantly, it seems very unlikely that he'll lose any ground in West Van. Why would he? People are more uncomfortable with Weston's "fundamentalism" than they are with shady Liberal fundraising tactics in Quebec (sure, all the true-blue Tories who voted Reynolds anyway are probably still mad as hell, but these days it's a forgotten issue for most BC voters -- even when Gomery did hit, it hit far from home for us).
I predict Blair Wilson will make moderate gains in both West Van and PR-SC -- they may only take him from a weak third in PR-SC to a strong third, but it'll be enough to give him the win this time.
05 01 06 Peter Jack
Weston is a good candidate with a good team. They have signs all over the riding and seem to have lots of volunteers. Of course it will be a tough fight, but Weston will win. He can appeal to all parts of the riding, as a mandarin-speaking lawyer in West Van, as an athlete and someone who loves the outdoors in other parts of the riding. During the summer he biked to Powell River meeting people all the way. This is pretty innovative and breaks the mould of a West Van Lawyer (or West Van Accountant - like Wilson). Weston will do well in West Van and win back votes lost to the NDP on the Sunshine Coast. Weston by five points (say 3000 votes).
04 01 06 my two cents
I don't know... there will have to be an awful lot of vote-splitting for the Conservatives to win this riding. If you recall, last election it was MUCH closer than anyone expected, with the CBC actually declaring the riding a Liberal win at one point on election night. In truth, the CPC lost this riding last election, it was their candidate who retained it. Sure, he was the incumbent, but it was Reynolds' three decades of name recognition as a federal and provincial politician that secured a win for him in 2004. Without it, the Conservatives are in tough. Factor in their sagging popularity on the West Coast and the increased likelihood of strategic voting, now that voters know the seat is winnable by the Liberals
03 01 06 A Vancouverite
This has gone traditionally to the right wing party historically, making this a Conservative stronghold. Reasons why Blair Wilson did as well as he did:
1) John Reynolds only campaign in his riding for 6 days! He was busy campaigning on the national tour.
2) Conservative voters got complacent. I mean, this riding has been voting Conservative over and over again.
3) Conservative campaign lost momentum during the last few weeks.
4) Wilson's "new voice" type image made him very attractive and appealing to the constituents here.
Why John Weston will win:
1) He is using the fifty something days of the campaign in THIS riding.
2) Conservative knew last time was a close shave- at one point it was declared Blair Wilson won! They'll be out in their regular numbers.
3) Conservative momentum has been picking speed. Liberal campaign seems rather stagnant... but maybe they'll pull out a few desperate tricks and fear tactics on the last few days of campaigning as happened last election.
4) John Reynolds is gone. Now the Conservatives have "new voice" candidate against Liberal "new voice" candidate so this makes it an even playing field. Traditional Tory voters who voted Blair last time might switch back to the Tories because they've nominated someone new.
5) Weston has a stronger profile as a lawyer, public speaker, businessman, and article writer. He is also trilingual.
This is going to be close, but John Weston will win.
26 12 05 jonforest
Last time it was Con (35.3%), Lib (32.5%), NDP (21.7%), Green (9.7%). What's different this time? First, Reynolds' advantage as incumbant is gone; second, the Liberals are up in BC and the Conservatives are down. The Iranian vote will be (pace the previous poster), nugatory.
25 12 05 David
A narrow Conservative win with half the WestVancouver vote and some of the island coast vote goin to Weston,Liberals do well in WestVan and Whistler/Squamish while NDP and Greens on the island.
CON 42%
LIB 36%
NDP 16%
22 12 05 Ben
I think the Liberals will pick up a seat here so long as Blair Wilson concentrates on the Sunshine Coast part of the riding. The NDP won many of the Sunshine Coast polls last election the Liberals could pick up a lot of votes if Wilson can show that he isn't just a downtown business hack.
20 12 05 David H.
Wealthy people are not naturally conservative at all. In fact, just about every poll indicates that the Liberals' strongest demographic is among people with incomes over $100,000. In this riding, the Liberals will probably win since the well-known Reynolds is gone and the Tories remain down in the B.C. polls from their 2004 election results.
08 12 05 Laurence Putnam
Tonight, this riding went back into play.
While I earlier would have been leaning on giving this to Wilson, tonight's leak of a proposed ban on handguns is going to have an impact on the 60% of this riding which can be considered rural. Gun owners, already suspicious of the Liberals, will have good reason to come out and vote Conservative up coast - we're talking about the same polls that let John Reynolds hang on in 2004. The many blue-collar workers of Squamish and Powell River who might have been enticed to vote NDP without this being an issue will be suspicious of the Liberals after his leak, however quick they may be in watering it down or retracting it.
05 12 05 quasar
Balir Wilson vs. John Weston... this will be a pretty interesting race to watch. However, I think I'll have to predict a Conservative win here. The Tories rebounding in the polls in BC means that the Tories are holding their ground- and they aren't ready to let this go. This riding will be heavily targeted by the Tories, and I think last time round, Tory voters got a bit complacent and didn't head to the polls. This is a traditional Tory riding, and with the close results last time, it will likely motivate its Tory voters to vote. While I must say Blair Wilson ran a pretty good campaign here and is probably the more charismatic candidate, John Weston has a stronger profile. THis will be a close race, but John Weston will win.
04 12 05 Charles
I am going to predict a Liberal win here. Martin's dividend tax cut will go down very well with the many residents here who live off of investment income. It says that the Liberals are looking out for the rich! As well, the Libs have been dumping lots of money in B.C. i.e. the convention centre, Canada Line, port expansion etc. etc. The business elite here is happy with all that and will swing round to the establishment party.
01 12 05 Tommie
Extremely wealthy people are naturally conservative. So you would think BC's wealthiest riding would vote for the Conservative Party. However, we must not forget that this is BC. West coast wealthy people are not too keen on social conservatism. Thus, I would expect them to turn to the Liberal Party as the safest way to maintain the status quo. West coast wealthy likes the status quo (Liberals), it doesn't like socialism (the NDP) and it doesn't like whacko wealthy people from Alberta (the Conservatives.)
29 11 05 Laurence Putnam
Still early days, and thus this is still a very early prediction...but I"m giving this one to the Liberals. The populist split between the NDP and the Conservatives in the northern half of this riding combined with Blair Wilson's likely impending domination of the southern half (West Vancouver - which he won last time) tell me this will go Liberal. Incidentally, the election was called today, and Wilson's got his signs out there. He's organized and he wants it.
29 11 05 M. Lunn
Due to the Conservative rebound in BC, I am moving this to too close to call since I am no longer certain the Liberals will win it, although I have had to bet on who would win this riding, I would still bet on the Liberals since they almost won last time around. Since then Blair Wilson has been very active in meeting with voters, which is very crucial in a riding as close as this. While most people vote based on the national campaign and the party as opposed to local candidate, about 5-10% vote based on local candidates meaning local candidates can make the difference in close ridings. The choice of a religious fundamentalist John Weston as well as the lack of an incumbent makes a conservative win quite difficult. The NDP will do well on the Sunshine Coast where they will likely come out ahead of the Conservatives and Liberals, but will get clobbered in West Vancouver, which is one of the wealthiest municipalties in Canada.
27 11 05 Gregor Burton
Blair Wilson came within a narrow margin of defeating Reynolds in the last federal election. Reynolds holds this seat on his individual popularity, and not, as some might think, on the platform of his party.
Wilson will most definitely win this riding.
27 11 05 Gregor Burton
John Reynolds has won this riding on popularity for a long time. The Conservatives WILL not win this riding without him - end of story.
Blair Wilson came quite close in 2004, and will most definitely take this seat in 2006.
14 11 05 Marcus
Whereas I do not know how much the Conservatives will win by, I am guessing a Conservative win. There are a few reasons to support this statement. First, John Weston is a moderate (unlike John Reynolds), and will appeal to weak Liberal voters, absorbing a few hundred votes from Wilson. Second, this riding has not voted Liberal since... who knows when, so this riding has strong Conservative roots. I only see one way Blair Wilson can win this- to suck votes from the NDP and hope for a squeaker win.
15 10 05 Steven Harper
To: watcher 07 10 05
I guess you were not "watching" too closely...Jean Lewis is a "she" not a "he". That probably has more to do with why this particular riding association didn't nominate her. Just thought I'd clear that up.
07 10 05 watcher
All right, I actually took the bother to look through the Conservative nomination transcripts in West Vancouver and I think I have a good understanding why Weston was nominated.
Sadly, I couldn't find anything about Ted Milner.
If Doug Lang is candidate, he will probably fire barrage after barrage of attack ads against Blair Wilson. Because that's his thing. I'm not a fan of Blair Wilson, but I highly doubt this kind of thing will be effective against him.
This leaves Jean Lewis and John Weston. Lewis didn't even talk about West Vancouver proper or Blair Wilson in his candidacy speech, while Weston **gently** noted that the Blair Wilson surprise should not be repeated, and he had plenty to say about West Vancouver. And what exactly is wrong in setting international relations as a policy platform and saying that his travels in Asia and his tri-lingual skills will help him in this regard?
His fundamentalist past notwithstanding, Weston is more articulate than Lewis, and more moderate than Lang, and his campaigning style will probably be optimally moderate. That is not to say that his fundamentalist past can be forgotten now. But I won't put Weston out of the spotlight just yet. He has potential.
27 09 05
Hatman is correct that Libs haven't won there since 1972, but the same was basically true for North Vancouver until 2004, when Lib Don Bell won. The reason the North Shore will change is because the right wing is changing. This area is TRUE BC Liberal, all 4 ridings, including Ralph Sultan's roughly 45-50% margin of victory going BC-Lib. That said this is a fiscally right area, not the Bible Belt and two focus on the family theocons in Weston and next door Cindy Silver will be out of place on the North Shore.
23 09 05 watcher
John Weston is no doubt a religious fundamentalist, and this will, no doubt, hurt him in the election. But he IS, after all, a graduate of the Harvard Business School's Owner/President Management Program, and he can speak with a lot of authority on economic issues. If he keeps playing on this aspect and keep his Christian what-have-yous to himself, he will have a good shot in the affluent West Vancouver. That said, I'm not sure which way he will go once campaigns start. It could be anything, a Conservative landslide, disaster, photo-finish, or anything in between.
27 05 05 JC
After the nomination of John Weston by the Conservatives, this is all but going to the Liberals, Blair Wilson did very well against John Reynolds and with the Liberals in a huge lead in BC. They are poised to pick up seats and this one is going Liberal. People would have voted for Reynolds if he ran again, but a Christian conservative like John Weston will scare off the moderate voters.
20 07 05 M. Lunn
This maybe a fiscally conservative riding, but Stephen Harper's focus on social as opposed to economic issues has made him extremely unpopular in BC, especially in the Lower Mainland. The fact John Reynolds barely won last time around when the Conservatives were polling about 10% higher in BC and the fact the Conservative candidate John Weston is a religious fundamentalist should be enough to hand this to the liberals. If the Conservatives had a more moderate leader and stuck solely to economic policies, they would win this in a landslide just like the provincial liberals did, but they don't seem to understand this is West Vancouver which is fiscally conservative but socially liberal, not your bible belt riding like Abbotsford.
05 07 05 Mike D
If Blair Wilson can give an old warhorse like John Reynolds a good scare, he'll eat a weak Fundamentalist Conservative for breakfast. Watch for strategic voting as some NDPers and Greens rally to prevent Theocratic government. The recent Mustel poll provides even more proof that the Liberals will take this riding by a good margin, over 5000 votes.
15 06 05 hatman
This is tory land, ladies and gentleman. This area hasn’t voted Liberal since 1972.
07 06 05 A. Vancouverite
Just to note the Liberals are often shown to be far ahead in BC before the writ is dropped, they usually fall...and will most likely do so again. Heck back when Chretien was leader they were ahead of the Alliance in a few of the national polls out here...so let's just say that sort of result doesn't last. But I agree with the posters views of the Conservative candidate, far too socially conservative. And that in itself will hurt their chances. Whoever wins this could even win with a smaller plurality than John Reynolds did last year, but regardless of the Liberals chances just went up with the Conservatives so-con candidate.
06 06 05 Craig
John Reynolds is retiring and the Conservatives nominated a hardline social conservative in John Weston who would be a force to be reckoned with in Interior or the Fraser Valley, but this is the coast, where social conservatism is frowned upon, despite the populist tradition here. West Vancouver should be leaning Liberal, while the Sunshine Coast and Sea to Sky Country will be a mix of Conservatives, NDP and Greens. Even with AdScam and other problems, the mixture of circumstances should lead to a rare Liberal pickup. Predicted results: LIB 36%, CPC 27%, NDP 22%, GRN 12%, others 3%.
03 06 05 Aric H
The fact that one of the Conservative party's big guns, and someone with a long political history had a much reduced plurality last year and was even declared defeated at one point on CBC and was apparently only saved by a certain section of the riding, means that this seat has now become surprisingly vulnerable. If the Liberals could almost take out John Reynolds, then it is certainly possible that they could take the seat with the Conservatives losing the incumbency advantage now that Reynolds is retiring. And did he say why he is retiring? Is it because he himself was worried about winning next time?
01 06 05 M. Lunn
I think the liberals will finally take this one since the Conservatives nominated a religious fundamentalist. The Sunshine Coast is generally left-leaning but with the bulk of the population living in West Vancouver, the NDP will get clobbered there just like they did in the past provincial election. The Sunshine Coast went Reform Party for its populist policies, not its right wing policies and most of those have returned to the NDP. However, if the Conservatives stuck only to economic issues, this would be a very safe riding as it was back in the 80s under Mulroney and still is provincially where the liberals piled up massive majorities, 68% in West Vancouver-Capilano.
30 05 05 JL
Blair Wilson doesn't have to campaign to beat Weston. Weston will lose this riding easily. He's ridiculous, he thinks that living in Asia will help him as an MP. Well, sorry John, it's not going to happen. I was at the nomination meeting in WV and let me tell you this, he will get killed!!! If only Doug Lang or Jean Lewis had won, they would make capable candidates.
28 05 05 SFU Observer
I never thought I would see this day come. The Liberals have a legitimate shot at this riding. Whoever takes West Vancouver (and parts of North Vancouver in the riding) takes the riding. The Conservatives no longer have Reynold's wild popularity on the Sunshine coast, so expect that support to spread across the spectrum, especially to the NDP and Greens (it sounds weird, but it will happen). The Liberal's have no support there, but a showing equal to last election in West Vancouver can win this riding. It is quite possible that this riding could produce a plurality victory at about 35%. I'm hedging, as this is a close riding. If poll numbers are to be believed (and many say they aren't) the Liberals are WAY ahead in BC (and rising across the country) and the Conservatives could be as bad as third. If the Liberals stay ahead province wide, this riding is going Liberal. I'm calling it now for the Liberals, but that might change in the next few months.
27 05 05 JC
After the nomination of John Weston by the Conservatives, this is all but going to the Liberals, Blair Wilson did very well against John Reynolds and with the Liberals in a huge lead in BC. they are poised to pick up seats and this one is going Liberal. People would have voted for Reynolds if he ran again, but a christian conservative like John Weston will scare off the moderate voters.
24 05 05 MF
With a religious right figure as the standard bearer, expect the nouveau-riche West Van voters to bolt to the Liberals. The working class towns like Powell River that voted Reform did so because it was populist, not because of ideology. They've return to the NDP. Harper is not much of a populist, but rather a neo-con ideologue, the Newt Gingrich of Canada, not the Ronald Reagan. Greens will do respectably in Whistler, Bowen Island and to a lesser extent West Van.
Prediction: 35% LIB, 31% CON, 25% NDP, 7% GRN, 2% others
22 05 05 EP
The Torries seem to be rolling in the radical social conservatives in BC! John Weston has been nominated as the Tory to replace John Reynolds in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country. Mr. Weston formed what his website calls a "Christian law firm" that has "weekly office devotionals designed to bring us closer to God and one another." This would certainly not be helpful in CPC's goal to soften its far right image.
15 05 05 Dan
I honestly believe that the NDP have a shot here. Many of the Liberal voters in the last election only voted that way to keep the Conservatives out. Obviously that strategy backfired here. I think that if the Liberals lose 25% of their votes to the NDP, and the PC vote drops slightly from the loss of Mr Reynolds, then the NDP will squeak up the middle. In any case, it will be a close 3 way race. One to watch on election night.
12 05 05 Harry
Liberals will win because old Reform vote on the Sunshine Coast will go NDP and more NDP vote will go Green, and the Liberals will creep up the middle with solid showing in West Van and Whistler.
07 05 05 BLJ
Surprisingly, the Liberals almost seemed to come out of nowhere and win this seat on election night. OTOH, this riding has strong "blue" Liberal credentials akin to North Vancouver, Vancouver Quadra, Vancouver South, and Richmond - the so-called urban area that was "red" tory under the old PC's and finds the CPC to be perhaps too socially conservative. While I wouldn't have predicted such in 2004, I think this riding can still go either CPC or Liberal.
07 05 05 Aric H
Yes I would say this seat should be too close to call until the time of the election when we know what the stable numbers in BC will be. John Reynolds nearly lost this seat last year and was in fact declared defeated on CBC and it was only the final polls in a certain region of the riding which pulled him back up. If you combine the Liberal, NDP and Green vote you also see how many more people voted for someone other than the Conservatives here. It depends on how the vote splits and what the BC numbers are, but it is possible that the Liberals could take this seat if their numbers do not go down during the election as John Reynolds is not running again and the loss of incumbency may be the final factor to push it away from the Conservatives after nearly losing it last time.
05 05 05 BrianJA
This is one of two ridings where the Green Party is a legitimate threat. It's not as possible for a Green candidate to win here as it is in the other riding, but the "Sunshine Coast" part of this riding is strong Green all the way. The Leader of the BC Greens is running here this time, and she may even win it. If she does, look for the Green vote to skyrocket. But this riding will not go Green as long as the name still has "West Vancouver" in it. West Vancouver is the place of large estates and lots of tourism. The people come out in droves to vote for an MP that will keep their seven-figure incomes safe. That MP will be Conservative, or potentially a right-leaning Liberal. The Liberals could take this riding, if they have even a half-decent slice of the vote in British Columbia, especially with Reynolds not running again. But, alas, they are mired in scandal and the NDP have a better shot here than they do(and the NDP have zero shot here). Prediction: Conservative hold with a majority vote.
04 05 05 koby
Blair Wilson won West Vancouver. What put Reynolds back in was Powell River. The filthy rich vote Democrat in the States and are starting to vote Liberal here. As Harper said in policy paper, what separates the conservatives from liberals is not economics anymore, but rather social issues. “In this environment, serious conservative parties simply cannot shy away from values questions. On a wide range of public-policy questions, including foreign affairs and defence, criminal justice and corrections, family and child care, and healthcare and social services, social values are increasingly the really big issues.
Take taxation, for example. There are real limits to tax-cutting if conservatives cannot dispute anything about how or why a government actually does what it does. If conservatives accept all legislated social liberalism with balanced budgets and corporate grants - as do some in the business community - then there really are no differences between a conservative and a Paul Martin.” In that same paper Harper called for conservatives to embrace a social conservative “agenda” in manner reminiscent of what Rove and Bush have done in the US. Such a plan is anathema to many in West Vancouver and to most in very socially liberal Whistler. This group was delighted to see an article in the New Yorker, “Northern Light”, lauding Canada for embracing Gay marriage and marijuana decriminalization. “Good old Canada. It’s the kind of country that makes you proud to be a North American.” It gives them the creeps any time some Republican or Conservative politician promises to “protect” marriage and they are certainly loath to vote for a party Bill O’Reilly hopes will win this election. Add to this the fact that Blair Wilson looks like JKF and fact that Powell River will go back to voting NDP and the Liberals will win in a squeaker.
03 05 05 A. Vancouverite
Actually while I don't like John Reynolds, found him thoroughly annoying, knew he was wrong on most anything and everything (including ideological beliefs) -- he has been consistently elected to various positions. He was once a minister in the Socred government so clearly he had some ability, as deemed by some people, heck he is the Conservative campaign co-chair. One of the reasons he almost lost was that he was campaigning in Ontario three days a week apparently thinking he had the riding sown up. Which indicated his arrogance, something I wasn't a fan of. Anyhow with all of this in mind he has quite the high profile and long electoral history so it's unlikely the Conservatives will nominate someone with quite as high a profile as he had. So while the Liberals will most likely be down, it's possible they could pick this riding up.
However; you people aren't very intelligent to discount the effect of the NDP. I'm not going to assume or even predict they'd win it, they'd need a perfect storm including a thoroughly dominate performance outside of West Van, perfect vote splitting between the Conservatives and Liberals and hope for a Dennis Perry like Green candidate -- but that's just the point. If the NDP (and Greens) can pick up enough voters from people who'd normally vote or consider the Liberals on the Sunshine Coast, and to a lesser extent in the Sea to Sky area, then they could prevent the Liberals from being able to win -- even with a Conservative drop in votes.
02 05 05 Mike
No way. There's zero chance that this is going Liberal (as much as I'd like to see it that way). This is one of those ridings where people may be relatively socially progressive, but they're filthy rich (I believe that West Vancouver is the wealthiest municipality per capita in Canada)...God forbid the State takes away anything MORE in taxes.
This riding has gone PC/Reform/CA/CPC for over thirty years. I don't see it changing. It's true that the past election was close, but there's no way they're gonna win it this time with the sponsorship scandal in the minds of electors.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
John Reynolds was a horrible MP so if anything he hurt the party more than helped them in the riding. Also the Liberal-NDP deal probably won't help either since this is a centre-right riding that doesn't support the hardline former Reform/Alliance/Republican policies but the centre-right PCs or BC Liberals. Paul Martin was generally viewed as a compotent fiscal manager by most fiscal conservatives, but that may change with his deal with Jack Layton. Nevertheless I think a liberal win is stil very possible since we are just coming off a provincial election where the BC Liberals are expected to massively win both West Vancouver ridings and since about 5% of the population cannot tell the different between the two, that might be enough to swing those 5% over to the liberals federally.
02 05 05 Travis
With the biggest corruption scandal in Canadian history facing the Liberal government I can't see them picking up this riding, even though it was close last election. The race will be closer than last years election now that John Reynolds is not running, but I can't see the voters of West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country voting Liberal this time around. This will be a close race, but it will be once again a Conservative win on election night.
26 04 05 JC
Reynolds is gone and the Liberals are going to take this one, But it will be a very close race here.

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